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Welcome back RotoBallers to our Week 14 matchup analysis and Start Em, Sit Em column for fantasy football. We hope everyone is having a successful fantasy season so far! We're now in the stretch run, so it's time to lock in those playoff spots or play spoiler against your competitors! Let's take a look at this week's matchups.
For those who are not familiar, each week I'll be analyzing every game from the Sunday slate, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Be sure to check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information. Special thanks to PFF, RotoViz, RotoWire, Football Outsiders, FantasyPros, rbsdm.com, and Add More Funds for providing valuable information.
This year I will be covering the entire Sunday slate of games, and we will have separate articles for the Thursday Night Football matchups and Monday Night Football matchups. Be sure to read those as well. So join me as I help get your fantasy teams off to a strong start. If you have any additional lineup questions, follow me on Twitter @FAmmiranteTFJ and feel free to ask away. Let's get on to the matchups!
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Matchups Analysis - 1:00 ET Games
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team
Spread: Cowboys -4
Implied Total: Cowboys (26.0) vs. Football Team (22.0)
Pace: Cowboys (1st) vs. Football Team (19th)
Scheme: Cowboys (60% Pass, 40% Rush) vs. Football Team (54% Pass, 46% Rush)
Cowboys Off. DVOA: 29.2% Pass (8th), -5.2% Rush (12th)
Football Team Def. DVOA: 26.1% Pass (30th), -14.8% Rush (8th)
Cowboys Def. DVOA: -14.6% Pass (4th), -7.4 Rush (19th)
Football Team Off. DVOA: 21.3% Pass (11th), -15.8% Rush (27th)
Matchups We Love:
Antonio Gibson (RB, WAS)
The Washington Football team has transitioned into a run-heavy offense. Antonio Gibson has combined for 95 carries, 358 rushing yards (3.77 YPC), 14 receptions, 72 receiving yards, and three total touchdowns in his last four games. During that stretch, Gibson has finished as RB6, RB20, RB11, and RB6. While J.D. McKissic will be back to take away passing game usage, this has become Gibson's backfield. The Cowboys rank 19th in Rush EPA, so this is an exploitable matchup. Look for Gibson to continue to receive RB1 usage.
Matchups We Hate:
Cowboys RBs
Ezekiel Elliott clearly does not look like himself. He's combined for only 244 rushing yards on 71 carries (3.44 YPC). Zeke has failed to eclipse 50 rushing yards in four consecutive games. His touchdown equity and passing game usage is keeping his fantasy value afloat, but he's starting to lose touches to Tony Pollard (23 touches in last two games). That's bad news against a Washington defense that ranks 15th in Rush EPA, allowing 3.96 yards per carry (11th). Pollard missed Wednesday's practice with a foot injury, so monitor his status.
Dalton Schultz (TE, DAL)
I'm worried about Dalton Schultz in this matchup because the Cowboys will have a healthy set of pass-catchers for one of the few times this season. Amari Cooper played last week, but he was not given his regular workload. With Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup each healthy, there are too many mouths to feed in this offense. That does not bode well against a Washington team that has been highly successful in sustaining long drives since their bye week. They have led in time of possession 150:09 to 89:51 throughout this winning streak. If this trend continues, we could see limited volume for the Cowboys' pass-catchers. I'm betting on Schultz as the odd man out.
Taylor Heinicke (QB, WAS)
Taylor Heinicke has played some sound football during this winning streak, moving the chains and limiting turnovers. Unfortunately, that has resulted in a decrease in fantasy production, especially since Washington is more run-heavy now. Heinicke would need to be playing from behind in order to hit his ceiling in this spot. He takes on a Cowboys defense that ranks 4th in Dropback EPA, making this a tough matchup. I'd look elsewhere if I needed a streamer.
Other Matchups:
Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)
Dak Prescott takes on a Washington defense allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, but temper your expectations because this has been an improved unit of late. During their four-game winning streak, Washington is giving up 6.96 yards per attempt (T-20th) with only 18 points per game. While you're still firing up Dak as a Top-12 option, he looks like more of a low-end QB1 in this tough road matchup.
CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL)
CeeDee Lamb returned to action last week and looked terrific, catching 7-of-13 targets for 89 yards. Lamb is tied for 18th in Expected Fantasy Points per Game, which leads Cowboys' wideouts. He's also averaged 2.0 Fantasy Points Above Expectation per Game, which ranks 12th in the NFL. This is a receiver who excels at generating separation. However, Washington ranks 11th in PPR per game allowed to wideouts. Add in the risk of decreased passing volume and you have a lukewarm option in Lamb.
Amari Cooper (WR, DAL)
Amari Cooper (34.29% snap share) played a limited role in his return last week, but he figures to see regular usage this time around. Cooper has put up an 18.36% target share, which ranks 2nd on the team. This makes him more of a risky option than Lamb because of this game environment. We can consider him more of a mid-to-low-end WR2 in this spot. However, we all know how Cooper is capable of breaking the slate with a ceiling game on any given week, so you still need to fire him up.
Michael Gallup (WR, DAL)
Michael Gallup has combined for 18 receptions, 228 yards, and a touchdown in four games since returning from injury. However, none of those games featured the Cowboys' offense at full strength, so we need to temper our expectations for this matchup. Gallup is a distant third among these wideouts. However, his 11.3 average target depth gives him the opportunity for a big play at any moment, so he's a lukewarm WR3 in this spot.
Terry McLaurin (WR, WAS)
Terry McLaurin continues to be one of the biggest boom-or-bust wideouts in fantasy football. He's put up seven finishes outside the Top-30 (including five outside of the Top-50) mixed with four Top-7 finishes. McLaurin has combined for 18 receptions, 235 yards, and one touchdown during this four-game winning streak. He'll likely need Washington to play from behind in order to approach his ceiling in this spot. Dallas is tied for 19th in PPR per game allowed to wideouts, so this is an exploitable matchup. There's also a chance at an uptick in targets with Logan Thomas out for this game. Having said that, I need to leave McLaurin in the lukewarm section given the volatile production.
Ricky Seals-Jones (TE, WAS)
Ricky Seals-Jones immediately vaults back into the streaming conversation in Logan Thomas' absence. Seals-Jones had phenomenal usage for a tight end when Thomas was last out of the lineup, putting up three games with six or more targets. It's clear that the tight end plays a major role for offensive coordinator Scott Turner's offense, making Seals-Jones an intriguing play. Dallas ranks 21st in PPR per game allowed to tight ends. I'm only leaving Seals-Jones in the lukewarm section due to his lack of track record, but you can absolutely go there if you're desperate at tight end.
Injuries:
DAL RB Tony Pollard (foot)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
Spread: Titans -9
Implied Total: Jaguars (17.5) vs. Titans (26.5)
Pace: Jaguars (3rd) vs. Titans (16th)
Scheme: Jaguars (56% Pass, 44% Rush) vs. Titans (53% Pass, 47% Rush)
Jaguars Off. DVOA: -8.4% Pass (29th), -5.4% Rush (13th)
Titans Def. DVOA: 8.9% Pass (19th), -5.3% Rush (22nd)
Jaguars Def. DVOA: 30.1% Pass (31st), -9.7% Rush (17th)
Titans Off. DVOA: 6.1% Pass (23rd), -7.1% Rush (16th)
Matchups We Love:
Julio Jones (WR, TEN)
Julio Jones is expected to return to the lineup, which is huge for a Titans team desperate for playmakers with Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown out of the lineup. You have to think Julio will see a full workload because of how badly the Titans need him. The veteran gets a terrific matchup against a Jaguars defense allowing 9.14 yards per target to wideouts, which ranks 30th in the NFL. Julio looks like an upside WR3 in this spot.
UPDATE: Julio Jones has officially been activated from IR and will play.
Matchups We Hate:
Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAX)
Another week, another abysmal showing from Trevor Lawrence, who threw for 145 yards on only 5.2 yards per attempt against the Los Angeles Rams. While this is an easier matchup against a Titans defense that ranks 17th in Dropback EPA, Lawrence has been easily one of the worst starters in the NFL. This is a player who badly needs a reset in the offseason. Hopefully he shows some signs of life here, but you're not playing him in fantasy unless you're desperate in SuperFlex formats.
Other Matchups:
James Robinson (RB, JAX)
James Robinson is the only fantasy-relevant skill player on this Jaguars offense. Robinson was benched for a fumble last week, limited to only eight carries and 24 yards while catching 1-of-4 targets for 11 yards. We can expect Robinson to be the focal point in this spot. It's likely that the Jaguars' coaching staff will try to feed Robinson here, especially when his benching received so much public attention. The Titans rank 20th in Rush EPA, so the matchup is there. Consider Robinson as an upside RB2, but temper your expectations given the low implied team total.
Ryan Tannehill (QB, TEN)
Ryan Tannehill gets Julio Jones back just in time for a terrific matchup against a Jaguars defense that ranks 31st in Dropback EPA. The problem here is that we might not see enough volume, as the Titans figure to go run-heavy in this spot since the Jaguars defense is also porous against the run. Tannehill has three Top-10 finishes under his belt, so he's definitely a viable streamer here. I'm just advising you to temper your expectations.
Titans RBs
D'Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard combined for 240 yards on the ground when we last saw them against the Patriots before the bye week. Jeremy McNichols looks ready to return, which could complicate things in this backfield, leaving them in the lukewarm section. However, this is a terrific game script with the Titans projected to control this game as nine-point favorites. Look for a run-heavy approach, it's just hard to see how the usage will play out. Will it be Foreman or Hilliard? How much of a role will McNichols have? They take on a Jaguars defense that ranks 26th in Rush EPA, so this is a smash spot.
Injuries:
JAX RB James Robinson (heel/knee)
Additional Notes:
The Jaguars pass-catchers are only relevant as punt plays in DFS tournaments.
Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans
Spread: Seahawks -7.5
Implied Total: Seahawks (24.5) vs. Texans (17.0)
Pace: Seahawks (15th) vs. Texans (23rd)
Scheme: Seahawks (56% Pass, 44% Rush) vs. Texans (54% Pass, 46% Rush)
Seahawks Off. DVOA: 14.6% Pass (17th), -8.7% Rush (18th)
Texans Def. DVOA: -4.8% Pass (6th), -2.9% Rush (28st)
Seahawks Def. DVOA: 16.9% Pass (26th), -13.7% Rush (10th)
Texans Off. DVOA: -21.4% Pass (32nd), -43.4% Rush (32nd)
Matchups We Love:
There aren't any matchups to love in this game.
Matchups We Hate:
Brandin Cooks (WR, HOU)
Brandin Cooks was only able to catch 3-of-6 targets for 38 yards against the Colts. He's now failed to eclipse 50 yards in four of his last six games. This offense is an absolute dumpster fire right now. We're not sure if Tyrod Taylor or Davis Mills will be starting. Mills would be better for Cooks' outlook, as the rookie peppered him with targets earlier in the year. The Seahawks rank 9th in PPR per game allowed to wideouts, so this is a tough matchup. Steer clear of this offense.
Other Matchups:
Russell Wilson (QB, SEA)
Russell Wilson played a bit better against the 49ers last week, completing 30-of-37 passes for 231 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. He takes on a Texans defense that ranks 23rd in Dropback EPA, but there might not be enough volume for Wilson to get there with strong production. I would expect the Seahawks to try to establish the run here, especially as 7.5-point road favorites. They should be able to control this game, resulting in fewer pass attempts for Wilson. Having said that, the matchup is there, so he stays in the lukewarm section.
Rashaad Penny (RB, SEA)
Rashaad Penny looks like the preferred option in this backfield. It's Alex Collin's first game back from injury and Adrian Peterson is out. Penny led the running backs in snap share against the 49ers last week. The Seahawks are 7.5-point favorites, so this projects as a positive game script for Penny. The Texans rank 31st in Rush EPA, so it's a great matchup. Penny is on the RB2 radar in this spot.
D.K. Metcalf (WR, SEA)
You just get the sense that D.K. Metcalf is about to have a breakout game. He's coming off a modest game against the 49ers, where he caught 5-of-8 targets for 60 yards. He was tackled at the one-yard line in this game. The Seahawks had talked about getting Metcalf more involved prior to that game and they did with eight targets. The Texans rank 22nd in PPR per game allowed to wide receivers, making this a good spot for Metcalf. Fire him up as an upside WR2. However, keep an eye on his status, as he's dealing with a foot issue.
Tyler Lockett (WR, SEA)
Tyler Lockett caught 7-of-8 targets for 68 yards and a touchdown against the 49ers last week. He's now combined for 28 receptions, 444 yards, and one touchdown in his last five games. While he could easily be the one going off instead of Metcalf this week, I think we're due for a big Metcalf game because of the way the team has talked about getting him more involved. I'll leave Lockett in the lukewarm section since it's tough to see two Seahawks wideouts hitting their ceiling in a projected run-heavy game script.
Injuries:
SEA WR D.K. Metcalf (foot)
Additional Notes:
The Texans running game and quarterbacks are not fantasy-relevant.
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs -10
Implied Total: Raiders (19.0) vs. Chiefs (29.0)
Pace: Raiders (21st) vs. Chiefs (5th)
Scheme: Raiders (61% Pass, 39% Rush) vs. Chiefs (61% Pass, 39% Rush)
Raiders Off. DVOA: 18.0% Pass (14th), -13.8% Rush (23rd)
Chiefs Def. DVOA: 9.3% Pass (20th), -4.2% Rush (26th)
Raiders Def. DVOA: 14.2% Pass (23rd), -12.3% Rush (12th)
Chiefs Off. DVOA: 24.3% Pass (9th), 2.8% Rush (5th)
Matchups We Love:
Josh Jacobs (RB, LV)
Josh Jacobs is finally getting passing game usage, totaling 25 targets in his last four games. He's combined for 72 touches during that span. Kenyan Drake suffered a season-ending injury in last week's loss, so Jacobs should be in line for a heavy workload. He goes up against a Chiefs defense that just allowed Javonte Williams to put up six receptions, 178 total yards, and a touchdown. Kansas City ranks 27th in Rush EPA. The Raiders are 10-point underdogs, but I expect Jacobs to rack up a few check-down receptions.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
Travis Kelce is coming off a down week against the Broncos, catching 3-of-8 targets for 27 yards. Luckily, he has a perfect chance at a bounce-back against a Raiders defense allowing the second-most PPR per game to tight ends. The last time these two teams met, Kelce put up eight receptions for 119 yards. In fact, Kelce has posted 90 or more yards in five straight games against the Raiders. Kelce has a chance to go nuclear in this spot.
Matchups We Hate:
Derek Carr (QB, LV)
During the Chiefs' five-game winning streak, opposing quarterbacks have the following fantasy finishes: QB13, QB19, QB9, QB29, and QB21. Carr is the quarterback who finished as QB9, but it's hard to like him as a streamer on the road with a 19-point implied team total. While we could see more volume as the Raiders try to keep pace, I'm not willing to go to Carr in this spot. Kansas City's defense is playing too well right now. There's also a relatively high chance that Darren Waller is out for another week.
UPDATE: Darren Waller has officially been ruled out for Week 14.
Other Matchups:
Hunter Renfrow (WR, LV)
Hunter Renfrow has been a revelation this season, especially of late as he's finished in the Top-14 in four of his last five games. The slot man has combined for 17 receptions and 136 yards in his last two games, totaling double-digit targets in both contests. He's become a machine in PPR formats. You have to love his floor in this spot as the top target in a pass-heavy offense trying to play from behind. Having said that, Kansas City is allowing the eighth-fewest PPR per game to wideouts, so I'll leave Renfrow in the lukewarm section. I think this is more of a Jacobs game.
Foster Moreau (TE, LV)
Foster Moreau was disappointing as a fill-in for Waller last week, catching just 1-of-3 targets for 34 yards. He ran routes (23) on 48.9% of his snaps, which ranked 19th among tight ends, making him more of a middling streamer than a great one. Moreau takes on a Chiefs defense that ranks 25th in PPR per game allowed to tight ends, so this is an exploitable matchup. I'm more interested in going with Moreau in DFS because recency bias will likely have opponents avoiding him. I'll leave him in the lukewarm section as a desperation streamer in season-long formats.
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
Patrick Mahomes has been one of the most disappointing quarterbacks in the NFL this season. He's finished outside of the Top-15 quarterbacks in five of his last six games. The one game he didn't was against these Raiders on Sunday Night Football, where he shredded them for 406 yards and five touchdowns. The Raiders rank 27th in Dropback EPA, making this a good matchup. While there's a chance that he has another big game against this team, I still have to leave him in the lukewarm section given his recent middling production.
Chiefs RBs
Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams are in a great spot as 10-point home favorites against a Raiders defense that ranks 7th in Rush EPA, but tied for 29th in PPR per game allowed to running backs. The last time these two teams met, Williams caught all nine of his targets for 101 yards. Last week, CEH (50%) and Williams (45%) essentially split the workload, which keeps these backs in the lukewarm section. I prefer CEH, but it's hard to see a path where any of these backs hits their ceiling in this spot.
Tyreek Hill (WR, KC)
Tyreek Hill was limited to two receptions for 22 yards against the Broncos. He's now failed to clear 100 yards in eight consecutive games. It's crazy how an explosive deep threat like Hill has become a target hog who gets peppered in the intermediate passing game, but that's what has happened to this Chiefs offense. The Raiders rank 5th in PPR per game allowed to wideouts, so this matchup isn't as good as Kelce's, keeping Hill in the lukewarm section.
Injuries:
LV TE Darren Waller (knee/back)
New Orleans Saints at New York Jets
Spread: Saints -5
Implied Total: Saints (24.25) vs. Jets (19.25)
Pace: Saints (12th) vs. Jets (18th)
Scheme: Saints (54% Pass, 46% Rush) vs. Jets (57% Pass, 43% Rush)
Saints Off. DVOA: 15.8% Pass (16th), -13.8% Rush (24th)
Jets Def. DVOA: 31.6% Pass (32nd), -1.7% Rush (30th)
Saints Def. DVOA: 4.8% Pass (12th), -29.4% Rush (1st)
Jets Off. DVOA: -4.4% Pass (25th), -6.3% Rush (15th)
Matchups We Love:
Taysom Hill (QB, NO)
I understand that Taysom Hill is currently dealing with a finger injury. I also get that he's not a very good real-life quarterback. However, whenever he's gotten a chance to take the reins as starter, he's provided strong fantasy production. Hill is coming off a QB8 finish against the Cowboys, buoyed by his 11 rushes for 101 yards. He should be able to find more success on the ground against a Jets defense that ranks 28th in Rush EPA.
Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)
Alvin Kamara looks all set to return to action. Surprisingly, the Saints are still in the NFC playoff race, even with their mediocre 5-7 record. This really reflects how weak the NFC is overall this season. Expect the Saints to really lean on Kamara in this must-win game against an inferior opponent. While Taysom Hill's presence downgrades Kamara's target upside and touchdown equity, you have to love this spot against a Jets defense allowing the most PPR per game to opposing running backs.
Matchups We Hate:
Jets RBs
Tevin Coleman is currently in concussion protocol, while Michael Carter is still on injured reserve. That would leave Ty Johnson as the main back for the Jets. The problem is that this is a horrendous matchup against a Saints defense that ranks 1st in Rush EPA. The good news is that Johnson has demonstrated the ability to catch passes (four games with five or more targets). I suggest staying away from this situation.
UPDATE: Tevin Coleman has officially been ruled out for Week 14.
Other Matchups:
Zach Wilson (QB, NYJ)
Don't look now, but Zach Wilson is quietly showing signs of life, at least as a fantasy producer. The rookie quarterback has is coming off a QB7 finish against the Eagles. While this is inflated by his rushing touchdown, it demonstrates how his skillset is fantasy-friendly due to his mobility and gun-slinging nature. Wilson takes on a Saints defense that ranks 9th in Dropback EPA, but I think the volume will be there with the Jets' projected struggles on the ground. I'm willing to look towards Wilson as a streamer in SuperFlex or DFS tournament play this week.
Elijah Moore (WR, NYJ)
Elijah Moore has evolved into a borderline fantasy WR1 with how dominant he's been lately. The rookie has combined for 28 receptions, 392 yards, and five touchdowns in his last five games. Corey Davis is now out for the season, so it's wheels up for Moore for the rest of the season. He goes up against a Saints defense allowing the fifth-most PPR per game to wide receivers, so this is a terrific matchup. However, he's missed practice all week with a quad issue, which casts doubts on his chances of suiting up this week. This keeps him in the lukewarm section. If Moore can't go, Jamison Crowder would be in line for more work.
UPDATE: Elijah Moore is officially been ruled out for Week 14 and placed on IR.
Injuries:
NO RB Mark Ingram (COVID-19)
NYJ RB Tevin Coleman (concussion)
NYJ WR Elijah Moore (quad)
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
Spread: Panthers -2.5
Implied Total: Falcons (20.0) vs. Panthers (22.5)
Pace: Falcons (14th) vs. Panthers (20th)
Scheme: Falcons (58% Pass, 42% Rush) vs. Panthers (52% Pass, 48% Rush)
Falcons Off. DVOA: -5.1% Pass (26th), -34.0% Rush (31st)
Panthers Def. DVOA: -5.4% Pass (5th), -6.1% Rush (20th)
Falcons Def. DVOA: 21.9% Pass (29th), -5.5% Rush (21st)
Panthers Off. DVOA: -18.8% Pass (31st), -9.5% Rush (19th)
Matchups We Love:
Cordarrelle Patterson (RB, ATL)
Cordarrelle Patterson is coming off a down game against the Bucs, but he was still efficient, rushing 13 times for 78 yards (6.0 YPC) while catching 3-of-5 targets for 18 yards. He's the focal point of this offense and should be considered on the RB1/2 fringe going forward. Patterson goes up against a Panthers defense that ranks 6th in Rush EPA, but I'm not too concerned about that because he's so dynamic and can make a major impact in the passing game. Patterson is the only player to love in this matchup.
Matchups We Hate:
Matt Ryan (QB, ATL)
It's tough to get too excited about Matt Ryan right now. The veteran has finished as QB35, QB30, QB24, and QB18 in his last four games. He now takes on a Panthers defense that ranks 5th in Dropback EPA. Carolina just fired offensive coordinator Joe Brady because he wasn't committing to the running game enough. If the Panthers go run-heavy, that could result in a decrease in passing volume for the Falcons. That isn't good news for a struggling quarterback in a tough matchup.
Panthers RBs
The Falcons have actually been pretty solid against the run, ranking 5th in Rush EPA. This is a muddled situation with Chuba Hubbard and Ameer Abdullah. I would expect Hubbard to take the lead on early downs with Abdullah functioning as the pass-catching back, but it's a bit unclear. That has me steering clear of this situation, especially when you factor in Cam Newton vulturing rushing touchdowns.
Other Matchups:
Russell Gage (WR, ATL)
It's crazy to say this, but Russell Gage has become more of a reliable pass-catcher than Kyle Pitts in this offense. Gage has caught 17-of-19 targets for 192 yards and a touchdown in his last two games. He goes up against a Panthers defense allowing the sixth-fewest PPR per game to wideouts, but I expect them to focus on Pitts, leaving some underneath targets available for Gage. Gage looks like a lukewarm WR3 in this spot.
Kyle Pitts (TE, ATL)
Kyle Pitts has struggled lately, combining for 238 yards in his last six games. The rookie has had a tough time dealing with so much defensive attention with Calvin Ridley out of the lineup. Pitts now goes up against a Panthers defense that ranks 11th in PPR per game allowed to tight ends. I have to leave him in the lukewarm section due to his mediocre recent production, but I'd suggest continuing to fire him up given his upside at such a weak position.
Cam Newton (QB, CAR)
Cam Newton was awful against the Dolphins prior to last week's bye, completing 5-of-21 passes at 4.4 yards per attempt with two interceptions. I would expect a better effort in an exploitable matchup against a Falcons defense that ranks 28th in Dropback EPA. I also think that the Panthers will go run-heavy in this game, resulting in more carries for Newton. While I can't put him in the 'Love' section after his last performance, I do think he's a viable streamer this week.
D.J. Moore (WR, CAR)
It's a shame that we've been deprived of a massive D.J. Moore season due to poor quarterback play and porous pass-blocking, but that's where we are right now. Moore is coming off a strong game against the Dolphins, where he caught 4-of-10 targets for 103 yards, but even in that game, you see the inefficiency (40% catch rate). This is a good matchup against a Falcons defense that ranks 26th in PPR per game allowed to wideouts, but I have to leave Moore in the lukewarm section due to his recent volatile production and likely run-heavy approach on offense.
Injuries:
There aren't any fantasy-relevant injuries in this game.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Spread: Browns -2.5
Implied Total: Ravens (19.75) vs. Browns (22.25)
Pace: Ravens (30th) vs. Browns (24th)
Scheme: Ravens (51% Pass, 49% Rush) vs. Browns (51% Pass, 49% Rush)
Ravens Off. DVOA: 7.0% Pass (22nd), 1.1% Rush (7th)
Browns Def. DVOA: 9.7% Pass (21st), -11.1% Rush (13th)
Ravens Def. DVOA: 17.3% Pass (27th), -17.5% Rush (5th)
Browns Off. DVOA: 11.8% Pass (19th), 9.0% Rush (3rd)
Matchups We Love:
Marquise Brown (WR, BAL)
Marquise Brown snapped a four-game streak with double-digit targets last week, as he was limited to five receptions for 55 yards against the Steelers. Now he goes up against a Browns defense that is tied for 18th in PPR per game allowed to wide receivers. Brown caught eight passes last time these two teams met. While it was only for 51 yards, you have to like the volume. Cleveland is a pass-funnel defense, which bodes well for Brown.
Mark Andrews (TE, BAL)
Mark Andrews remains an elite tight end option every week. He's racked up 47 targets in his last five games, which is phenomenal volume at such a weak position. The only reason why we haven't seen any ceiling games is because this offense is struggling right now. The Browns rank 14th in PPR per game allowed to tight ends, so the matchup is average, but you have to love the volume here. Consider Andrews as a Top-3 tight end.
Jarvis Landry (WR, CLE)
Jarvis Landry caught 6-of-10 targets for 111 yards against these Ravens before last week's bye. Baltimore just lost top cornerback Marlon Humphrey to a season-ending injury. Baltimore is allowing 8.7 yards per target to wideouts, which ranks 24th in the NFL. Landry has racked up 18 targets in his last two games. The Ravens are a pass-funnel defense and Landry is the top target in this passing game. Fire him up as a rock-solid WR3 in this spot.
Matchups We Hate:
Rashod Bateman (WR, BAL)
The dynasty community's favorite rookie wideout has fallen on hard times recently, catching 7-of-11 targets for 60 yards in his last three games. While Bateman has shown potential through his ability to command targets (34 targets in his previous five), it's hard to trust him given his lack of production of late. I would look elsewhere if you needed a WR4 in your lineup. Wait until we see the Ravens show some signs of busting out of their slump on offense.
Other Matchups:
Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)
Lamar Jackson simply has not gotten it done as a fantasy quarterback lately, finishing as QB11, QB26, and QB12 in his last three games. The Browns have an imposing pass-rush led by Myles Garrett (14 sacks) that could cause fits for Lamar. Jackson has also thrown eight interceptions in his last four games, so he's really hit a wall right now. While you're still firing him up as a QB1, he's not an elite option right now, even against a Browns defense that ranks 21st in Dropback EPA.
Devonta Freeman (RB, BAL)
Devonta Freeman has established himself as the preferred back in Baltimore. You have to love his passing game usage, as the veteran back has racked up 19 targets in his last four games, eight of which came against the Steelers last week. The Browns rank 22nd in Rush EPA, so this is an exploitable matchup. We could also see Freeman continue to put up check-down catches with the way Baltimore has recently struggled on offense. Consider Freeman as a solid RB2/FLEX in this matchup.
Baker Mayfield (QB, CLE)
Baker Mayfield has not gotten it done this season, finishing outside of the Top-12 in five of his last six games, including three games outside of the Top-20. However, this could be a good spot for him coming out of the bye to take on a pass-funnel Ravens defense that just lost its best cornerback. I think we could see Mayfield find deep-threat Donovan Peoples-Jones downfield in this exploitable matchup. Mayfield is a lukewarm FLEX option in SuperFlex, but I'm not ready to fire him up as a streamer in traditional formats.
Browns RBs
Nick Chubb is a low-end RB1 every week due to his absurd efficiency, but this profiles as more of a Kareem Hunt game. This is because the Ravens are much better defending the run, which could lead to more passing volume, favoring Hunt due to his usage as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. I'd still rank Chubb over Hunt, but the game environment puts this outcome as more likely than usual. Baltimore ranks 8th in Rush EPA, so it could be tough for efficiency on the ground. Having said that, I expect the Browns to win this game, which would result in a positive game script for these backs. I'd keep them in the lukewarm section.
Austin Hooper (TE, CLE)
Austin Hooper immediately emerges on the streaming radar with David Njoku has been placed on the COVID-19 list, which makes him doubtful to play this week. Hooper goes up against a Ravens defense that ranks 29th in PPR per game allowed to tight ends. I think Hooper is a viable streamer in a game where we could see more passing volume than usual for Cleveland. Fire him up if you're desperate at tight end.
Injuries:
CLE TE David Njoku (COVID-19)
Matchups Analysis - 4:00 ET Games
New York Giants at Los Angeles Chargers
Spread: Chargers -10.5
Implied Total: Giants (16.75) vs. Chargers (27.25)
Pace: Giants (13th) vs. Chargers (2nd)
Scheme: Giants (60% Pass, 40% Rush) vs. Chargers (63% Pass, 37% Rush)
Giants Off. DVOA: -5.5% Pass (27th), -17.5% Rush (28th)
Chargers Def. DVOA: 2.3% Pass (9th), 2.2% Rush (32nd)
Giants Def. DVOA: 0.8% Pass (8th), -1.0% Rush (31st)
Chargers Off. DVOA: 32.2% Pass (6th), -3.5% Rush (10th)
Matchups We Love:
Austin Ekeler (RB, LAC)
Austin Ekeler is set for a monster workload with Keenan Allen (COVID-19) out for this game. It wouldn't surprise me to see Ekeler get double-digit targets in this spot. It sets up as a terrific game script with the Chargers as 10.5-point home favorites against Mike Glennon and the Giants. The Giants rank 30th in Rush EPA. Add in Ekeler's high touchdown equity (15 total touchdowns) and you have the overall RB1 for Week 14.
Mike Williams (WR, LAC)
Keenan Allen is out for this game, which puts Mike Williams in line for a nice workload. Jalen Guyton would be the preferred play over Josh Palmer as a Chargers ancillary wideout, as the former is coming off his best game of the season, catching all four of his targets for 90 yards and a touchdown. Perhaps we'll see Big Mike used as he was earlier in the season with more intermediate targets, with Guyton functioning as the deep threat.
Jared Cook (TE, LAC)
With Keenan Allen out, you could see Jared Cook become one of the primary targets in the passing game. We're likely to see the Chargers run more two-tight end sets and perhaps even lining up Cook in the slot. While the veteran has been underwhelming this year (36 receptions, 400 yards, three touchdowns), you have to like the situation here. The Giants rank 18th in PPR per game allowed to tight ends.
Matchups We Hate:
Giants WRs
It's hard to like any of the Giants wideouts with Mike Glennon under center. This team has a 16.75-implied team total, which is the lowest on the slate. Points will be hard to come by, especially through the air against a Chargers defense allowing the fourth-fewest PPR per game to wideouts. Sterling Shepard (quad) got in a limited practice on Wednesday, while Kenny Golladay (rib) and Kadarius Toney (oblique) were absent. Shepard would be the preferred option of an uninspiring group.
UPDATE: Kadarius Toney has been ruled out, and Sterling Shepard will make his return.
Other Matchups:
Saquon Barkley (RB, NYG)
Saquon Barkley delivered another disappointing performance against the Dolphins, rushing 11 times for 55 yards while catching 6-of-9 targets for 19 yards. The Giants aren't projected to score many points in this game with Jake Fromm under center. However, I need to leave Barkley in the lukewarm section because of how the Chargers have struggled defending the run. They rank 29th in Rush EPA this season. I also expect Fromm to feed Barkley with check-downs in this game. Consider Barkley as an upside RB2 here.
Evan Engram (TE, NYG)
Evan Engram caught 4-of-5 targets for 61 yards against the Dolphins last week. He's now racked up 11 targets in two games with Freddie Kitchens as the playcaller. You might see Engram act as the safety outlet for Jake Fromm in this matchup, which is an exploitable one. The Chargers are tied for 27th in PPR per game allowed to tight ends. The problem here is that the touchdown upside is low, which keeps Engram in the lukewarm section.
Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)
Justin Herbert carved up the Bengals defense last week, throwing for 317 yards and three touchdowns, but it's hard to love him in a game without Keenan Allen. The Chargers also likely won't need to air it out in this game, as they should be able to control it and win by a comfortable margin. You're still firing up Herbert as a QB1, but this looks like more of a floor week. The Giants defense is better against the pass, as they rank 14th in Dropback EPA. This keeps Herbert as a lukewarm option.
Injuries:
NYG WR Sterling Shepard (quad)
NYG WR Kenny Golladay (ribs)
NYG WR Kadarius Toney (oblique)
LAC WR Keenan Allen (COVID-19)
LAC WR Mike Williams (COVID-19)
Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos
Spread: Broncos -7.5
Implied Total: Lions (17.25) vs. Broncos (24.75)
Pace: Lions (25th) vs. Broncos (31st)
Scheme: Lions (51% Pass, 49% Rush) vs. Broncos (56% Pass, 44% Rush)
Lions Off. DVOA: -15.4% Pass (30th), -13.7% Rush (22nd)
Broncos Def. DVOA: 7.6% Pass (16th), -4.4% Rush (25th)
Lions Def. DVOA: 21.7% Pass (28th), -5.0% Rush (23rd)
Broncos Off. DVOA: 18.2% Pass (13th), -5.9% Rush (14th)
Matchups We Love:
Javonte Williams (RB, DEN)
Javonte Williams was handed the keys to the Broncos backfield last week and he did not disappoint, rushing 23 times for 102 yards while catching 6-of-9 targets for 76 yards and a touchdown. While Melvin Gordon, has returned to practice, you have to think the usage sways towards Williams after what he did last week. Even if it doesn't, this is still a terrific matchup against a Lions defense that ranks 17th in Rush EPA. This projects as a positive game script with the Broncos as 7.5-point home favorites.
Matchups We Hate:
Jared Goff (QB, DET)
Jared Goff had a better outing against the Vikings last week, completing 25-of-41 passes for 296 yards and three touchdowns. However, it's hard to even consider him as anything more than a desperation FLEX in SuperFlex format. For one, he's been one of the worst fantasy quarterbacks in the NFL. Secondly, the Broncos rank 8th in Dropback EPA. Let's also remember that this is a pace-down game with both teams slowing the game down. Avoid Goff.
T.J. Hockenson (TE, DET)
T.J. Hockenson has found the endzone in consecutive games, catching 7-of-11 targets for 84 yards during that stretch. He goes up against a Broncos defense allowing the second-fewest PPR per game to tight ends, which makes this a matchup to avoid. This defense just limited Travis Kelce to only three receptions and 27 yards. While tight end is a weak position, I'd be willing to bench Hockenson if I had a decent backup.
UPDATE: T.J. Hockenson has officially been listed as doubtful for Week 14.
Teddy Bridgewater (QB, DEN)
Teddy Bridgewater is in a terrific matchup against a Lions defense that ranks 30th in Pass EPA. However, I just can't get behind streaming him with the way that he's playing right now. Bridgewater has finished outside of the Top-20 quarterbacks in three of his last five games. Both of these teams are among the slowest-paced teams in the league, which could limit passing volume. We could also see the Broncos go more run-heavy in this one, especially if they're able to control this game. That's why I'm not interested in Bridgewater as a streamer this week.
Other Matchups:
Jamaal Williams (RB, DET)
Jamaal Williams rushed 17 times for 71 yards and caught his one target for nine yards against the Vikings last week. He'll be back on the radar as a volume-based, low-end RB2 if D'Andre Swift can't come back for this game. The Broncos rank 21st in Rush EPA, so there's a chance that Williams can put up efficient production here. We have also seen the Lions go with a run-heavy approach since Dan Campbell took over as play-caller. Having said that, Williams is just a lukewarm option given the team's low implied team total.
UPDATE: Jamaal Williams (COVID) and D'Andre Swift have been ruled out for Week 14. Jermar Jefferson is expected to be the next man up.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET)
Amon-Ra St. Brown has established himself as the preferred option in this passing game, combining for catching four passes in four consecutive games, including 10 receptions against the Vikings last week. We can project St. Brown to lead the team in targets, especially if Swift can't go for this one. The rookie goes up against a Broncos defense allowing the eighth-fewest PPR per game to wideouts, but the volume keeps St. Brown in the lukewarm section.
Broncos WRs
It's crazy that one of the most talented receiving corps in the NFL has been one of the worst situations in fantasy football, but that's where we're at right now due to Teddy Bridgewater's poor play. This is a terrific matchup for Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and Tim Patrick against a Lions defense allowing 9.22 yards per target to opposing wideouts, which ranks 31st in the NFL. I'd rank them as: 1) Jeudy, 2) Sutton, and 3) Patrick. They're in the lukewarm section because of their poor recent production.
Noah Fant (TE, DEN)
Noah Fant has fallen on hard times since returning from injury, catching 12-of-14 targets for 104 yards in his last three games. This game sets up as another big game for the Broncos' runners, so Fant will stay in the lukewarm section. I fully expect the Broncos to emphasize the run in this one. The Lions have been better defending tight ends this year, ranking 15th in PPR per game allowed to the position. I'll keep Fant in the lukewarm section because he has a better matchup than Hockenson.
Injuries:
DET RB D'Andre Swift (shoulder)
DET RB Jamaal Williams (COVID)
San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: Bengals -1.5
Implied Total: 49ers (23.5) vs. Bengals (25.0)
Pace: 49ers (26th) vs. Bengals (29th)
Scheme: 49ers (50% Pass, 50% Rush) vs. Bengals (57% Pass, 43% Rush)
49ers Off. DVOA: 34.1% Pass (4th), 2.6% Rush (6th)
Bengals Def. DVOA: 8.7% Pass (18th), -13.6% Rush (11th)
49ers Def. DVOA: 7.9% Pass (17th), -20.7% Rush (3rd)
Bengals Off. DVOA: 1.9% Pass (24th), -9.5% Rush (20th)
Matchups We Love:
George Kittle (TE, SF)
George Kittle is coming off a monster game against the Seahawks where he caught 9-of-12 targets for 181 yards and two touchdowns. He's now found the endzone in four of his last five games. Deebo Samuel's status remains in doubt, so we can safely project similar high usage for Kittle. The star tight end goes up against a Bengals defense that is tied for 12th in PPR per game allowed to the position, but this is a bet on talent and volume over matchup.
Ja'Marr Chase (WR, CIN)
Ja'Marr Chase has hit the rookie wall, failing to eclipse 50 yards in four of his last five games. He's taken a backseat to Tee Higgins during that span. However, Higgins has been limited by an ankle injury this week. He was able to get in a practice on Thursday, but there's a chance that this injury can affect his play, which opens the door back up for Chase. Chase goes up against a 49ers defense that ranks 16th in PPR per game allowed to wideouts.
Matchups We Hate:
Jimmy Garoppolo (QB, SF)
Jimmy Garoppolo goes up against a Bengals defense that ranks 6th in Dropback EPA. He'll likely be without Deebo Samuel for another game, which leaves him with only George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk as legitimate weapons in the passing game. Garoppolo has finished as QB15, QB20, and QB15 in his last three games, as his efficiency has been outweighed by a lack of volume. We could see the 49ers continue to play run-heavy, even if Elijah Mitchell is forced to miss this game.
UPDATE: Elijah Mitchell has officially been ruled out for Week 14.
Joe Burrow (QB, CIN)
Joe Burrow is currently dealing with a finger injury that has a chance to really limit his effectiveness as a passer. Burrow has finished as QB10 in each of his last two games, but that's inflated by his two rare rushing touchdowns. Burrow has only two passing touchdowns with three interceptions during that span. He goes up against a 49ers defense that ranks 19th in Dropback EPA but is tied for 8th in PPR per game allowed to quarterbacks. You also have to consider that San Francisco has shown the ability to sustain long drives with their running game, which could limit passing volume. I'd look elsewhere at quarterback this week.
Other Matchups:
Jeff Wilson Jr. (RB, SF)
Elijah Mitchell has not been able to practice all week, which puts Jeff Wilson in line for a heavy workload in an efficient running game. The issue here is that the Bengals have been stout against the run, ranking 9th in Rush EPA. Having said that, Wilson should see 20 touches in what projects as a close game. While he was inefficient in his lone start against Jacksonville (19 attempts, 50 yards), you have to fire him up as a volume-based RB2 in this spot. I'll keep him in the lukewarm section due to the tough matchup.
Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SF)
Brandon Aiyuk has racked up at least six targets in his last three games. You have to be intrigued by his outlook with Deebo out for another week, but I'm leaving him in the lukewarm section due to the run-heavy nature of this offense. Cincinnati is tied for 17th in PPR per game allowed to wideouts, so you can definitely fire up Aiyuk as an upside WR3. The hope is that Burrow's finger holds up and this game turns into a shootout.
Joe Mixon (RB, SF)
Joe Mixon is currently dealing with an illness that has kept him out of practice all week. If he can't go, we can expect Samaje Perine to carry the load, making him a volume-based, low-end RB2. If Mixon plays, he'll be a low-end RB1 with our expectations tempered due to the illness. He goes up against a 49ers defense that ranks 14th in Rush EPA, so this isn't exactly an easy matchup. This looks like more of a floor week for Mixon.
UPDATE: Joe Mixon is listed as questionable but expected to start.
Tee Higgins (WR, CIN)
I love what Tee Higgins has done lately, combining for 15 receptions, 252 yards, and two touchdowns in his last two games. I'm just a bit concerned by two things: 1) the ankle injury that has limited him in practice, and 2) Burrow's finger injury, which could affect him as a passer. If I see Higgins off the injury report by game-time, I'd be willing to flip him and Chase. Until then, I'll leave him in the lukewarm section.
Injuries:
SF RB Elijah Mitchell (concussion, knee)
SF WR Deebo Samuel (groin)
CIN QB Joe Burrow (finger/knee)
CIN RB Joe Mixon (illness)
CIN WR Tee Higgins (ankle)
Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: Buccaneers -3.5
Implied Total: Bills (24.5) vs. Buccaneers (28.0)
Pace: Bills (8th) vs. Buccaneers (4th)
Scheme: Bills (65% Pass, 35% Rush) vs. Buccaneers(67% Pass, 33% Rush)
Bills Off. DVOA: 21.2% Pass (12th), -11.6% Rush (21st)
Buccaneers Def. DVOA: -0.4% Pass (7th), -13.7% Rush (9th)
Bills Def. DVOA: -24.1% Pass (1st), -17.3% Rush (6th)
Buccaneers Off. DVOA: 42.0% Pass (1st), 9.5% Rush (2nd)
Matchups We Love:
Josh Allen (QB, BUF)
Get ready for a pass-heavy bonanza between two teams that air it out at a high rate. The Bills (65%) and Buccaneers (67%) are the two pass-heaviest teams in neutral game scripts. That sets up nicely for Josh Allen, who will be forced to air it out against this pass-funnel defense. Allen is the overall QB1, don't worry about the fact that Tampa Bay ranks 7th in Dropback EPA. Bet on the talent and volume here.
Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)
Stefon Diggs should reap the benefits of a pass-heavy game script. He's scored a touchdown in three of his last four games. We know how high his ceiling is (8 REC, 162 YDS, 1 TD vs the Jets), so you have to love this spot for him. It wouldn't surprise me to see him finish as the overall WR1 this week. Diggs goes up against a Bucs defense that is tied for 20th in PPR per game allowed to wide receivers, so this is an exploitable matchup.
Cole Beasley (WR, BUF)
I also love this spot for Cole Beasley, who should be able to find the soft spots in this Bucs' zone defense. Beasley has really slumped lately, combining for 12 catches and 128 yards in his last five games. However, this matchup sets up perfectly for him in this projected shootout. I think Beasley is a rock-solid WR3 in this spot, especially since we can project a ton of passes in this game. I also love him in DFS tournaments.
Tom Brady (QB, TB)
Tom Brady is coming off a fantastic game against the Falcons where he finished as QB2. He's now finished in the Top-12 in eight games this season. While the Bills pass defense is among the best in the league, I'll bet on the volume and efficiency of this Bucs offense here. Tampa Bay has the best passing game in the NFL and the Bills lost top corner Tre'Davious White. The Bills are allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, but don't worry about the matchup. Brady is an elite QB1.
Leonard Fournette (RB, TB)
Leonard Fournette needs to be considered an elite RB1, which is incredible considering he was cut from the Jaguars before Week 1 last season. It's been quite the shift in value for Fournette. You have to love his usage in the passing game, as he's racked up an absurd 28 receptions in his last four games. We just saw this Bills defense get gashed by Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson, so we could also see some efficiency for Fournette on the ground.
Chris Godwin (WR, TB)
Chris Godwin is coming off a monster game against the Falcons where he caught 15-of-17 targets for 143 yards against the Falcons. Godwin has finished as a Top-6 wideout in three of his last six games. He takes on a Bills defense allowing the fewest PPR per game to receivers, but once again this is a bet on talent and situation over matchup. You're firing up Godwin as a low-end WR1 in this spot.
Mike Evans (WR, TB)
We could see this as a Mike Evans game with Tre'Davious White out of the lineup. Evans won't have to deal with a lockdown corner on the perimeter. He's coming off a solid game against the Falcons, where he caught 7-of-10 targets for 99 yards, but this was overshadowed by Godwin and Rob Gronkowski. I actually like Evans more than Godwin in this spot, as I think the deep threat will be able to get loose downfield on the defense. You also have to love his touchdown equity.
Rob Gronkowski (TE, TB)
Gronk has turned back the clock and looks like he did when he was in his prime. Since returning from injury, he's caught 17-of-25 targets for 252 yards and two touchdowns in three games. He's now TE1 in PPR per game, passing Travis Kelce. This is an elite option who has a chance to score multiple touchdowns on any given week. The Bills are tied for 2nd in PPR per game allowed to tight ends, but you gotta love the game environment for Gronk.
Matchups We Hate:
Bills RBs
The Bills backfield is an easy avoid against this brick wall of a Buccaneers run defense. Tampa Bay ranks 13th in Rush EPA, but they're only allowing 3.9 yards per carry which ranks 6th in the NFL. You have to think that the Bills will continue to avoid running the ball in this spot. Devin Singletary is the best bet of the bunch, but there's always a chance that they go back to Matt Breida for his explosive ability. I believe that Zack Moss was only active last week because of the weather conditions which made it better for a bruising back like Moss.
Emmanuel Sanders (WR, BUF)
Emmanuel Sanders has hit a rough patch recently, showing his advanced age (34 years old). He's combined for 11 catches and 103 yards in his last four games. That's simply abysmal production that cannot be trusted, even in a terrific game environment like this one. We could also see Sanders start to lose some work to Gabriel Davis, who has flashed his potential recently (77 yards in last two games).
Other Matchups:
Dawson Knox (TE, BUF)
Dawson Knox is in a great situation with high touchdown equity (seven touchdowns). He goes up against a Bucs defense that ranks 24th in PPR per game allowed to tight ends. This makes him a rock-solid option at the position. The only reason why I'm leaving him in the lukewarm section is that I think he'll be the third in line behind Diggs and Beasley in this game. I prefer those two here.
Injuries:
There are no fantasy-relevant injuries in this game.
Matchups Analysis - Sunday Night Football
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Spread: Packers -12.5
Implied Total: Bears (15.5) vs. Packers (28.0)
Pace: Bears (22nd) vs. Packers (32nd)
Scheme: Bears (50% Pass, 50% Rush) vs. Packers (58% Pass, 42% Rush)
Bears Off. DVOA: -8.1% Pass (28th), -7.1% Rush (17th)
Packers Def. DVOA: 2.5% Pass (10th), -3.7% Rush (27th)
Bears Def. DVOA: 10.9% Pass (22nd), -8.0% Rush (18th)
Packers Off. DVOA: 33.6% Pass (5th), -3.4% Rush (9th)
Matchups We Love:
David Montgomery (RB, CHI)
David Montgomery has seen bell-cow usage since returning from injury. He's coming off a great game against the Cardinals, where he rushed 21 times for 90 yards and a touchdown. He also caught 8-of-9 targets for 51 yards. Monty will lose some passing game usage with Justin Fields under center since the rookie quarterback likes to run and won't check down as much as Andy Dalton. The Packers rank 23rd in Rush EPA, so this is an exploitable matchup. Monty is a RB1.
Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)
Aaron Rodgers is rolling right now, coming off consecutive QB2 finishes. He goes up against a Bears defense that ranks 25th in Dropback EPA, so this is a fantastic matchup. The Bears rank 20th in PPR per game allowed to quarterbacks. You have to love the 28-point implied team total. Rodgers can be safely fired up as an elite QB1 in this spot, especially fresh off the bye. He should be able to carve up this defense.
Davante Adams (WR, GB)
Davante Adams is an elite WR1 every week. He's put up 100+ yards in back-to-back games. This is a terrific game environment with the Packers having such a high implied team total. The Bears are tied for 17th in PPR per game allowed to wideouts. The last time these two teams met, Adams only put up four catches for 89 yards, but I'm expecting a much better outing here. We could see him hit his massive ceiling.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR, GB)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has come alive in recent weeks, catching 8-of-19 targets for 173 yards and a touchdown. You have to be intrigued by the massive target volume, something that MVS hasn't seen throughout his career. This is a great matchup against a Bears defense allowing 9.44 yards per target to wideouts, which is the worst in the NFL. We could see Valdes-Scantling get loose downfield here.
Matchups We Hate:
Bears WRs
Darnell Mooney has quietly had a breakout season, but this is a matchup to avoid. For one, it's likely that the Bears will go with a run-heavy approach with Fields under center. Secondly, the Packers have been tough on opposing wideouts, ranking 13th in PPR per game allowed to the position. To make matters worse, elite corner Jaire Alexander has returned to practice and looks likely to return this week. Allen Robinson is also expected to return to the lineup, but he's not on the fantasy radar right now.
UPDATE: Allen Robinson will make his return for Week 14.
Other Matchups:
Packers RBs
This projects as a positive game script for Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon with the Packers as 12.5-point home favorites. The Bears rank 24th in Rush EPA, so the matchup is there as well. The problem is that this situation is devolving into a committee. When Jones returned to the lineup two weeks ago, he had 10 touches and Dillon had 25 touches. While this could be Green Bay's way of easing Jones back in, it's still a muddled situation. Consider Jones as an RB2 with Dillon as an upside FLEX.
Justin Fields (QB, CHI)
Justin Fields returns to the lineup to make his first start at Lambeau Field. It's a tough matchup against a Packers defense that ranks 11th in Dropback EPA, but most of his damage comes on the ground anyway. We saw Fields flash some magic last time he was on primetime against the Steelers. It would not surprise me to see the same against the division-rival Packers. I'll keep him in the lukewarm section, but I'm on board with him as a streamer.
Cole Kmet (TE, CHI)
Cole Kmet has combined for 18 targets in his last two games. He figures to be the Bears' best bet at moving the ball through the air with Jaire Alexander locking down the perimeter. Kmet goes up against a Packers defense that is tied for 12th in PPR per game allowed to tight ends, but I like the recent volume at a weak position. Consider the second-year tight end as a viable streamer in this spot.
Injuries:
There aren't any fantasy-relevant injuries in this matchup.
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