Fantasy Football Draft Targets And Avoids - AFC South Breakdowns

July 24, 2024

Adam looks at each NFL team in the AFC South and identifies players from each team that fantasy football managers should be targeting and avoiding in 2024.

In my first draft targets and avoids article, I took a look at the AFC East division. A few of my favorite fantasy football targets in 2024 come from those four teams. If you haven't yet checked out that article, I highly recommend doing so.

In my second draft targets and avoids article, we'll take a look specifically at the AFC South. Which players should you be targeting in 2024 fantasy football drafts, and which players should you be avoiding? Of course, you may want to target or avoid more than one player from each of these teams, but I've selected my favorite player to target and the guy I'm most trying to avoid drafting this season.

So, let's get right to it, here are my top targets and avoids for every AFC South team in 2024.

Houston Texans

Target – Tank Dell

Tank Dell as a rookie was really good last season. He wasn’t quite Puka Nacua good, but he still received the 15th-highest PFF grade among all wide receivers (83.4). In the seven games he played with teammate Nico Collins, Dell actually out-targeted Collins (54 to 52) and produced more fantasy points per game (18.8 to 18.2). The guy’s a stud:

CJ STROUD. ABSOLUTE DIME.

📺: #AZvsHOU on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/jckqnJwdb2 pic.twitter.com/XAxQ4LyKR1

— NFL (@NFL) November 19, 2023

Yet, it’s Collins with an Underdog average draft position (ADP) of 17.7 (WR12) compared to an ADP of 34.4 (WR25) for Dell. So, what gives? Well, Dell missed the Texans’ final eight games of the season (including two playoff games) after fracturing his fibula early in Week 13 vs. the Broncos. That led to Collins having multiple monstrous performances down the stretch, including two games with 34+ PPR fantasy points. 

Yes, Dell is coming off a fractured fibula last season, but it sounds like he’s ahead of schedule and won’t have any limitations come training camp:

#Texans wide receiver Tank Dell @Tankdell4 off to encouraging start in speedy recovery from broken fibula, back running with his private coach Delfonte Diamond @DelfonteDiamond 'He's way ahead of schedule. Hasn't missed a beat. He'll be more than ready when OTAs jump off' @KPRC2 pic.twitter.com/mEqPM7IH1k

— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) March 17, 2024

Anytime a rookie wide receiver posts the 14th-highest yards per route run (2.36), we should be taking note. Target Dell anywhere and everywhere this season.

Avoid – Stefon Diggs

If Diggs landed anywhere but Houston, I’d be excited. But here we are. Instead of competing for targets with Gabe Davis, Khalil Shakir, and Dalton Kincaid, Diggs will now have to compete with two of the league’s best young ascending wideouts in Nico Collins and Tank Dell. Yes, these guys are elite, don’t get it twisted.

Diggs also saw some regression for the first time in his illustrious career in 2023. He recorded his lowest yards per route run (2.03), yards per target (7.39), and yards per catch (11.06) as a Buffalo Bill. He still managed to finish as a low-end WR1 due to his incredible volume (160 targets). That’s likely going to change in Houston. 

Diggs is also now entering his age-30 season. While he can absolutely still play (as evidenced by his 29.5% target share last season), he’s a different receiver than he was three or four years ago. Collins and Dell also have an entire year head start working with C.J. Stroud. It’s not that Diggs won’t have a role, but he’s being priced as a WR2 and I’m just not convinced that’s the case when all is said and done. Shoot your shot at an ascending talent like Dell instead.

Indianapolis Colts

Target – Anthony Richardson

I get it, you don’t trust Anthony Richardson after he suffered a concussion and a shoulder injury as a rookie. He seems what some might call “injury prone.” Let’s not ding him too much for that as injuries tend to be random. Sure, his play style might lead to more opportunities for injury, but Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen have found ways to avoid serious injuries throughout their NFL careers thus far. 

That being said, the upside case for Richardson is massive. It’s essentially what we saw from Hurts back in 2022 with Shane Steichen as his offensive coordinator in Philadelphia. That year, Hurts was the overall QB1, averaging 25.6 fantasy points per game. He rushed 165 times for 760 yards and 13 touchdowns in just 15 games. 

Yes, it’s a small sample size, but Richardson averaged 25.8 fantasy points per game in the two games he finished as a rookie. In Week 2 vs. Houston, he put up 17.7 fantasy points in less than a half before exiting the game with a concussion. Again, the upside is just massive given Steichen’s history with mobile quarterbacks and his willingness to draw up designed runs for them in the red zone.

Anthony Richardson with Shane Steichen is going to be sweet pic.twitter.com/Zd3eXTXSb6

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) May 14, 2024

Additionally, the AFC South looks like it could be very competitive this season. The Jaguars, Titans, and Texans can all put up points in bunches. That should lead to some shootouts for the Colts, which means Richardson is putting up fantasy points. Don’t be shocked to see some overall QB1 weeks from AR1 in 2024.

Avoid – Adonai Mitchell

It’s hard to get behind AD Mitchell this season, even as just the 57th wide receiver off the board. That’s because Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs are both good receivers. Some might even refer to Pittman as very good considering he drew a 30.5% target share last season. Downs was impressive in his own right with the 10th-best win rate vs. man coverage (47.2%) among all wide receivers. He mostly manned the slot but still drew a target on over 20% of his routes. That's a number Mitchell never hit in his college career.

That leaves Mitchell to fight for the WR3 spot with Alec Pierce. Pierce rarely came off the field last season but was also rarely targeted. He saw just 65 targets in 17 games, good for just an 11.9% target share. He was used as a field-stretcher, much like Mitchell will be this season. That’s exactly what Mitchell was in college, as evidenced by his average depth of target of 15.6 yards. That position in the Colts offense doesn’t appear as if it’ll lead to very many fantasy points with Richardson under center.

Pierce caught just two passes for 43 yards on five targets in two full games played with Richardson last season. Again, a small sample size, but Richardson had eyes for Pittman and Downs in the games he played last season.

Now, Mitchell could be much better than Pierce, but that's no guarantee. He’d have to be a lot better to take targets away from Pittman and Downs, who, again, are both really good receivers. Mitchell was never a high target earner in college. As mentioned previously, he's never had a targets per route run rate over 20% in his collegiate career.

Brian Thomas Jr. broke out as a 20-year-old at LSU, but even in that season, his target per route run rate was just 20.2%.

Adonai Mitchell was the only 2024 WR prospect that I evaluated with a lower single-season best⬇️ pic.twitter.com/cPFCd7o32A

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) July 10, 2024

I like most of the Colts skill players this season due to the offensive environment they find themselves in. That includes Richardson (QB5), Jonathan Taylor (RB5), Pittman Jr. (WR24), and Downs (WR62). Despite Richardson having a cannon for an arm, it’s hard to imagine Mitchell (WR57) being anything more than a deep (pun intended) best ball target this season that could put together a good game or two.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Target – Travis Etienne

He’s most likely not going to put up Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, or Bijan Robinson numbers, but Travis Etienne can absolutely be your RB1 in 2024. Last season, now two years removed from a Lisfranc injury he suffered in 2021, he got the volume we all expected him to get. He made the most of it, totaling 1,484 yards and 12 touchdowns on 325 touches (267 carries and 58 receptions). Sure, we’d like to see Etienne above 3.78 yards per carry, but volume is king at running back.

Already a multi-TD game for Travis Etienne! @swaggy_t1

📺: #INDvsJAX on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/B4mQvLOt8O pic.twitter.com/q4tHW4U9pP

— NFL (@NFL) October 15, 2023

Now, let’s talk about his competition for touches in the Jacksonville backfield in 2024. Okay, next paragraph. All jokes aside, there’s not much depth behind Etienne this season, much like last season. You’ve got second-year back Tank Bigsby and veteran D'Ernest Johnson. The former was one of the stone-cold worst running backs per touch last season. Usually, a lower number of touches leads to increased efficiency, but not for Bigsby. He was also really bad in the passing game:

Every Tank Bigsby target from 2023 pic.twitter.com/3y4yJDZ9qA

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 15, 2024

It’s hard to see Bigsby taking meaningful touches away from Etienne this season, but you also have Johnson. The coaching staff seemed to trust him a bit down the stretch last season. After the bye, Johnson played about 25-30% of the snaps in relief of Etienne. The good thing though for Etienne is that Johnson didn’t take many of the high-value touches. Per PlayerProfiler, he had a route participation of just around 20% from Week 10 through 18 and saw just five red-zone carries on his 32 rush attempts. 

Meanwhile, Etienne led the charge from a volume perspective in those nine games, averaging a 45% route participation rate while seeing 24 red-zone rush attempts. Now, we did see a slight downtick in work for Etienne in 2023 post-bye week. Before the bye, his snap share hovered around 80% while his route participation rate hovered around 65%. So, Johnson did carve out a small piece of the pie toward the end of last season. Even if it remains similar this season, Etienne looks to be in line for another large workload and another top-10 finish.

Avoid – Evan Engram

Engram was a top-5 tight end last season and is now being deemed an avoid this season even as just the eighth tight end off the board. So, what gives? Well, his splits with and without Christian Kirk on the field should give us some pause.

From Week 1 through 12 playing with Kirk last season, Engram averaged just 47.6 receiving yards on 7.5 targets per game. With Kirk out from Weeks 13 through 18, Engram averaged 73 receiving yards on 10.2 targets per game. That's a massive difference. Granted, Engram was still doing his thing playing alongside Calvin Ridley. The difference was he was now competing for targets with just one really good receiver (Ridley) as opposed to two really good receivers (Ridley and Kirk).

Yes, Ridley, and Zay Jones for that matter, are now gone. The Jaguars didn’t hesitate to replace both of them in the offseason. In fact, they prioritized the position by using their first-round draft pick on LSU’s Brian Thomas Jr. They also handed field-stretcher Gabriel Davis $24M guaranteed. 

With a plethora of other pass-catching weapons, Engram could once again fall to third on the target totem poll. If that happens, it’ll be hard to see him finish as a top-5 tight end for a second consecutive season in 2024 given his reliance on heavy volume to score a significant amount of fantasy points.

Tennessee Titans

Target – Tyjae Spears

The Titans signed Tony Pollard this offseason, but Spears was able to carve out a sizable role as a rookie playing alongside Derrick Henry. His elite receiving profile led to him averaging 0.90 fantasy points per opportunity, which was 13th most among running backs. Spears found himself with the fourth-highest PFF receiving grade (as a rookie!) behind only Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, and Alvin Kamara (min. 250 snaps). We think of those three guys as elite receivers out of the backfield and Spears graded right up there with them. Seems like good company to be amongst in your first year as a pro.

What about Pollard? Didn’t the Titans sign him to essentially take over the Henry role? Maybe, but also maybe not. It seems as if the Titans are more intent on using Pollard and Spears interchangeably. Rather than have Spears come in on obvious passing downs, give each guy a series and let them work. Here’s offensive coordinator Nick Holz talking about how both guys can be three-down backs:

#Titans OC Nick Holz on Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears:

“We see it 1A, 1B, and they’re both just gonna play a ton, get a lot of carries and let ‘em roll.” pic.twitter.com/tTpmUx0GiH

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) April 10, 2024

If it’s really one series for Pollard the next series for Spears to start the season, my money is on Spears to take the majority of the backfield snaps for Tennessee. I’m strictly betting on a younger, ascending talent winning out in this situation. Spears was incredible as a rookie, and it’s going to be a challenge to keep him off the field when he can do so much for your offense.

#TitanUp RB Tyjae Spears. Electric with the ball in his hands. pic.twitter.com/adMbnzYH1k

— Kyle Lindemann (@LuckIsMadeFF) June 20, 2024

It’s not that Pollard can’t be good or make guys miss on occasion. We saw him do that in Dallas with more limited snaps when Ezekiel Elliott was the main guy. It’s just that Pollard is now 27 years old and is coming off a season in which he had a career-high 307 touches. Also, it’s often Year 2 where we see young, efficient running backs see the biggest uptick in volume. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Spears added to that list.

9/10 of the biggest RB workload increases (that mattered) have occurred in Year 2.

Largest jumps in Weighted Opportunities/G
[min. 8 games, results in 15+ FPG, 2014-23]

1. *James Conner, 2018 [+16.8 WO/G]
2. *Kyren Williams, 2023 [+15.6]
3. *Devonta Freeman, 2015 [+15.4]
4.…

— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) May 11, 2024

Don’t miss out on the Spears breakout in 2024.

Avoid – Calvin Ridley

Ridley is a good player in a not-so-good situation. Sure, the Titans might throw more, but Will Levis is still an unproven commodity at this point. His completion percentage of 58.4 and four games without a passing touchdown last season leave a lot to be desired. However, the Titans have a new head coach in Brian Callahan, and a new offensive coordinator in Nick Holz this season. The hope is that Callahan brings his pass-happy tendencies with him from Cincinnati. 

Even if that happens, Ridley will now compete for targets with one of the best receivers in the game in DeAndre Hopkins. Even at the ripe age of 31, Hopkins still looked elite last season. He backed it up with a 28.6% target share, a 41.6% air yards share, and a 2.16 yards per route run. He was even better with Levis at quarterback in 2023. In eight games with Levis under center, Hopkins averaged a whopping 141.5 air yards on 8.6 targets per game.

Not only will Ridley be competing with Hopkins for targets, but also Tyler Boyd and Chigoziem Okonkwo, as well as running backs Pollard and Spears. Don’t forget, Pollard and Spears are both considered very good pass-catchers out of the backfield. So it’s not just Hopkins we need to worry about when considering Ridley in a new offense.

Last season, after not playing football for nearly two years, Ridley registered his lowest target share (22.6%) since 2019. And guess who he shared the field with in 2019? That’s right, an elite 30-year-old Julio Jones. Now, Ridley is five years older, in a new offense, playing with an unproven quarterback, and playing alongside another elite receiver in Hopkins. Avoid him at his WR35 price tag.

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