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Andrew Ball looks at Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Ladd McConkey's fantasy outlook for the 2024 season. Where is Ladd McConkey worth drafting in redraft and dynasty leagues?
Ladd McConkey may share a surname with a pub owner in Ireland but you can wager the house that he’s far more athletic.
The ex-Georgia Bulldog is also entering an ideal situation in Los Angeles. Last year’s first-round pick, Quentin Johnston, failed his initial test as an NFL-caliber wideout. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are donning new uniforms in 2024. The path is clear to a healthy amount of targets, should the offensive philosophy allow for it.
With three seasons of SEC Football and two National Championships, McConkey has endured a proven training ground. Does that better prepare him for the gauntlet of an NFL schedule or overrate him as a fantasy football prospect?
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College Production
I can't blame you if you had never heard of McConkey before the pre-draft process. He never truly broke out and therefore wasn't mentioned alongside the top wideouts in college football. The raw stats don't stack up. He had just two 100-yard contests in his four years in Athens. During his final season, missed time (back, knee, ankle) impacted his numbers. Tight end Brock Bowers was the star of the Bulldogs' passing game.
But let's peel back the curtain to find out why he was a sought-after prospect. NFL defenses have shifted to zone coverage more often. McConkey dominated zone defense in college with 4.27 yards per route run. He wasn't as elite in man-to-man looks but he still showed an ability to beat defenders down the field. He flashed in his limited opportunities, leaving NFL general managers clamoring for more.
Then came the NFL Combine. McConkey became one of the biggest winners of the annual event in Indianapolis. The 22-year-old logged the sixth-fastest 40-yard dash time (4.39 seconds) and looked incredibly smooth in the gauntlet.
RD 2 | PK 34 - Chargers: Ladd McConkey WR, Georgia
The @Chargers select McConkey, who earned the fifth-highest athleticism score (90) among WR in this class. McConkey's 3.97-second short shuttle at the Combine is in the top 5th percentile of all WR since 2003.#NFLDraft |… pic.twitter.com/6JkRJMPv6k
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) April 26, 2024
McConkey ran about a quarter of his routes from the slot in 2023. With his average wide receiver size (6-foot-0, 186 lbs.), McConkey may need to operate a touch more from the inside. Regardless, he's a wideout with the chops and experience to line up anywhere.
Rookie Year Situation
Justin Herbert is one of the game’s best passers and someone in Los Angeles has to catch the football. Between Allen, Williams, Gerald Everett, and Austin Ekeler, 320 targets are vacated from last season (and that number would be even higher if not for the early season-ending injury to Williams). Entering his fourth season, Joshua Palmer appears to be nothing more than a third or fourth option on any NFL depth chart. Johnston is young enough to salvage his career but he endured one of the roughest rookie seasons for a wide receiver in recent memory.
Quentin Johnston could have won this game for the Chargers pic.twitter.com/v9dUQj1OVr
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) November 19, 2023
Outside of Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers, McConkey has the clearest path to becoming his team's WR1 than any other rookie entering the league. But being atop the depth chart differs from city to city. Arizona and New York won't be timid throwing the ball. Los Angeles might.
Every transaction the new regime has made points to building an elite defense and bruising running attack. Jim Harbaugh tabbed former Baltimore offensive coordinator Greg Roman to command that side of the football. The team parted ways with their stalwart wide receivers. They also brought in beefy running back Gus Edwards and former Ravens' starter J.K. Dobbins, while drafting offensive tackle Joe Alt with the fifth overall pick. This team will run the football.
For those who have been following fantasy football since the early 2010s, think about Roman's career. In San Francisco (with Harbaugh), Michael Crabtree and Anquan Boldin combined for three straight 1,000-yard seasons. In Buffalo in 2015, Sammy Watkins also topped 15 PPR fantasy points. In his final season in Buffalo plus his four-year tenure in Baltimore, receivers didn't hit that mark, but Marquise Brown was close in 2021. When there's a capable WR1, it's not all doom and gloom for Roman's passing games.
Fantasy Outlook
In a best-case scenario, McConkey will average 12 to 13 PPR fantasy points and emerge as a late-season WR3 once he gets comfortable with the NFL game. That's essentially what Jayden Reed and Rashee Rice averaged in their debut campaigns. Both rookies entered the league on teams with targets and playing time up for grabs and took advantage.
In a worst-case scenario, McConkey struggles to translate his game, the passing attack falters, and Herbert leans on Palmer and new arrival D.J. Chark when the Chargers are forced to put the ball in the air. It takes more than one offseason to reinvent a roster. The work is far from done for Harbaugh and GM Joe Hortiz. There's a decent chance that the Chargers lead the league in run rate because the passing offense truly isn't capable.
49ers, Bills, and Ravens rush EPA/play and success rate rankings under Greg Roman (dating back to 2012):
2012 (SF) - 3rd and 1st
2013 (SF) - 22nd and 14th
2014 (SF) - 26th and 12th
2015 (BUF) - 5th and 15th
2016 (BUF) - 1st and 1st
2019 (BAL) - 1st and 1st
2020 (BAL) - 1st and…— Steven Haglund (@StevenIHaglund) February 2, 2024
Jim Harbaugh won a National Championship at Michigan with his quarterback, first-round pick J.J. McCarthy, attempting 22 passes per game. In San Francisco, the coach went deep into the postseason three times, including one Super Bowl appearance. Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick weren't putting the ball in the air much more often than McCarthy. It's Harbaugh's winning formula and it would surprise nobody to see him continue his ways.
Still, drafting the potential top receiver for a quarterback like Herbert can't be passed up, especially in rookie dynasty drafts. McConkey is worth a late first or early second-round pick in those formats. He'll also be a popular late-round commodity in redraft formats for managers hoping to strike gold in Southern California.
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