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Scott Engel's 2026 fantasy baseball SP sleepers, draft values and targets for 2026 drafts. He recommends targeting these starting pitcher sleepers as upside picks.
The “big three” in fantasy baseball this season at starting pitcher are Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, and Paul Skenes. In mixed league snake drafts, all three might go off the board in the first round, and there will be spirited bidding for every one of them in salary cap formats.
But some fantasy baseball analysts and players choose to wait longer to target their starting pitchers, citing frequent injury concerns overall and the propensity of some less heralded starters to emerge each year. Many listeners of RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio have heard Real Talk Raph, a notorious Mets-hater, who'd rather buy a Juan Soto jersey than draft a starting pitcher in the first round.
No matter whether you simply look to fill out your starting pitching staff in the middle to later rounds, or choose to begin building at those points, we have targeted some fantasy baseball sleepers and value plays for 2026. You’ll find everything from a good pitcher with an ADP in the 150s to a deep sleeper type at 400. All ADP referenced is from NFBC drafts as of February 1.
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Cody Ponce, Toronto Blue Jays
ADP: 291
Ponce is back in MLB after three years in Japan and one season in the KBO. He joins the American League Champions as a possible upside performer at the back end of the rotation to start out in 2026. Ponce is 31, but he is coming off an MVP season in the KBO last year.
In 2025, Ponce’s K% leaped to a career-best 36.2%, way up from his overall career mark of 19.6%. The WHIP shrank to 0.94 from the career mark of 1.51. The ERA also stood out at 1.89 (career 5.86) with an xFIP of 2.30.
Cody Ponce set a KBO record with 18 Ks in a single game 🤯
The previous owner of that record?
Teammate Hyun Jin Ryu 🫡 pic.twitter.com/Ep7QMmgw5h
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) December 11, 2025
Previously viewed as a journeyman type, Ponce said he found enjoyment in baseball again in South Korea, according to MLB.com. He developed a kick change and added more velocity on his four-seam fastball.
We will have to see if the KBO success translates to MLB, but Ponce is on a team with the fourth-best odds to win the World Series, and he can now be in the same part of the locker room as established starters to learn more from.
Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles
ADP: 171
It took until his sixth season to happen, but Rogers finally came through with a breakout campaign in 2025. There could be some regression after he posted a sparkling 1.81 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP. The ex-Marlin may not be quite as dominant as he often looked last season, as evidenced by his 3.64 ERA and .226 BABIP.
Last year, Rogers added a sweeper to his arsenal, giving him a five-pitch mix. His four-seamer usage increased from 31.7% to 40.7%, and he was more effective with it, limiting opposing hitters to a .158 average a season after he posted a .250 Batting Average Against in 2024.
Rogers registered a 24.3 K%, which was his highest in four years. He earned the ace role in the Baltimore rotation, and even if his ERA normalizes and he doesn't function as an outstanding strikeout pitcher, Rogers can be a quality value play for where he is being drafted.
Braxton Ashcraft, Pittsburgh Pirates
ADP: 280
Late last season, Ashcraft transitioned into a starting role and is now ticketed to open the season in the Pirates’ rotation. He posted ERAs below 3.15 as a starter in August and September, while striking out 48 batters in just over 40 innings of work. Ashcraft has also displayed significant strikeout promise as a minor leaguer.
To truly break out in 2026, Ashcraft must harness his control, as he had BB% numbers of over 8.0 at the major and minor league levels last season. He finished with a 2.71 ERA with Pittsburgh last season and had a 3.54 xFIP.
Braxton Ashcraft is healthy, so look out!
The shoulder surgery, Tommy John surgery, and forearm tightness are behind Ashcraft, and this offseason he has been able to focus less on getting healthy and more on finding consistency and developing his pitches.
After throwing 69.2… pic.twitter.com/tr12FXbh92
— 𝐍𝐒𝟗 (@NorthShoreNine) February 3, 2026
Opposing batters also hit .323 against his four-seamer at the MLB level. There is definite upside and opportunity for Ashcraft, which makes him a viable target for where he is drafted.
Spencer Arrighetti, Houston Astros
ADP: 491
After flashing his strikeout promise as a rookie in 2024, Arrighetti’s 2025 campaign was ruined by injuries. But he is reportedly going to be ready to compete for a spot in the Houston rotation, and if Arrighetti regains his better strikeout form and improves his control, he could prove to be quite the value play in 2026.
In 2024, Arrighetti registered a 27.1 K% in 28 starts, but the 10.3 BB % was certainly a concern. Last season, he made just seven forgettable MLB starts and finished with a 5.35 ERA and 5.54 WHIP. The xFIP was at 4.18 in 2024.
Given where he is being drafted, Arrighetti might be a very good late pick, as he hopefully picks up where he left off in 2024.
Zebby Matthews, Minnesota Twins
ADP: 307
Matthews could win a spot in the Minnesota rotation if his minor league potential blossoms into consistent effectiveness at the MLB level. In 16 starts last season, he posted a 5.56 ERA, but a 3.81 xFIP and .357 BABIP point to better times ahead in 2026. The 24.9 K% was encouraging, and the minor league stats indicate that Matthews can transform into a quality fantasy starter at any time.
In 17 minor league starts (18 games played) in 2024, Matthews finished with a 2.60 ERA, and the xFIP was even better at 2.45. The K% was at a formidable 30.5. We should also see a much better number than the major league 1.49 WHIP from last season.
Troy Melton, Detroit Tigers
ADP: 387
As Melton worked as both a reliever and a starter last season, he posted a 2.76 ERA, but the 4.53 xFIP and 86.0% strand rate raised some skepticism. Melton started to look better in his final three postseason starts, as he allowed one run with eight strikeouts in eight innings pitched on the bigger stage.
Based on his minor league performances and a brief glimpse of more hope in the playoffs, Melton will get a chance to nail down a spot in the Detroit rotation in spring training. At three minor league levels in 2024 and 2025, he registered a 27.0-plus K% at every stop. Overall in the minors in 2025, he delivered a 2.99 ERA and a 2.64 WHIP.
Like a few other pitchers in this article, Melton might be ready to raise his performance to another level in 2026. Even if he were to begin the season in a long relief role, he would be the first name called to fill a spot in the rotation following an injury.
Ryan Weathers, New York Yankees
ADP: 273
An exciting season may lie ahead for Weathers, as his father, David, was a long-tenured reliever who won a championship with the Yankees in 1996. He is geared up to pitch in New York, and the Yanks need him to help plug some injury holes in their rotation. But Weathers also has to show that he can stay healthy, too.
"There's so much knowledge between those three... especially Fried and Rodón being lefties, Fried's really helping me with my breaking ball right now" @NikiLattarulo asks Ryan Weathers what he can learn from Max Fried, Carlos Rodón and Gerrit Cole: pic.twitter.com/CrRo5jPivp
— Yankees Videos (@snyyankees) February 15, 2026
Over the past two seasons, Weathers has dealt with finger, forearm, and lat issues, but New York still elected to acquire him from Miami. Weathers will be working in a consistently electric environment after leaving the small crowds and tepid support of his former team. While we always emphasize advanced stats, I believe intangibles can indeed play a role in a player’s outlook. This could be a very good change of scenery for Weathers.
Two seasons ago with Miami, Weathers posted a 3.63 ERA in 16 starts. He is already acclimating to the new environment, telling the media that he is getting good tips from fellow left-handers Max Fried and Carlos Rodon. He said Fried is helping him refine his breaking ball, and Weathers was throwing hard in camp in mid-February.
Weathers’ major league numbers have not yet fully reflected his talents, but this could be the year where he starts tapping into his considerable potential. He features high-velocity stuff and is still honing his other top pitches, which include a sweeper and changeup. Over the past two seasons, opposing batters have hit .174 and .115 vs. the sweeper.
Robby Snelling, Miami Marlins
ADP: 325
While a pitcher looking to possibly bask in the spotlight like Weathers could benefit by playing in a more competitive environment than Miami, Snelling might be able to perform comfortably in South Florida without much fanfare. It is now time for the Marlins’ No. 4 prospect to leave the minors behind and show he can effectively compete regularly at the MLB level.
Last year, Snelling posted a 2.51 ERA in 25 starts at Double-A and Triple-A. In 11 starts at Triple-A, he won six of eight decisions with a 1.27 ERA, and he struck out 81 batters in 63.2 innings pitched. Snelling has a potent arsenal that includes a four-seamer, changeup, and sweeper. While wins may not be easy to come by with the Marlins, Snelling should be ready to take on major league hitters and could be a fine pick at his current ADP.
Currently, he is projected to open the season as the team's No. 6 starter and may begin the campaign at Triple-A. However, he is a worthy stash option, as he may not have to wait long before earning the call to Miami.
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