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James Ayello looks at five MLB pitchers to target in his fantasy baseball draft strategy for QS (quality start) leagues. These pitchers are potential fantasy bargains.
As in previous posts of this nature, I’m not here to advocate one scoring format or another. I won’t tell you to switch to a quality starts league because they are a better representation of a pitcher’s skills than are wins. (Though you should, because they are.)
My mission here simply is to arm those of you in QS leagues with a few players who don’t go by the name Zack Greinke or David Price, because, well, duh. So, let’s start here: Last season, only 28 players collected 20 or more quality starts, the lowest total since 2008.
Why? My best guess is that injuries, pitch counts and the continued specialization of pitching staffs each played a significant role in making pitchers to carry your team in quality starts more difficult than it's been in seven years.
Finding some under-the-radar pitchers to help you in that category, without sinking you in others — sorry, Mr. Buehrle — has become the name of the game. In this space, we'll cover five players who, while not fantasy aces, could prove a boon to you in leagues counting quality starts.
And because we can’t forget about other stats, here’s the criteria we'll use: In 2015, the pitcher cannot have had an ERA above 4.00 or below 3.00, a K/9 below 7.00 or above 9.00, or a WHIP worse than 1.30 or better than 1.10. Oh, and he must also have totaled 20 or more quality starts. Hopefully these parameters will help us find some excellent values for your QS league.
Quality Starters
Jose Quintana, SP, Chicago White Sox
2015: 206.1 IP, 3.36 ERA, 1.27 WHIP,7.72 K/9, 25 QS
Few players are elite quality starts producers without being elite pitchers. Quintana is one of this rare breed. Over the past two seasons, Quintana has racked up more quality starts (46) than consensus top three pitcher and fellow South Side southpaw Chris Sale (45). But Sale has missed time, you say. That’s not a fair comparison. True. Would Jon Lester be more suitable? Good. Because his North Side brethren has just two more quality starts than Quintana, yet is being drafted more than 100 spots higher, according to their NFBC ADP. This by the way, despite Quintana being five years younger, owning a lower career ERA (3.46 to 3.55) identical WHIP (1.26) and having, like Lester, pitched 200-plus innings for three straight years. But I digress.
Admittedly, Quintana’s lack of punchouts hurts his fantasy value. Still, just below 8 K/9 is nothing to scoff at. I’m not advocating you make Quintana your staff ace or even No. 2 starter. But I am saying Quintana is an elite producer of quality starts, and because it comes with a tolerable number of strikeouts and an adequate WHIP, he’s a top-notch No. 3 in QS leagues.
Garrett Richards, SP, Los Angeles Angels
2015: 207.1 IP, 3.65 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, 24 QS
Go ahead and punish the guy for losing a whole strikeout off his 2014 K/9 (8.8). Seriously, I understand why he’s being taken 29th among starting pitchers right now. However, if you’re going to knock him, bear in mind that he fought through an awful knee injury to post some pretty sturdy numbers. And also take time to appreciate that over the past two seasons, he converted 43 of his 58 starts into quality starts (.74 QS%), which ranks among the top 15 in the league over that time period. In a QS league, I’m ecstatic if I’m getting Richards as my No. 3, because among the other options around him, he delivers one of the highest floors while providing recent evidence of a low-end No. 1 ceiling.
Jordan Zimmermann, SP, Detroit Tigers
2015: 201.2 IP, 3.66 ERA, 1.205 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, 22 QS
Zimmerman has been the poster boy for this group for a while now (and probably has passed the torch to Sonny Gray). He isn’t overwhelming, but he is … here comes that most loathed pejorative … effective. And has been for a while. Zimmerman has averaged 22.75 quality starts over the past four years with a K/9 that peaked at 8.2 in 2014. That was a mirage. Last year, that number regressed to around career norms (7.3), which is probably what his owners in 2016 can expect. While not sexy, Zimmerman’s consistent delivery of quality starts paired with outstanding command — his K/BB have ranked among the top 25 starting pitchers for the past three seasons — should provide owners plenty of incentive to make him a No. 3 on their staffs in quality starts leagues.
Collin McHugh, SP, Houston Astros
2015: 203.2 IP, 3.89 ERA, 1.277 WHIP, 7.56 K/9, 21 QS
Like Richards, McHugh presents owners with a sturdy floor with a nice ceiling all for a low, low price (NFBC ADP of 51 among SPs). Let’s start with the floor. In the past two seasons, he’s turned in 37 quality outings in 57 starts, close to two out of every three. His unsightly ERA in 2015 was countered by a much friendlier 3.58 FIP, and was bloated by a .310 BABIP, which made him the third unluckiest 200-inning pitcher in the the league (behind Quintana and Sale). Now, onto the ceiling. McHugh was the talk of the town in 2014, coming out of nowhere to post a 9.14 K/9 in 150-plus innings with the Astros. The drop to 7.56 last season surely stung some last season, but keep in mind a couple things when heading in drafts and auctions: One, McHugh ratcheted those K/9 up to a solid 8.0 in the second half last season. Two, he got the home runs under control. After allowing 14 in the first half, he surrendered just nine in the second. We might never see 2014 McHugh again, but a 3.5 ERA with a 8.0 K/9 has plenty of value.
Julio Teheran, SP, Atlanta Braves
2015: 200.2 IP, 4.04 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 7.67 K/9, 20 quality starts
I’m breaking my own rules here‚ twice actually with the ERA and WHIP both slightly above my proposed limits. Take it easy on me, OK. It was more difficult than you’d think finding guys who fit this criteria. Plus, I think you’re going to be happy with me for bringing up Teheran. I hope. … Despite massive struggles against lefties and with keeping the ball in the park, the Braves right-hander still managed his second straight 20-quality start season, giving him a two-year run of 45. Still only 25-years-old, Teheran is learning on the fly, and I think his second half improvements last year make that case. After getting out to awful start (4.56 ERA) His K/9 jumped from 7.1 to 8.3, while hitters lost nearly 100 points in OPS against him. Fantasy owners who buy into the second-half resurgence have a good chance of getting the 2014 version of Teheran (2.89 ERA, 1.081 WHIP, 7.6 K/9) — or close to him — while paying a rock-bottom price (NFBC ADP: 50 among starters).
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