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Dan Palyo's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 5/31/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, and other various baseball bets.
It's Wednesday, and that means a good ol' split slate with about half of the MLB games going off this afternoon and another half of them this evening. It's "getaway day" for some of these teams, which means we could see some weird lineups, too. If you get a weird feeling about a game, trust your gut, but I'll be following the data this morning when making my picks for this piece.
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As always, I have some thoughts as to where we should place our money today when it comes to betting on these games. In this article, I'll give you my favorite money lines, game totals, team totals, run lines, F5s - you name it! I have a few I really like here today so let's take a look, shall we?
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Pittsburgh @ San Francisco
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: SFG -125
PIT: Mitch Keller | SFG: Alex Wood
The Pirates and Giants will wrap up their series with an afternoon matinee in the Bay Area (12:45 start on the West Coast!). The Giants thumped my Buccos 14-4 in the opener, but the Pirates bounced back with a tough 2-1 win last night. The rubber match today will feature the Pirates' ace and one of the biggest surprises in MLB this year - Mitch Keller. The Giants will counter with the old reliable lefty Alex Wood, a groundball pitcher.
Mitch Keller, Frisbee 83mph Sweeper. 🥏
19 inches of Horizontal Break. pic.twitter.com/PYYpQjGdRi
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 27, 2023
It's hard to say which pitcher has the better matchup because both guys get the opposing offense on the better side of their splits. The Giants have a slightly better offense, but Keller rates much higher than Wood in terms of his effectiveness with a 3.13 SIERA compared to Wood's 4.65 mark.
The bullpens are pretty equal, too, so I am basing this pick mainly on the right arm of Mitch Keller. If he can lock down the Giants for 6-7 innings in this one, I think Pittsburgh can scratch out enough offense to back him and the bullpen showed last night then can protect a close lead. Give me the Bucs here at plus odds.
Pick: PIT ML (+105, DK Sportsbook)
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Philadelphia @ NY Mets
O/U: 9| Moneyline: PHI -120
PHI: Aaron Nola| NYM: Carlos Carrasco
We are riding another Pennsylvania team here today as I really like this matchup for the fightin' Phils in Queens. Aaron Nola hasn't been the dominant version of himself that we have been used to over the years, but he's still pitching effectively and sports a 4.12 SIERA. His strikeout numbers are down, but he's been battling - pitching 6+ innings in eight straight starts. He's historically pitched well against the Mets, too, and I think he can hold this New York offense in check as the Mets have been pretty mediocre this season against RHP.
The starting pitching advantage is definitely on Philly's side in my opinion as the Mets look to Cookie Carrasco on the bump. He missed a month of action but has made two starts since returning to the rotation. His overall numbers look bad as he's coming into this game with a 5.69 SIERA, only a 13% strikeout rate, and a bloated 10.5% walk rate.
I simply don't trust the Phillies bullpen right now, so I am going to make this an F5 bet. We lose some odds when we do that as the book is giving us only -145 instead of -120, but we also increase our chances of hitting substantially in my opinion as Nola is usually at his best the first couple of times through the order but has been touched up the third time through and the Philly bullpen as I mentioned is a bit shaky at times.
Pick: Phillies F5 ML (-145, DK Sportsbook)
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