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The tight end position, long held captive by Travis Kelce, has become much more interesting. While the tippy-top production has dipped with Kelce getting just a touch older, the general position is much deeper. Last season gave us breakout performances from Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride, and, to a lesser extent, Dalton Kincaid.
This season, we’ll welcome Brock Bowers, Ben Sinnott, and Ja'Tavion Sanders, all of whom could eventually become fantasy-relevant. Tight end is finally becoming somewhat interesting, with more options than ever before. This offseason also gave us quite a few players whose values increased.
In the final entry in this series, we’ll identify eight tight ends whose values should have increased following the completion of this year’s offseason. Some of these players were in precarious positions whose teams did little to fortify the position or did not bring in any established pass-catchers, giving them ample opportunity for volume. Let’s get started.
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Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
Going from Arthur Smith as head coach to Raheem Morris is a major upgrade. Also, getting Zac Robinson, a Sean McVay disciple, as your new offensive coordinator is fantastic. That alone would increase Pitts' value. These coaching personnel changes should lead to a much more pass-heavy offensive attack. The second major upgrade is getting Kirk Cousins instead of Desmond Ridder. Below are some stat comparisons of the two.
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- Deep Ball Completion Percentage: 46.2% (KC) vs 44.4% (DR)
- Pressure Completion Percentage: 60.7% (KC) vs 59.7% (DR)
- Play-Action Completion Percentage: 59.2% (KC) vs 54.1% (DR)
- Clean Pocket Completion Percentage: 72.7% (KC) vs 65.1% (DR)
- Off-Target Percentage: 12.8% (KC) vs 14.7% (DR)
- On-Target Percentage: 82.2% (KC) vs 75.5% (DR)
- Catchable Pass Rate: 82.3% (KC) vs 71.4% (DR)
- True Passer Rating: 105.8 (KC) vs 75.5 (DR)
- Touchdown Rate: 5.8% (KC) vs 3.1% (DR)
Based on those numbers alone and the incoming increase in pass attempts, don't be surprised if Pitts finishes a top-five tight end this season.
Kyle Pitts must be thinking “this is what a catchable ball looks like?”
Over the last 2 seasons, Pitts has seen a COMBINED 90 catchable targets.
T.J. Hockenson had 99 in 2023 from Kirk Cousins.
Pitts should put together his best fantasy season in 2024. https://t.co/PxNq35h8nl
— Brandon Murchison (@RotoSuperstar) May 20, 2024
Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers
Freiermuth played in just 12 games last season and was hampered by injuries throughout the year. He had seven games with a snap share below 65% and just three such games in 2022. In 2022, Freiermuth finished with 98 targets (fifth most), 63 receptions (sixth most), and 732 yards (sixth most). Freiermuth also had a 19.0% target share (ninth highest) and a 24.9% target rate (seventh highest). He also had 849 air yards (fourth most) and 403 unrealized air yards (fourth highest). He averaged 1.86 yards per route run (seventh highest), 11.6 yards per reception (13th highest), and 1.35 yards per team pass attempt (ninth highest). Freiermuth was really good in 2022 when George Pickens was just a rookie. Pickens is no longer a rookie, but Diontae Johnson has been traded. This clears the way for Freiermuth to operate as Pittsburgh’s No. 2 target-earner, similar to his role in 2022. The No. 2 receivers behind Pickens are journeyman Van Jefferson and third-round rookie Roman Wilson. The quarterback upgrade is also significant. Russell Wilson is no longer great but is much better than Kenny Pickett. Consider the stats below.
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- Yards Per Attempt: 6.9 (RW) vs 6.4 (KP)
- Touchdown Rate: 5.8% (RW) vs 1.9% (KP)
- True Completion Percentage: 73.5% (RW) vs 67.0% (KP)
- Pressure Completion Percentage: 63.6% (RW) vs 53.8% (KP)
- Red Zone Completion Percentage: 62.3% (RW) vs 43.8% (KP)
- Clean Pocket Completion Percentage: 67.6% (RW) vs 64.8% (KP)
- On Target Percentage: 77.9% (RW) vs 71.6% (KP)
- Off Target Percentage: 13.2% (RW) vs 18.4% (KP)
- True Passer Rating: 101.0 (RW) vs 76.7 (KP)
Freiermuth is one of the best values on the board at the tight end position. Considering the likely improvements on offense and at the quarterback position, don't be surprised if Freiermuth finishes as a top-12 tight end this year.
If I was going to BUY a veteran TE valued outside the Top-12 it would be Pat Freiermuth.
Collegiately-productive (24.8% Dominator Rating), early-declare, RD2 pick.
The only TE’s with more targets through their first 2 NFL seasons are: George Kittle, Jeremy Shockey, Jimmy… pic.twitter.com/ZtcsSCQiPO
— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) May 7, 2024
Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, Trent Sherfield, and Deonte Harty combined for 284 targets, 178 targets, 2,165 yards, and 17 touchdowns. They’re all gone. They’ve since been replaced by second-round rookies Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel. Kincaid finished second on the team last season with 91 targets. He is likely to lead the Bills in targets this season and is Josh Allen’s preferred option in the passing game. Given his status as the team’s No. 1 pass-catcher, Kincaid has the potential to finish as a top-five tight end this season.
𝗗𝗮𝗹𝘁𝗼𝗻 𝗞𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗮𝗶𝗱 as a 𝗥𝗢𝗢𝗞𝗜𝗘:
➖𝗠𝗢𝗥𝗘 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗲𝗶𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗬𝗮𝗿𝗱𝘀 than 𝗞𝘆𝗹𝗲 𝗣𝗶𝘁𝘁𝘀
➖𝗠𝗢𝗥𝗘 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 than 𝗚𝗲𝗼𝗿𝗴𝗲 𝗞𝗶𝘁𝘁𝗹𝗲
➖𝗠𝗢𝗥𝗘 𝗧𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗲𝘁𝘀 than 𝗖𝗼𝗹𝗲 𝗞𝗺𝗲𝘁𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟯 𝗥𝗮𝗻𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀:
➖𝟳𝘁𝗵 in… pic.twitter.com/R1Zhl3sUeH
— Austin Abbott (@AustinAbbottFF) May 19, 2024
Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys
Ferguson finished with 107 targets (seventh most), 71 receptions (ninth most), 761 yards (eighth most), five touchdowns (seventh most), and 25 red-zone targets (most). He had a super fantasy-friendly role last season. Dallas looked like a team that would add a receiver in free agency or the NFL Draft but never did. This ensures that Ferguson’s role as Dak Prescott’s No. 2 option behind CeeDee Lamb is safe. Brandin Cooks hasn’t had more than 700 yards in back-to-back seasons. Jalen Tolbert has under 300 yards in his first two seasons in the NFL combined. With the Cowboys rolling with Rico Dowdle, Ezekiel Elliott, and Deuce Vaughn in their backfield, the Cowboys seem like a great bet to lead the league in passing attempts. Again, there should be ample volume for Ferguson. He’s also a good bet for some positive touchdown progression after finishing with 25 red-zone targets and just five scores.
Buy Low TE Target 🎯Jake Ferguson
Ferguson saw a big increase in production in 2023.
🔹102 Targets (7th)
🔹761 yards (8th)
🔹TE9 finish (PPR)
🔹24 Redzone Targets!! (1st)Dallas revamped that O-Line, lost Gallup, and only added a 6th round WR. Dak will be throwing the ball A… pic.twitter.com/61dWWrtXRd
— Lobo (@LobosFFDen) May 5, 2024
Ben Sinnott, Washington Commanders
Sinnott checks off many boxes we look for in rookie tight ends. He had a 22.5% college dominator, finishing with 73 targets, 49 receptions, 676 yards, and six touchdowns in his final season in college. He has an elite 9.76 RAS and received second-round draft capital. He landed in Washington, where the top tight ends are Zach Ertz (33 years old), John Bates (former fourth-round pick with 500 yards in three seasons), and Cole Turner (former fifth-round pick with 150 yards in two seasons).
Third-year player Jahan Dotson is the No. 2 receiver behind Terry McLaurin. He has yet to record over 50 catches or 525 yards in a single season. Washington is desperate for a dependable No. 2 pass-catcher behind McLaurin. Washington also needs more talent from its starting tight end. Sinnott could start very early with little to no target competition behind McLaurin.
Ben Sinnott checks essentially every box I look for in breakout TE’s.
He was productive in college (22.5% Dominator; 2.00+ YPRR & an 80.0+ PFF Receiving Grade in 2023; led Kansas State in receiving his final season).
He’s athletic (4.68 40, 40” vertical; only TE to weigh 250+… pic.twitter.com/6mwo6UnOyR
— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) May 7, 2024
Ja'Tavion Sanders, Carolina Panthers
Sanders had 146 targets, 99 receptions, 1,295 yards, and seven touchdowns over his final two seasons at Texas. That’s excellent production from a collegiate tight end. Sanders was also an early declare and was drafted with the first pick in the fourth round. Typically, we’d love to see rookie tight ends at least get Day 2 draft capital, but he was a pick away from being in the third. Sanders doesn’t have an elite RAS, but did post a sub-4.7 40-yard dash time and had excellent 10- and 20-yard splits.
The only other tight ends on the roster are Tommy Tremble, who has 550 yards in three seasons, Ian Thomas, who has 1,055 yards in six seasons, and Stephen Sullivan, who has 170 yards in four seasons. Sanders may not become the three-down tight end starter due to a lack of experience and not being the greatest blocker, but he could easily become the Panthers’ preferred receiving option at tight end.
Diontae Johnson will be the Panthers’ No. 1 receiver. After him, there’s Adam Thielen (who will be 34 years old in August), Xavier Legette (a first-round rookie who had just 423 yards in his first four years of college), and Jonathan Mingo, a 2023 second-round bust. There is some opportunity here, although he’s likely a better bet for 2025. Still, with Dave Canales' improved coaching and the talent acquisition, Sanders could be a tight-end streamer worth paying attention to.
Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints
Michael Thomas was released this offseason after having 64 targets, 39 receptions, 448 yards, and one touchdown. The Saints could have added a pass-catcher in free agency or the NFL Draft but chose not to. Rashid Shaheed is slated to be the No. 2 receiver in New Orleans. He has yet to finish with over 75 targets in either of his two seasons in the NFL and record 50 or more catches. Shaheed averages 16.3 yards per reception and is primarily a downfield threat.
Alvin Kamara will likely be New Orleans's No. 2 target earner, with Shaheed and Johnson being possible contenders. That lack of competition keeps Johnson in a position to be the Saints' No. 2 target earner on any given week, which gives him quality streaming potential. An addition of any relevant pass-catcher could have rendered Johnson irrelevant. Still, he’s got another chance to make some noise in 2024, especially if he finds some of his 2022 touchdown luck when he scored seven on 42 receptions.
Greg Dulcich, Denver Broncos
People forget Dulcich was a really good prospect. He was selected in the third round after having 65 targets, 42 receptions, 725 yards, and five touchdowns in his final season at UCLA. He posted a 27.3% college dominator and a 20.4-year breakout age, both excellent indicators. He also posted a strong RAS score of 8.24, including a sub-4.70 40-yard dash time. As a rookie, he had a 17.2% target share and averaged 5.5 targets per game, which equates to 94 over 17 games. He also averaged 3.3 receptions and 41.1 yards per game, equating to 56 receptions and 699 yards. It was a very good rookie season!
He was injured for almost the entire duration of the 2023 season. The Broncos' tight end depth chart is barren entering the 2024 season. It’s him, Adam Trautman, Lucas Krull, Nate Adkins, Thomas Yassmin, and Dylan Leonard. Who? Who, and I’m sorry, who? The receivers for the Broncos are Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims Jr., and Troy Franklin. Trautman has 845 yards in four seasons, never finishing with more than 265. Sutton hasn’t had more than 830 yards in three seasons, and he’s failed to eclipse 100 targets or 800 yards in two of the last three years. Mims had 377 yards as a rookie last season. Franklin is a fourth-round rookie. There’s no good target competition in Denver, and Dulcich has already shown he can play as a rookie. He’s one of the best value bets at tight end. He costs nothing.
Greg Dulcich:
Dominates college
Paces for 700 yards as 3rd round rookie TE with awful Russell Wilson
Missed 2023 due to injuries
Is apparently bad now?? https://t.co/DWJ9rgyTJ7
— Akash (@YZR_Fantasy) February 9, 2024
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