Fact or Fiction: Fantasy Football Outlooks for Caleb Williams, Bucky Irving, Keenan Allen, David Moore, Noah Gray

November 27, 2024

Justin's fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 13 of 2024. He looks at surprising performances from Caleb Williams, Bucky Irving, Keenan Allen, David Moore, Noah Gray.

Week 12 of the NFL is behind us, and it's time to look ahead to next week's action. There were some surprising performances in the 12th week of the season, but were those surprising performances a sign of things to come for players?

Every week, I'll examine five NFL players whose numbers from the previous week were better than expected. I'll analyze their games and consider their showings in the larger scheme.

Below, you'll find an analysis of the biggest fantasy football surprises of Week 12. Are those surprising results a fact, i.e., a sign of good things to come, or a fiction, i.e., an anomalous result?

Caleb Williams - QB, Chicago Bears

Week 12 stats: 32-of-47 for 340 yards and two touchdowns, six carries for 33 yards - overall QB4

Chicago Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams has struggled this season, especially since the team's Week 7 bye.

Normally, you'd think the bye week would be good for a rookie QB, a chance for a guy to figure some things out. But in the first four games post-bye, Williams finished QB28, QB28, QB26, and QB21. Just a series of struggles for the first-year passer.

Caleb Williams looked the BEST he's ever looked.

It took a little bit, but the college Caleb has finally arrived in the pros. Thomas Brown is doing an absolutely phenomenal job too.

All 22 QB Breakdown: Caleb Williams pic.twitter.com/YhE5Zhr6pT

— Chase Daniel (@ChaseDaniel) November 27, 2024

But Williams finally got things going in the right direction this week, throwing for 340 yards and two touchdowns in an overtime loss to the Vikings.

It was a strong game, but it came against a Minnesota defense that's struggled against the passing game. There's no guarantee that Williams has another showing like this, especially with a Thanksgiving contest against the Lions on tap for the rookie.

What's more, while Williams had two touchdown throws in this game, it was the first time since October 13 that he even threw for a touchdown. This game was likely a blip on the radar.

Verdict: Fiction

Bucky Irving - RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Week 12 stats: 12 carries for 87 yards and a touchdown, six catches for 64 yards - overall RB3

For the second game in a row, Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving found the end zone. Against the Buccaneers, Irving rushed for a career-high 87 yards and scored his fifth touchdown of his rookie campaign.

Every Bucky Irving touch vs. the New York Giants

12 carries, 87 yards (89 after contact), 1 TD

6 targets, 6 receptions, 64 yards (78 after catch)

59% route rate (up from 36% season average, would be RB9 on season)

9 missed tackles forced on 18 touches

Future All-Pro RB pic.twitter.com/VueY1VuZLX

— Dynasty Zoltan (Bucky Irving Fan Account) (@DynastyZoltanFF) November 25, 2024

While Irving isn't a top-10 running back going forward, I do think this game signals a shift in the Buccaneers backfield. Irving tied with Rachaad White for the team lead in carries but had five more targets and 50 more rushing yards than White. He thoroughly outplayed the presumed No. 1 back for the Bucs.

With Sean Tucker taking a backseat as well, it's fair to consider Irving to be the best back on this Tampa Bay roster right now. Consider him a strong RB2 play going forward.

Verdict: Fact

Keenan Allen - WR, Chicago Bears

Week 12 stats: nine receptions for 86 yards and one touchdown - overall WR8

It's been a rough year for veteran wide receiver Keenan Allen. After crossing the 1,000-yard mark last season with the Chargers, Allen has struggled in his new digs, averaging a career-low 40.9 receiving yards per game.

Keenan Allen Weeks 1-9
-42 tgts, 21 rec
-197 yards, 2 TD

Weeks 10-12
-29 tgt, 18 rec
-171 yards, 1 TD

Bears need to use Allen moving forward.
pic.twitter.com/RtMJyh5S1u

— Just Another Year Chicago: Bears (@JAYChi_Bears) November 26, 2024

Allen finished as the overall WR8 this week, marking just his second time this season finishing better than WR42. That's right -- Allen has finished as a fantasy WR3 or better just twice all year.

And Allen's Week 12 showing came in what was a very, very appealing matchup for the Bears offense, so it's unlikely to be a sign of things to come for the former Charger. Fantasy managers should not expect this to be the start of a renaissance for Allen.

Verdict: Fiction

David Moore - WR, Carolina Panthers

Week 12 stats: six receptions for 81 yards and one touchdown - overall WR9

David Moore surprisingly served as the No. 1 option for Carolina this week, catching six passes for 81 yards and a score on 10 targets. All those numbers were Moore's best mark of the season.

David Moore 😂

pic.twitter.com/Z1BTe5Ttm6 https://t.co/GbVoHogfTJ

— Fantasy_Football_Life (@Fantasy__4Life) November 26, 2024

It was a strong game where quarterback Bryce Young worked hard to get the ball in Moore's hands. It's also almost impossible to trust this is more than a blip on the radar. I'll add him in 16-team leagues, but I just don't think Moore is the league winner that his Week 12 performance suggested he could be.

A healthy Adam Thielen is still likely the No. 1 option in Carolina while rookie Xavier Legette is a strong No. 2. Moore is, at best, the No. 3 guy in this offense going forward. Let's not pretend that Week 12 was a sign of anything more than just one good week for a player who's unlikely to have more good weeks.

Verdict: Fiction

Noah Gray - TE, Kansas City Chiefs

Week 12 stats: four catches for 66 yards and two touchdowns - overall TE1

Kansas City Chiefs tight end Noah Gray has four touchdown receptions in 2024. They've all come in the past two games. So, what do we make of that?

On one hand, we can't ignore that Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been looking for Gray down near the goal line. The 25-year-old tight end has shown he can be a reliable option in the red zone.

Chiefs have been ramping up Noah Gray a little bit in recent weeks.

He's mostly been an outlet or schemed open leak player while w/ KC. Late couple games they seem to be targeting him more vs + matchups over the MoF at the marker/GL and vertically downfield. pic.twitter.com/aJHoQVM2Mq

— Matt Lane (@Matty_KCSN) November 26, 2024

Still, it's hard to view this as more than a fluke, right? Gray caught four passes for 66 yards this week, marking just the second time all year that he had over 40 receiving yards.

His newfound connection with Mahomes near the goal line makes Gray an intriguing tight-end streamer for fantasy managers who are betting on a touchdown, but his floor remains relatively low.

Verdict: Fiction, but he has value as a boom-or-bust play

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