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Welcome back RotoBallers to our Week 10 matchup analysis and Start Em, Sit Em column for fantasy football.
For those who are not familiar, each week I'll be analyzing every game from the Sunday slate, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Be sure to check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information. Special thanks to PFF, RotoViz, RotoWire, Football Outsiders, FantasyPros, rbsdm.com, and Add More Funds for providing valuable information.
This year I will be covering the entire Sunday slate of games, and we will have separate articles for the Thursday Night Football and Monday Night Football games. Be sure to read those as well. So join me as I help get your fantasy teams off to a strong start. If you have any additional lineup questions, follow me on Twitter @FAmmiranteTFJ and feel free to ask away. Let's get on to the matchups!
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Matchups Analysis - 1:00 ET Games
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team
Spread: Bucs -9.5
Implied Total: Bucs (30.5) vs. Football Team (21.0)
Pace: Bucs (14th) vs. Football Team (4th)
Scheme: Bucs (63% Pass, 37% Rush) vs. Football Team (61% Pass, 39% Rush)
Bucs Off. DVOA: 51.0% Pass (1st), 0.9% Rush (7th)
Football Team Def. DVOA: 31.7% Pass (31st), -16.5% Rush (10th)
Bucs Def. DVOA: 1.2% Pass (10th), -23.0% Rush (4th)
Football Team Off. DVOA: 8.5% Pass (23rd), -18.5% Rush (26th)
Matchups We Love:
Tom Brady (QB, TB)
Tom Brady is currently QB1 in fantasy points per game. The veteran has five Top-5 quarterback finishes this season. Brady ranks 3rd in Expected Fantasy Points per Game and 6th with 2.3 Fantasy Points Above Expectation per Game. Brady continues to fire the ball downfield, tied for 6th with 8.7 air yards. He comes off the bye to take on a Washington defense that ranks 31st in Dropback EPA, allowing the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. While Brady could be without Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin, and Rob Gronkowski in this game, this is still a terrific matchup. He should be able to put up points even without his full arsenal.
UPDATE: Chris Godwin is expected to play, while Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski have been ruled out.
Mike Evans (WR, TB)
Mike Evans is essentially the only healthy starting pass-catcher in this offense. That puts him in play for an uptick in targets. Evans has posted an 18.48% target share this season and we can certainly see that number go up if Godwin and Brown miss this game. He's currently WR10 in PPR leagues with three Top-5 finishes this season. Evans ranks 13th with 13.5 Expected Fantasy Points per Game and tied for 21st with 1.7 Fantasy Points Above Expectation per Game. He has a terrific matchup against a Washington defense that has allowed the second-most PPR points per game this season. Keep an eye on Tyler Johnson, who has posted a 65.67% snap share and 10% target share with Antonio Brown out of the lineup. If Godwin and Brown are out, Johnson looks like a nice sleeper in a plus matchup. If Godwin can play, he would be put in the 'Love' section.
Terry McLaurin (WR, WAS)
Terry McLaurin is in a terrific game environment with Washington projected to play pass-heavy while trying to keep pace with this high octane Bucs' offense. Tampa Bay ranks 11th in Dropback EPA, but they've allowed 40 pass attempts per game. This is because teams are forced to air it out while playing from behind against them. It's also due to the fact that their run defense is so dominant. More passing volume means more potential targets for McLaurin, who has put up a 27.94% target share this season. McLaurin is currently WR20 with three Top-5 finishes. This looks like a spike week for him. Fire him up as a WR1 in this spot.
Matchups We Hate:
Washington RBs
Washington's backfield has become one to avoid because Antonio Gibson continues to be limited by his shin injury. When we last saw Washington in Week 8, Gibson (32.86% snap share) shared time with J.D. McKissic (45.71% snap share) and even Jaret Patterson (22.86% snap share). The Bucs rank 4th in rush EPA, allowing only 3.69 yards per carry (5th in NFL). While I understand the appeal with starting McKissic in full-PPR formats due to his receiving upside (24 targets in his last three games), I'm not too high on this backfield overall. There's always a chance that we see a bit more of Gibson with him being refreshed coming off the bye. I'd steer clear of this situation this week.
Other Matchups:
Leonard Fournette (RB, TB)
Leonard Fournette has asserted his dominance on this backfield, putting up a 62.5% opportunity share, which ranks 16th in the NFL. Fournette has averaged 20.4 opportunities in his last five games. He has four Top-15 finishes in his last five games. The issue here is that Washington's run defense has been the best part of this unit. They rank 6th in rush EPA, allowing only 3.55 yards per carry (3rd in NFL). The good news is that this is a positive game script with Tampa Bay projected to be playing with a lead. Fournette already has high touchdown equity in a prolific offense, but we could see that go even higher if Godwin, Brown, and Gronkowski are out. Having said that, I have to leave him in the lukewarm section due to the matchup. Consider him a rock-solid RB2 in this game.
Taylor Heinicke (QB, WAS)
Washington is passing the ball 61% of the time in neutral game scripts. They project to play from behind here as 9.5-point underdogs. Heinicke has one Top-5 finish and three Top-13 finishes this season. He ranks 7th among quarterbacks in Expected Fantasy Points per Game. Heinicke also adds rushing upside, totaling at least 40 yards on the ground in three of his last four games, including 95 yards against the Packers. We could see him approach his ceiling in this favorable game environment. Heinicke provides nice salary relief if you're playing DFS tournaments. I'd consider him as an appealing streamer in this spot.
Ricky Seals-Jones (TE, WAS)
Ricky Seals-Jones has done an admirable job filling in for the injured Logan Thomas, combining for 17 receptions, 162 yards, and a touchdown in four games. During that span, he has finished as TE14, TE6, TE9, and TE37 in PPR leagues. We could see Seals-Jones approach his ceiling in this pass-heavy game script. The Bucs rank 25th in PPR points per game allowed to tight ends, so this projects as a strong matchup for Seals-Jones. Consider him on the streaming radar for this week. Monitor Thomas' injury status because if he plays, then this is a moot point. I don't expect him to return just yet.
Injuries:
TB WR Antonio Brown (ankle)
TB WR Chris Godwin (foot)
TB TE Rob Gronkowski (back)
WAS WR Curtis Samuel (groin)
WAS WR Dyami Brown (knee)
WAS TE Logan Thomas (hamstring)
WAS QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (hip)
Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread: Steelers -8.5
Implied Total: Lions (17.0) vs. Steelers (25.5)
Pace: Lions (29th) vs. Steelers (18th)
Scheme: Lions (51% Pass, 49% Rush) vs. Steelers (59% Pass, 41% Rush)
Lions Off. DVOA: -16.1% Pass (30th), -22.0% Rush (28th)
Steelers Def. DVOA: 12.2% Pass (20th), -18.0% Rush (9th)
Lions Def. DVOA: 28.8% Pass (29th), -3.6% Rush (25th)
Steelers Off. DVOA: 14.9% Pass (19th), -10.6% Rush (19th)
Matchups We Love:
Najee Harris (RB, PIT)
Najee Harris has posted an 89.8% opportunity share, which ranks 1st in the NFL. The rookie is averaging 20 Expected Fantasy Points per Game (1st). The volume is so high that the efficiency essentially does not matter, especially with his passing game usage (6.5 targets per game). Harris is in a smash spot against a Lions defense that ranks 30th in Rush EPA, allowing the second-most PPR points per game to running backs. It's also a positive game script with the Steelers as 8.5-point favorites. We might see Harris eclipse 30 touches in this game, especially if Chase Claypool is out for this game.
UPDATE: Chase Claypool has been ruled out.
Diontae Johnson (WR, PIT)
Diontae Johnson has posted an impressive 30% target share. He ranks 7th among wideouts with 14.1 Expected Fantasy Points per Game. Johnson has been among the most consistent wideouts in football, finishing in the Top-25 in six of seven games, including two Top-16 finishes and one Top-5 finish. He's in a great matchup against a Lions defense that ranks 32nd in Dropback EPA. If Claypool is forced to miss this game, we could see an absolutely monster target share for Johnson. I'm talking like 15+ targets. That gives him elite upside in this cupcake matchup. Fire him up as a Top-10 wideout this week.
Pat Freiermuth (TE, PIT)
The rookie tight end has looked like a future star in his last two games, combining for 9 receptions, 87 yards, and three touchdowns, two of which came against the Bears on Monday Night Football. Freiermuth has clearly earned a greater role in this offense, especially with Eric Ebron still injured. The rookie also stands to benefit from Claypool's absence, as the targets will likely be funneled between Johnson, Harris, and himself. The Steelers should be able to move the ball at ease against this porous Lions' defense. While they rank 11th in PPR points per game to tight ends, the situation is too good to pass up here. Freiermuth is a Top-10 option this week.
Matchups We Hate:
There aren't any matchups to hate among fantasy-relevant players here. Lions' quarterback Jared Goff would be here, but he's not fantasy-relevant right now.
Other Matchups:
D'Andre Swift (RB, DET)
D'Andre Swift continues to see elite usage in the passing game, averaging 7.1 targets per game (1st in NFL). Swift ranks 6th in Expected Fantasy Points per Game. There's a chance that Jamaal Williams is forced to miss this game as well, as he wasn't able to practice on Wednesday. That would give Swift an opportunity to get more than 20 touches. The issue here is that the Steelers have a good rush defense (15th in Rush EPA, but 9th in Rush DVOA) and Swift has been inefficient as a runner (3.2 YPC). This can be mitigated by Swift's passing-game usage, but there's also risk that the Lions' offense gets totally shut down like it was against the Eagles. Swift was held in check in that game, so we have to keep him in the lukewarm section here. He's a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 in this spot.
T.J. Hockenson (TE, DET)
T.J. Hockenson has looked back to full health in recent weeks, combining for 31 targets in his last three games after being limited to only 13 in his previous three. Hockenson has posted a 22.15% target share, which is impressive for a tight end. The Steelers rank 14th in PPR points per game allowed to tight ends, but the volume could keep Hockenson as a Top-6 option despite the tough matchup against a good defense. It also gives him a nice floor, as he doesn't need to score a touchdown to provide dependable production. Hockenson has finished as TE7, TE10, and TE1 in his last three games. Still, we'll keep him in the lukewarm section because of the Steelers' defense.
Kalif Raymond (WR, DET)
Kalif Raymond was shut out in his last game following a breakout performance against the Rams, where he caught 6-of-8 targets for 115 yards. I'll give him a mulligan here because the entire Lions' offense aside from Hockenson disappointed in that game. Raymond actually has an exploitable matchup here against a Steelers defense that ranks 23rd in PPR points per game allowed to wide receivers. We just saw Pittsburgh allow Darnell Mooney to score two touchdowns against them. I'd consider Raymond as an upside WR4 and DFS tournament dart throw in this spot. He's more interesting than Amon-Ra St. Brown because Raymond's average target depth is 11.1, while St. Brown's is 7.9.
Ben Roethlisberger (QB, PIT)
We can consider Ben Roethlisberger as a viable streamer, which really demonstrates how poor this Lions' defense really is, as Big Ben has looked totally washed up this season. Detroit ranks 32nd in Dropback EPA this season, allowing 9.33 yards per attempt (32nd in NFL). Roethlisberger carries some appeal as salary relief in DFS tournaments. I'd love to use him as my SuperFlex as a streamer. It's harder to do so in 12-team traditional formats, but you can definitely go this route if you have your starter on a bye. This is Roethlisberger's best matchup of the season. Having said that, we have to leave him in the lukewarm section considering how poorly he's played.
UPDATE: Ben Roethlisberger (COVID) is out, and Mason Rudolph will start.
Injuries:
DET RB Jamaal Williams (thigh)
PIT WR Chase Claypool (toe)
PIT TE Eric Ebron (hamstring)
New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans
Spread: Titans -3
Implied Total: Saints (20.8) vs. Titans (23.8)
Pace: Saints (19th) vs. Titans (15th)
Scheme: Saints (52% Pass, 48% Rush) vs. Titans (54% Pass, 46% Rush)
Saints Off. DVOA: 22.6% Pass (14th), -13.2% Rush (20th)
Titans Def. DVOA: -4.0% Pass (8th), -3.9% Rush (24th)
Saints Def. DVOA: 4.6% Pass (13th), -37.4% Rush (1st)
Titans Off. DVOA: 9.2% Pass (22nd), -1.5% Rush (9th)
Matchups We Love:
Mark Ingram II (RB, NO)
It's unclear if Alvin Kamara will play this week, but it's trending in the wrong direction. This bodes well for Mark Ingram's outlook in this game. The veteran running back has been immediately integrated into this offense in his reunion in New Orleans, as he's combined for 22 touches in his two games, including five targets against the Falcons last week. The Titans haven't been good against the run this season, ranking 25th in Rush EPA. If Kamara sits out, we could see Ingram approach 20 touches in this spot. The Saints are a run-heavy team and he'd become the focal point of their offense. This makes him a volume-based RB2 with upside here.
UPDATE: Alvin Kamara has officially been ruled out.
Matchups We Hate:
Titans RBs
The Titans' backfield has become one to avoid, especially in tough matchups like this one. New Orleans ranks 3rd in Rush EPA, allowing the fifth-fewest PPR points per game to opposing running backs. Adrian Peterson (32.76% snap share), Jeremy McNichols (44.83% snap share), and D'Onta Foreman (20.69% snap share) formed a three-man committee against the Rams. Peterson will handle early downs and red-zone carries, while McNichols takes care of passing game work with Foreman spelling the two from time to time. Steer clear of this situation in an awful matchup.
Other Matchups:
Saints WRs
Deonte Harris has become an intriguing wideout for me. He's put up 3.05 yards per route run this season, which ranks 3rd behind Cooper Kupp and Deebo Samuel - that's pretty impressive company. Harris has caught 9-of-15 targets for 87 yards in his last two games. He's a nice dart-throw as an upside WR4, making for terrific salary relief in DFS tournaments. The Titans are allowing the most PPR points per game to wideouts, so this is a nice matchup. Marquez Callaway has some upside in this spot as well, but he hasn't cleared 40 yards in his last two games. Harris is my preferred option here. The reason why they're in the lukewarm section is that it's a run-heavy offense with an unclear quarterback situation.
Ryan Tannehill (QB, TEN)
Ryan Tannehill goes up against a Saints defense that has allowed a combined 718 yards in their last two games. That's the good news. The bad news is that this Titans' passing game showed signs of struggling without Derrick Henry in the backfield. Tannehill only completed only 5.3 yards per attempt for 143 yards last week. The Saints rank 7th in Dropback EPA, so there's a chance that we see a better effort from their defense in this one. That keeps Tannehill in the lukewarm section until we see some evidence that he can perform at a high level without the Big Dog at running back.
A.J. Brown (WR, TEN)
I love A.J. Brown and really think that he'll be the focal point of this offense in Henry's absence, but I need to keep him in the lukewarm section until we see Tannehill prove himself a bit without Henry. Brown was limited to only five receptions for 42 yards against the Rams last week. However, the good news is that he saw 11 targets, putting his total at 40 targets in his last four games. That's elite usage that could allow Brown to finish as a Top-5 wideout for the rest of the season. He goes up against a Saints defense allowing the fourth-most PPR points per game to wideouts, so this is an exploitable matchup, but I'm worried about Tannehill as well as the slow pace of the Saints' offense keeping Tennessee off the field.
Julio Jones (WR, TEN)
Julio Jones is finally off the injury report, which puts him firmly in play as an upside WR3 in this exploitable matchup. However, we have to keep him in this section because: A) Tannehill without Henry, and B) Julio hasn't delivered a Top-18 fantasy finish since Week 2. My favorite place to start Julio is in DFS tournaments because there's a good chance that we see people avoid him given his lack of track record this season. PFF gives him a 77.4 Matchup Advantage over Saints' defenders this week.
UPDATE: Julio Jones had a setback, is out for this week and has been placed on IR.
Injuries:
NO RB Alvin Kamara (knee)
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: Cowboys -9
Implied Total: Falcons (22.8) vs. Cowboys (31.8)
Pace: Falcons (11th) vs. Cowboys (3rd)
Scheme: Falcons (59% Pass, 41% Rush) vs. Cowboys (59% Pass, 41% Rush)
Falcons Off. DVOA: 10.6% Pass (20th), -42.2% Rush (32nd)
Cowboys Def. DVOA: -4.4% Pass (7th), -12.6% Rush (15th)
Falcons Def. DVOA: 26.5% Pass (28th), -2.7% Rush (27th)
Cowboys Off. DVOA: 38.6% Pass (4th), -8.0% Rush (15th)
Matchups We Love:
Cordarrelle Patterson (RB, ATL)
Cordarrelle Patterson continues to get it done, especially in the passing game, where he's caught all 11 of his targets for 163 yards and a touchdown in his last two games. Patterson has now finished as a Top-20 RB in seven consecutive weeks, including three Top-7 finishes during that span. He's now one of the focal points of this Atlanta offense. Patterson takes on a Cowboys defense that ranks 23rd in Rush EPA. It's clear that he'll see at least five targets, making him an upside RB2 on a weekly basis, especially in potential shootouts like this one.
Kyle Pitts (TE, ATL)
Kyle Pitts has arrived as an elite tight end, finishing as TE2 and TE3 in two of his last four games. He now has a 23.33% target share for the season, which is extremely impressive for a tight end, let alone a rookie one. Pitts goes up against a Cowboys defense that is tied for 21st in PPR points per game allowed to tight ends, so this is a good matchup. It's also a great game environment where we could see a lot of passing volume from this Falcons team. Fire up Pitts as a Top-5 tight end, even in DFS tournaments, where there's a decent chance that he approaches his ceiling here.
Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)
Dak Prescott turned in a poor performance in his return to the lineup against the Broncos last week, completing only 19-of-39 passes for 232 yards (5.9 yards per attempt). This is the perfect bounce-back spot against a Falcons' defense with a non-existent pass rush (4.6% Adjusted Sack Rate, T-32nd). Atlanta ranks 24th in Pass EPA and tied for 24th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. You have to think Dak will come through with a much better game in this spot. He's an elite QB1 this week.
CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL)
CeeDee Lamb also turned in a dud last week, catching only 2-of-9 targets for 23 yards. This came after consecutive 100-yard games in a week where Lamb's status was in doubt due to injury. Look for a bounce-back game here against a Falcons defense that ranks 15th in PPR points per game to wideouts, but is not a matchup to fear (28th in Pass DVOA). If Prescott bounces back, there's a great chance that he's throwing bombs downfield to Lamb, who continues to exhibit some of the best separation skills in the game. Fire up Lamb as a Top-10 wideout in this matchup.
Amari Cooper (WR, DAL)
Amari Cooper is the last of this Cowboys' trio to likely bounce back in a terrific matchup. Cooper was limited to only five receptions for 37 yards last week, but he's looked healthier coming out of the bye, particularly in the previous week against the Vikings, where he caught 8-of-13 targets for 122 yards and a touchdown. PFF gives Cooper a 73.5 Matchup Advantage against Falcons' defenders this week. You can safely fire him up as an upside WR2 with the Cowboys projected to score a ton of points in this one.
Matchups We Hate:
Falcons WRs
This is a good matchup for the Falcons' wideouts against a Cowboys defense that ranks 24th in PPR points per game to the position, but it's just difficult to determine which one to start. Last week it was Olamide Zaccheaus (3 REC, 58 YDS, 2 TD) and the previous week it was Russell Gage (4 REC, 67 YDS, 1 TD). Gage is the best bet, as he combined for 14 targets during that span. However, there's also Tajae Sharpe (six targets in Week 8) who can take away looks. I'd steer clear of this situation unless I was totally desperate, in which case I would go with Gage.
Other Matchups:
Matt Ryan (QB, ATL)
Matt Ryan has actually really turned his season around from a fantasy standpoint, finishing in the Top-12 in four of his last five games, including QB3 against the Saints last week. The Cowboys defense has been among the most improved units in the league, ranking 5th in Dropback EPA, but they are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. This projects as a pass-heavy game script, so we need to consider Ryan as a viable streamer in this spot.
Ezekiel Elliott (RB, DAL)
Ezekiel Elliott is coming off a poor outing where he was limited to only 51 rushing yards on 10 carries, as he was game scripted out of the game with the Broncos playing with a huge lead. While he still caught all three targets, the large deficit prevented him from making any sort of impact. The problem here is that Zeke is dealing with a knee injury that could potentially result in a reduced workload in this game. That bumps Zeke down to more of a low-end RB1 while putting Tony Pollard on the FLEX radar against a Falcons defense that ranks 16th in Rush EPA. This is a terrific matchup in a positive game script.
Michael Gallup (WR, DAL)
Michael Gallup looks ready to return to the lineup, putting him in play as an intriguing dart throw in DFS tournaments, but not much more than that. We have to consider him as an upside WR4 play here because of his ability to win downfield while catching passes from an elite quarterback in a prolific offense, but I'm tempering my expectations. It's unlikely that he'll see his normal workload. Furthermore, Dalton Schultz really emerged in Gallup's absence, so it's unclear if the talented wideout will still have the same role that he had prior to the injury.
Dalton Schultz (TE, DAL)
Dalton Schultz has been one of the biggest breakouts at tight end, finishing in the Top-8 four times this season, including two Top-5 finishes. The problem here is the same as with Gallup - we're not sure how the usage will play out with his return. There's a decent chance that Schultz and Gallup eat into each other's value for the rest of the season, especially in an offense that can run the ball so effectively. While you're still starting Schultz as a Top-12 tight end, I'd suggest tempering expectations going forward.
Injuries:
There are no injuries to fantasy-relevant players that are likely to cause them to miss this game.
Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots
Spread: Patriots -1.5
Implied Total: Browns (21.8) vs. Patriots (23.3)
Pace: Browns (30th) vs. Patriots (23rd)
Scheme: Browns (49% Pass, 51% Rush) vs. Patriots (56% Pass, 44% Rush)
Browns Off. DVOA: 24.1% Pass (11th), 12.9% Rush (1st)
Patriots Def. DVOA: -6.4% Pass (6th), -12.0% Rush (17th)
Browns Def. DVOA: 11.8% Pass (19th), -22.6% Rush (5th)
Patriots Off. DVOA: 10.3% Pass (21st), -8.4% Rush (17th)
Matchups We Love:
D'Ernest Johnson (RB, CLE)
The Browns rank 3rd with 5.05 Adjusted Line Yards, 1st in Rush DVOA, and 1st in Rush EPA - this is a dominant running game. If Nick Chubb is forced to miss this game with COVID-19, that would leave Johnson as the lone back here (Kareem Hunt is still injured, Demetric Felton also has COVID). That means that there's a good chance that Johnson sees 20+ touches once again. The last time that happened, he went off for 168 total yards and a touchdown against the Broncos. The Patriots rank 13th in Rush EPA, but they're 18th in PPR points per game allowed to running backs. Johnson looks like a high-end RB2 if Chubb can't go.
UPDATE: Nick Chubb and Demetric Felton have been ruled out.
Matchups We Hate:
Baker Mayfield (QB, CLE)
Baker Mayfield turned in an efficient performance in the Browns' blowout win over the Bengals last week, completing 66.7% of his passes at 10.4 yards per attempt. The problem here is that he has a tough matchup against a Patriots defense that ranks 6th in Dropback EPA. There's also a chance that Mayfield could be without one of his top targets in Jarvis Landry, who is currently nursing a knee injury. Look for Cleveland to really rely on their running game in this projected close matchup.
Mac Jones (QB, NE)
Mac Jones has been a much better real-life than fantasy quarterback, as shown by his fantasy finishes: six as QB23 or worse, with his best performance as QB11. The Browns have a nasty pass-rush, putting up a 7.8% Adjusted Sack Rate (3rd in NFL). We've seen Cleveland really cause problems for young quarterbacks like Joe Burrow and Justin Fields this season. I expect more of the same here with Jones. He's not a viable streamer in this tough matchup.
Jakobi Meyers (WR, NE)
Jakobi Meyers has become a really underwhelming option given his lack of big-play ability and low touchdown equity. Meyers has finished as WR44, WR45, WR38, WR57, and WR89 in the last five weeks. The Browns rank 18th in PPR points per game allowed to wideouts, but this is a situation to avoid, especially with Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Agholor eating into Meyers' production. If you're looking at a Patriot to play, look at the running backs or tight ends.
Other Matchups:
Browns WRs
Odell Beckham Jr. is no longer with the team. Jarvis Landry is dealing with a knee injury, but he's expected to play. Landry has combined for 23 targets in his last three games, making him a solid WR3 in this spot. We could also see more volume for Donovan Peoples-Jones, who has combined for six receptions, 107 yards, and three touchdowns in his last two games, including a 60-yard bomb last week against the Bengals. Peoples-Jones has the ability to make big plays downfield. An uptick in volume can put him on the WR3 radar. The Patriots are giving up the 12th-fewest PPR points per game to wideouts, but I'm intrigued by DPJ's big-play ability.
Patriots RBs
The Patriots' backfield is a tricky situation with Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson dealing with concussions. If Harris can play, we have to fire him up as an upside RB2 with the way he's played lately, finishing as RB15, RB3, RB21, and RB31 in the last four weeks. Stevenson looked great last week, putting up 106 total yards with two receptions. If he can get a lead role with Harris out, things could get interesting. If both backs are out, that leaves Brandon Bolden to monopolize passing game usage and cede some touches to J.J. Taylor. The Browns are tough against the run, ranking 5th in Rush EPA, which keeps them all in the lukewarm section. Reports state that Stevenson has a chance to play on Sunday, which puts him in the RB2 range. Bolden would be a FLEX in full-PPR formats.
UPDATE: Damien Harris has been ruled out for this week.
Hunter Henry (TE, NE)
Hunter Henry has developed into the most dependable pass-catcher in this offense, scoring five touchdowns in his last six games. He's essentially become the James Conner of tight ends (pre-Chase Edmonds injury). However, that's really okay at a thin position like tight end. Henry has finished as TE11, TE5, TE15, TE13, TE30, and TE13 in his last six games. He goes up against a Browns defense that ranks 12th in PPR points per game allowed to tight ends, which keeps him in the lukewarm section, but you have to love that touchdown equity.
Injuries:
CLE RB Nick Chubb (COVID-19)
NE RB Damien Harris (concussion)
NE RB Rhamondre Stevenson (concussion)
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Spread: Bills -13
Implied Total: Bills (30.3) vs. Jets (17.3)
Pace: Bills (6th) vs. Jets (13th)
Scheme: Bills (67% Pass, 33% Rush) vs. Jets (58% Pass, 42% Rush)
Bills Off. DVOA: 17.2% Pass (16th), -17.9% Rush (25th)
Jets Def. DVOA: 29.0% Pass (30th), 1.0% Rush (31st)
Bills Def. DVOA: -26.2% Pass (1st), -26.0% Rush (3rd)
Jets Off. DVOA: -6.5% Pass (28th), -14.8% Rush (22nd)
Matchups We Love:
Josh Allen (QB, BUF)
Josh Allen and this Bills offense has looked entirely out of sync in their last two games, especially against the Jaguars last week, where they were limited to only six points against one of the worst defenses in the league. Allen has combined for 513 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions in this stretch. He's averaged fewer than six yards per attempt in each of those games. He should be able to get back on track as an elite QB1 against a Jets defense that ranks 23rd in Dropback EPA. If Allen continues to struggle, his rushing upside provides a floor that should keep him in the Top-12. I'm betting on a bounce-back here.
Matchups We Hate:
Mike White (QB, NYJ)
The Mike White cinderella story lives for another week, as the quarterback is expected to start after leaving the Thursday nighter early with a forearm injury. White has been much better than Zach Wilson this season, which has been a major surprise. White has kept the offense on schedule and has it functioning at a competent level while he's on the field. Having said that, this is a horrible matchup against what might be the best defense in the NFL. Buffalo ranks 1st in Dropback EPA this season.
Jets WRs
Elijah Moore has emerged, combining for 13 receptions, 131 yards, and two touchdowns in his last two games. The problem here is that Corey Davis looks ready to return from injury, which should eat into the rookie's target share. There is also Jamison Crowder, who has racked up 16 targets in his last two games. While we could see one of these pass-catchers rack up check-downs from White here, it's hard to tell which one. It's also tough to produce against this defense, as Buffalo has allowed the fewest PPR points per game to wide receivers. Avoid this situation this week.
Other Matchups:
Devin Singletary (RB, BUF)
Devin Singletary has a good chance to have the lead role all to himself with Zack Moss potentially missing this game as he recovers from a concussion. This is a fantastic matchup against a Jets defense that has been shredded on the ground by Jonathan Taylor (RB2), Joe Mixon (RB2), and Damien Harris (RB3) in the last three weeks. While Singletary is never an exciting option, you have to love the potential volume in a great spot here. You can fire him up as an RB2 if Moss can't go.
UPDATE: Zack Moss has been cleared, and will play this week.
Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)
Stefon Diggs has been one of the biggest disappointments of the season. He's finished in the Top-10 only once (WR7) while finishing outside the Top-25 four times. There just hasn't been the same ceiling from Diggs this year. His target share has fallen back to Minnesota norms (about 23%), so perhaps last year was just an outlier. This is why I have to keep him in the lukewarm section. The Jets surprisingly rank 7th in PPR points per game allowed to wide receivers, but perhaps this is just because teams are running all over them lately. Consider Diggs more of a low-end WR1.
Emmanuel Sanders (WR, BUF)
Emmanuel Sanders bounced back after a catch-less Week 8, putting up four receptions for 65 yards in a modest effort against the Jaguars. It's tough to get too excited about the veteran with the way this passing game has looked lately. While it's good for Sanders' outlook if Cole Beasley is forced to miss this game, that's mitigated by the return of Dawson Knox, who was in the middle of a breakout season and could cut into Sanders' target share. Consider Sanders as a decent WR3 in this spot. Beasley has been a target hog recently, putting up 33 targets in his last three games. He's a rock-solid WR3 in full-PPR leagues.
Dawson Knox (TE, BUF)
Dawson Knox looks ready to return from injury. Prior to missing time, Knox had finished as a TE1 in four of six games, including three games in the Top-10 and two in the Top-5. Knox goes up against a Jets defense that ranks 24th in PPR points per game allowed to the position, so this is a good matchup. You have to think that he gets close to a full workload in this matchup, which puts him in play as a Top-10 option at a weak position. Having said that, I'm leaving him in the lukewarm section just in case.
UPDATE: Dawson Knox will make his return this week.
Michael Carter (RB, NYJ)
We all know how Mike White absolutely adores checking it down to his running backs, so this is great news for Michael Carter, albeit in a tough matchup against a Bills defense allowing the fewest PPR points per game to opposing running backs. You also have to factor in Ty Johnson, who has now vultured touchdowns in consecutive weeks. I would consider Carter as an upside RB2 because of his receiving ability with Johnson as a RB3/desperation FLEX given the tough matchup.
Injuries:
BUF RB Zack Moss (concussion)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Spread: Colts -10.5
Implied Total: Jaguars (18.5) vs. Colts (29.0)
Pace: Jaguars (16th) vs. Colts (26th)
Scheme: Jaguars (55% Pass, 45% Rush) vs. Colts (58% Pass, 42% Rush)
Jaguars Off. DVOA: -5.1% Pass (27th), 1.6% Rush (6th)
Colts Def. DVOA: 19.9% Pass (26th), -36.7% Rush (2nd)
Jaguars Def. DVOA: 36.1% Pass (32nd), -18.3% Rush (8th)
Colts Off. DVOA: 17.4% Pass (15th), 1.6% Rush (5th)
Matchups We Love:
Dan Arnold (TE, JAX)
Dan Arnold has emerged as a viable weekly tight end streamer given his strong usage with the Jaguars. The veteran tight end has caught 12-of-17 targets for 128 yards in his last two games. Since joining the Jaguars, he's finished as TE29, TE9, TE33, TE2, and TE12. He's averaging 6.4 targets per game during that span. The Colts have also been exploited by tight ends this season, tied for 27th in PPR points per game allowed to the position. You have to love Arnold as a streamer here.
Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND)
Jonathan Taylor is the best running back in fantasy football right now. Since Week 4, he's finished as RB10, RB2, RB3, RB5, RB6, and RB2. Taylor ranks 9th in Expected Fantasy Points per Game and tied for 1st with 4.4 Fantasy Points Above Expectation per Game. This is yet another smash spot in a favorable game script with the Colts as 10.5-point favorites, facing a Jaguars defense that ranks 18th in Rush EPA. Fire up JT as an elite RB1 in this cupcake matchup.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND)
It has been impressive to watch Michael Pittman Jr. morph into an alpha WR1. The sophomore wideout has racked up double-digit targets in three games this season, leading the Colts with a 24.48% target share. Pittman has finished as a Top-15 wideout in four of his last five games, including three consecutive WR1 (Top-12) finishes. This is a terrific matchup against a Jaguars defense that ranks 30th in Dropback EPA. However, it's worth noting that this team just held the Bills to six points. While that definitely could be an aberration, you just never know in the NFL. At the same time, I have to leave Pittman in the 'Love' section.
Matchups We Hate:
Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAX)
Trevor Lawrence has been such a disappointment in his rookie season. I really had high hopes for him from a fantasy standpoint, but he just has not delivered. Lawrence has finished outside of the top-20 quarterbacks five times this season. This passing game is totally out of sync and the offense is even more dysfunctional without star running back James Robinson, who might miss another week. The Colts are exploitable through the air (26th in Pass DVOA), but there's no way I'm trusting Lawrence right now.
Other Matchups:
James Robinson (RB, JAX)
James Robinson looks ready to return just in time for a tough matchup against a Colts defense that ranks 2nd in Rush EPA. Robinson has been one of the best running backs in football this season. Prior to leaving early against the Seahawks in Week 8, Robinson had been on a four-game touchdown streak. This streak also included four consecutive Top-12 finishes at running back. Consider him a high-end RB2 because of the tough matchup against the Bills.
Jaguars WRs
Marvin Jones Jr. and Jamal Agnew (Laviska Shenault is no longer fantasy-relevant) have a good matchup against a Colts defense allowing the fifth-most PPR points per game to wideouts. The problem is that Jones has been almost a total non-factor lately, finishing as WR62, WR53, WR9, WR76, and WR36 in his last five games. Agnew is probably the safer pick here, as he's combined for 30 targets in his last four games. While the Jaguars will likely be forced to air it out this week, I'm not excited about any of these wideouts.
Injuries:
JAX RB James Robinson (heel)
Matchups Analysis - 4:00 ET Games
Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals
Spread: Cardinals -10.5
Implied Total: Panthers (17.0) vs. Cardinals (27.5)
Pace: Panthers (22nd) vs. Cardinals (10th)
Scheme: Panthers (53% Pass, 47% Rush) vs. Cardinals (56% Pass, 44% Rush)
Panthers Off. DVOA: -23.1% Pass (32nd), -15.9% Rush (24th)
Cardinals Def. DVOA: -17.5% Pass (2nd), -19.4% Rush (7th)
Panthers Def. DVOA: -7.4% Pass (4th), -7.6% Rush (19th)
Cardinals Off. DVOA: 45.8% Pass (2nd), -9.8% Rush (18th)
Matchups We Love:
Christian McCaffrey (RB, CAR)
Christian McCaffrey returned to action to a strong workload, rushing 14 times for 52 yards and catching 4-of-5 targets for 54 yards. Expect even more volume in his second week removed from the injury report. The Cardinals have been more vulnerable on the ground, ranking 18th in Rush DVOA. McCaffrey has such a huge role in the passing game that the matchup does not matter as much. He's back in the circle of trust as one of the best fantasy backs in the NFL. Expect an increase on his 49.15% snap share this week.
James Conner (RB, ARI)
James Conner has morphed from a touchdown-dependent RB2 to a bell-cow who looks like an RB1 for the rest of the season. Conner had a huge week against the 49ers, rushing 21 times for 96 yards and two touchdowns while catching all five of his targets for 77 yards and a touchdown. That is truly elite usage, as he took over pass-catching duties with Chase Edmonds leaving with an injury. Conner takes on a Panthers defense that ranks 10th in Rush EPA, but this is a bet on volume in a prolific offense. You have to love Conner's outlook going forward.
Matchups We Hate:
Kyler Murray (QB, ARI)
It appears as if Kyler Murray is ready to return this week, as the star quarterback stated that he's hopeful to play this week. However, this is a tough matchup against a Panthers defense that ranks 3rd in Dropback EPA. If Murray plays, it's unlikely that we'll see a big week given his return from injury in a tough matchup. You also have to be concerned with the lack of rushing production, as Murray has combined for only 38 rushing yards in his last four games. Murray does not look like an elite QB1 in this spot.
UPDATE: Kyler Murray will be a game-time decision, but is not expected to play.
Zach Ertz (TE, ARI)
Zach Ertz has caught 10-of-20 targets for 135 yards in four games as a Cardinal. It's good to see that he'll likely get Kyler Murray back. The Panthers are allowing the third-fewest PPR points per game to opposing tight ends, so this is a tough matchup. Add in the fact that it's still unclear if Murray will play or if he'll play at a reduced capacity and you have a matchup to avoid with Ertz. I'd look elsewhere if I needed a tight end streamer for this week.
Other Matchups:
D.J. Moore (WR, CAR)
D.J. Moore currently ranks 5th with 17.8 Expected Fantasy Points per Game, but he's been held back by poor quarterback play from Sam Darnold. Darnold is currently injured, so P.J. Walker will get the start. The team just signed Cam Newton, but he won't be ready to play this week. This is a tough matchup against a Cardinals defense that ranks 2nd in Pass EPA, but Moore's volume (28.85% target share) keeps him in play as an upside WR2. I'd leave him in the lukewarm section this week. Robby Anderson gets a bump in value with the change at quarterback, but you have to see him show something on the field before allowing him back in the circle of trust.
Christian Kirk (WR, ARI)
Christian Kirk has quietly been pretty solid, catching 19-of-25 targets for 257 yards and two touchdowns in his last four games. A.J. Green is expected to return from COVID, but it's starting to look like DeAndre Hopkins is going to miss another game. Rondale Moore isn't fantasy-relevant right now given his lack of volume and low average depth of target. The hope is that Moore starts getting used in the Chase Edmonds role, but we need to see that in order to project it. Carolina ranks 5th in PPR points per game allowed to wideouts, so this is a tough matchup. I'd put Kirk has a WR3 with Green as a volatile WR4. I'm not considering Moore this week unless I was desperate. Keep an eye on Moore's status, as he's currently dealing with a neck/concussion issue.
UPDATE: DeAndre Hopkins is expected to sit again this week.
Injuries:
CAR QB Sam Darnold (shoulder)
ARI RB Chase Edmonds (ankle)
ARI WR DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring)
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers
Spread: Chargers -2.5
Implied Total: Vikings (25.3) vs. Chargers (27.8)
Pace: Vikings (8th) vs. Chargers (1st)
Scheme: Vikings (61% Pass, 39% Rush) vs. Chargers (63% Pass, 37% Rush)
Vikings Off. DVOA: 32.9% Pass (6th), -24.9% Rush (29th)
Chargers Def. DVOA: -2.3% Pass (9th), 5.5% Rush (32nd)
Vikings Def. DVOA: -8.3% Pass (3rd), -3.4% Rush (26th)
Chargers Off. DVOA: 27.5% Pass (7th), -6.5% Rush (14th)
Matchups We Love:
Dalvin Cook (RB, MIN)
Dalvin Cook is in an absolute smash spot against a Chargers defense that ranks 32nd in Rush DVOA, allowing 4.86 yards per carry, which is dead last in the NFL. We haven't seen a spike week for Cook since Week 1, so this looks like the perfect spot for that to happen. You have to love the game environment here with both teams at 25+ point implied totals. This has the makings of a shootout, which means that Cook should have numerous scoring opportunities. The star back is coming off a solid game against the Ravens where he rushed for 110 yards on 17 carries.
Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)
Justin Herbert bounced back with a huge game against the Eagles last week, completing 32-of-38 passes (84.2%) for 356 yards (9.4 yards per attempt) with two touchdowns and no interceptions. He also added a rushing touchdown. Herbert is in another great spot against a Vikings defense that has been shredded by Cooper Rush and Lamar Jackson in their last two games. Minnesota ranks 4th in Dropback EPA, but I don't think they'll be able to slow down this prolific Chargers' passing attack.
Austin Ekeler (RB, LAC)
Austin Ekeler has had a pair of slow weeks recently, combining for 28 carries, 123 yards, 9 receptions, 83 yards, and one touchdown in his last two. He ranks 9th with 17.1 Expected Fantasy Points per Game. This is a good matchup against a Vikings defense allowing 4.56 yards per carry (25th). We could see Ekeler have another spike week in this projected shootout. He's finished as RB25, RB3, and RB30 in his last three games. Consider him as a high-end RB1 in this great spot.
Keenan Allen (WR, LAC)
Keenan Allen has reclaimed his role as the top target among Chargers' wideouts, combining for 18 receptions, 181 yards, and a touchdown in his last two games. He takes on a Vikings defense allowing the sixth-most PPR points per game to opposing wideouts. We could see Allen have another big game in this exploitable matchup. We haven't seen a true spike week from Allen yet and that could happen in this spot. I'd consider him as a high-end WR2 with WR1 upside in this game.
Matchups We Hate:
There aren't any matchups to hate in this projected shootout.
Other Matchups:
Kirk Cousins (QB, MIN)
Kirk Cousins continues to prove that he's one of the most underrated quarterbacks in fantasy football. Check out his fantasy finishes this season: QB14, QB6, QB5, QB28, QB21, QB2, QB21, and QB6. That's pretty impressive for a player who's mostly considered as a fantasy streamer. He's viable this week because of the game environment, but temper your expectations because the Chargers rank 14th in Dropback EPA, allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN)
Justin Jefferson caught a 50-yard touchdown last week, but he didn't do much else, finishing with three receptions for 69 yards. He's now put up only five receptions in his last two games. This is a tough matchup against a Chargers defense allowing the second-fewest PPR points per game to opposing wideouts. You also have to factor in the risk that the Vikings opt to go run-heavy with Dalvin Cook, since the Chargers' have such a vulnerable run defense. That would limit pass volume and cap Jefferson's ceiling in this spot.
Adam Thielen (WR, MIN)
Adam Thielen partly salvaged his fantasy day last week with a late touchdown to give him a 2-6-1 line. He continues to be Kirk Cousins' favorite target in the red-zone, which helps raise his floor. Prior to this dud, Thielen had combined for 17 receptions, 204 yards, and two touchdowns in his previous two games. He's now scored a touchdown in three consecutive games, so perhaps he can keep the streak going in this potential shootout. Consider him as a WR2 with upside in this spot, but I'm leaving him in the lukewarm section because of the tough matchup.
Tyler Conklin (TE, MIN)
Tyler Conklin is once again a viable tight end streamer in a strong game environment against a Chargers defense allowing the seventh-most PPR points per game to opposing tight ends. Conklin has combined for 13 receptions and 173 yards in his last three games. That's rock-solid production. If he can find the endzone this week, you're looking at a Top-10 finish. If you're in need of a tight end this week, look no further than Conklin.
Mike Williams (WR, LAC)
Mike Williams has hit a rough patch recently, combining for six receptions, 104 yards, and zero touchdowns in his last three games. Part of this is because he was limited by injury, but the Chargers are also starting to use him mostly as a deep threat once again. This increases his volatility, which is why we need to leave him in the lukewarm section. Having said that, the Vikings have allowed big plays downfield this season, including a 116 yards to Marquise Brown last week.
Jared Cook (TE, LAC)
Jared Cook can also be considered an interesting streamer. While he's been held to fewer than 30 yards in three of his last four games, I like the touchdown upside in a game that should see a ton of points. Minnesota is allowing the fifth-fewest PPR points per game to tight ends, but Cook is in a prolific passing offense with a lot of volume. It wouldn't shock me to see Cook finish as a TE1 in this spot. Having said that, I need to leave him in the lukewarm section given his lack of production in recent weeks.
Injuries:
There are no injuries to fantasy-relevant players that are likely to cause them to miss this game.
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers
Spread: Packers -3.5
Implied Total: Seahawks (23.0) vs. Packers (26.5)
Pace: Seahawks (20th) vs. Packers (32nd)
Scheme: Seahawks (55% Pass, 45% Rush) vs. Packers (56% Pass, 44% Rush)
Seahawks Off. DVOA: 34.1% Pass (5th), -3.7% Rush (11th)
Packers Def. DVOA: 4.5% Pass (12th), -5.7% Rush (22nd)
Seahawks Def. DVOA: 18.4% Pass (24th), -16.5% Rush (11th)
Packers Off. DVOA: 24.5% Pass (9th), -5.6% Rush (12th)
Matchups We Love:
Russell Wilson (QB, SEA)
Russell Wilson is back and the Seahawks' offense looks ready to get back on track. Wilson had been putting up 7.6 Fantasy Points Above Expectation prior to his injury. That's 4.5 more than second-place Kirk Cousins. He takes on a Packers defense that ranks 12th in Dropback EPA, but they aren't as formidable without top corner Jaire Alexander. Wilson has finished within the Top-10 in three out of five games this season. Look for him to return with a strong performance in this projected shootout.
D.K. Metcalf (WR, SEA)
D.K. Metcalf has quietly been one of the most consistent wideouts in the NFL this season, finishing in the Top-12 in four of his last six games, despite having to catch passes from Geno Smith in half of those games. Metcalf has put up a 27.18% target share, which is a 3+ percent increase from last year. He takes on a Packers defense that ranks 6th in PPR points per game allowed to wideouts, but the Seahawks are likely to have to air it out to keep pace with this Packers offense. Look for Metcalf to keep the good times rolling in this one.
Tyler Lockett (WR, SEA)
Tyler Lockett turned in a big game before the bye, catching 12-of-13 targets for 142 yards. This was after he had been limited to 35 yards or less in four of his previous five games. He now gets Russ back, which puts him as a high-end WR2 for the rest of the season. Lockett has quietly had an impressive target share this season, leading the team at 28.16%. While he's been volatile once again this season, you have to think that his production becomes more consistent with Wilson back in the fold. I love the matchup and game environment for Lockett this week.
Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)
Aaron Rodgers returns to the lineup and should come back with a bang against a Seahawks defense that ranks 19th in Dropback EPA this season, ranking 14th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. While there's risk that this game could disappoint since both teams are slow-paced, I like Rodgers' chances at providing Top-10 production this week. Rodgers has finished in the Top-12 in four out of eight games this season, including two Top-5 finishes. We could see him hit his ceiling in this spot.
Davante Adams (WR, GB)
Davante Adams had a slow week with Jordan Love against the Chiefs, catching 6-of-14 targets for 42 yards. He's now been held to fewer than 90 receiving yards in four of his last five games. This could be a spike week for Adams, as the Seahawks rank 17th in PPR points per game allowed to wideouts. There's a good chance that Aaron Rodgers tries to get his top target more involved in the offense in this game. Consider Adams as a Top-2 wideout in this exploitable matchup and favorable game environment.
Matchups We Hate:
Seahawks RBs
Alex Collins has been held to 79 rushing yards on 26 carries in his last two games. Rashaad Penny has amassed 13 touches for only 16 yards during that span. Travis Homer has taken away some work as well (five touches against the Jaguars). This is a situation to avoid, especially even in an exploitable matchup against a Packers defense that ranks 22nd in rush DVOA. It's clear that the Seahawks like to run the football, but I just can't trust Collins as anything more than a touchdown-dependent FLEX.
UPDATE: Chris Carson has officially been ruled out.
Other Matchups:
Aaron Jones (RB, GB)
Aaron Jones has averaged 18 touches per game in the last two weeks, including only 12 against the Chiefs. A.J. Dillon has seen an increased role, rushing 24 times for 124 yards while catching all four of his targets for 44 yards. The fact that Dillon out-targeted Jones by four last week is a bit concerning, keeping Jones in the lukewarm section. Let's remember that Jones only has three Top-12 finishes this season with only two since Week 2. The Seahawks are allowing the third-most PPR points per game this season, but I still have to leave Jones as a lukewarm play this week given his recent production and decreased usage. Consider him as a low-end RB1, but the matchup is there for a spike week, I'm just not too optimistic. Dillon has earned a role as a FLEX.
Injuries:
SEA RB Chris Carson (neck)
Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos
Spread: Broncos -3
Implied Total: Eagles (20.8) vs. Broncos (23.8)
Pace: Eagles (2nd) vs. Broncos (31st)
Scheme: Eagles (52% Pass, 48% Rush) vs. Broncos (57% Pass, 43% Rush)
Eagles Off. DVOA: 17.0% Pass (17th), 3.0% Rush (4th)
Broncos Def. DVOA: 7.8% Pass (15th), -5.4% Rush (23rd)
Eagles Def. DVOA: 12.6% Pass (21st), -7.5% Rush (20th)
Broncos Off. DVOA: 22.8% Pass (12th), -8.3% Rush (16th)
Matchups We Love:
Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI)
Dallas Goedert has seen impressive usage since Zach Ertz was traded to the Arizona Cardinals. Goedert has played 84.29% of the snaps with a 28.57% target share. The only reason why we haven't heard more about this is that the Eagles have been so run-heavy during this stretch, with Jalen Hurts attempting only 65 passes. If Philly is forced to go a bit more pass-heavy in this game, we could see a spike week for Goedert. The Broncos are allowing the second-fewest PPR points per game to tight ends, but I'm betting on the volume here.
Broncos RBs
Melvin Gordon (21 ATT, 80 YDS, 1 TD) and Javonte Williams (17 ATT, 111 YDS) had big games against the Cowboys last week. The problem is that this was a unique game script where the Broncos played with a commanding lead - that's not going to happen often. However, the two backs are in a smash spot against an Eagles defense that ranks 22nd in Rush EPA. We could see the Broncos continue to feed this dynamic duo in this spot. I prefer Williams because I feel that we still haven't seen his ceiling yet. It feels like he has a highlight reel run every week. He's elite at breaking tackles and this could be the week where he truly pops off. Consider both backs as RB2s in this good matchup.
Jerry Jeudy (WR, DEN)
Jerry Jeudy leads the Broncos with a 24% target share in two games since returning from injury. He's posted a 6.8 average depth of target during this stretch, which indicates that the Broncos want to get him more involved underneath. That's great news against an Eagles defense that just allowed Keenan Allen to catch 12-of-13 targets for 104 yards last week. Philly is allowing the fourth-fewest PPR points per game to wideouts, but they're 18th in Dropback EPA. Jeudy looks poised for a spike week in this spot.
Noah Fant (TE, DEN)
Noah Fant returns to the lineup just in time to take on an Eagles defense allowing the most PPR points per game to opposing tight ends. Fant has strong volume stats for a tight end, posting an 85.8% snap share and 19.63% target share. The athletic tight end has four Top-8 finishes this season, including one as overall TE1. The risk here is that the Broncos go run-heavy to take advantage of this porous rush defense, but I'm betting on the talent and matchup with Fant here.
Matchups We Hate:
Eagles RBs
Jordan Howard has become the lead back for the Eagles, combining for 29 carries, 128 yards, and three touchdowns in his last two games. Boston Scott has totaled 22 touches during that span, while Kenneth Gainwell has been a non-factor. This is a situation to avoid because even though Howard has touchdown equity, he doesn't offer anything in the passing game. Denver ranks 21st in Rush EPA, but I'm not excited about starting anyone from this committee. Consider Howard as a touchdown-dependent FLEX.
DeVonta Smith (WR, PHI)
DeVonta Smith came alive against the Chargers last week, catching 5-of-6 targets for 116 yards. The problem here is that there's not enough volume to make you feel comfortable starting Smith each week. This is because the Eagles have been extremely run-heavy in the last two weeks. Jalen Hurts has attempted fewer than 20 pass attempts in consecutive games. The Broncos defense also did a great job slowing down Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb last week. I'll keep Smith in the lukewarm section because he dominates target and air yard share for Philly, but I'm not particularly excited about this matchup.
Broncos WRs
Courtland Sutton hasn't produced well since Jeudy's return, combining for three receptions and 49 yards in two games. He's even been outproduced by Tim Patrick, who has put up 7 receptions, 149 yards, and a touchdown during this stretch. Patrick has racked up 80+ yards three times this season. It's clear that he's still going to play a role in this offense, which really makes Sutton a volatile option. The return of Noah Fant makes things even more unclear. I'd steer clear of this situation and focus on Fant and Jeudy as the preferred pass-catchers.
Other Matchups:
Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI)
Jalen Hurts has been impacted by this shift to a run-heavy offensive philosophy, totaling only 31 pass attempts in his last two games. He's finished as QB12 and QB24 during that span. The good news is that Hurts has combined for 133 rushing yards during this stretch, but he's lost some touchdown equity to Jordan Howard. Simply put, Hurts does not possess the same type of ceiling that he showed earlier in the season under these new circumstances. I wouldn't be too excited about starting him this week. He's a low-end QB1 against a Broncos defense that ranks 9th in Dropback EPA.
Teddy Bridgewater (QB, DEN)
Teddy Bridgewater has been quietly efficient this season. He ranks 2nd in EPA + CPOE composite, behind only Kyler Murray. Bridgewater is completing 70.2 percent of his passes with 14 touchdowns and five interceptions. Since Jerry Jeudy returned to the lineup, Bridgewater has put up consecutive games of 8.0+ yards per attempt. He'll now get Noah Fant back in time to take on an Eagles defense that just got shredded by Justin Herbert for an 84.2 completion percentage at 9.4 yards per attempt. Bridgewater is a viable streamer here, but his ceiling is capped by the Broncos' slow pace and run-heavy tendencies.
Injuries:
There aren't any injuries to fantasy-relevant players in this game.
Matchups Analysis - Sunday Night Football
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
Spread: Chiefs -2.5
Implied Total: Chiefs (27.5) vs. Raiders (25.0)
Pace: Chiefs (7th) vs. Raiders (17th)
Scheme: Chiefs (60% Pass, 40% Rush) vs. Raiders (63% Pass, 37% Rush)
Chiefs Off. DVOA: 22.7% Pass (13th), -0.9% Rush (8th)
Raiders Def. DVOA: 9.2% Pass (17th), -12.5% Rush (16th)
Chiefs Def. DVOA: 23.7% Pass (27th), -2.2% Rush (29th)
Raiders Off. DVOA: 16.7% Pass (18th), -15.2% Rush (23rd)
Matchups We Love:
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
Travis Kelce started to come alive last week against the Packers, catching 5-of-8 targets for 68 yards and a touchdown. Despite his struggles this season, Kelce still ranks as overall TE1. He takes on a Raiders defense allowing the sixth-most PPR points per game to opposing tight ends. I believe that the key to getting the Chiefs' offense back on track is to find a way to pepper Kelce with targets. Look for another strong performance from the best tight end in football this week.
Darren Waller (TE, LV)
We started to see Darren Waller get back to his usual high volume last week, as he caught 7-of-11 targets for 92 yards against the Giants. It was Waller's first double-digit target game since Week 1, where he had 19 targets against the Ravens. Waller has a great matchup against a Chiefs defense allowing the fourth-most PPR points per game to opposing tight ends. This looks like a heavyweight bout between the two best tight ends in the NFL. Look for Waller to go shot-for-shot with Kelce here.
Matchups We Hate:
There aren't any matchups to hate among fantasy-relevant players in this projected shootout.
Other Matchups:
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
Patrick Mahomes continues to be one of the most surprising disappointments in the NFL. In his last three games, he's finished as QB21, QB16, and QB22. While Mahomes is too good to continue to play this poorly, it's concerning that he's now averaged fewer than seven yards per attempt in five of his last seven games. This game projects as a shootout, so we could see Mahomes bounce back, but I have to leave him in the lukewarm section because of his recent struggles.
Darrel Williams (RB, KC)
Darrel Williams has been the workhorse in this backfield in CEH's absence, averaging 14.5 carries and 4.5 targets per game in four games. Las Vegas ranks 7th in Rush EPA, but they're tied for 21st in PPR points per game allowed to running backs. You have to like how Williams is being used in the passing game, which raises his weekly floor. He looks like a volume-based RB2 in this projected shootout. Williams is basically a better version of Devontae Booker as a workhorse back in a better offense.
UPDATE: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is unlikely to return this weekend.
Tyreek Hill (WR, KC)
Tyreek Hill continues to see ridiculous volume, totaling 75 targets in his last six games. The Chiefs haven't been able to find him downfield though, so he's been dominating underneath. Hill hasn't put up over 10 yards per reception in five consecutive games. This is actually a tough matchup against a Raiders defense that ranks 10th in Pass EPA, allowing the third-fewest PPR points per game to opposing wideouts. While Hill's volume is awesome, this feels like more of a floor week for him.
Derek Carr (QB, LV)
Derek Carr looks like a viable streamer against a Chiefs defense that ranks 28th in Dropback EPA. Carr ranks 6th with 8.7 air yards, demonstrating a willingness to throw downfield. Perhaps DeSean Jackson's debut will help out Carr in this projected shootout. Carr has been one of the more underrated fantasy quarterbacks, as he has four Top-10 finishes this season. It wouldn't surprise me to see him hit his weekly ceiling in this exploitable matchup. Carr is one of my favorite streamers this week.
Josh Jacobs (RB, LV)
Josh Jacobs turned in an efficient outing last week, rushing 13 times for 76 yards while catching all four of his targets for 19 yards. The issue here is that we're starting to see a timeshare with Kenyan Drake, whether that is due to Jacobs' knee issue is unclear. Last week, Jacobs played 49.28% of the snaps, while Drake was at 44.93%. Jacobs had 17 touches and Drake had 10 touches. Drake is making much more of an impact in the passing game, as he caught 6-of-8 targets for 70 yards last week. This is a good matchup against a Chiefs defense that ranks 27th in Rush EPA. Consider Jacobs as a mid-tier RB2 with Drake as a viable FLEX in full-PPR formats.
Hunter Renfrow (WR, LV)
Hunter Renfrow has been a dependable option, especially in full-PPR leagues, as he's put up six or more targets in seven of eight games this season, including five games with eight or more targets. This profiles as a game where Renfrow could see more volume because the Raiders are a pass-heavy team and will likely have to air it out against this vulnerable Chiefs pass defense. Look for Renfrow to put up 7+ targets once again, making him a high-floor WR3 in full-PPR formats.
Injuries:
KC RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (knee)
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