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Welcome back RotoBallers to our Week 16 matchups analysis and Start Em, Sit Em column for fantasy football. We'd like to start by wishing everyone a happy holiday season! As has become the expectation, more signal-callers are getting hurt, including Zach Wilson and Trevor Lawrence. If the playoffs started today, there would be four teams competing with a backup quarterback, which is unprecedented. It was a blend of blowouts and close games last week, some of which were more surprising than others, but plenty of which gave us huge fantasy days. It's Week 2 of the fantasy playoffs in most leagues, meaning all the managers who had a bye are back. The NFL schedule not only features two Saturday games but also has three games on Monday to celebrate Christmas, so keep an eye out for those.
For anyone new to the column, each week we'll be analyzing every game from the Sunday slate and the Monday Night Football game, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information. Additionally, you'll notice some players are obvious starts included in the "matchups we love" section in the interest of making sure everyone is covered. Furthermore, there will be times when one wide receiver or running back is listed individually but their teammates are included in the write-up. I also want to express my gratitude for some of the great resources that help me write this article each week such as RotoBaller's player pages, rbsdm, Pro Football Focus, Rotovitz, FTN Fantasy, Fantasy Life, Pro Football Reference, NFL Next Gen Stats, DraftKings Sportsbook, and Fantasy Points, along with all of you for reading this article.
There is also a separate article for the Thursday Night Football game each week, so be sure to read that. Hopefully, you crushed your opponent and are one step closer to a title. Regardless of what you're playing for or what has you interested, we're glad you're still along for the ride with us. If you have any additional lineup questions, follow me on Twitter/X @JoshCon, and feel free to ask away. Let's dive into the matchups.
Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!
Matchups Analysis - Saturday Games
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread: Bengals -3.0
Implied Total: Bengals (20.5) vs. Steelers (17.5)
Pace: Bengals (30th) vs. Steelers (19th)
Bengals Off. DVOA: 20.8% Pass (14th), -4.2% Rush (14th)
Steelers Off. DVOA: 4.9% Pass (22nd), -5.8% Rush (17th)
Bengals Def. DVOA: 10.4% Pass (20th), 2.2% Rush (29th)
Steelers Def. DVOA: 0.4% Pass (9th), -10.1% Rush (15th)
WEATHER: This game is expected to have light rain and minor wind, which shouldn't have much impact.
Matchups We Love:
Joe Mixon (RB, CIN)
Mixon found the end zone again, but the negative game script forced the Bengals to air it out. He split the receiving work with Chase Brown as they had each had three targets, but maintained the goal-line role, which is key to his value. With so few healthy and reliable tailbacks left, he's among the best right now the way the offense is playing and utilizing him. Pittsburgh got gashed by the Colts on the ground last week, setting Mixon up in the top 15 with Brown, who had over 50 scrimmage yards as a flex option.
Tee Higgins (WR, CIN)
The passing volume we referenced was good news for Ja'Marr Chase until he suffered a shoulder injury. That paved the way for Higgins to haul in two touchdowns, the latter of which is a candidate for play of the year. It's going to be the Higgins show now that Chase is sidelined with Tyler Boyd and their tight end Tanner Hudson as the next options on the depth chart. The opening on the depth chart moves Higgins into the top 24, despite lining up across from Joey Porter Jr., with Boyd as a flex option and Hudson as a streamer.
Matchups We Hate:
Pat Freiermuth (TE, PIT)
Trusting anyone from the Pittsburgh passing attack aside from Diontae Johnson has been a fool's errand. While it's noteworthy that his career day of 11 for 120 was against Cincinnati four weeks ago, it was with Kenny Pickett. Furthermore, since that week, he's totaled nine receptions for 63 yards in three games.
Other Matchups:
Jaylen Warren (RB, PIT)
The Steelers' backfield is also in a good spot because the Vikings ran all over Cincy last week. Unfortunately, the split there is a little more even, making it harder to identify the more valuable player. After storming out to an early lead, they fell flat and spent most of the afternoon trying to come back, which favored Warren. As home underdogs, they're likely to be dealing with that issue again, making Warren the preferred back over Najee Harris. Mitch Trubisky was benched in the fourth quarter, prompting the team to move to Mason Rudolph this week. It's a lateral move that carries an unknown element.
Diontae Johnson (WR, PIT)
Trubisky and Johnson have a chemistry together that tends to result in good things. He had another solid outing, scoring his third straight touchdown since Trubisky took over. He should remain the focal point of the passing attack but he drops outside the top 24 with a switch at QB, despite the positive matchup.
Jake Browning (QB, CIN)
Browning looked in over his head for three quarters but rallied his team late to squeak out another victory. It wasn't all pretty, but for fantasy purposes, he went over 300 passing yards and threw two touchdowns, so you have to be happy with that. Losing Chase isn't ideal because it enables the defense to focus their attention on the other weapons, which could make life more difficult for Browning. That being said, he's still a potential streamer given his recent streak.
Injuries:
Kenny Pickett (ankle)
Ja'Marr Chase (shoulder)
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Chargers
Spread: Bills -12.5
Implied Total: Bills (28.25) vs. Chargers (15.75)
Pace: Bills (27th) vs. Chargers (1st)
Bills Off. DVOA: 41.4% Pass (2nd), 6.9% Rush (5th)
Chargers Off. DVOA: 19.4% Pass (15th), -18.9% Rush (30th)
Bills Def. DVOA: 1.7% Pass (14th), -8.8% Rush (17th)
Chargers Def. DVOA: 17.7% Pass (28th), -1.2% Rush (25th)
Matchups We Love:
Josh Allen (QB, BUF)
Taking the Bills to win made sense given how they looked against the Chiefs, but holding the Cowboys to three points for 50-plus minutes is a shocker. Even Allen couldn't believe it. He spoke in his interview about how he felt like the kid who did nothing and still got an 'A' on his project. Seven completions for 94 yards justifies those feelings. He still scored through the air and on the ground, making him nearly impossible to bust. Watch out, Los Angeles.
James Cook (RB, BUF)
The star of the show was Cook, who went over 200 scrimmage yards and found pay dirt twice on 27 touches. He was incredible, ripping off huge runs and looking like an elite back. He's fourth in the NFL in rushing yards over expected per attempt at 0.85 with seven breakaway (15-plus yards) runs and sits third in scrimmage yards with 1,401. He's a top-12 back against the Chargers and their porous defense.
Matchups We Hate:
Austin Ekeler (RB, LAC)
Los Angeles got shellacked to the tune of 42 first-half points and 63 total. It led to the firing of their head coach Brandon Staley, which was long overdue. While you'd like to hope the team will rally and play better, the Bills defense is a scary matchup right now. For Ekeler specifically, he's also dealing with the ineptitude of their offense led by Easton Stick. Finishing with 38 total yards when the team scores 21 points is brutal. He's impossible to feel confident in.
Chargers WRs
The box score will tell you Quentin Johnston and Joshua Palmer scored touchdowns, but the game was already over and those were more luck than anything. Relying on either of them to repeat that success is not wise, especially with Keenan Allen injured. The Bills shut down the Dallas passing attack, which is among the league's best, so hoping for big things from Palmer or Johnston against them is risky. Palmer would be the best choice as a flex option.
Other Matchups:
Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)
You can't blame Diggs or anyone else in the passing attack for a down game when the offense runs the ball 49 times for 266 yards. Unfortunately, there's a legitimate chance they'll follow the same path to victory against the Chargers. He's still capable of an elite performance but drops outside the top 12.
Dalton Kincaid (TE, BUF)
It's the same for Kincaid, who failed to register a catch. He falls into the streaming category.
Gerald Everett (TE, LAC)
The one possible player to consider is Everett merely because he's a tight end whose stat line has essentially been five receptions for 40 yards the past four weeks. It's not exciting and the matchup isn't great, but if you're desperate, he's a streamer.
Injuries:
Keenan Allen (heel)
Matchups Analysis - 1:00 ET Games
Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons
Spread: Falcons -2.5
Implied Total: Colts (21.5) vs. Falcons (24)
Pace: Colts (3rd) vs. Falcons (6th)
Colts Off. DVOA: 10.4% Pass (19th), 4.0% Rush (7th)
Falcons Off. DVOA: 2.9% Pass (23rd), -9.9% Rush (20th)
Colts Def. DVOA: 1.7% Pass (13th), -4.2% Rush (23rd)
Falcons Def. DVOA: 20.5% Pass (30th), -14.5% Rush (10th)
Matchups We Love:
Colts RBs
Despite suffering injuries across multiple skill positions, Indianapolis secured another win moving them closer to the playoffs. Zack Moss finally scored and had a nice day before injuring his arm. Trey Sermon was spelling him, but it prompted Tyler Goodson to get in on the rotation, who was explosive. Their offensive line is the strength of their squad, resulting in 34 carries for 170 yards. All indications are that Jonathan Taylor will be back this week. He'll slot in as the starter, but they may ease him in a little more coming off another multi-week injury. Zack Moss would be next up if healthy; otherwise, it'll be Sermon. Taylor would immediately jump into the top 15 with top-10 upside if Moss misses.
UPDATE: Taylor is good to go, while Mosshas been ruled out, so it'll be Taylor solo with Sermon and Goodson as the backups.
Bijan Robinson (RB, ATL)
It should be all hands on deck for Robinson against the Colts, but Arthur Smith cratered our collective optimism in Week 15. Robinson finished with negative points in half-PPR scoring thanks to a fumble and 14 yards on eight touches. It was the worst-case scenario, reaching a new low that didn't even seem possible. Yes, there was inclement weather that caused both offenses to sputter, but Tyler Allgeier had 51 total yards and Cordarrelle Patterson scored from the goal line. If you were on a bye or survived his detrimental performance last week, it'll take a lot of courage to throw him back out there, even with the QB change, but the matchup is great.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND)
Pittman Jr. was doing what he always does until he took a nasty hit that caused him to enter the concussion protocol. Pittman practiced in full on Thursday, indicating he's got a decent shot to suit up on Sunday. If he's out there, he's a borderline must-start with Josh Downs as a risky flex option. If he misses, then Downs would be a little more exciting.
UPDATE: Despite practicing and trending towards playing, Pittman has been ruled out. Downs becomes a flex option with a little more upside.
Matchups We Hate:
Kyle Pitts (TE, ATL)
Scoring seven points en route to a 9-7 loss to the 32nd-place team is an embarrassment. You have to wonder how much longer the coaching staff will have the support of ownership. Desmond Ridder completed 12 passes, so no one in the passing attack was good. Pitts did all he could with three receptions for 37 yards. The team has elected to bench Ridder in favor of Taylor Heinicke for the second time this year. While he's probably a slight upgrade, it's not going to move the needle much. It's a below-average matchup and the team is reeling, making Pitts a risky streamer.
Other Matchups:
Gardner Minshew (QB, IND)
The Minshew magic was flowing on Saturday. He played well, completing 64% of his passes for 215 yards and three touchdowns. He managed to perform well even after Pittman left, but it looks like he'll have him available, which makes him a high-end streamer in a great matchup.
Drake London (WR, ATL)
Indianapolis has been tougher on wideouts the past six weeks, although some of that is the personnel they've faced (Panthers, Buccaneers, Patriots, Titans, Bengals, and Steelers). Nevertheless, London is stuck being a part of the mess in Atlanta, which adds a layer of risk. He remains around the top 36 given the injuries across the league and the potential for Heinicke to throw to him more than Ridder did.
Injuries:
Zack Moss (arm)
Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers
Spread: Packers -4.0
Implied Total: Packers (21) vs. Panthers (17)
Pace: Packers (15th) vs. Panthers (11th)
Packers Off. DVOA: 25.9% Pass (5th), -10.1% Rush (21st)
Panthers Off. DVOA: -24.7% Pass (32nd), -17.2% Rush (26th)
Packers Def. DVOA: 20.0% Pass (29th), -0.9% Rush (29th)
Panthers Def. DVOA: 8.7% Pass (17th), 6.2% Rush (31st)
Matchups We Love:
Aaron Jones (RB, GB)
Entering Sunday, it was unclear whether AJ Dillon and Jones would play. Dillon did not, but Jones returned to action, handling 17 touches. They only led to 69 total yards, but against the Buccaneers, who got back Lavonte David and Jamel Dean, the inefficiency is going to happen. The matchup is fantastic this week, moving him into the top 24, especially if Dillon is out again.
UPDATE: Jones is good to go, while Dillon is questionable. It seems like Dillon will miss, but the weekend will confirm that.
Chuba Hubbard (RB, CAR)
They kept their run-centric approach with 36 runs to 24 passes, helping Hubbard rack up over 100 yards on 24 touches. We know their goal is to limit the attempts for Bryce Young, so against a defense that's more vulnerable on the ground, Hubbard stays in the top 24.
Matchups We Hate:
Panthers Passing Attack
Earning a win despite failing to score a touchdown is probably more of an indictment on the Falcons, but kudos to the Panthers for getting the job done. It could put their stranglehold on the No. 1 pick in jeopardy, but since that pick goes to Chicago, I'm sure they'd rather keep winning. Adam Thielen led the way with four grabs for 43 yards. Rain was a significant factor, but trusting anyone from this group in the playoffs is too risky.
Other Matchups:
Tucker Kraft (TE, GB)
Kraft took advantage of a great matchup against Tampa Bay, hauling in a touchdown on six targets. He's trending upward with the injuries to the other pass-catchers. The Panthers are a tougher matchup because it's easier to run on them, but he moves around the back of the top 12.
Packer WRs
Jayden Reed, who has been on fire, left with a toe injury and has yet to return to practice. That's in addition to Christian Watson, who has yet to practice since re-aggravating his hamstring. It's shaping up to be Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks. Wicks played through an ankle injury last week, hauling in six catches for 97 yards. He leads this group in yards per route run with true downfield potential. Assuming Watson and Reed are out, Wicks is a top-36 wideout against a team that is easier to run on with Doubs in the flex range.
UPDATE: Watson is listed as doubtful, which almost always equates to being out while Reed and Wicks are listed as questionable. If both play, then Reed is the one to start, if he's out, then it's Wicks unless he misses, too.
Jordan Love (QB, GB)
Love played a lot better than he did against New York but he had a costly fumble and the defense couldn't slow down Baker Mayfield. He's typically reliable for 250-plus yards and two touchdowns, but he's missing some of his weapons and the matchup favors the run, so he lands in the streaming category.
Injuries:
Luke Musgrave (kidney)
Christian Watson (hamstring)
AJ Dillon (thumb)
Jayden Reed (toe/chest)
Dontayvion Wicks (ankle)
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans
Spread: Browns -3.0
Implied Total: Browns (21.5) vs. Texans (18.5)
Pace: Browns (8th) vs. Texans (7th)
Browns Off. DVOA: -9.3% Pass (29th), -10.3% Rush (22nd)
Texans Off. DVOA: 27.2% Pass (6th), -18.4% Rush (29th)
Browns Def. DVOA: -23.8% Pass (1st), -20.2% Rush (2nd)
Texans Def. DVOA: 12.8% Pass (23rd), -15.9% Rush (5th)
Matchups We Love:
David Njoku (TE, CLE)
Njoku is on a tear right now, coming off back-to-back TE2 finishes. Joe Flacco is throwing the ball 45 times per game with many of those in the direction of Njoku. They've been unable to run the ball as successfully as they were earlier in the year, so they're forced into this strategy. Houston is another good matchup, so you can fire up Njoku once more.
Amari Cooper (WR, CLE)
It took a little more time to establish the connection between Flacco and Cooper, but they've found it. He continues to operate at a 50% catch rate, which isn't ideal, but the big plays and deeper passes are coming through. Last week, it was a 51-yard catch and run he took to the house. There's always a chance Flacco commits one too many turnovers and things start to unravel, but it's a decent matchup, so he stays in the top 24.
Matchups We Hate:
Texans WRs
Case Keenum was good enough to keep the offense afloat while minimizing the mistakes, which is what you hope for in a veteran backup quarterback. He completed 64% of his passes for 229 yards and a touchdown with one interception. With Nico Collins sidelined, Noah Brown had a huge day, hauling in eight passes for 82 yards and a score. However, that was against the Titans, whose pass rush grade is 17th. This week, they'll host Cleveland, who leads the league, according to PFF. They're also first in pass DVOA allowed and EPA per dropback allowed. Collins has practiced in a limited fashion on both days, so there's a chance he suits up. He'd move into the top 30 if active with more risk of re-injury while Brown would be a flex option. Brown would jump into the top 36 if he's out.
UPDATE: Collins is questionable to play on Sunday. It's hard to gauge whether or not he'll play at this point.
Other Matchups:
Devin Singletary (RB, HOU)
It's been a bit of a roller coaster in terms of the backfield usage, but we were back to dominance by Singletary in Week 15. He played 75% of the snaps, accounted for 81% of the team's rushing attempts, and earned a 15% target share. Furthermore, finishing with the 11th-highest rushing yards per attempt over expected rate at 0.73 against Tennessee on 26 carries is impressive. It gives confidence that you can lean on him in another tough spot. He's in the top 24.
Dalton Schultz (TE, HOU)
Schultz caught four of his five targets for 58 yards, which is serviceable at tight end. The matchup was very tough for a while, but we've seen a few players find success, including Cole Kmet last week and Evan Engram the week prior. Schultz remains a streamer with so many pass-catchers banged up.
Jerome Ford (RB, CLE)
The backfield injuries have finally caught up to the Browns, who were pounding the rock with ease for half of the year. However, over the last three weeks, they rank 29th in rushing yards per attempt while running the ball just 43.56% of the time, which ranks 31st. Furthermore, they've fallen to 22nd in offensive EPA per rush and 28th in rushing success rate on the year. They cannot run the ball well. It's caused a dip in production for Ford, who is hanging his hat on his receiving skills to score points. Fortunately, he's averaging four catches for 25 yards per game during that stretch, which keeps him from busting, but without a trip to the end zone, his ceiling is capped. Meanwhile, his teammate Kareem Hunt has become a touchdown-or-bust tailback.
Joe Flacco (QB, CLE)
Starting Flacco is a wild ride, but the end result is pretty good. You can generally count on a top-12 finish, which is good enough to keep him in the conversation as a streamer against Houston.
Injuries:
C.J. Stroud (concussion)
Nico Collins (calf)
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
Spread: Lions -3.0
Implied Total: Lions (25.25) vs. Vikings (22.25)
Pace: Lions (18th) vs. Vikings (9th)
Lions Off. DVOA: 24.2% Pass (8th), 9.3% Rush (4th)
Vikings Off. DVOA: 12.6% Pass (18th), -17.9% Rush (28th)
Lions Def. DVOA: 8.5% Pass (16th), -16.4% Rush (4th)
Vikings Def. DVOA: -3.6% Pass (7th), -14.6% Rush (9th)
Matchups We Love:
Lions RBs
Dan Campbell had his crew ready to roll on Saturday. They started slowly with three straight punts before going off against Denver for six touchdowns. Having Frank Ragnow back definitely helped. Jahmyr Gibbs accounted for two of those, one on the air and one on the ground, plus he went over 100 yards. David Montgomery had 85 yards on his 17 carries, but couldn't find the end zone. Minnesota's defense is a tougher task, but these two are both locked in.
Sam LaPorta (TE, DET)
LaPorta keeps moving closer to breaking the rookie tight end record for receptions. He's just 10 back with three games remaining. He's still 318 yards away from that category but thanks to a three-touchdown performance, he's only three away from that mark. He's obviously in your lineup.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET)
There was reason for caution with St. Brown after back-to-back games with three or fewer receptions and Patrick Surtain II lining up across from him, but he was all over the field, piling up seven grabs for 112 yards and a score. After him and LaPorta, it's really a guessing game, so you can take a shot on Jameson Williams or Josh Reynolds, but that's not frequently a rewarding bet.
Vikings WRs
Justin Jefferson made it through the game unscathed and hauled in seven passes for 84 yards in the process, so that's a win. However, his numbers failed to stack up to Jordan Addison's, which were six receptions for 111 yards and two scores. There won't be many weeks where Addison outproduces Jefferson, but it's possible the two can coexist if Nick Mullens keeps airing it out. With Detroit next up, Jefferson is a top-12 wideout and Addison is in the top 30.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
T.J. Hockenson (TE, MIN)
Hockenson earned seven targets, catching six of them for 63 yards, which is decent for most tight ends. He's been setting the bar a lot higher than that this season, but with Jefferson in toe and Addison breaking out, he'll be towards the middle of the top 12 against the Lions.
Ty Chandler (RB, MIN)
Chandler absolutely dominated the Bengals with 23 rushing attempts for 132 yards and a score. He also added in three receptions for 25 yards as the cherry on top. He was burning them with his elite speed. With Mattison trending towards missing another week, he should see a ton of work again. The matchup is a lot harder, but he remains a top-20 back with Mattison projected to be out. He'd drop a few spots if Mattison returns.
UPDATE: Mattison is listed as questionable after returning to practice on Friday. It's possible he suits up, but Chandler will be the feature back either way.
Nick Mullens (QB, MIN)
Mullens has the weapons, the matchup, and the willingness to take shots down the field, so he's worth considering as a streamer depending on your other options.
Jared Goff (QB, DET)
Both Goff and Dorothy believe there's no place like home. He lit it up at Ford Field with five passing touchdowns, becoming just the second signal-caller to hit that number in 2023. Many of them were on shorter fields, so the yard total was only 278, but it was impressive. The bad news is he heads on the road to Minnesota. The good news is that they also have a dome and he plays there annually, so it's like his home away from home. He sits at the back of the top 12 given the way the offense played.
Injuries:
Alexander Mattison (ankle)
Washington Commanders at New York Jets
Spread: Jets -3.0
Implied Total: Commanders (17) vs. Jets (20)
Pace: Commanders (17th) vs. Jets (5th)
Commanders Off. DVOA: -2.4% Pass (25th), -10.9% Rush (23rd)
Jets Off. DVOA: -23.7% Pass (31st), -31.7% Rush (32nd)
Commanders Def. DVOA: 34.7% Pass (32nd), -12.3% Rush (12th)
Jets Def. DVOA: -15.0% Pass (3rd), -15.0% Rush (7th)
Matchups We Love:
None
Matchups We Hate:
Commanders Passing Attack
Sam Howell struggled against the Rams, completing just 42% of his passes with a sack and a pick. Ron Rivera decided he'd seen enough, turning to Jacoby Brissett. It really sparked the offense, especially Terry McLaurin, who finished with six receptions for 141 yards and a touchdown, nearly two. Curtis Samuel also did some damage with five for 41 and two, one of which came from Howell. Unfortunately, the excitement won't last because they've announced Howell will get the nod this week against the Jets. Logan Thomas had just one grab in a plus matchup. In a brutal matchup on the road, you can't trust this group. Samuel is the only one to consider as a top-36 wideout because he plays in the slot.
Other Matchups:
Antonio Gibson (RB, WAS)
With Brian Robinson Jr. out, Gibson ceded 10 carries to Chris Rodriguez Jr., but hauled in five passes for 20 yards. He seemed to lose work to Jonathan Williams as the game went on as well, which isn't a great sign. It was a tough matchup against Los Angeles, but it'll get easier this week when they head to New York. Robinson Jr. has yet to practice, so projecting him to miss makes sense. In that scenario, Gibson would be a flex option.
UPDATE: Robinson has been ruled out as expected.
Garrett Wilson (WR, NYJ)
Getting shutout against Miami is another depressing chapter in the story of the 2023 Jets. Zach Wilson left the game with a concussion, but Garrett Wilson had zero receptions at that point, so it's not as if the switch to Trevor Siemian was the problem. Three receptions for 29 yards is abysmal, but so is generating 103 yards of offense. It's a sad state of affairs. They're officially eliminated from the playoffs with bad vibes all around. Taking on the Commanders has been the best matchup in fantasy over the past six weeks, so the path is there, but it's impossible to get excited about it.
Breece Hall (RB, NYJ)
Hall was particularly bad on the ground last week with six carries for 12 yards, but after thriving in the passing attack for several weeks, he caught just one pass for six yards. Same outlook here, an amazing matchup with no confidence in the offense.
Injuries:
Zach Wilson (concussion)
Brian Robinson Jr. (hamstring)
Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans
Spread: Seahawks -3.5
Implied Total: Seahawks (22.5) vs. Titans (19)
Pace: Seahawks (4th) vs. Titans (25th)
Seahawks Off. DVOA: 23.3% Pass (11th), -7.2% Rush (18th)
Titans Off. DVOA: 5.2% Pass (21st), -5.7% Rush (16th)
Seahawks Def. DVOA: 14.2% Pass (26th), -6.3% Rush (21st)
Titans Def. DVOA: 15.8% Pass (27th), -14.3% Rush (11th)
Matchups We Love:
Seahawks WRs
Drew Lock stepped into a tough spot against Philly, who is easy from a matchup perspective for quarterbacks, but still a quality football team. He played incredibly well considering the circumstances, capping off his night with a 92-yard touchdown drive to get a win. It proved to be a downgrade for the passing attack, but DK Metcalf caught five passes for 78 yards and Jaxon Smith-Njigba hauled in that game-winner as one of his four grabs for 48 yards. Tyler Lockett went back to being the odd man out, which was a little surprising because Lock targeted him the most. With Geno Smith back and a good matchup in Tennessee, Metcalf moves into the top 24 with Smith-Njigba in the top 36 and Lockett a flex option.
Geno Smith (QB, SEA)
Smith balled out against Dallas before aggravating his groin. Thankfully, he's feeling better and ready to lead his squad on a playoff push. He's a solid streamer with his full complement of weapons available.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Derrick Henry (RB, TEN)
Henry getting 16 carries against Houston has historically equated to a fantastic day. Unfortunately, it went about as bad as possible with nine rushing yards. It's unfathomable given his propensity to break tackles and plow over defenders. Further worsening the situation, he had four receptions for one yard. If you were on a bye or overcame his disastrous day, you'll have a chance to throw him out there in what has been a top-five matchup over the past six weeks. Additionally, the Seahawks are rarely a team that blows out their opponent, so the game script should cooperate. He's back in the top 24.
Titans Passing Attack
Of course, the week no one started him, Treylon Burks had a decent game with three catches for 62 yards. DeAndre Hopkins finished with two receptions on nine targets, which is maddening. Chigoziem Okonkwo was also disappointing, going three for 36. Will Levis, who ran for a touchdown, suffered an ankle injury on a big hit. He's yet to practice along with Okonkwo, who is dealing with an illness. Ryan Tannehill is a slight downgrade, but certainly a competent veteran backup that could keep the offense afloat. The matchup is good, so Hopkins is a top-30 wideout with either signal-caller. Okonkwo is also a potential streamer.
UPDATE: Both Levis and Okonkwo are listed as questionable. If Okonkwo is out, it further concentrates the targets to Hopkins and Burks.
Kenneth Walker III (RB, SEA)
It's been hard to trust Walker III since returning because he and Zach Charbonnet were in a near 50/50 split. That all changed against the Eagles when Walker handled 22 touches for over 100 yards and a score. That kind of workload and production in such a difficult matchup is very encouraging for this week. He jumps back into the top 15 against the Titans, whose run defense has softened in recent weeks.
UPDATE: Walker returned to practice on Friday, but is listed as questionable. It seems like he'll play but we'll need confirmation this weekend.
Injuries:
Will Levis (ankle)
Chigoziem Okonkwo (illness)
Kenneth Walker III (shoulder)
Matchup Analysis - 4:25 ET Games
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: Buccaneers -2.0
Implied Total: Jaguars (20) vs. Buccaneers (22)
Pace: Jaguars (14th) vs. Buccaneers (12th)
Jaguars Off. DVOA: 25.1% Pass (7th), -13.4% Rush (24th)
Buccaneers Off. DVOA: 18.4% Pass (16th), -14.5% Rush (25th)
Jaguars Def. DVOA: 1.2% Pass (11th), -15.5% Rush (6th)
Buccaneers Def. DVOA: 8.4% Pass (15th), -11.1% Rush (13th)
Matchups We Love:
Rachaad White (RB, TB)
White has risen to the category of matchup-proof player. He may have been there for multiple weeks already. He ran the ball more than 20 times for the third straight week, plus he added another receiving touchdown. The offense is humming along right now and his usage is among the best backs in the NFL. He's a must-start.
Baker Mayfield (QB, TB)
Posting the first-ever perfect passer rating in Lambeau is a hell of an accomplishment. Mayfield was extremely efficient, averaging 13.6 yards per attempt while totaling 381 yards and four touchdowns. He's heating up at the ideal time, making him a borderline top-12 signal-caller.
Mike Evans (WR, TB)
Much like White, Evans has a nose for the end zone. However, what was shocking last week was the dominance of Chris Godwin, who has done very little over the past six weeks. His 10/155 stat line came out of nowhere against the Packers. While it's noteworthy, particularly because Mayfield is executing at a high level right now, it's likely an outlier performance. The Buccaneers are currently leading the division, so they'll be competing hard and needing to air it out against a beatable Jacksonville secondary. Evans remains a top-15 wideout with Godwin around the top 36.
Evan Engram (TE, JAX)
Hosting the Ravens was always going to be an uphill battle for an inconsistent team like the Jaguars. They did well to move the ball into Baltimore territory, but missed field goals and turnovers plagued them. Engram had a mediocre game with four catches for 28 yards. Trevor Lawrence has yet to practice, which is concerning for the offense as a whole. That being said, the matchup is so good that Engram is a top-10 tight end even with C.J. Beathard.
UPDATE: Lawrence cleared the concussion protocol and is good to go.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Travis Etienne Jr. (RB, JAX)
We highlighted that facing the Ravens, who give up the fewest rushing touchdowns of any team, would be a problem for Etienne Jr. last week. He failed to score but did haul in four passes for 28 yards, which has been an area he's excelled in recently. Tampa Bay is stout when their defense is healthy, which it currently is for the most part, but not to the same degree as Baltimore. Once again, the impact of Lawrence is significant. If he's out, Etienne should see more work but has a lower chance of scoring. Currently, he sits as a top-24 back.
UPDATE: Lawrence cleared the concussion protocol and is good to go.
Jaguars WRs
Neither Calvin Ridley nor Zay Jones were able to post a big day either. The only player who did anything of note was Jamal Agnew, who got wide open for a 65-yard house call. Jones can at least excuse part of his poor output to a hamstring injury he suffered, likely related to the knee issue he was playing through. With Jones yet to practice, Ridley and Parker Washington would become the top two targets. If it's Lawrence tossing them the pigskin, then Ridley would be a top-30 volatile wideout with Washington a flex option. If it's Beathard, then Ridley drops into the flex range, but it's best to look elsewhere despite the plus matchup.
UPDATE: Lawrence cleared concussion protocol and is good to go, while Jones returned to practice on Friday and is listed as questionable. We'll see what the weekend brings, but the lean is towards Jones missing.
Injuries:
Trevor Lawrence (ankle/concussion)
Zay Jones (knee/hamstring)
Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears
Spread: Bears -4.0
Implied Total: Cardinals (19.5) vs. Bears (23.5)
Pace: Cardinals (2nd) vs. Bears (26th)
Cardinals Off. DVOA: -7.9% Pass (27th), -0.3% Rush (9th)
Bears Off. DVOA: -1.4% Pass (24th), -4.7% Rush (15th)
Cardinals Def. DVOA: 26.7% Pass (31st), 4.5% Rush (30th)
Bears Def. DVOA: 10.4% Pass (19th), -18.2% Rush (3rd)
WEATHER: This game is expected to have light rain and minor wind with a decent temperature, which shouldn't have much impact.
Matchups We Love:
Justin Fields (QB, CHI)
Fields struggled on the road in Cleveland, mostly because he didn't run the ball as well or as much. While it's fair to wonder if he's capable of delivering against quality opponents, we don't need to cross that bridge this week when Arizona travels to Solider Field. It's a superb bounce-back spot, pushing him into the top 12.
DJ Moore (WR, CHI)
Moore had a shot for a better day with a few missed opportunities by Fields. The fourth down play where Fields chose to tuck it and run instead of tossing it to Moore comes to mind. Regardless of last week's missed opportunities, it's a perfect matchup for him to return to his scoring ways as a top-20 receiver.
Trey McBride (TE, ARI)
The Cardinals are a mess, especially at the wide receiver position. The one player that just keeps crushing it is McBride. The outlook looked grim against the 49ers, yet he had 10 receptions for 102 yards. He's proven he belongs in the elite tier.
Matchups We Hate:
Cardinals WRs
As mentioned, this group is letting the team down. Marquise Brown can't stay healthy, Rondale Moore lacks the skill set to excel beyond the line of scrimmage, Greg Dortch is an inconsistent slot receiver, and Michael Wilson has the ceiling but doesn't appear to be a true No. 1 wideout. Further impacting this group is the wide distribution of targets, including 10 different players in Week 15. Chicago has been a tougher matchup over the past six weeks, making everyone here high risk. If you're forced to choose one, it's Dortch for somewhat of a floor or Wilson for more of a ceiling.
UPDATE: Brown has been ruled out again, which slightly increases the volume for Dortch, who is questionable to play, and Wilson.
Other Matchups:
James Conner (RB, ARI)
Things worked out pretty well for Conner again. They got the ball first, and after getting down to the five-yard line, they elected to run Conner twice, resulting in a touchdown. He later added a 44-yard run, but as the game script turned, he was phased out in favor of Emari Demercado, who also scored, and Michael Carter. The hope is that they can keep it close against the Bears, enabling them to maintain their rushing attack. Conner lands in the top 24 as a more volatile option.
Kyler Murray (QB, ARI)
A bad day was almost a lot worse if not for a late scoring drive by Murray. He threw two interceptions and fumbled twice, but both were recovered by the offense. The matchup is bad again, it's actually been the fourth-hardest matchup over the past six weeks, although backup signal-callers have contributed to that. Murray's rushing baseline is what makes him intriguing as a streamer, but the upside isn't really there given the way this offense is performing.
Cole Kmet (TE, CHI)
Kmet made a nice catch in the end zone. Aside from that, he was quiet with four grabs for 15 yards. It's not been a good matchup for tight ends this year, making him more of a touchdown-dependent streamer.
UPDATE: Kmet is listed as questionable for Sunday. It further decreases his streaming value.
Bears RBs
Two weeks ago, it was D'Onta Foreman leading the way with Khalil Herbert backing him up and Roschon Johnson mostly uninvolved. Last week, it was Johnson who found the most success on the ground and contributed a lot through the air with four receptions. He played 53% of the snaps, was in for almost every long-distance down, and took all the two-minute drill snaps. The matchup is awesome, but discerning who will get the workload is the challenge. If you believe this will be a game they win and lead, then Foreman should be the preferred option, but there's also a chance Johnson is taking over the job given the playoffs are out of reach and they're evaluating talent. Both are in the flex range with Johnson as the favorite.
UPDATE: Foreman, who has missed practice for personal reasons, is listed as questionable. If he were to miss, Johnson would move into the top 24 with Herbert as a flex option.
Injuries:
Marquise Brown (heel)
Greg Dortch (shoulder)
Cole Kmet (quad)
Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins
Spread: Dolphins -1.5
Implied Total: Cowboys (24.25) vs. Dolphins (25.75)
Pace: Cowboys (21st) vs. Dolphins (31st)
Cowboys Off. DVOA: 24.0% Pass (9th), -3.5% Rush (13th)
Dolphins Off. DVOA: 40.8% Pass (3rd), 17.8% Rush (2nd)
Cowboys Def. DVOA: -4.1% Pass (6th), -10.1% Rush (16th)
Dolphins Def. DVOA: 1.3% Pass (12th), -6.5% Rush (20th)
WEATHER: This game is expected to have minor wind, which shouldn't have any impact.
Matchups We Love:
Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)
Prescott and Co. got out-muscled by the Bills. If you take away the one scoring drive they had late in the game when Buffalo was just killing the clock in a prevent defense, they totaled 115 yards of offense and three points. Prescott failed to find the end zone, threw an interception, and averaged just 3.9 yards per attempt. Weather was also cited as a factor for their loss, which may or may not be legitimate. Miami will certainly have watched the tape from last week in hopes of deploying a similar approach, but the Cowboys will also have had a week to make adjustments. Prescott loses a little of his shine but remains a top-10 quarterback.
CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL)
Lamb accounted for their only touchdown, running it in late. No one was productive, so it's essentially a throwaway in terms of stats and takeaways. He'll get Jalen Ramsey in coverage this week, but he's too explosive to move off of. Brandin Cooks is still the No. 2 receiver, so he's a worthy flex option with plenty of upside if the passing attack returns to form.
Jake Ferguson (TE, DAL)
As tight end scoring goes, Ferguson was still okay with six receptions for 44 yards. He trailed only Lamb in targets, proving he's locked in as a top-two option for Prescott. He rejoins the top 10 despite a tough opponent.
Dolphins WRs
Tyreek Hill missing their game raised a lot of questions about how successful the offense would be, which was warranted given their collapse without him the week prior and the matchup against the Jets. It turns out New York's defense is exploitable because their offense is inept, and Jaylen Waddle isn't as big a drop-off from Hill as it seemed like he would be. We know Waddle would be a No. 1 in many offenses across the league, but it was reassuring watching him roast a talented secondary on deep throws. It would be very surprising for Hill not to be out there this week, so with a potential shootout, Waddle is in as well.
UPDATE: After practicing on Thursday and Friday in a limited fashion, Hill is listed as questionable. He appears on track to return.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Raheem Mostert (RB, MIA)
With Hill sidelined and a huge lead, they ran the ball 28 times. Mostert did his damage near the goal line with two more trips to the end zone for an absurd total of 20 on the year. He's so reliable around the goal line, which is a role he has on lockdown. The assumption was that De'Von Achane would come in for cleanup duty and rack up plenty of yards. He did see nine carries and catch three passes, but the overall production was disappointing. Mostert remains a top-12 back with Achane as an upside top-24 option.
Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA)
Tagovailoa made smart decisions and only took chances when he knew his player would come out on top, completing 92% of his passes for 224 yards and a touchdown. More will be required of him this week against Dallas, so the ceiling goes up, but the variability also increases. Thankfully, he's supposed to get Hill back, which keeps him in play as a top-12 signal-caller.
Tony Pollard (RB, DAL)
Dallas lost Zack Martin in this game, which stunted their rushing attack. He's yet to practice, which is a concern. Pollard was efficient on the ground, but the volume just wasn't there for him to come through. The offense is bound to have a better outing, but Miami's defense has been stout against the run the past six weeks, dropping Pollard outside the top 12.
Injuries:
Salvon Ahmed (foot)
Tyreek Hill (ankle)
Rico Dowdle (ankle)
Matchup Analysis - Sunday Night Football
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
Spread: Broncos -7.0
Implied Total: Patriots (14.25) vs. Broncos (21.25)
Pace: Patriots (10th) vs. Broncos (24th)
Patriots Off. DVOA: -8.6% Pass (28th), -8.9% Rush (19th)
Broncos Off. DVOA: 13.6% Pass (17th), -2.6% Rush (12th)
Patriots Def. DVOA: 11.2% Pass (21st), -20.4% Rush (1st)
Broncos Def. DVOA: 14.1% Pass (25th), 7.9% Rush (32nd)
WEATHER: This game is expected to have minor wind with freezing temperatures but no snow or rain, which shouldn't have any impact.
Matchups We Love:
Courtland Sutton (WR, DEN)
Denver got embarrassed and exposed in Detroit on Saturday. Their defense held strong for the first quarter, but eventually, the floodgates opened. Sutton failed to score a touchdown against the Lions, which to this point, automatically meant he had a down week. However, in Week 15, that was not the case. He caught five passes for 71 yards, showing there's still a path to success. Fortunately, he now gets the Patriots secondary, which likely means he'll find pay dirt in Week 16. He remains a top-24 wideout.
Matchups We Hate:
Patriots WRs
Between Henry and the backfield taking away targets, DeVante Parker and Demario Douglas are left to fight for the scraps. Parker caught all five of his targets for 44 yards while Douglas caught three of five for 33 yards. Patrick Surtain II is likely to focus on Parker, so Douglas would be the better choice this week, but neither has much intrigue unless Hunter Henry were to miss.
UPDATE: Henry has been ruled out, increasing the excitement for Parker and Douglas with Douglas as the preferred option.
Javonte Williams (RB, DEN)
The Lions made a point to shut down the run early, which removed Williams from the game plan. His 12 carries went for 27 yards while his two receptions lost seven yards. Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin were involved with a combined eight carries and four targets. The Patriots still have a solid run defense, so Williams could struggle on the ground. They'll likely be leading, so you wouldn't expect as much Perine and McLaughlin, but he falls outside the top 24.
Other Matchups:
Russell Wilson (QB, DEN)
Wilson managed to score on the ground and through the air during comeback mode late in the game. He went over 200 yards, so in the end, he was an alright streamer. New England will be an easier matchup this week, plus it's a game they should win handily. He's not someone to chase for a ceiling, but if you need a solid floor option, he's in the mix.
Ezekiel Elliott (RB, NE)
Almost everything we anticipated and wanted occurred for Elliott in Foxborough. He hauled in five passes, totaled 16 touches, and remained the clear-cut starter. Unfortunately, Kevin Harris stole his touchdown, which would've boosted his total and compensated for his inefficiency on the ground. The matchup is good again, so he'll get the shot to remedy his poor output against Denver as a top-24 back, assuming Rhamondre Stevenson continues to miss time.
UPDATE: Stevenson has been ruled out again, paving the way for Elliott.
Injuries:
Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle)
Hunter Henry (knee)
Greg Dulcich (leg)
Matchups Analysis - Monday Games
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs -10.0
Implied Total: Raiders (15.5) vs. Chiefs (25.5)
Pace: Raiders (23rd) vs. Chiefs (22nd)
Raiders Off. DVOA: -6.1% Pass (25th), -17.6% Rush (27th)
Chiefs Off. DVOA: 33.2% Pass (4th), -0.7% Rush (10th)
Raiders Def. DVOA: 0.9% Pass (10th), -6.1% Rush (22nd)
Chiefs Def. DVOA: -9.0% Pass (5th), 1.1% Rush (27th)
WEATHER: This game is expected to have rain but no wind, but it's hard to tell this far out.
Matchups We Love:
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
Kelce's health is sapping his elite fantasy value. He still has an incredibly high floor and ceiling combo, but he's finished outside the top 12 three times during the past seven weeks and has only been in the top five once. The scarcity at the position pushes him into the top 10, but there are more than one or two other players worth considering ahead of him given the current state of the offense and his lingering injuries.
Rashee Rice (WR, KC)
As Kelce has slowed down, Rice has been cooking. He's had at least seven receptions and 64 yards in each of his past four games with a touchdown in three of them and over 100 yards twice. He also had his highest route participation of the year in Week 15 with his fourth straight week of more than 26 percent of the targets. The matchup is about average, so with no one else behind, he's a top-24 wideout.
Isiah Pacheco (RB, KC)
The duo of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon filled in admirably for Pacheco. Last week, it was Edwards-Helaire who had the better output, but both found the end zone as receivers. They may ease Pacheco back or pull him late if the game is out of hand, but the Raiders have been competitive and tend to perform well against the Chiefs. He slots in as a top-20 back while one of McKinnon or Edwards-Helaire would have flex appeal if we knew who it'd be. The lean is toward McKinnon, but that's far from a guarantee.
UPDATE: McKinnon has been ruled out, moving Pacheco up into the top 15 with Edwards Helaire as the flex option.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
It felt like more of a grind than it should have for Mahomes, who ended up with multiple picks (not entirely his fault) and faced a lot of pressure, resulting in three sacks. Thanks to some poor coverage and tackling by the Patriots, several of his shorter passes went for big plays, but he still finished as the QB15. Las Vegas isn't a scary matchup, but they're playing inspired football and would surely love to sour the hopes of their division rivals on Monday. Much like Kelce, Mahomes remains in the top 12 with at least a handful of players worth considering ahead of him.
Davante Adams (WR, LV)
Las Vegas obliterated Los Angeles, prompting them to fire their head coach and GM. They scored at will, racking up 42 points in the first half en route to a franchise-record 63 total. Obviously, under those circumstances, everyone will have a great day. Adams, Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker, and Michael Mayer all caught a touchdown. Meyers also threw for one. It was a joyous occasion for the whole team, but Kansas City will make for a much tougher test. Adams led the way in targets, receptions, and yards, so he's the one to trust, despite L'Jarius Sneed on deck. Meyers moves into the top 36 with the offense playing better.
Josh Jacobs, Zamir White, Ameer Abdullah (RB, LV)
UPDATE: Josh Jacobs has officially been ruled out for Week 16. And in his place, Zamir White will once again start at running back in Week 16 for the Raiders instead of Jacobs, and makes for a solid RB2/FLEX option. Ameer Abdullah will be used as well, but is more of a deeper-league RB3/RB4 option for PPR leagues.
Another superstar tailback is set to return this week. Jacobs sat out their game in Week 15, allowing Zamir White to showcase what he can do. Jacobs gets a nice matchup against the Chiefs, and we know he'll see a massive workload even in his first contest off of injury. He jumps into the top 20, assuming he does suit up.
Injuries:
Josh Jacobs (quad/illness) - OUT
Michael Mayer (toe)
Mecole Hardman Jr. (thumb)
Jerick McKinnon (groin)
Kadarius Toney (hip)
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: Eagles -13.5
Implied Total: Giants (14.75) vs. Eagles (28.25)
Pace: Giants (16th) vs. Eagles (29th)
Giants Off. DVOA: -22.8% Pass (30th), -22.5% Rush (31st)
Eagles Off. DVOA: 23.7% Pass (10th), 6.1% Rush (6th)
Giants Def. DVOA: 9.7% Pass (18th), 1.9% Rush (28th)
Eagles Def. DVOA: 13.4% Pass (24th), -10.4% Rush (14th)
Matchups We Love:
Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI)
Hurts entered the game with an illness that had him questionable to play. He was still effective as a runner, carrying the ball 13 times for 82 yards and two touchdowns, but struggled to pass accurately with a 55% completion rate. At home with a full week to get healthy, he's of course locked in against New York.
Eagles WRs
The poor outing for Hurts as a passer meant mediocrity for the duo of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, neither of whom hit 60 yards. Brown still led the team in targets, so there's no issue there. However, Smith fell behind Dallas Goedert, which could be a result of the illness, the way the defense played, or merely a one-off, but the impact that Goedert had on his target share previously may be back. Brown is a must-start with Smith in the top 24.
UPDATE: Smith is good to go for Sunday.
Matchups We Hate:
Giants Passing Attack
Tommy Devito seemed to miss the amenities in New York, struggling to sustain offense in New Orleans. He didn't make any big mistakes, they just didn't convert enough third downs to keep drives alive. Darren Waller immediately earned six targets, hauling in four of them for 40 yards, which is a pretty good debut from injury. The matchup is favorable for the passing attack, especially the wide receivers, it's just hard to get too excited given the wide array of players targeted. Waller remains a streamer with Darius Slayton and Wan'Dale Robinson as flex options.
Saquon Barkley (RB, NYG)
With only 16 rushing attempts as a team, Barkley didn't see his usual allotment of touches, especially as a receiver where he had just two targets. Philly is going to be looking to dominate their division rivals with a desire to right the ship and win the division, so it's a tough spot and a bad matchup for Barkley, who falls outside the top 24.
Other Matchups:
D'Andre Swift (RB, PHI)
Like a broken record, it was another week of Swift losing work at the goal line to Hurts and sharing rushing attempts with Kenneth Gainwell. Swift capitalized on the easy matchup by averaging 4.1 yards per carry, but the checkdowns weren't there to boost his day. It's another great situation, but with those two actively involved and the history of Boston Scott showing up when they play the Giants, Swift slides outside the 15.
Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI)
As we alluded to above, Goedert finished second in targets with nine. He only caught four of them for 30 yards, but it's a positive sign for his usage. In a plus matchup, he moves into the top 12.
UPDATE: Smith is good to go for Sunday.
Injuries:
None
Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: 49ers -5.5
Implied Total: 49ers (26.25) vs. Ravens (20.75)
Pace: 49ers (32nd) vs. Ravens (28th)
49ers Off. DVOA: 70.5% Pass (1st), 17.3% Rush (3rd)
Ravens Off. DVOA: 22.7% Pass (13th), 25.5% Rush (1st)
49ers Def. DVOA: -13.2% Pass (4th), -7.9% Rush (18th)
Ravens Def. DVOA: -21.2% Pass (2nd), -14.6% Rush (8th)
Matchups We Love:
Christian McCaffrey (RB, SF)
If only McCaffrey could play Arizona every week. While twice a year is the limit, it's fantastic every time it happens. This week, we get the battle of arguably the two best teams in the NFL. Baltimore is an amazing defense, but McCaffrey is immune to matchups.
49ers WRs
Similar to McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel has been destroying defenses and scoring like crazy with seven touchdowns in the past three weeks. The question is more about Brandon Aiyuk, who has taken a backseat to Samuel. Fortunately, the Ravens are one of the few teams capable of competing with the 49ers, meaning they'll need to air out this week and Aiyuk warrants a spot in the top 20.
Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)
Jackson was a tactician against the Jaguars, meticulously driving his team down the field while chewing up a ton of time. That approach will be more difficult against San Francisco, but we do know they'll need to rely on him a lot if they're going to win.
Matchups We Hate:
Ravens RBs
Baltimore suffered another massive blow to their squad with the loss of Keaton Mitchell to a season-ending injury. It takes away that speed element of their offense, which they lack otherwise. It does open the door for Gus Edwards, who has a knack for falling into the end zone, and Justice Hill, who they already deployed in passing downs. Given the potential game script, Hill gets the lean here as a flex option, but neither is particularly intriguing given the matchup.
Other Matchups:
Brock Purdy (QB, SF)
Facing Baltimore and their elite defense will be a great test for Purdy, but all signs are that he's ready for it. He leads the league in nearly every passing category and has the best weapons in the NFL. He's also been a monster over their six-game winning streak. The range of outcomes is admittedly higher this week, but he's still in the top 10.
George Kittle (TE, SF)
Kittle still made his usual big play for 35 yards but also fell behind McCaffrey and Samuel. The Ravens have given up the ninth-most points to the tight end position over the last six weeks, so Kittle stays in the top 10.
Isaiah Likely (TE, BAL)
Likely made an extraordinary catch between two defenders and later scored. Likely has now delivered elite tight end numbers over the past two weeks, locking him into the top 12 despite a tougher matchup.
Ravens WRs
Neither Odell Beckham Jr. nor Zay Flowers were necessary for them to win. They pounded the rock 42 times and dominated the time of possession. Rashod Bateman produced more yards than either of those two, but taking a shot on Flowers or Beckham would be the wiser move. They should bounce back in a more competitive contest with Flowers as the favorite in the top 36 and Beckham not far behind.
Injuries:
Elijah Mitchell (knee)
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