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The first two articles in this series focused on the offseason's quarterback and running-back winners. This series has focused more on quick-hitting analysis than in-depth statistical breakdowns; that trend will continue here with the receiver group. With the increasing popularity of three-receiver sets and higher passing volume in the NFL, the receiver position has a plethora of offseason winners, and we’ll try to touch on as many as possible.
Has the player’s quarterback play or coaching improved? Or has their opportunity for targets and playing time increased? Sometimes, for rookies, it can be landing in the right spot. These elements play a role in determining which player's values increased this offseason.
We have a ton of receivers to get through here, so we’re going to get started. Some of these receivers will be short and to the point, but all these players have seen their values rise throughout the offseason. With fantasy football right around the corner, use promo code "BOOM" to get a 10% discount on all our premium tools.
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Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions
The Lions let Josh Reynolds walk in free agency. He had 64 targets, 40 receptions, 608 yards, and five touchdowns. He also played 70.6% of the offensive snaps. The depth chart behind Williams is barren, consisting of just Kalif Raymond and Donovan Peoples-Jones. It seems as though Williams will finally be utilized as the full-time No. 2 receiver across from Amon-Ra St. Brown. He’s 23 years old, missed most of his first season due to injury, and was suspended due to gambling in Year 2. There’s plenty of potential here, and the Lions seem committed to seeing what it holds.
Starting to get pretty excited about Jameson Williams:
-1st normal offseason of his career
-Josh Reynolds gone
-16.0 aDOT in 2023 (10th)
-14 indoor games
-Year 3 tends to be the WR breakout year pic.twitter.com/zrqjvnSKbM— Adam Pfeifer (@APfeifer24) May 17, 2024
George Pickens and Roman Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers
In four games without Diontae Johnson last season, Pickens saw his full-PPR PPG average balloon from 10.96 with Johnson to 16.58 without him. His targets increased from 5.69 per game to 8.25, and his yards increased from 60.23 to 89.25. With Johnson now in Carolina, Pickens will operate as Pittsburgh’s undisputed No. 1 receiver.
Johnson averaged 6.7 targets, 3.9 receptions, and 55.2 yards per game, which equals 114 targets, 66 receptions, and 938 yards over 17 games. The No. 3 receiver on the depth chart is Van Jefferson. He has just one year in four NFL seasons where he eclipsed 45 targets, 25 receptions, and 370 yards. Wilson will have plenty of opportunity to be the Steelers’ No. 2 receiver.
Pittsburgh added Russell Wilson and Justin Fields to its quarterback room, replacing Kenny Pickett. Here is a comparison of Wilson's and Pickett's stats in 2023:
-
- Yards Per Attempt: 6.9 (RW) vs 6.4 (KP)
- Touchdown Rate: 5.8% (RW) vs 1.9% (KP)
- True Completion Percentage: 73.5% (RW) vs 67.0% (KP)
- Pressure Completion Percentage: 63.6% (RW) vs 53.8% (KP)
- Red Zone Completion Percentage: 62.3% (RW) vs 43.8% (KP)
- Clean Pocket Completion Percentage: 67.6% (RW) vs 64.8% (KP)
- On Target Percentage: 77.9% (RW) vs 71.6% (KP)
- Off Target Percentage: 13.2% (RW) vs 18.4% (KP)
- True Passer Rating: 101.0 (RW) vs 76.7 (KP)
Russell Wilson’s deep-ball (20+ yards) attempt-rate:
13.4% (4th highest among QB’s)
George Pickens’ ADOT:
13.6 (9th highest among WR’s)
A perfect match.
🤝🤝🤝 pic.twitter.com/wLx7lFtdxK
— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) March 11, 2024
Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders
During McLaurin's rookie season, Washington finished with 3,205 passing yards (32nd in the league) and 18 touchdowns (28th). In his second season, Washington finished with 3,465 yards (25th) and 16 touchdowns (28th). In his third season, Washington finished with 3,441 yards (21st) and 21 touchdowns (20th). In his fourth season, Washington finished with 3,472 yards (21st) and 24 touchdowns (16th). In his fifth season, Washington finished with 3,725 yards (18th) and 24 touchdowns (16th).
In five seasons, Washington’s quarterbacks have averaged 3,462 yards and 20.5 touchdowns per season. Washington has the 10th-fewest passing yards since McLaurin’s rookie season and the seventh-fewest passing touchdowns. Enter Jayden Daniels. It is not a stretch to say that Daniels is the most talented (by far) quarterback McLaurin has ever played with.
The depth chart behind McLaurin includes Jahan Dotson (who is on the verge of being a first-round bust), Luke McCaffrey (a third-round rookie), Zach Ertz (who is well past his prime), and Ben Sinnott (a rookie tight end).
Terry McLaurin pic.twitter.com/NXwVSA6Csi
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) May 7, 2024
Brandin Cooks and Jalen Tolbert, Dallas Cowboys
Last season, the Cowboys had 605 targets and finished with 4,660 receiving yards and 36 touchdowns. CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson combined to have 283 targets, 2,510 yards, and 17 touchdowns. All other Cowboys contributed 322 targets, 2,150 yards, and 19 touchdowns. The Cowboys lost Tony Pollard and did not add any pass-catchers or running backs of note this offseason.
Tolbert is a third-year, former third-round pick with 280 yards in his career. Cooks is a 10-year veteran who hasn’t gone over 700 yards since 2021. The competition for either player to become Dak Prescott’s No. 3 target isn’t very strong, but whoever wins that role should have plenty of volume to have a nice season.
Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, and Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills
The Bills have 284 vacated receiver targets, 178 vacated receiver receptions, 2,165 vacated receiver yards, and 17 vacated receiver touchdowns. The Bills also have 30 vacated receiver red-zone targets. Coleman is a high-second-round draft pick competing at receiver with veterans Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir. Samuel has only one season with over 100 targets in seven years and just one season with more than 660 receiving yards. Shakir is a two-year veteran whose best year came last season when he had 45 targets, 39 receptions, and 611 yards. While he was a high-second-round pick, Coleman never had 60 receptions in one season in college and never eclipsed 800 yards in a single season. He’s a raw prospect who may not be ready for a large role in his first season.
Since 2020, Josh Allen has the fifth-highest pass attempts per game, the seventh-highest passing yards, and the fourth-highest passing touchdowns. Over the past four years, the Bills have been one of the league's most successful and pass-heavy offenses.
Coleman has minimal competition for targets. Neither Samuel nor Shakir profiles as a true No. 1 receiver or as a true X receiver, which gives Coleman plenty of opportunity for early success, playing time, and targets. Samuel is the most accomplished receiver out of the three. He could easily become Allen’s preferred option out of the slot. Shakir is younger than Samuel and was ascending in his second season. He has more experience with the Bills offense and Allen than Coleman. He could also become his preferred receiver. This is an ambiguous group of receivers; plenty of value must be had. Fantasy managers should be gambling on Coleman first because of his draft capital, but all are worth shots at their ADP.
Bills have now vacated:
-3353 air yards (most)
-73.3% air yards share (most)
-317 targets (2nd)
-54.7% target share (2nd)
-A whopping 86.3% WR tgt share (most)The Rookie WR(s) they select = the most valuable fantasy "Value Hole(s)" to monitor during 2024 Fantasy Draft
— Wolf of Roto Street (@RotoStreetWolf) April 4, 2024
Malachi Corley, New York Jets
In the past two seasons, the Jets have averaged 614 pass attempts. That’s a ton of volume! Aaron Rodgers will be returning and is healthy. He should give the Jets the best quarterback they’ve had in years. The Jets signed Mike Williams, but he is recovering from a torn ACL and may not be ready to start the season. Corley has a clear pathway to being Rodgers’ No. 3 target-earner, but it’s possible he could finish as high as second. The Jets front office and coaching staff aggressively pursued him in the draft, which is a good sign.
Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker, New England Patriots
While most expect the Patriots offense to be bad, the reality is that we have no idea. These two rookie receivers and rookie quarterback Drake Maye will lead the offense. What if they’re good? Considering their draft capital, it’s possible, maybe even probable, for Maye and Polk.
The Patriots desperately need a No. 1 receiver. Their leading target-earner last season, Demario Douglas, is a sixth-round rookie who is just 5-foot-8 and finished with 79 targets. There is a clear pathway to one of these players being the Patriots' No. 1 receiver. There is little standing in the way of either player earning ample volume as a rookie. Both players are incredibly cheap, and they’re worth the gamble. What if Maye is the next Justin Herbert? It’s a cheap price to find out.
Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
Last season, Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones combined for 200 targets, 110 receptions, 1,337 yards, and 10 touchdowns. Ridley had 26 red-zone targets, which ranked third in the NFL. He also had 13 targets inside the 10-yard line, which ranked fourth. There is ample volume available in the Jacksonville offense and high-value targets.
The team added Gabe Davis, but in four seasons, he has yet to record a single season with 95 targets, 50 receptions, or 850 yards. Christian Kirk and Evan Engram are both primarily utilized underneath as slot receivers. The Jaguars desperately need a true No. 1 receiver. We know that isn’t Davis, Kirk, or Engram. Enter Brian Thomas Jr.
With Doug Pederson Trevor Lawrence is attempting about 39 Passes per game without excluding any of the injury games
Thats 590 atts.
Year 1
Kirk 130 full season
Jones 121 1 game missed
Engram 98 full seasonYear 2
Engram 143 full season
Ridley 136 full season
Kirk 85 5 games…— Jordan Vanek (@JordanVanekDFS) May 5, 2024
Drake London, Atlanta Falcons
Going from Arthur Smith as head coach to Raheem Morris is a major upgrade. Also, getting Zac Robinson, a Sean McVay disciple, as your new offensive coordinator is fantastic. That alone would increase London’s value. These coaching personnel changes should lead to a much more pass-heavy offensive attack.
The second major upgrade is getting Kirk Cousins instead of Desmond Ridder. Below are some stat comparisons of the two:
-
- Deep Ball Completion Percentage: 46.2% (KC) vs 44.4% (DR)
- Pressure Completion Percentage: 60.7% (KC) vs 59.7% (DR)
- Play-Action Completion Percentage: 59.2% (KC) vs 54.1% (DR)
- Clean Pocket Completion Percentage: 72.7% (KC) vs 65.1% (DR)
- Off-Target Percentage: 12.8% (KC) vs 14.7% (DR)
- On-Target Percentage: 82.2% (KC) vs 75.5% (DR)
- True Passer Rating: 105.8 (KC) vs 75.5 (DR)
- Touchdown Rate: 5.8% (KC) vs 3.1% (DR)
The numbers speak for themselves. Don’t be surprised if London finishes as a top-12 receiver.
Drake London had a 23.35% target share last season, but finished with only 110 TGT because the Falcons were a run-heavy O.
Kirk Cousins has averaged about 580 pass attempts per season.
Let's say Cousins: 580 ATT, London: 23 TGT%
That works out to 133 targets.
Wheels up. pic.twitter.com/ZHix5OJtwi
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) May 15, 2024
Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers selected McConkey early in the second round. His target competition will be Joshua Palmer, Quentin Johnston, and D.J. Chark. Johnston had just 67 targets, 38 receptions, 431 yards, and two touchdowns despite Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Joshua Palmer all missing time. Palmer is a three-year veteran who has never eclipsed 775 yards in a season. His highest target total is 107 in a single season. Palmer is a quality No. 3 receiver, but his game is nothing flashy or exciting. Chark hasn’t had more than 525 yards in a season since 2020.
Austin Ekeler is also gone. McConkey has a clear pathway to becoming Justin Herbert’s preferred passing option. Even with Jim Harbaugh and a decreased passing attack, the lack of quality pass-catching options gives McConkey a chance to be a fantasy-relevant receiver in any PPR-scoring league.
“Ladd McConkey is already the Chargers’ best receiver.” - @FieldYates pic.twitter.com/x3yERVhi52
— Establish The Run (@EstablishTheRun) May 14, 2024
Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals
Marquise Brown, Rondale Moore, and Zach Ertz are all gone. They combined to have 206 targets last season. Harrison’s primary competition for targets will be tight end Trey McBride, Zay Jones, and Michael Wilson. Wilson was a third-round rookie last season and finished with 58 targets. In Jones’ eight-year career, he has two seasons with more than 75 targets. Harrison has nothing in the way of him finishing in the top 12 in targets as a rookie. Kyler Murray is another year removed from his torn ACL. The Arizona offense will enter Year 2 under offensive coordinator Drew Petzing.
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