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Casey Wilson's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 5/16/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
We have a fun little slate here today in what looks to be filled with a lot of offense. Today I will provide two game total over and under bets and an alternate team total parlay. We went three for three last week in this article doing the same thing, so we will stick with that same gameplan today. Make sure you check out our player prop betting article that was posted earlier today as well, and let's crush today.
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I do not have a model with my bets, but I dig into many numbers daily to find separations or mismatches with the bets I recommend. I also doubt anyone out there watches as much baseball as I do, and the game's feel is a massive part of my picks. In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Tuesday, May 16, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games. Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Diamondbacks @ Athletics
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: OAK +125
ARZ: Tommy Henry | OAK: Kyle Muller
We start tonight with a matchup between two struggling pitchers, Tommy Henry, and Kyle Muller.
Henry has a 6.24 SIERA, 4.43 ERA, 9.7% K, and a 9.7% BB. Henry has given up at least two runs in each start this season. Oakland has been a very sneaky team this year against left-hand pitching. They own a 112 wRC+, suitable for ninth-best in baseball. They have a .326 wOBA and a .420 SLG. They can roll out nine right-hand bats against lefties led by Brent Rooker. Rooker has a .464 wOBA and a .410 ISO against left-hand pitching this season. Arizona's bullpen has a 4.48 xFIP with a 1.29 HR/9, which is also bottom ten in baseball. I expect Oakland to score some runs here tonight.
Kyle Muller has been just as bad as Henry this year, posting a 5.59 SIERA, 7.34 ERA, 14.6% K, and 11.4% BB. Arizona has not been as good against lefties as Oakland, but they are still league-average. They have a 98 wRC+, .320 wOBA, and a .412 SLG. The A's bullpen, though, has been by far and away the worst in baseball. They own a 6.02 xFIP and a 1.49 HR/9. Arizona can score runs off Muller and this dreadful A's bullpen.
Both sides of this game are in some of the best-hitting spots on the slate. Although the ballpark isn't built for bats, these arms and bullpens will make it easy to score runs. The over at nine is too low, so that is where we will attack. I love the first five overs and the Oaklands team total, but because the bullpens are just as bad as the starters, let's give as many opportunities as possible to get there.
Pick: Game total over 9 runs (-120) DraftKings Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Guardians @ White Sox
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: CLE -130
CLE: Shane Bieber | CWS: Lance Lynn
The Guardians will travel to Guaranteed Rate Field to face the White Sox in an AL Central matchup. Guardians ace Shane Bieber will toe the rubber against Lance Lynn.
Lynn has been getting a bit unlucky early in the season. He has a 3.88 SIERA, 7.51 ERA, 26.9% K, and a 8.5% BB. Looking at the difference between SIERRA and ERA, some positive regression is coming soon for Lynn. The Guardians are fourth worst in baseball with a 78 wRC+ against right-hand pitching. They own a .285 wOBA, and a .339 SLG, both the worst in baseball. I worry a bit because of the struggling White Sox bullpen, but I don't see the Guardians scoring many runs here.
On the other side of this game, Bieber has continued to do Shane Bieber things. He has a 4.38 SIERA, 2.61 ERA, 18.8% K and a 6.3% BB. The White Sox, like the Guardians, are in the bottom ten in baseball against right-hand pitching. They own an 84 wRC+, a .293 wOBA, and a .378 SLG. Bieber has dominated this team with an 8-4 record and a 2.64 ERA. I don't see that changing today.
Pick: Game total under 8 runs (-105) DraftKings Sportsbook
I have been making teasers with alternate run lines recently inspired by my guy Thunder Dan, and I have been very successful. Here is what I'm going with today. DraftKings and FanDuel do not have the option to do this, so it has to be on Bet MGM.
Pick: Athletics O2.5 Rs + Padres O2.5 Rs + Dodgers O2.5 Rs (+114) Bet MGM Sportsbook
Good luck, Rotoballers!
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