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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 10/5/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Wednesday, RotoBallers! We're back for the final day of MLB betting picks, at least for the regular season! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Wednesday, October 5, 2022.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 81-82-2, -20.21 units
- Sides: 37-37-1, -12.62 units
- Totals: 43-45-1, -9.17 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Angels @ Athletics
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: OAK +210
LAA: Shohei Ohtani | OAK: Ken Waldichuk
Well, folks, we've finally reached the summit of the 2022 season. While it certainly hasn't been the greatest season for me in terms of picks in these articles, it has been an overall profitable season on my end, and a fun one at that. We finished yesterday 2-0, so let's see what we can do today.
We'll start off out in Oakland, where we'll see two teams whose seasons have been over for quite some time. We'll be looking at an F5 run line play here, though, backing Angels starter Shohei Ohtani. Ohtani (15-8, 2.35 ERA) will look to finish his fantastic season on a high note. We backed Ohtani in an F5 play just a bit ago against the Athletics, which worked in our favor. We'll look for him to do the same against a team he's dominated all season.
The Athletics will be sending southpaw Ken Waldichuk (1-2, 6.18 ERA) to the mound today. It'll be his first start against the Angels this season, but I'm not really expecting much from him this afternoon. As a matter for fact, I have the Angels taking it to him, with a projected .517 wOBA + ISO and a 35.28% hard contact rate.
FanDuel Sportsbook currently has the Angels F5 -0.5 at just -140, which I consider good value seeing that they're -255 on the full game money line and -230 on the F5 money line. The Angels are 2-1 on F5 run lines when Ohtani pitches against the Athletics this year, so we'll take our chances
Pick: Angels F5 -0.5 (-150) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Diamondbacks @ Brewers
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: MIL -178
ARI: Merrill Kelly | MIL: Corbin Burnes
I'll head out to Milwaukee for the second play of the day, another first-inning under. We ran this play last night and it worked out, although I did find it a bit funny that after the Brewers had been eliminated they were able to get to Zac Gallen, one of the best pitchers in the NL. Nevertheless, we'll take a look at the first inning under once again.
The visiting Diamondbacks will send Merrill Kelly (13-8, 3.43 ERA) to the mound this afternoon. Kelly has been awesome for the Dbacks this season and has been pretty darn good in the first inning as well. He's allowed a first-inning tally in just four of 15 starts on the road, and in 10 of 32 starts overall. He started against the Brewers back on September 1, where he tossed seven scoreless innings while striking out seven.
On the other hand, the Brewers will be sending Corbin Burnes (12-8, 2.98 ERA) to the mound. It'll be the third consecutive start that we'll be backing Burnes on the first inning under, and for good reason. He's allowed a first-inning run in just one of 17 starts at home this season, and in just four of 31 starts overall. He did allow a run in the first in his lone start against Arizona this season, but we'll look for him to end his 2022 campaign on a positive note today.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the first inning under at -148, a reasonable price for a game that has a total of just 7. My model gives the under a 61.09% chance of hitting, good for "true" odds of -157. I appreciate you all sticking with me for the entirety of the 2022 season, though all of the ups and downs. We're onward to the playoffs!
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-148) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. Talk to you tomorrow!
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