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Casey Wilson's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 4/18/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
We have 17 games on tap for today's baseball slate, including doubleheaders between the Phillies and the White Sox and Guardians and Tigers after yesterday's postponements. Weather will be another primary concern today as we have cold temps across the country and some rain to worry about again. We all know how much weather impacts these games, so we must know temperatures, wind directions, and if the rain will affect pitchers' innings. Today we will focus on my two favorite bets for teams across the 17 games today.
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I do not have a model with my bets, but I dig into many numbers daily to find separations or mismatches with the bets I recommend. I also doubt anyone out there watches as much baseball as I do, and the game's feel is a massive part of my picks. In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Tuesday, April 18, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games. Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Diamondbacks @ Cardinals
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: STL -205
ARZ: Drey Jameson | STL: Jordan Montgomery
Drey Jameson toes the rubber against Jordan Montgomery in a matchup of two underrated arms. Montgomery enters today, making his fourth start of the season. He possesses a 2.45 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP through his first three starts. Cardinal's opponents have scored a total of nine runs in games that Montgomery has started. His opponent Drey Jameson will be making the second start of his big league career after pitching out of the bullpen in his first three appearances this season. Jameson has a 1.46 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP to open up his 2023 campaign. He didn't allow a run in his first start, and the opposing offense only scored three total runs the entire game.
The Diamondbacks and Cardinals are scuffling a bit offensively in the early parts of this season as the D-Backs have scored 69 total runs, and the Cardinals have scored 67 runs, both good for the bottom ten in baseball. They are both bottom ten in isolated power and the league's bottom half in total home runs. Avoiding the long ball goes a long way when betting the under, especially with two pitchers who tend to avoid giving up free bases. Add in the game being played in Busch Stadium, the fourth most pitcher-friendly park, and the weather will be in the low 40s, which is not ideal hitting weather.
Pick: Total runs under 8 (-110) DraftKings Sportsbook, 2 units to win 1.8 units
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Blue Jays @ Astros
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: HOU -110
TOR: Chris Bassitt| HOU: Jose Urquidy
We have your standard pick 'em game between the Astros and Blue Jays. Chris Bassitt has been getting smacked around in early 2023, as he has a 7.63 ERA, 2.93 HR/9 with a 34.7% hard hit. His counterpart Jose Urquidy has been the exact opposite, as he has a 2.35 ERA, 1.17 HR/9, and a minuscule 25.5% hard hit.
Both of these teams on the offensive side of the ball have been about dead even as the Astros have scored 77 runs on 16 home runs, and the Blue Jays have scored 80 runs on 16 home runs. If we sort it by the first five innings, both teams have scored 38 runs. When two offenses like this are at a deadlock, and a pitching matchup is heavily skewed towards one team, I love attacking the first five-inning spreads as we can eliminate late-inning rallies. The Astros should come out hot against Bassit and take an early lead. Let's hope Urquidy can continue his early season success and bring us home for a first five bet.
Pick: Houston Astros first five innings money line (-104) Fanduel Sportsbook
Good luck, Rotoballers!
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