Fantasy Football Quarterback Busts and Draft Avoids for 2025

Andrew Ball's quarterback busts for the 2025 fantasy football season. His top quarterbacks to avoid in redraft leagues. Read the expert fantasy football draft analysis.

The NBA postseason is underway, and the NFL Draft is in the rearview. Still, it's never too early to look ahead to the 2025 fantasy football season.

While it's more fun to be optimistic about player outlooks, somebody has to be the bearer of bad news. Not every player will succeed in the new year.

Let's jump into some early picks for quarterbacks to avoid in 2025.

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Sam Darnold, QB, Seattle Seahawks

The Kevin O'Connell offensive system is the best for Darnold's skill set. The coaches helped Darnold register career-high marks in nearly every major passing statistic (over 4,300 passing yards, 66 percent completion rate, and 35 passing touchdowns) and his first winning season as a starting quarterback.

New Seattle offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak is a disciple of Kyle Shanahan, an arm's reach away from the Sean McVay-O'Connell tree. He'll design the offense around Darnold, who Seattle handpicked over incumbent Geno Smith.

Unfortunately, it's not a one-to-one transition. Instead of throwing to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson, he'll target Jaxon Smith-Njigba, an aging Cooper Kupp, and Noah Fant (or rookie Elijah Arroyo).

An even bigger issue is the offensive line. The Vikings boasted a top-10 unit last season (even better before the injury to tackle Christian Darrisaw). Despite the first-round selection of guard Grey Zabel, Seattle's five-man group still is projected to be among the league's worst.

Geno Smith was sacked 50 times in 2024. Darnold's number was 57, despite better protection. He had a longer time to throw (over three seconds) but held onto the ball longer than he should on numerous dropbacks. What happens when the timer shrinks?

Unfortunately, the red flags were on full display in the biggest games of Minnesota's season. A Sunday Night Football audience witnessed 166 yards, a 43.9 percent completion percentage, and zero touchdowns against Detroit with a chance to clinch the NFC's top seed. He took nine sacks and struggled to read the blitz in the Wild Card loss to the Rams.

Back to the new coaching staff. Head coach Mike Macdonald fired offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb after one season calling plays. The Seahawks threw at the fifth-highest rate in 2024. Macdonald wants more from the ground game in 2025, limiting Darnold's opportunities (Darnold had the eighth-most attempts last season).

Mike Macdonald says on @SeattleSports he has fired offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. Says "my vision for our offense was different" than where Grubb thought it was going.

— Dugar, Michael-Shawn (@MikeDugar) January 6, 2025

It almost seems the Seahawks aren't completely convinced of Darnold's abilities. The three-year, $100.5 million contract is misleading. The Seahawks have an early, manageable exit before the duration of Darnold's contract (and the guaranteed money is less than the outgoing Smith).

Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts

Quarterbacks who rack up rushing yards have a built-in advantage over their pocket-passing counterparts. Look at the top of the rankings: Josh Allen (531 rushing yards), Lamar Jackson (915), Jayden Daniels (891), and Jalen Hurts (632) are the consensus top four in the rankings for next season. That group was responsible for four of the five highest rushing totals last year (Kyler Murray finished fourth).

The sixth was Anthony Richardson, with 499 rushing yards in 11 games (10 if you exclude Week 4, when he played 19 percent of the snaps before an injury forced him to the sidelines). Rushing production like that is what enticed fantasy managers in 2023 and 2024. Unfortunately for Richardson, he brings little else to the table.

The former first-round pick has 11 passing touchdowns and 13 interceptions in 15 career games. In 2024, he completed fewer than 50 percent of his pass attempts and temporarily lost his job to 39-year-old Joe Flacco, a quarterback not in the Colts' plans.

The seats for head coach Shane Steichen and general manager Chris Ballard are at least simmering, if not boiling, after two playoff appearances since the latter took the job in 2017. Steichen is .500 in his two seasons. But both are responsible for spending the fourth overall pick on Richardson, a prospect full of flaws entering the league.

The new backup is Daniel Jones, and as much as the NFL community clowns on the guy, he has a winning season under his belt. Jones is also a running quarterback, and the offense won't need to drastically change depending on who is under center. Should the losses begin to pile up in 2025, the coaching staff will bench Richardson in favor of Jones. That is, if Richardson even wins the job in training camp.

From the NFL annual meeting here in Palm Beach:

Colts coach Shane Steichen says Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson will split starting reps beginning in OTAs and the most consistent QB will be the regular season starter.

— Stephen Holder (@HolderStephen) March 31, 2025

In the end, this selection is way more about wins and losses than fantasy football. If Richardson is on the field, he can give managers a game with two rushing touchdowns and a top-12 fantasy score. Injuries and inaccurate passing will prevent that from being consistent. Don't let the rushing upside entice you.

Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield has two top-12 finishes in his seven-year career: 2023 (QB10) and 2024 (QB4).

Given that both of these instances came in his two seasons in Tampa Bay, under two different offensive coordinators, a repeat appearance as a QB1 wouldn't be a surprise. It's Mayfield's draft cost (consensus QB6) that is concerning.

Mayfield's career touchdown rate is 5 percent. In Year 1 in Tampa, it was in line with that average. The figure spiked to 7.2 percent in 2024. No active quarterback has a career rate higher than 6.4 percent.

.@bakermayfield had himself a season 😮‍💨 pic.twitter.com/pGWUexeX1W

— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) April 11, 2025

It's even more unlikely that he replicates his rushing production in 2025. Mayfield logged a career-high 378 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. Outside of the 2019 season, he's had one or zero ground scores. His yardage total accounted for over a quarter of his career numbers. He hasn't reached 170 yards in any other season.

And it wasn't due to an overreliance on his legs because of injuries to his top wide receivers (Mike Evans missed three games, and Chris Godwin's season ended in Week 7). Mayfield had two fewer attempts (60) than the prior season. Defenses gave him enough room to increase his per-carry average by 3.7 yards.

While Liam Coen departed Central Florida for the northern part of the state, Mayfield won't have to learn a new offense. Passing game coordinator Josh Grizzard offers continuity, something Mayfield has rarely had in his professional career. Evans, Godwin, Jalen McMillan, and Cade Otton are returning, plus the addition of first-round pick Emeka Egbuka, and Bucky Irving will lead a dangerous backfield. The Buccaneers could easily remain one of the NFL's most dangerous offenses.

Unless he replicates the outlier 2024 numbers, Mayfield will be more of a low-end QB1 than a top-5 option in 2025.

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