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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 6/10/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Friday, RotoBallers! The weekend is finally here. We got cold on Sunday, dropping both of our F5 plays, but will look to bounce back here in what should be a great weekend of baseball. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, June 10, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 30-34-1, -10.27 units
- Sides: 23-23, -8.28 units
- Totals: 6-11-1, -3.69 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Brewers @ Nationals
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: WSH +146
MIL: Aaron Ashby | WSH: Erick Fedde
I'll head out to the nation's capital for our first play of the day as the Milwaukee Brewers head into town fresh off of getting swept by Philadelphia. The Brewers have struggled of late, dropping eight of the last ten, including six straight coming into this weekend. However, I'll still be looking to back Aaron Ashby (1-4, 3.13 ERA) against Erick Fedde (3-4, 4.88 ERA).
Despite the poor record, Ashby has been solid for Milwaukee on the year, both as a starter and out of the bullpen. He's allowing just 28.1% hard contact while striking out 30.5% of hitters and is bringing in an xFIP of 2.78, the same number that my model projects him at today. On the other hand, Erick Fedde hasn't been so great. This isn't to say he hasn't been solid, and he is due for some positive regression given his 4.42 xFIP. My model has him pretty close to that number as well, at 4.39 today. However, it also projects Fedde to allow a 32.6% hard contact rate, giving the Brewers a distinct pitching advantage.
Fanduel Sportsbook is giving us the Brewers money line at -174, which is a bit juiced but I do anticipate this line moving as we get closer to the first pitch. The Nationals have lost five of their last six following a loss, as well as dropping five of their last six following a road trip that lasted at least a week. While the Brewers are desperate for a win, they have won four of the last five meetings with the Nats, and even if Fedde pitches well this evening, expect The Crew to feast on the horrid Washington bullpen
Pick: Brewers Money Line (-174) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Marlins @ Astros
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: HOU -148
MIA: Pablo Lopez | HOU: Luis Garcia
We head down to Houston for our second play of the night, as the Miami Marlins head into H-Town for a series set. While the Astros had the day off yesterday, the Marlins finished up their series with the aforementioned Washington Nationals, winning 7-4 before hopping on a plane to Houston. If you love pitching, you should enjoy this matchup as Pablo Lopez (4-2, 2.18 ERA) takes on Luis Garcia (3-4, 3.07 ERA).
Pablo Lopez has been stellar all season long, though he has been overshadowed by fellow Marlin hurler Sandy Alcantara over the past few weeks. Lopez is allowing just 25.4% hard contact, and while he is due for some regression, it isn't much considering his xFIP sitting at just 3.10 coming into this one. Luis Garcia has been a bit luckier, coming into this one with a 4.03 xFIP while allowing 32.7% hard contact. Despite this, I'll be looking at the under in the first five innings this evening.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the F5 under at 4.5 right now, with -136 odds. Under bettors have loved when these two are on the mound this year, especially lately. While the under is just 6-5 in Lopez's starts, it has cashed in two of his last three. On the other hand, the under is 8-2 when Luis Garcia takes the mound for Houston, including each of his last three starts. Runs have been hard to come by in this specific matchup as well, hitting in six of the last seven games these two teams have played in Houston. With injuries to relievers Anthony Bender (back) and Blake Taylor (elbow), as well as Hector Neris's suspension, I'll be leaving the bullpens out of this and relying on these two young horses.
Pick: F5 Under 4.5 (-136) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!
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