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It is Wednesday, August 10th, 2022, and we are back with another set of MLB picks for this nine-game slate starting at 7:05 pm Eastern time.
This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: CHW -135
CHW: Johnny Cueto | KC: Kris Bubic
In Kansas City, we have a battle here between these starting pitchers. Johnny Cueto has a 2.91 ERA but a 4.26 xFIP and 4.40 SIERA. Kris Bubic has a 5.27 ERA with a 4.55 xFIP and 4.81 SIERA. Cueto has been pitching a little over his head with his low 2.91 ERA compared to his xFIP and SIERA while Kris Bubic is just not effective whether you are looking at his ERA, xFIP, or SIERA.
The White Sox have been great against left-handed pitching. They are third in OBP (.335), tied for 15th in ISO (.188), and have a wRC+ of 116 (5th) against left-handed pitching.
The Royals have not been great against any kind of pitching really. They are 24th in OBP (.303), 26th in ISO (.132), and have a wRC+ of 91 against right-handed pitching.
The bullpens are not amazing for these teams either. The Royals have a 4.56 bullpen ERA (3rd-worst) and a 4.52 bullpen xFIP (worst). The White Sox have a 3.86 bullpen ERA (14th best) and a 3.76 bullpen xFIP (tied for 10th best).
The Royals should score at least a couple of runs. The question to ask, is can the White Sox score six runs in this game? Given they are facing such a bad pitcher, and the fact they have had more success against left-handed pitchers, I say they can.
I like the over and don't mind the juice.
Pick: OVER 8.5 Runs (-120), BetMGM Sportsbook, 0.5 Units
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Dodgers
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: LAD -145
MIN: Sonny Gray| LAD: Ryan Pepiot
In Los Angeles, Sonny Gray will pitch for the Twins while Ryan Pepiot will pitch for the Dodgers. Gray has a 3.19 ERA, a 3.81 xFIP, and a 3.87 SIERA. He also has a 22.9% strikeout rate, a 7.4% walk rate, for a 15.5 K-BB%.
Ryan Pepiot is a prospect that has gotten some buzz this season. He has a 2.76 ERA, but a 5.18 xFIP, and a 4.90 SIERA. He has a 26.8% strikeout rate but a 16.9% walk rate too. He has only started four games and pitched 16.1 major league innings though.
The Dodgers overall are the better team, there is no question about it. They have a star-studded lineup and also one of the best bullpens in the game. It makes sense they are favored to win as they should be.
Here's the thing though: Gray is the better pitcher at this moment in time. Gray is a veteran who has pitched several seasons in the major leagues, while Pepiot is trying to make a come-up. Although Gray has the bigger challenge of trying to shut down Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and others, he should outpitch Pepiot.
Given the Twins are +145 to have the lead after five innings, I like that pick. Instead of leaving Minnesota's average lineup and average bullpen in the mix hoping they have a good game over the course of nine innings, we put it more in the hands of Gray vs. Pepiot hoping that the Twins can score just one more run than Los Angeles. The Draw is +525 and is worth a small sprinkle too.
Pick: Twins F5 Moneyline (+145), BetRivers Sportsbook, 0.5 Units
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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