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Kevin looks at fantasy baseball breakouts and sleepers candidates. These veteran pitchers are reinventing themselves with a changed pitch mix. Who's for real?
After Week 1 of the fantasy baseball season, we're starting to see some strong starts out of veteran pitchers. Some we should certainly expect given their career trajectories (Nathan Eovaldi), but some also may be a bit more of a shock (Martin Perez).
But it's not just about these pitchers returning to dominance in a familiar way. They've reinvented themselves and are getting better results because of it. Whether it's simply pitch mix or a new weapon in their arsenal, it's led to success here in the early days of the season.
So, let's take a deeper dive into a few intriguing options and see how they're reinventing themselves, the results it has led to, and whether it's sustainable or not moving forward. We'll start in Cincinnati where they are certainly singing their praises to a newly acquired starter.
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Brady Singer, Cincinnati Reds
2025 Stats: 2.25 ERA, 30.6 percent K%, 1.34 FIP, 2.99 xFIP
Singer was traded away by the Royals to the Reds in the offseason and came in as a fairly successful starter, mainly reliant on pitching to contact and getting deep into ballgames that way.
He had shown a propensity to rack up strikeouts now and then, but it was never fully his strong suit. Instead, he had used his sinker to get a high rate of ground-ball outs. But so far this season, that's all changed as he's rocking a K% above 30 percent and has only a 35 percent GB%. Not quite the profile we're used to seeing from Singer, but it's been effective.
Much of this is being driven by a rather big change in his pitch mix. While still reliant on his sinker as his main pitch (41.6 percent in 2024 and 38.3 percent in 2025), he's added a cutter to his repertoire and has discarded his sweeper and changeup.
To showcase how big of a change this is for Singer, he's throwing his cutter 16.4 percent of the time after throwing it just once in 2024. He's decreased his slider usage (40.3 percent to 31.7 percent) and is mixing in his four-seamer on 13.1 percent of pitches. Singer spoke about his focus on his cutter, among other things, during an interview in spring training below:
"A little bit shocked, but excited to be here."
Brady Singer joins @markdero7 to talk about being traded to the @Reds, his new cutter and more.
MLB Network + @TMobile pic.twitter.com/1FrPe5EqGM
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) March 12, 2025
So far, the mix is confusing hitters, and his K% is up 8.3 percent on the young season. The cutter has yet to yield a strikeout, but its increased usage is certainly playing off his best strikeout pitch, his slider. That accounted for seven of his 15 K on the season, tracking with his 2024 numbers where the slider and sinker were his top putaway pitches.
Singer's pitches don't grade out incredibly well by Stuff+, with only his four-seam fastball coming in above league average. By expected stats, all say that Singer should see positive regression on all his pitches besides his newly added cutter (.263 wOBA vs. .372 xwOBA). However, the small sample size needs to be considered against his career norms.
One of the biggest worries for Singer's future value is his large drop in GB% (47.1 percent to 35.5 percent) that correlates with an increase in FB% (29.1 percent to 41.9 percent). It's not as if that batted ball profile can't work at Great American Ball Park.
It profiles pretty similarly to Hunter Greene's 2024 results. But we need to consider that Greene's stuff generally grades much higher than Singer's pitches do. At some point, we should expect Singer to regress closer to a better version of his norms. The change in pitch mix has added another dynamic to his starts, but it's more than likely that he's simply overachieved against two underwhelming offenses in Texas (72 wRC+) and Milwaukee (85 wRC+).
Consider Singer a "hold" as of now. With the expectation that he'll regress, you shouldn't expect the same type of production he's getting. However, it's fair enough to expect him to be a better version of who he was as a Royal, especially if he can start to get more ground balls.
Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers
2025 Stats: 2.29 ERA, 28.8 percent K%, 2.21 FIP, 2.22 xFIP
A key reason the Rangers are off to a solid start this season is that Nathan Eovaldi has revamped his pitch mix and is performing at dominant levels to start 2025.
With a 2.29 ERA, 2.21 FIP, and 2.22 xFIP, it's easy for us to see that the results he's getting are fairly true. His tweaks are helping him achieve the highest K% of his career, and it's also leading to an incredibly high GB%, making easy outs look effortless to get while he's on the mound.
Our Thunder Dan Palyo broke down some of Eovaldi's changes on X, which you can read here, but we'll continue to show just how he's doing it in this article.
Nathan Eovaldi, Nasty Splitters. 😨 pic.twitter.com/EDFZ80XOYT
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 8, 2025
For starters, Eovaldi still is relying on his four-seamer and hit splitter as his two most-used pitches. But it's his curveball that's seen increased usage to start this season that's giving him an edge. Last season, he threw his curve just 13.7 percent of the time, and that's bumped up to 23.8 percent in 2025.
Hitters have not fared well against it, to say the least, as they hold just a .067 BA against it and are whiffing a remarkable 51.5 percent of the time when Eovaldi throws it. Unsurprisingly, it's his top putaway pitch that has resulted in nine of his 21 K.
Because the 35-year-old is relying on it more, his four-seamer has dropped from a 37.4 percent usage to 30.0 percent, the biggest difference in his pitch mix. Given the results, it's been a smart change for the vet.
Though it's his strongest pitch this season, Eovaldi's curve doesn't grade out extraordinary by movement. Rather, it appears to be slightly below league average in both vertical and horizontal movement. He grades out very well by vertical movement in his cutter and splitter, but his four-seamer has very little vertical movement compared to the league average.
That changes with the amount of armside run his four-seamer gets, though, as it moves a ton more than the average four-seam fastball. That's pretty standard for Eovaldi, though, as he had similar results in 2024. Stuff+ tells us what we already know about his curveball, which is that it's his best pitch and grades at a 108.
By expected stats, there's one clear weakness with Eovaldi. That would be his four-seam fastball, which has a .288 wOBA and a .548 xwOBA. The actual results he's getting off the pitch are really good, but that's a huge gap pointing toward quite a bit of negative regression on the pitch.
It's a small sample size, but we don't want to see that wide of a gap on his most-used pitch. His xERA currently sits at 3.91, backing the idea that negative regression could be coming for the vet soon if he makes mistakes with his four-seamer. But even if he does increase to a 3.91 ERA, that's still fairly respectable and will drive home some fantasy value for fantasy managers.
Though negative regression will be coming, Eovaldi should be considered a "buy" at this time. His biggest fantasy impact will come in the form of strikeouts. With his K% trending higher than his norms, but not to an abnormal amount, he should still be able to rack up the strikeouts even if hitters start to punish his fastball more.
As long as that curveball keeps being used effectively, and he keeps getting grounders at a significant rate, he should be valuable in all leagues.
Martin Perez, Chicago White Sox
2025 Stats: 2.25 ERA, 30.6 percent K%, 1.34 FIP, 2.99 xFIP
With another sinker/cutter combo similar to Singer, Martin Perez has started off his 2025 season unexpectedly on fire. Six innings of no-hit ball followed by six more innings of one-run ball has Perez looking like he may reincarnate his 2022 season with the Rangers (2.89 ERA, 1.258 WHIP).
An early bright spot for an underwhelming White Sox team, Perez has at least given light to some Chicago fans that he can be a bright spot on their roster. But can he continue to provide value to Sox fans and fantasy managers with the changes in his pitch mix?
Martín Pérez became the first pitcher in recorded history to deliver six or more hitless innings with nine or more strikeouts, all without once eclipsing the 90 mph mark.
A pitching masterclass for the ages! pic.twitter.com/WzmR04065T
— Pitch Profiler (@pitchprofiler) March 31, 2025
Perez has simplified his pitch mix early on by reducing it to three main pitches: cutter, sinker, and changeup. The main pitch he's no longer using as prominently is his curveball, which he now features just 6.9 percent of the time.
None of his pitches have resulted in a batting average above .200, which is certainly something you need to see from a pitcher who doesn't throw above 90 mph. Similar to Singer, yet again, his GB% has seen a sharp drop, while his FB% has seen a sharp rise. But with a hard-hit percentage of just 29.6 percent, it's not resulting in hard contact yet.
Perez's pitches generally grade low in terms of vertical movement, though his cutter grades above league average. With horizontal movement, his cutter grades below league average, though his changeup and sinker grades are above league average.
In terms of Stuff+, his sinker and cutter grade league average early on. None of this is too surprising, given the southpaw doesn't throw with much velocity, meaning he'll need to rely on location and craftiness to fool hitters consistently.
When we evaluate his expected stats, this is where the concern starts to show. His 0.73 ERA is buoyed by a 3.47 xERA. That xERA number isn't all that worrisome, but the jump from 0.73 to 3.47 shows plenty of negative regression coming as he'll settle in closer to the mean. We see similar signs on all of the expected stats for his pitches; none of them have an xwOBA that's lower than the current wOBA.
One pitch that may continue to stay very successful for the 34-year-old is his changeup. Last season, he saw a 34.1 percent whiff rate, and that's increased to 47.4 percent in his two starts.
It's coming in about 2 mph slower than last season, likely leading hitters to be out in front of the ball even more than normal. Its xwOBA at .192 isn't likely to stay that low, but it's his most effective pitch. If he can avoid danger with his cutter and sinker, the changeup will continue to be successful.
Ultimately, we are looking at a major negative regression candidate here. Perez needs to induce more ground balls to balance out the expected jump in xwOBA and wOBA his pitch mix is likely to see.
If not, those soft fly balls he's currently getting are going to turn into barrels that will do loads more damage. If fantasy managers are looking for an early "sell high" candidate, Perez would be a great one to dangle in front of anyone willing to bite.
Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies
2025 Stats: 2.13 ERA, 20.4 percent K%, 1.51 FIP, 2.64 xFIP
One of the Rockies' longest-tenured players, Kyle Freeland, has started 2025 looking reinvigorated. Though never a huge strikeout guy, he's seen a slight bump in his K% and a huge increase in his GB% thanks to the addition of a new pitch to his repertoire, a sweeper. It's helped him look like he's regaining his 2018 form when he finished fourth in the NL Cy Young race.
Kyle Freeland: 83 mph filth vs. Bryce Harper pic.twitter.com/XuXgs659lJ
— Christian Saez🎙 (@DNVRSaez) April 2, 2025
The southpaw still relies on his sinker as his most-used pitch, with a 28.7 percent usage. The sweeper, a brand-new pitch this season, comes in second at 26.8 percent. His four-seamer has dropped from 20.4 percent to 15.9 percent, and his cutter has dropped from 22.6 percent to 13.4 percent.
That newly added sweeper also appears to be a new special weapon against lefties, as it's the predominant pitch they will face. Lefties have seen 30 sweepers and no more than six of any other pitches from Freeland. The 31-year-old has always relied on a bit of craftiness to overcome his lack of velocity, and the change in mix has started to fool hitters again.
In terms of movement, Freeland doesn't grade well when it comes to horizontal movement. His brand-new sweeper, however, grades well with vertical movement. Only his curveball grades below league average by vertical movement, but at 12.1 percent usage, it's not the biggest worry for him.
He grades above average in Stuff+ for his fastball, slider, and knuckle curve. Surprisingly, his knuckle curve rates the best at 123, though he only throws in 12.1 percent of the time, as was just mentioned. Early on, he's grading out better than he did in 2024.
By expected stats, Freeland's 2.13 ERA and 2.64 xERA point toward a small amount of negative regression. With a 2.64 xFIP, those numbers ring true.
The big question for Freeland, and fantasy managers looking for value on the waiver wire, will be if he can keep up his high GB% and keep getting weak outs. So far, he's shown he can perform against offenses that are solid against lefties (the Phillies), and he'll have to keep that up.
As with Singer, we'll rate Freeland as a "hold" for now. Look for him on your waiver wire, and don't be too afraid of Coors Field when adding him, though don't count on him to be a fantasy workhorse.
He will eventually have blow-up games, but for the most part, he should be able to make it into the sixth inning consistently and give you a shot at racking up some much-needed fantasy points.
Jesus Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies
2025 Stats: 1.50 ERA, 41.3 percent K%, 1.99 FIP, 2.26 xFIP
It's a bit hard not to overreact to early season stats, but what Jesus Luzardo has done so far in his short time with the Phillies has been very impressive.
The strikeouts are piling up, and the ground balls are softly rolling out whenever he's on the mound, making Phillies fans very excited about their offseason acquisition. As with Freeland, it's been the addition of a sweeper that seems to have excelled Luzardo's performance on the mound.
Last season, Luzardo threw his slider at a 29.3 percent clip. It was one of his most effective pitches and still is, but this season, the usage rate has dropped to 13.2 percent while he's throwing his sweeper 24.2 percent of the time.
His slider is now thrown almost exclusively to righties, while the sweeper is generally a weapon he'll use for left-on-left matchups, though righties will have to face it every so often. The southpaw is still reliant on his four-seamer, which he throws 35.3 percent of the time, but he now has a new toy to help keep hitters off balance.
Jesús Luzardo's 10th and 11th Ks. ✝️🦎 pic.twitter.com/Quom4LYqOk
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 29, 2025
When looking at movement, it's pretty clear that Luzardo doesn't excel with vertical movement, as all of his pitches grade below league average in vertical drop, though none of his pitches are all that far off from league norms. By horizontal movement, he gets a lot of armside run on his four-seamer, coming in well above league average.
Ironically, given their dominance, both his slider and his sweeper grade well below league average in horizontal movement. Pair that with their lack of vertical movement, and it becomes a bit clear that the slider/sweeper combo seems to catch hitters more off guard than anything, whether that is simply due to pitch location or pitch sequencing.
Luzardo's slider graded similarly in 2024 and was still his most dominant pitch, meaning fantasy managers shouldn't buy into the lack of movement all that much. By Stuff+, the slider grades at 124, meaning even with the lack of apparent movement, it's incredibly dominating to hitters.
When we look at his expected stats, there's some negative regression coming, as we've pointed out with each pitcher we've already covered. However, there are positive signs with the gaps that not every other pitcher has shown. Most notably, the gaps between wOBA and xwOBA aren't drastically large, and the xwOBA for his more commonly used pitches come in close to what he did in 2024.
His four-seamer has a .290 wOBA and a .349 xwOBA, showing a similar gap to his 2024 campaign (.328 wOBA, .369 xwOBA). His changeup, which has only been hit once, shows negative regression coming while this season's xwOBA (.329) comes in close to last season's xwOBA (.311).
The slider (.060 xwOBA) and sweeper (.126 xwOBA) both are dominant pitches that likely have some negative regression coming, but last season he posted a .211 xwOBA with his slider, which is still incredibly dominant.
Consider Luzardo to be a strong "buy," given what we're seeing. The addition of the sweeper, and splitting that usage with the slider dependent on a righty/lefty matchup, has added another dynamic to the 27-year-old's game that never got fully unlocked in Miami.
And on a playoff contender like Philadelphia, we can expect he'll bring his A-game throughout the season and provide Philly fans and fantasy managers with plenty of value and joy.
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