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Happy Friday, RotoBallers! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, June 3, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 27-31-1, -9.58 units
- Sides: 20-20, -7.59 units
- Totals: 6-11-1, -3.69 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Giants @ Marlins
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: MIA +138
SF: Alex Cobb | MIA: Elieser Hernandez
I'll head down to Miami for our first play of the day as the Giants and Marlins battle it out once again after Sandy Alcantara dominated yesterday en route to a 3-0 Marlins victory. We'll be looking at the Giants to bounce back this evening, backing Alex Cobb (3-2, 5.73 ERA) against Elieser Hernandez (2-5, 5.77 ERA).
On the surface, this looks like a poor starter vs. a poor starter matchup. However, if we looked deeper that's not necessarily the case. While Hernandez's 4.84 xFIP does show that we should expect positive regression, he's still allowing a 31.9% hard contact rate while only striking out 20.6% of hitters. On the other hand, Alex Cobb has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball, coming into this one with a 2.35 xFIP, while allowing just 23.8% hard contact and striking out 28.7% of hitters.
Fanduel Sportsbook is giving the Giants a bit juiced odds at -170 in the first five innings of tonight's game. We should get some CLV here though, as I can only see this number going up. Joc Pederson, Mike Yastrzemski, and Wilmer Flores have started to catch fire, they just ran into the hot arm of Alcantara last night. The Marlins have lost five consecutive Elieser Hernandez outings, and despite Cobb's poor luck this season, the Giants have won three of his last four starts. I'll play it safe with the first five, given the Giants' bullpens struggles to start the year.
Pick: Giants F5 Money Line (-170) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Red Sox @ Athletics
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: OAK +136
BOS: Nate Eovaldi | OAK: James Kaprielian
We'll head out to Coliseum for our second play of the evening as the Red Sox and Athletics open up their weekend series. Both of these teams had off days yesterday but surely had very different off-days. The A's stayed right at home while Boston traveled coast-to-coast in preparation for the weekend. Nevertheless, I'll be backing Red Sox hurler Nate Eovaldi (2-2, 3.77 ERA) against a struggling James Kaprielian (0-2, 5.93 ERA).
Nathan Eovaldi has been an interesting case this season. While his 3.14 xFIP shows he should expect some positive regression, that's somewhat masked by a 5.24 FIP and 40.4% hard contact rate allowed. He's keeping the ball on the ground though, at 45.5%, as well as striking out 25.1% of hitters. Kaprielian comes into this one with a 4.94 xFIP, 29.4% hard contact rate, but only strikes out 17.8% of batters he faces. My model gives Eovaldi the advantage here though, projecting a 3.11 xFIP for Nasty Nate and a 4.83 xFIP for Kaprielian.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the F5 money line at -160, which is actually better odds than the full game money line (-162). While neither of these starters has been impressive of late, both offenses have been doing a decent job at giving them run support. Something has to give here, so I'll back the Sox to take advantage of a struggling Kaprielian and build an early lead, perhaps en route to a fifth straight win following an off day.
Pick: Red Sox F5 Money Line (-160) FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.5 units
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!
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