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Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, which opens up tonight. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. Let's hope that postseason success rolls into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, May 28, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 28-20 (+2.26 units)
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - White Sox @ Tigers
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: BAL -130
CWS: Dylan Cease | DET: Eduardo Rodriguez
We've been on a bit of a heater this week, so I'll look to end the week strong. We'll start out in Detroit as the White Sox and Tigers wrap up their weekend series.
I'll take a look at a first-inning under here, as the White Sox will be sending Dylan Cease (3-3, 4.60 ERA) to the mound. Cease has regressed from his 2022 form, adjusting to the "new game" of baseball as most pitchers are through the first third-ish of the season. He's allowed a run in two of five road starts, but those two instances are the only times he's allowed a first-inning tally in 2023 (11 starts).
On the other hand, the Tigers will send Eduardo Rodriguez to the mound. E-Rod (4-4, 2.19 ERA) has been excellent this season quite frankly. While he does show signs of regression, I believe it's more of a "well it can't get any better" type of situation. His impressive 2023 to this point has shown in the first inning as well, as he's gone without allowing a run in each of his 10 starts to this point.
The first inning under is a bit juiced in this one, at -136 on FanDuel. To be truthful, I think it should be a bit higher, and my model agrees. With a 64.41% chance of hitting, or implied odds of -181, I think we're getting really solid value on here, and could be a quick hitter to jumpstart our Sunday.
Pick: First-Innings Under 0.5 Runs (-136), DraftKings Sportsbook, 1.36 units to win 1 unit.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Phillies @ Braves
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: ATL -265
PHI: Dylan Covey | ATL: Spencer Strider
As a Phillies fan myself, I can appreciate what they're doing out in Atlanta this weekend. They've played tough, and have been able to take two out of the first three games with the series-ender taking place on Sunday Night Baseball tonight.
Unfortunately for the Phillies, they'll be in quite the pitching mismatch tonight. They'll send newcomer Dylan Covey (0-0, 3.00 ERA) to the mound for his second start, or should I say appearance, for them. Covey was impressive in his first outing, following Matt Strahm en route to five innings of one-run ball, striking out six and walking just one. He projects to a respectable 3.30 SIERA in this one but will have his hands full against an elite Braves lineup that projects to a massive 43.92% hard contact rate.
The Braves themselves will send Spencer Strider to the mound. Strider (4-2, 2.97 ERA) has been even better than his numbers show, which is accentuated by his 2.61 xERA and 2.62 xFIP, as shown by Fangraphs. He projects to a 2.60 SIERA and a whopping 38.6% hard contact rate tonight. If the Phillies are consistent in one thing, they strike out a TON. This will play right into Strider's hands as he looks to get revenge from Game 3 of the 2022 NLDS.
As I mentioned above, a split here for the Phillies is satisfactory given how poorly they've played so far into the season. While my heart wants to buy in, hoping they gut one out and steal three of four down in Atlanta, my brain realizes that it's much more likely we'll see a laugher on Sunday Night Baseball. We can grab the Braves -1.5 at -134 on FanDuel, and that's exactly what I'll be doing here.
Pick: Braves (-134), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.34 units to win 1 unit.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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