X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Battles: Aaron Nola vs. Corbin Burnes, Dylan Cease vs. Sonny Gray, and Cole Ragans vs. Grayson Rodriguez

Aaron Nola - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Corbin examines six fantasy baseball pitchers in some detail to identify which one we should project and rank higher for the rest of the fantasy season in 2024.

It's easy to fall into the weeds when examining fantasy baseball starting pitchers, especially when considering which one we prefer based on the numbers. We'll look at three pairs of starting pitchers who fantasy managers valued highly in ADP. Should we be starting or benching these starting pitchers? What do their skills look like?

In each section, we'll present the argument for each starting pitcher, with a closing verdict that summarizes the data. Though this won't serve as a huge deep dive into each player and their arsenal, it will provide a skill-based examination of each starting pitcher.

We have a beefy article, so let's dive into these starting pitcher battles.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Aaron Nola vs. Corbin Burnes

The Argument for Nola

Aaron Nola has a track record of eating quality innings the most (1,149.2 IP) since 2018 among starting pitchers. The closest pitchers behind him include Jose Berrios (1,095.1) and Zack Wheeler (1,094.2). Among the starting-pitcher leaders in innings with a 15 percent strikeout minus walk rate since 2018, only four had a strikeout minus walk rate above 20 percent with over 900 innings. That list includes Nola, Gerrit Cole, Kevin Gausman, and Max Scherzer.

From a skills and durability standpoint, it's hard to find starting pitchers that rival Nola. Aside from respecting Nola's career, one concerning area in 2024 involves his lowest swinging strike rate since 2016. From 2017 to 2023, Nola's swinging strike rate hovered in the 12-13 percent range.

Nola's curveball remains his top whiff pitch, evidenced by his 16.5 percent swinging strike rate, nearly two percentage points below his career average. However, Nola's swinging strike rates on the changeup (5.1 percent) and cutter (6.7) have reduced in half compared to the career norms. For context, Nola's career swinging strike rate on the changeup sat at 15 percent, with the cutter at 13.8 percent.

We've noticed a gradual downtick in vertical movement over the past few seasons on the curveball and changeup, aligning with the slight decline in the swinging strike rate. Since Nola commands pitches well, the locations haven't changed much from looking at the heat maps.

The Argument for Burnes

While Corbin Burnes hasn't had the extensive track record of Nola, he posted three elite to near-elite consecutive seasons. Burnes joining the Orioles caused fantasy managers to have more intrigue with the home ballpark and team context changing positively. Like Nola, Burnes typically rocked an above-average strikeout minus walk rate. However, we've seen the strikeout minus walk rate gradually decline from 30 percent (2021) to 23 percent (2022) to 16 percent (2023).

The strikeout minus walk rate in 2024 at 17 percent looks similar to last season. Unsurprisingly, Burnes' swinging strike rate went from elite to above average for him since 2021. Since the skills have slightly eroded for Burnes, the xERA in 2021 (2.56) and 2022 (2.87) went from elite to solid, evidenced by his 2023 xERA (3.78) and 2024 (3.36).

Though the above visual shows the whiff rates, it aligns with the swinging strike rates. Interestingly, Burnes traded whiffs on the curveball for the slider. In 2024, Burnes' slider had a 25.1 percent swinging strike rate compared to 19.8 percent in 2023. Meanwhile, he lost whiffs on the curveball, given the 14.1 percent swinging strike rate in 2024 compared to 18.4 percent in 2023. In the peak seasons of 2021 and 2022, the cutter and changeup were on another level, declining by 4-7 percentage points on the cutter and 6-7 points via the changeup.

The slider retained vertical movement levels of 35-36 inches. However, the curveball dropped by around six inches more than in 2022, typically leading to more whiffs and weak contact. That contradicts what we usually find when pitch-level swinging strike rates rise or fall. Regardless, the curveball remains effective against lefties (.168 wOBA), with the slider allowing a .249 wOBA versus right-handed hitters. Burnes still possesses above-average skills in several areas, though it may not be at the elite levels of 2021 and 2022.

 

Verdict of Nola vs. Burnes

Nola's xERA of 3.54 hints at regression based on the 2.77 actual ERA. There have been some luck factors (BABIP, strand rate) in his favor, with a decline in strikeout skills after tons of consistency. Burnes has been dominant to begin the season, though the strand rate hints at luck factors in his favor. Regardless, Burnes rocks above-average skills with his strikeout minus walk and swinging strike rates. Since Burnes boasts more strikeout skills, with Nola seeing a noticeable decline, the edge goes to Burnes for which starting pitcher will finish as the better-ranked pitcher between the two.

 

Dylan Cease vs. Sonny Gray

The Argument for Cease

We know Cease has the stuff to be a dominant strikeout arm, but sometimes consistency can be an issue due to the control. Cease's walk rate improved in 2024, yet the 37 percent ball rate doesn't align. In 2021, Cease's ball rate of 37.7 percent remained similar in 2022 (37.8 percent) and 2023 (38.2 percent). That indicates the strikeout minus walk rate might be unsustainable, with slight regression coming in the walks closer to the career average.

The strikeout stuff for Cease is still elite, with a 15.1 percent swinging strike rate. Cease's slider leads the arsenal, with a ridiculous 20.6 percent swinging strike rate, while the curveball serves as his second-best pitch for whiffs at 12.1 percent (2024). His slider typically highlights the arsenal, with the changeup and curveball mixing in as the next highest whiff option.

One way to see a pitcher's stuff from a movement standpoint involves their vertical break or horizontal sweep percentage on a given pitch. That shows us how much better this pitch moves versus the average offering. Unsurprisingly, Cease's slider, four-seamer, and curveball typically generate above-average levels of vertical movement, supporting high whiff rates.

The Argument for Gray

Though it's unfair to Gray, he sometimes feels like the definition of a skilled and somewhat boring starting pitcher. After finding success with the Twins for two seasons in 2022 (3.08 ERA, 16 percent K-BB rate, 125 BPX) and 2023 (2.79 ERA, 16 percent K-BB rate, 132 BPX), Gray made gains in 2024. After an xERA of 3.65 (2022) and 3.70 (2023), Gray's 2.83 xERA in 2024 sits below his actual (3.01) for the first time since 2021 with the Reds.

Gray's strikeout rate ballooned to a career-high, with the swinging strike rate following suit, evidenced by a career-best 13 percent. His slider (24.1 percent) and curveball (10.4) look similar to the career averages in swinging strike rate. However, Gray's cutter (15.2 percent) and changeup (11.3 percent) increased by about two percentage points from his career norm.

Part of the improvements on the cutter involves him using it more often against right-handed hitters. That's evident in the cutter usage of 26 percent in 2024, up from 18.2 percent in 2023. The results improved against right-handed hitters, given the .166 wOBA in 2024 and .271 wOBA in 2023. It's likely a mix of luck and Gray locating the cutter better since the movement profile hasn't shifted much.

Interestingly, Gray's changeup usage remained the same compared to 2023, around 13.5 percent versus lefties. The luck factors and movement profile look similar, so the slight shift in results and swinging strike rate against left-handed hitters may be fluky.

 

Verdict of Cease vs. Gray

Cease possesses more strikeout upside than Gray, though Gray's balance of control with the peak swinging strike rate suggests the skills support the gains in 2024. Fantasy managers can't go wrong with either, and Cease probably warrants more name value than Gray. Since both have above-average to near-elite skills in several areas, Cease will be the better option in season-long rotisserie leagues, with Gray having more per-inning value based on each of their health track records.

 

Cole Ragans vs. Grayson Rodriguez

The Argument for Ragans

Ragans lit up the fantasy world toward the end of last season and continued that success into 2024. Most skill metrics look similar or better, with a 21.7 percent strikeout minus walk rate with the Royals (2023) to 22.5 percent (2024). The same goes for his swinging strike rate, evidenced by his 15 percent with the Royals in 2023 and 14.4 percent in 2024.

Ragans' changeup has been deadly, with a 25 percent swinging strike rate, four points above his career average. That's especially true against right-handed hitters, with a .249 wOBA, though the numbers regressed slightly from 2023 (.197 wOBA). Meanwhile, the slider took a slight step back, given the 14.6 percent swinging strike rate in 2024 compared to 25.5 percent in 2023. Hitters haven't been chasing the slider as much in 2024, dropping over 16 percentage points to 32.6 percent.

Ragans increased the four-seamer (53 percent) and slider (35.4 percent) by 8-9 percentage points to left-handed hitters. It might be sample size noise from 2023 to 2024, and same-handed hitters may have adjusted to the slider thrown more often. The slider pitch shape hasn't changed much from 2023, so it's likely a matter of the location of the breaking ball. That's evident in the visual below.

Ragans continued to throw the slider 50-53 percent of the time down and away to left-handed hitters. However, when Ragans threw the slider low in the zone, hitters crushed it, evidenced by the .414 wOBA in 2024 compared to a .218 wOBA. That's odd because the slider zone rate fell from 41.8 percent (2023) to 36.1 percent (2024). It looks like something fixable for Ragans, so expect some adjustments on the slider location.

The Argument for Rodriguez

Rodriguez is living up to the prospect hype in 2024, though the 3.84 xERA in 2024 hints at regression, given the actual ERA of 3.27. Interestingly, Rodriguez had a nearly identical xERA in 2023 (3.89). That likely means most of his skills remained similar, with luck factors shifting in his favor in 2024. The strikeout minus walk rate (18 percent) hovers near the 2023 numbers, but the swinging strike rate increased by over one percentage point to a near-elite range of 14 percent.

Rodriguez's main change came via ditching the sweeper for a traditional slider. He replaced the sweeper for the slider with similar usage, or it might be a pitch classification change on Baseball Savant.

It could be a mixture of the sweeper and the old slider since the 2024 slider drops 34 inches and breaks over five inches. Last season, Rodriguez's sweeper moved vertically 36.7 inches like the current slider, yet over six inches of sweep as expected.

Rodriguez's slider (18.2 percent) and changeup (18.8 percent) have a nearly identical swinging strike rate, leading his arsenal from a whiff standpoint. Interestingly, Rodriguez's slider and changeup have worse batted-ball results than expected.

Against right-handed hitters, his slider allows a .352 wOBA with the changeup's .167 wOBA. Right-handed hitters rock the four-seamer, given the .412 wOBA. His four-seamer has an average induced vertical break (16.4 inches), yet possesses tons of arm-side run, which should lead to weaker contact. That gives him one relatively effective pitch against same-handed hitters.

Meanwhile, the changeup allows a .361 wOBA versus left-handed hitters, with the four-seamer having the best results (.228 wOBA) among the pitches he throws most often (four-seam, changeup, and curveball). That suggests the swinging strike rates on the slider and changeup may dip closer to the 2023 numbers around 15 percent, which is still serviceable.

 

Verdict of Ragans vs. Rodriguez

The overall profile comparison makes it an easier selection of Ragans based on the strikeout skills from a floor and ceiling standpoint. From a pitch-level stuff comparison, Ragans edges Rodriguez. The key to unlocking a small step forward for Rodriguez might involve lowering the four-seamer usage while using more sliders and changeups. It's within the range of outcomes for Rodriguez to take another step forward in the latter half of 2024 and into the following season. However, Ragans checks more of the skill and arsenal boxes than Rodriguez.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Tyler Soderstrom

Returns to A's Lineup
Tyler Warren

Sidelined on Wednesday with Toe Injury
Jaylen Waddle

Questionable for Week 3 Against Buffalo
Joe Burrow

Bengals Not Closing the Door on Joe Burrow Returning This Year
CFB

LaNorris Sellers to Play Against Missouri?
Kyle Tucker

Progress has "Plateaued"
Isaac Paredes

has "Outside Chance" to Return This Weekend
CFB

Kaidon Salter Expected To Start for Colorado on Saturday
Willson Contreras

Goes on 10-Day Injured List, Done for Season
Justin Fields

Ruled Out for Week 3 Due to Concussion
Jayden Reed

Out Indefinitely After Foot and Shoulder Surgery
Washington Commanders

Preston Smith Signs With Commanders
Trey Jemison III

Joins Knicks on Two-Way Contract
Kevin McCullar Jr.

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Knicks
Matt Ryan

Returns to Knicks on Exhibit 10 Contract
New York Knicks

Alex Len Signs Exhibit 9 Deal With Knicks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Expected to Take on Larger Offensive Role With Hawks
Thomas Sorber

Undergoes Surgery
Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
Jayden Reed

Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
Bo Bichette

to Miss Rest of Regular Season
Zach Neto

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
CFB

Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
CFB

Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
CFB

Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Garrett Crochet

Punches Out 12 in Win
Cole Ragans

to Return on Wednesday
George Kirby

Strikes Out 14 in Win
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP