Fantasy Football RB Stat Busts/Sleepers - Missed Tackles Forced Per Attempt

Dave Ventresca analyzes potential fantasy football running back sleepers and busts for the 2024 season based on missed tackles forced per attempt.

With the steady increase of committees over the years, running back has become one of the most frustrating positions for fantasy football managers. The days of endless bell-cow backs are gone. Despite the rise of committees, running back remains one of the most important positions in fantasy football. Gamers still need to pay sharp attention to the position and identifying potential sleepers and busts can be the difference in missing the playoffs or winning a championship.

One way to do so is by analyzing where backs finish in the missed tackles forced per attempt (MTF/ATT) statistic. This stat shows us which backs are capable of producing explosive plays that can lead to spike weeks. Backs who finish high in this metric are the ones to target, and those who grade poorly are potential landmines to avoid.

Make sure you keep up to date with all your fantasy football needs by following RotoBaller on X and checking out RotoBaller.com. Here are several running back sleepers and busts based on MTF/ATT. All MTF/ATT data is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data Suite*

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Fantasy Football RB Sleepers

Antonio Gibson - New England Patriots

2023 was not Gibson’s year. He had a career-low 265 rushing yards and scored just one rushing touchdown. Gibson fell out of favor with the Washington Commanders and signed a three-year, $11.25 million deal with the Patriots this offseason. While last year was not his best, there’s still reason for optimism. Among running backs with at least 65 carries, Gibson ranked first in MTF/ATT.

This suggests that Gibson still has the same playmaking ability that led to RB12 and RB13 finishes in PPR formats from 2020-2021. Rhamondre Stevenson was not effective last year. If he continues to struggle, Gibson could seize the lead role. He currently has a National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC) average draft position (ADP) of 165th overall. Gibson is a solid late-round selection for fantasy drafters, particularly those who choose a zero RB strategy.

Jaylen Warren - Pittsburgh Steelers

Warren is coming off a strong season that saw him finish as the PPR RB22 despite splitting touches with fellow rusher Najee Harris. Last year, among running backs with at least 100 carries, Warren ranked first in MTF/ATT.

Jaylen Warren subs in for Najee Harris on 3rd-and-7. Stays in.

Then a long TD run.

More speed than given credit for. Good player. pic.twitter.com/6oK9NvhUmj

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) August 19, 2023

The Steelers have declined Harris’s fifth-year option. This might indicate that he is no longer in the team’s future plans. Warren outperformed Harris in MTF/ATT and a variety of other metrics. He has a career 5.1 yards per carry (YPC) compared to Harris’s 3.9. At this point, it seems pretty clear that Warren is the better back. It may only be a matter of time before he completely takes over this backfield and emerges as the preferred fantasy play.

Jaleel McLaughlin - Denver Broncos

McLaughlin displayed impressive bursts and quickness whenever he touched the football as a rookie.

Who picked up Jaleel McLaughlin 💪
pic.twitter.com/9EmqarvKMi

— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) October 8, 2023

Among rushers with 65 carries, McLaughlin finished fifth in MTF/ATT. Running backs have always been heavily involved in Sean Payton’s offense. After a disappointing season from Javonte Williams, McLaughlin may command more touches in 2024.

Listed at 5-foot-7 and 180 pounds, it’s unlikely McLaughlin ever becomes a featured back. However, he can still be a useful asset in PPR leagues if he can carve out a Reggie Bush-type role. McLaughlin currently has an NFFC ADP of 185.98. At this cost, there is no risk. If he hits, congrats, you found a gem with the last pick of your draft. If he doesn’t hit, kick him to the curb.

Khalil Herbert - Chicago Bears

Herbert hoped to become the Bears’ lead rusher for the 2024 season. Instead, the team signed D'Andre Swift to a three-year, $24 million contract in free agency. It’s understandable as Swift is coming off a career year, and Herbert has never totaled more than 731 rushing yards in a season. However, Herbert’s underlying data paints a different picture.

Among running backs with 65 carries, Herbert finished 11th in MTF/ATT last year. He’s finished higher than Swift in MTF/ATT in the previous three seasons. There is precedent for a team turning away from a back after signing him to a big contract. Just last year, we saw the Carolina Panthers bench starter Miles Sanders in favor of Chuba Hubbard after they inked Sanders to a four-year, $25.4 million deal.

If Swift struggles or injuries plague him, don’t be surprised if Herbert wrestles the starting job away. Consider him one of the top handcuffs available in drafts this year. He could be a major asset to fantasy managers in all leagues if the opportunity presents itself.

Fantasy Football RB Busts

Rachaad White - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

While White enjoyed a strong 2023 en route to a PPR RB4 finish, he graded poorly across numerous key metrics. Among rushers with at least 100 carries, White finished 42nd out of 49 backs in MTF/ATT. He was flat-out bad last year and any metric will tell you that. However, volume was on his side, and White provided fantasy football results despite his extreme inefficiency.

Tampa Bay’s coaching staff has made it clear that it expects White to improve in certain areas in 2024. The club also selected running back Bucky Irving in the fourth round of April’s draft and discussed the rookie’s impressive burst and decisiveness during minicamp. White might be on a shorter leash this year. If he continues to struggle, it shouldn’t be surprising if the coaching staff looks elsewhere to improve the ground game.

Javonte Williams - Denver Broncos

Williams’ 2023 was a disappointment. Among backs with at least 100 carries, Williams finished 41st in MTF/ATT. It’s important to note that he was coming off a major knee injury last year. Running backs typically do not return to form until two years removed from major knee surgery. Williams finished third in MTF/ATT in 2021, so a return to form is possible but not guaranteed.

Williams enters the 2024 season healthy by all accounts, but he needs a strong start to the year. Denver has plenty of other options (see Jaleel McLaughlin above), and coach Sean Payton has no ties to Williams. If he struggles, Williams could fall out of favor and be replaced as the season progresses.

Alvin Kamara - New Orleans Saints

Kamara enters his age-29 season fully entrenched as the team's starting running back. 2023 was another strong season as he finished as the overall RB12 in PPR leagues and was the RB3 in fantasy points per game (PPG).

Alvin Kamara has been putting on a fantasy football clinic in 2023 🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/W07I89EKKN

— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) October 29, 2023

Despite the strong showing, he seems to be a player in decline. Among rushers with at least 100 carries, Kamara finished 40th out of 49 eligible backs in MTF/ATT. He also posted career lows in rushing yards, yards per reception (Y/R), and yards per target (Y/TGT).

Kamara still holds value in PPR leagues thanks to his work as a pass-catcher. Another strong fantasy finish is possible, but he appears to be on his last legs. As an older back with a declining skill set, the writing is on the wall for the longtime fantasy stalwart. Fantasy players should tread lightly in 2024 drafts.

Aaron Jones - Minnesota Vikings

The Green Bay Packers cut Jones in the middle of NFL free agency. He soon latched on with the Vikings after signing a one-year deal. The Packers, though, may have been on to something. Among rushers with 100 attempts, Jones finished 33rd in MTF/ATT in 2023. This was down from consecutive fifth-place finishes in 2021 and 2022.

Luckily for Jones, his main threat for touches, Ty Chandler, finished 47th in MTF/ATT last year. However, this regime looked outside the organization when it traded for Cam Akers. Meanwhile, starter Alexander Mattison was struggling. Akers was eventually injured, but the team turned to Chandler to replace Mattison.

Minnesota signed Jones as its starting back, but it’s no guarantee he will remain the RB1 for the entire year. Entering his age-29 season, Jones struggled with injuries and declining play in 2023. It’s completely plausible Minnesota will begin experimenting with other options if Jones proves to be ineffective as the starter.

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