RADIO
Andy Smith's 2026 fantasy baseball pitcher breakouts to target in drafts. His favorite undervalued starting pitchers and fantasy baseball sleepers to break out.
Identifying breakouts is the key to securing a fantasy championship. Last season, managers who bet on the talents of Garrett Crochet and Hunter Brown secured high-end starting pitchers that greatly outperformed their preseason ADP.
Last week, we did a deep dive into my hitter fantasy baseball breakouts, and now it's time to turn our attention to the mound. In this piece, I will spotlight my six must-draft breakout starting pitchers who will not only provide value at their ADP but have the upside to become high-end assets. All ADP referenced is from NFBC drafts as of February 15.
Be sure to follow RotoBallerMLB on X for all of our league-winning content and me, @A_Smith_FS, for any questions! Additionally, be sure to use code SMITH at checkout for 30% off on all premium packages. Let's dive in!
Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:- BvP matchups data (Batter vs. Pitcher)
- PvB matchups data (Pitcher vs. Batter)
- Who should I start? Fantasy baseball comparisons
- Who should I pickup? Fantasy baseball comparisons
- Fantasy baseball trade analyzer
- MLB Props finder tool
- Fantasy baseball closer depth charts
Emmet Sheehan, Los Angeles Dodgers
ADP - 133.5
Emmet Sheehan missed the entire 2024 season while he was sidelined from a hybrid Tommy John surgery. In 2025, the right-hander returned and looked nothing short of dominant. Across 73 1/3 innings, the right-hander logged a 2.82 ERA with a 0.97 WHIP. During this stretch, he posted an elite 30.6% K% (90th percentile) while showing above-average command with a 7.6% BB%.
Under the hood, Sheehan's initial breakout looked even more impressive and opens the door for a massive 2026 season.
Among pitchers who have logged at least 50 innings (as an SP) last season, the 26-year-old placed seventh among all starters in K-BB% (25.7%). He sits in some pretty impressive company, as Cy Young contenders such as Chris Sale, Logan Gilbert, Cole Ragans, and Tarik Skubal all sit above him. This statistic is a great way to identify how effective a pitcher truly is.
If he is totaling strikeouts at a high rate (great for fantasy) and avoiding high counts, Sheehan is consistently putting himself in great positions to succeed.
Additionally, his 3.01 xFIP (expected Fielder Independent Pitching) placed him tied for eighth among starters, and his SIERA (Skill Interactive ERA) of 2.95 also placed him eighth among all starting pitchers.
If that wasn't enough to impress, Sheehan also has two elite breaking balls, which help offset his rather mediocre fastball. Last season, his fastball generated a modest .348 xwOBA with a 26.5% whiff rate. However, his No. 2 and No. 3 pitches (slider and changeup) were elite.
His slider (deployed 30.4% of the time) boasted a 43.6% whiff rate with a .200 xwOBA. His changeup (16.7% used) had a 30.2% whiff rate with a similar .205 xwOBA. In September, Sheehan began to lean even more on his slider, and the results were impressive.
Through 25 1/3 innings that month, Sheehan logged a 1.42 ERA, a 0.67 WHIP, 35 punchouts, and only six walks. This was a stark drop from the 3.68 ERA and 1.16 WHIP he held in July and August.
While he does have some workload concerns, given that he has yet to log over 100 innings in a season, the raw talent is off the charts. With Blake Snell (shoulder) already returning towards missing Opening Day and several other starters in the rotation having a lengthy track record of injuries, Sheehan appears to be penciled into a starting role all season.
He is a prime mid-round target at his current ADP with massive upside.
Chase Burns, Cincinnati Reds
ADP - 114.7
Let's move up a handful of rounds to discuss the former No. 2 overall pick. The Tennessee/Wake Forest product made his MLB debut just a year after he was drafted, but did not have the best results on the surface.
Through 43 1/3 innings, Burns held a modest 4.57 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP, which is likely why his ADP remains quite affordable. However, during this stint, the flamethrower racked up 67 punchouts (35.6% K%) but had most command, with an 8.5% BB%.
In the minor leagues, Burns has showcased elite command, which is why his modest command in his MLB debut does not raise many red flags. He began the 2025 season with High-A and quickly reached Triple-A by May. Across 66 total innings (High-A through Triple-A), the right-hander held a 1.77 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, with an incredible 89:13 K:BB.
In his first stint in the majors, his underlying metrics suggest a similar outcome is possible with a full offseason under his belt.
Burns generated a strong 3.48 xERA and a .218 xBA, both of which would have placed him well above the average marks if he logged enough innings to qualify. Both metrics also suggest he should see significant positive regression in Year 2.
He generated an elite 2.68 xFIP, which placed him alongside Skubal's 2.66 xFIP. While the small sizes are significantly different, this is the type of upside we could see from Burns. Don't let his face value 4.57 ERA steer you away on draft day.
Burns has primarily been a two-pitch pitcher, and his stint in the majors was no different. Burns deployed his four-seamer 57.9% of the time and deployed his slider 33.8% of the time while occasionally mixing in his changeup at 5.6%.
His fastball posted a .320 xwOBA but allowed loud contact, as evidenced by the 50.8% hard-hit rate. However, his slider could develop into one of the game's most elite whiff pitches as it posted an incredible 42.9% whiff rate in its first taste last season. Earlier this offseason, Burns had already expressed the need to add a third pitch and said he would work his changeup more often.
From earlier this week, my discussion with Reds pitcher Chase Burns about adding a third pitch to his arsenal. And Burns' breakdown of why he added a changeup.
We'll see the new pitch in action on Saturday as Burns is expected to start the Reds Spring Training opener. pic.twitter.com/jZg05e8JuM
— Yanni Tragellis (@yannitragellis) February 20, 2026
His changeup showed promise in its limited usage, posting a 33.3% whiff rate and .295 xwOBA. If Burns can add a third pitch, we could be looking at a dark horse for the NL strikeout crown.
Eury Perez, Miami Marlins
ADP - 91.7
The player with the earliest ADP on this list is Eury Perez of the Miami Marlins. Perez had a delayed start to the 2025 season as he worked his way back from Tommy John surgery. He returned to the MLB bump in early June but stumbled through some growing pains in his first few starts.
In his first 16 innings post-injury, Perez logged a hefty 6.19 ERA with a modest 14:10 K:BB. However, as the season progressed, Perez began to show the similar upside he flashed as a rookie back in 2023. Over his final 79 1/3 innings, the right-hander held a 3.86 ERA with a dominant 0.96 WHIP. He struck out 91 hitters and walked only 22.
Additionally, during this stretch, Perez had three blow-up starts (where he allowed five or more runs). Removing those three outings, Perez would have posted an elite 2.21 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, and an 88:17 K:BB over 69 1/3 innings.
Overall, he placed in the 83rd and 88th percentile in xERA (3.23) and xBA (.203), suggesting that many of those blow-ups should result in significant positive regression in 2026.
In 2025, Perez was primarily a two-pitch pitcher, throwing his fastball and slider 74.3% of the time, with his four-seamer leading the way at 51.3% usage. However, as the season went on, Perez began to rely on his slider and reduced his four-seamer usage, as shown below.
Over his last four starts in September (excluding his seven-run explosion on September 3), the right-hander posted a 2.70 ERA with a 33:4 K:BB over 20 innings.
His No. 4 pitch (his changeup) stood out as he posted a 61.1% whiff rate with a 0.68 xwOBA (7.8% usage). If Perez can round out with a reliable No. 3 pitch, he may not only endure some of the expected positive regression but also emerge as a top-10 pitcher for fantasy.
Joey Cantillo, Cleveland Guardians
ADP - 288.5
Let's switch gears and head to the final rounds of the draft for our next breakout. The left-hander bounced between the rotation and the bullpen for the Guardians last season, but finished his season with a solid 3.21 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP across 95 1/3 innings. He struck out 108 hitters (26.9% K%), but his upside was limited due to his hefty 10.5% BB%.
From July 1 onward, Cantillo was deployed only as a starter and looked quite comfortable in this role, posting a 2.96 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. However, he made the list due to his near-perfect finish to the season. In September, the southpaw logged 29 innings with a stellar 1.55 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP. During this stretch, his 1.9 BB/9 was much lower than the 5.2 BB/9 he averaged in July and August.
In September, Cantillo made a slight tweak to his arm by leaning on his changeup more often and dropping his curveball.
In this stint, his changeup led the way, posting an elite .137 xwOBA (lowest of a single month) with an eye-catching 44.6% whiff rate.
If the left-hander can continue to improve his command, he should be in a prime position to extend his late-season surge in 2026. Cantillo should be penciled into the rotation to open the season, but will have to enjoy a hot start as top prospect Parker Messick is waiting in the wings.
At his price, you will not find pitchers with as much upside as Cantillo showed at the end of 2025.
Jacob Misiorowski, Milwaukee Brewers
ADP - 129.7
Misiorowski logged only 66 innings in the majors in 2025, but, like Burns, was far more productive than his face-value stats suggest. The right-hander held a modest 4.36 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP. Over the first 33 1/3 innings, the right-hander held a dominant 2.70 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP. However, following a stint on the IL with a left tibia contusion, Misiorowski did not find the same success late in the season.
In his last 32 2/3 innings, the 23-year-old held a much higher 6.06 ERA with a 1.53 WHIP. However, his metrics suggest we should see the first version of Misiorowski in 2026, more than his late-season counterpart.
He posted a 77th percentile 3.41 xERA and an elite .202 xBA (89th percentile), both well above average. Despite having a high 10.8% walk rate, Misiorowski placed 15th among astartes in K-BB% (among those who logged at least 60 innings) with a 21.5% K-BB%.
His 3.56 xFIP is right in line with his xERA, suggesting that he should see prominent positive regression in his first full season. Additionally, his SIERA (3.45) placed him 22nd among starting pitchers in this range, sitting alongside some great company in Brown (3.39 SIERA) and Jesus Luzardo (3.40 SIERA).
What makes Misiorowski's breakout campaign even more plausible is that he possesses a dominant fastball. This pitch (55.2% usage) generated a .298 xwOBA with a 32.3% whiff rate while sitting at 99.3 mph. This will be the driving force in Year 2.
Jacob Misiorowski's first career strikeout victim is Willson Contreras. pic.twitter.com/EcEaEkSF6p
— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) June 12, 2025
His No. 2 pitch (his slider, 24.3% usage) was not as effective but should see some positive regression (.534 SLG - .435 xSLG). While his uneven command may hurt your WHIP, Misiorowski has elite strikeout skills and should sit near the mid-3.00s in ERA, as numerous ERA indicators suggest, while posting top-tier strikeout totals.
Bubba Chandler, Pittsburgh Pirates
ADP - 155.4
Bubba Chandler was projected to be in contention for his MLB debut early in the 2025 season. However, after some persistent command issues at Triple-A, the Pirates would not call his name until late August.
Chandler was deployed out of the bullpen in his first three outings before moving to a starting role over his last four. While his first start ended with a nine-run showing over 2 2/3 innings, Chandler quickly rounded into form over his last three. During these 16 2/3 innings, Chander struck out 19 hitters while allowing no walks, with a 1.08 ERA and a 0.42 WHIP.
While his command was an issue at Triple-A (12.0% BB%), he flipped the script in the majors, posting a much lower 3.2% BB%. Even though his sample size in the majors was limited, the young right-hander generated a strong 2.66 FIP (3.20 xFIP), suggesting that his base 4.02 ERA is due for some significant positive regression.
His fastball was not overly effective (.405 xwOBA), but per the FanGraphs scouting report, this is one of the most elite pitches, as evidenced by its 70 current and 70 futures grade.
However, his changeup and slider did much of the heavy lifting in his first stint, generating 39.6% and 23.1% whiff rates, respectively, with .150 and .160 xwOBA.
If Chander can better command his fastball, he has a clear path to a massive breakout campaign. His secondaries were already very effective, and his fastball has the raw talent to develop into an ace-level No. 1 pitch.
More Fantasy Baseball Advice
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!
