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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 6/16/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Happy Friday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. Let's hope that postseason success rolls into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, June 16, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 35-25-2 (+3.22 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Yankees @ Red Sox
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: BOS -110
NYY: Domingo German | BOS: Tanner Houck
I'll start out in Boston as "the rivalry" opens up for another weekend series. These teams have so much history, and while neither team is performing at their highest level this season, this should still be a fun series.
The Yankees will send Domingo German (4-3, 3.49 ERA) to the mound. According to his Fangraphs page, his 4.29 xERA and 4.15 xFIP show that he has been good, but also a bit lucky. He projects to a 4.17 SIERA in this one against a Red Sox lineup that ranks 13th in wOBA (102) and top ten in wOBA (.327) against righties. They project to a .323 wOBA in this one.
On the other hand, the Red Sox will send Tanner Houck (3-6, 5.23 ERA) to the mound. On the contrary to German, Houck has been unlucky, given his 3.86 xERA and 3.71 xFIP. My model has him projected for a 3.82 SIERA in this one against a Yankees offense that ranks 19th in wOBA (.309) and 17th in wRC+ (96). My model has Houck silencing the Yankees offense in this one, projecting them to just a .272 wOBA here.
I really like Houck and the Red Sox in this spot. The Yankees do have a slight bullpen advantage here, so I'll back the Sox on the first five money line, which we can get at -128 on FanDuel.
Pick: Red Sox F5 Money Line (-128), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.28 units to win 1 unit.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Cardinals @ Mets
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: NYM +100
STL: Miles Mikolas | NYM: Tylor Megill
I guess I'm fully anti-New York tonight, as I'll be taking a look at the Cardinals here, who step into Queens to take on the struggling Mets.
St. Louis will send Miles Mikolas (4-3, 4.02 ERA) to the mound. Mikolas, who struggled in his last outing against the Reds (6IP, 7H, 4ER), brings in a 4.87 ERA and 4.31 xFIP into this matchup. He projects to a 4.47 SIERA against the Mets tonight, who projects to a decent .316 wOBA against the righty. They come in ranked 17th in wOBA (.313) and 14th in wRC+ (101).
The Mets will send Tylor Megill (5-4, 5.14 ERA) to the mound tonight. While Mikolas got roughed up last time out, Megill was far worse. He allowed seven earned runs in just 3.2 innings last Friday against the Pirates. With that said, Megill projects to a rather poor 5.32 SIERA here, against a Cardinals lineup that projects to a .354 wOBA against him here. St. Louis ranks seventh in wRC+ (107), and 11th in wOBA (.325).
The bullpens are rather equal, so I'll eat a couple of cents here to grab the first five money line, which we can get at -118 on FanDuel. I feel like it's a coin flip whenever Megill takes the mound, but given the Mets poor form, I'll back the Cards here.
Pick: Cardinals F5 Moneyline (-118), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.18 units to win 1 unit.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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