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Today is a Sunday, which means we have daytime baseball going on all day today! There is one night game, per usual, which will be the Sunday Night Baseball game between the Padres and Mets in New York with Joe Musgrove and Carlos Carrasco dueling on the mound. I enjoy spending my Sundays with my family and baseball games on mute, following the action casually throughout the day. This article will give a few of my favorite picks for this Sunday, July 24th, 2022.
This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Chicago Cubs @ Philadelphia Phillies
O/U: 10 | Moneyline: PHI -125
CHC: Drew Smyly | PHI: Bailey Falter
Pitcher A has a 4.20 SIERA, 18.3% strikeout rate, 5.6% walk rate, and allows 1.65 HR/9. Pitcher B has a 4.32 SIERA, a 19.2% strikeout rate, a 6.4% walk rate, and allows 1.93 HR/9... which pitcher would you rather have on your team?
It's pretty close, right? Drew Smyly is Pitcher A and Bailey Falter is Pitcher B. They are pretty equal to each other, they are both left-handed, and they both stink, thus the high-run total today.
Against left-handed pitching, the Phillies aren't bad. They are ninth in wRC+ at 112. They are seventh with a .331 OBP and sixth in ISO at .177. The Cubs have a 103 wRC+ (17th) against lefties themselves.
They are 21st with a .314 OBP but are eighth in ISO at .175. Later in the game, when both teams are likely facing right-handed pitching, the Cubs have a wRC+ of 100 while the Phillies have a wRC+ of 98.
This pitching matchup is close and the game is being played in a hitters park, giving me no interest in the run total. I am interested in the whole game Moneyline here with the Cubs having a slight advantage when the game turns over to the bullpen.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline (+100), PointsBet Sportsbook, 0.5 units
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: MIA -165
MIA: Sandy Alcantara | PIT: Mitch Keller
We've got the Miami Marlins and the Pittsburgh Pirates playing at PNC Park this afternoon. Sandy Alcantara is coming into this game with a 1.76 ERA and a 3.30 xFIP. Alcantara goes deep into games, averaging over seven innings per start, and is facing a Pirates team that has an 87 wRC+ against RHP this season, good for 26th in baseball.
On the other side, Mitch Keller takes the mound for the Pirates. He has a 4.55 ERA and 4.02 xFIP, which is average or slightly better than average perhaps.
The issue is the Marlins are not playing well offensively... at all... they came out of the All-Star break losing 8-0 to the Rangers, then beating the Pirates 8-1. Last night they lost to the Pirates, 1-0. Prior to the All-Star break, they lost to the Phillies 2-1, 10-0, and 4-0. They have scored nine runs in their last six games.
We have a game with one really good pitcher, one average pitcher, and two offenses that are not good. I am interested in the run market in this one. I like under seven runs at the plus money we are being offered. If you take it up to eight runs, you pay some juice but that is also fine with me. I also don't mind a little sprinkle on the F5 Draw at +440 odds.
Pick: UNDER 7.0 Runs (+105), BetMGM Sportsbook, 0.5 units; Draw (F5) (+440), BetRivers Sportsbook, 0.2 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: LAD -215
SF: Alex Cobb | LAD: Clayton Kershaw
When I glanced over this line, I was surprised to see the odds at -215 for the Dodgers. In a rivalry series where the games have been close, we believe the Dodgers have a nearly 70% chance of winning this one?
Clayton Kershaw has a 2.98 SIERA, 2.92 xFIP, a 2.13 ERA, and a 22.9% K-BB%. Alex Cobb has a 3.18 SIERA, 2.95 xFIP, a 4.09 ERA, and a 16.1% K-BB%.
If looking at SIERA and xFIP, one would think this could be a pretty close matchup between these two starters. When looking at ERA, Kershaw looks significantly better. Either way one dices it, Kershaw does have the advantage and is the better pitcher.
I don't really have much outside analysis other than this pitching matchup could be closer than the ERAs indicate and the Giants are in the top-10 in wRC+, OBP, and ISO against LHP.
The Giants have also lost the previous two games in the series as well. Given that I can get the Giants at +188 (35%) for a game that they are maybe a 40% underdog in, in my mind, gives some value to the bet.
Pick: Giants Moneyline (+188), FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.5 units;
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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