Fantasy Basketball Third Year Breakout Players

December 19, 2020

"Thunder Dan" Palyo looks at fantasy basketball breakout candidates entering their 3rd NBA season. These are mid-round or late-round sleepers in fantasy drafts.

Drafting rookies is always a risk, especially in the “one and done” era that we have with college players now. Some adapt quickly and others end up taking several years to finally evolve their game and become starters or rotational players. And some don't pan out at all.

Instead of targeting rookies in my drafts, I often try to target second or third-year players who I feel are ready to take a leap in the coming season. Some of these guys have had teammates depart in trades or free agency that will thrust them into a bigger role or starting position. Others showed a steady progression of their game throughout their second year. The third year for an NBA player is often the year in which we get a true sense of what the player is really capable of doing statistically.

With that said, let's take look at a few third-year players that are set to have breakout seasons and post some big numbers that will help you win your fantasy basketball league this year.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG/SG

Oklahoma City Thunder

Free SGA! It looks like the 21-year-old guard is about to be the top option for the rebuilding OKC Thunder this season after both Chris Paul and Dennis Schroder departed via trades this offseason. Danilo Gallinari is now in Atlanta and Steven Adams is in New Orleans, too, meaning SGA is the only regular from last year's team still on the roster.

Veterans like George Hill, Al Horford, and Trevor Ariza are set to fill in around the rest of the Thunder's younger players but none of the remaining players have ever been high usage players. SGA's usage rate was a solid 23.8% last season but I think we see that jump up close to 28-30% as he's asked to do as much as he can to carry this team. He returned fifth-round value last season with averages of 19-6-3 and solid percentages. Try to snag him early because he's likely going to be one of the more hyped-up players in the next few weeks, and I think it's well-deserved.

Wendell Carter Jr., PF/C

Chicago Bulls

Carter Jr. was rumored to be involved in some trades on draft night, but when the dust settled he was still in Chicago and projects to be their starting center this season. If he can stay healthy, I think we see a big step forward from WCJ this year. He's managed to play only 44 and 43 games in his first two seasons and the Bulls have yet to commit to giving him full starters' minutes. He went from 25 minutes a game in his rookie season to 29 minutes a game last year. If he settles into 32-34 minutes this season, he should be able to post some very productive numbers (his per-36 average last year was 13.9 points and 11.6 rebounds).

WCJ is a solid rebounder who finished the year averaging 9.4 rebounds a game and 17 double-doubles. He also was a much more efficient scorer in year two as his FG% jumped five points from 48% to 53%. He's a solid free throw shooter and averaged around a steal and block per game. Daniel Gafford is the only other big man who is a legit threat to playing time, and I think Chicago is going to give Carter Jr. the minutes this season to see what he can really do. I'm buying him in a big way and I think he's poised for a breakout.

Michael Porter Jr., PF

Denver Nuggets

MPJ is technically a third-year player but sat out his entire rookie season with a back injury. He wasn't in the rotation at the beginning of the season, but injuries to Gary Harris and Will Barton thrust him into playing time in the second half of the year and he really exploded in the bubble where he averaged 22 points and 8 boards in seven starts and then played a big role in the Nuggets playoff run all the way to the Western Conference finals.

With Paul Millsap playing fewer and fewer minutes in his later years, MPJ seems destined to be the heir apparent at PF for Denver. He shot 42% from downtown last year and has a pure stroke from deep. He has the athleticism and size of Aaron Gordon with the shooting touch of a guard and can even play on the wings if Denver wants to go big.

His role and minutes might remain a bit unclear and I know Denver coach Mike Malone makes everyone nervous with the way he runs his rotations, but MPJ certainly feels like a star in the making and even Malone won't be able to justify limiting him to anything less than 25-28 minutes this season. He's going to score, rebound, hit threes, and rack up some defensive stats and I absolutely want to own him in some of my leagues this year. Whether they are dynasty/keeper leagues or just traditional leagues I think he is going offer a ton of value.

Collin Sexton, PG/SG

Cleveland Caveliers

I was torn on including Sexton on this list for a couple of reasons. For one, I am a Cavs fan and I am hoping my endorsement here does not just reflect some unfounded fanboy optimism for my team that faces another bleak outlook this year. I also wonder, "did Sexton already break out?" or does he still have room to grow on what he did in the second half of last season.

The addition of Darius Garland last season bumped Sexton over to shooting guard and while there are still some glaring weaknesses to his game (38% shooting from downtown, lack of peripheral stats), we are still talking about a guy who averaged 20 points per game in his second season. In 11 games after the All-Star break, he posted 25 points and 4 assists and finished the year shooting 47% from the field.

Stop thinking of Sexton as a point guard and view him as a scorer, because that's what he does best. 20-3-3 on solid percentages is perfectly fine for a shooting guard and I think Sexton's role is only going to continue to grow on this team as they could easily part ways with Kevin Love or Andre Drummond via midseason trades.

Good luck in your drafts, RotoBallers, and never hesitate to reach out to me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS or in the RotoBaller Premium slack chat!

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