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We have a solid five-game slate on tap in the NBA tonight, with the Knicks-Cavaliers and Thunder-Phoenix games being the national TV matchups on ESPN. Those should be incredible, tightly-contested matchups, but we DFS degenerates need to be laser-focused on the Pacers-Spurs affair in San Antonio. That game has the slate's highest implied total and fasted projected pace. Even more importantly, they both rank in the top 10 for most fantasy points per game allowed this season.
The Hornets-Raptors, Knicks-Cavaliers, and Pistons-Magic games don't rate out as ones we want to target tonight actively. Still, there will always be exceptions due to injury situations, such as what we have going on in the Hornets-Raptors matchup. Donovan Mitchell, Devin Booker, Jusuf Nurkic, Brandon Miller, Caris LeVert, Bruce Brown, and Eric Gordon are the questionable tags to monitor.
The key to succeeding in NBA DFS is making adjustments during the day as injury information becomes available. But it's always important to have a game plan, with the best players and spots circled before making those adjustments. To keep up with all the latest developments and get access to updated projections, grab an NBA season pass and access our RotoBaller Premium Discord, where @chiefjustice6 is talking about the slate until lineups lock!
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I start my process with a "K-Grade" model shown below, which I've been fine-tuning for about three years. This model takes real metrics like the implied total, fantasy points per game allowed, defensive ratings, offensive ratings, and projected pace and applies them to a model with weights. It should be used as a directional guide for the slate, and I've had plenty of success with it, but stick to your process and DFS best practices. For example, a player on a team with a "D" K-Grade could easily be the top value on the slate due to a significant uptick in minutes and usage rate.
Today's NBA DFS K-Grades
Today's NBA DFS Core Plays
Let's first look at our premium projections to see who we want to target for our top spend-ups tonight.
We're getting a slate with many value options, which means we can afford to get to whoever we want at the top of the salary pool. I won't talk anyone out of playing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but I won't prioritize him as the most expensive option on this slate. He has finished with less than 50 DK points in two straight games and hasn't exceeded 60 DK points since 2/4. The Suns have also stepped up their PG defense recently, as they're allowing the seventh-least fantasy points per game to the position over their last seven games.
It's the Victor Wembanyama show, folks. I can't get enough of his insane upside, which he has shown more often recently with games of 71.75 and 73.5 DK points over his last four games. I have him at a 1.72 FPTS/min rate this season, which will work against a Pacers team that allows the ninth-most fantasy points per game and plays at the second-fastest pace in the NBA. There aren't exactly position-specific metrics we can use for Wemby, but we can confidently say that Indy doesn't have the personnel to slow him down.
Tyrese Haliburton is another favorite GPP target of mine in the same game environment and against a Spurs backcourt that bleeds fantasy points to opposing guards. He's not for the faint of heart, though, after he had a career-worst game and finished with 7.75 DK points on Friday. He's going to bounce back in a spot that, quite literally, can't get any better. Pascal Siakam is another solid higher-end option from this game, while Miles Bridges and Immanuel Quickley are two underpriced pieces to consider from the Hornets-Raptors showdown.
Top Core Plays:
- Victor Wembanyama, SAS vs. IND - PF/C ($10,400 DK; $11,800 FD)
- Tyrese Haliburton, IND vs. SAS - PG ($9,200 DK; $9,500 FD)
- Miles Bridges, CHA vs. TOR - SF/PF ($8,200 DK; $8,600 FD)
- Immanuel Quickley, TOR vs. CHA - PG ($7,900 DK; $7,800 FD)
Today's NBA DFS Value Plays
Using the same premium NBA projections, let's sort them by fantasy points per dollar to see what players are popping as the best values tonight.
The Hornets will be without a group of rotational players, and Scottie Barnes will miss time for the Raptors, so we have many options in the value department tonight. None other than Kelly Olynyk is one of the day's best plays. The veteran journeyman stepped up and produced 40 DK points with a 16/10/3/3 line over 28 minutes in the last game, filling in admirably after Barnes went down. He'll do the same here, and at well over 1.00 FPTS/min against a Hornets team that can't defend bigs, I'm all in.
Vasilije Micic and Tre Mann are the value pieces from the Hornets I'm most interested in. They're cheap enough and projected to play for at least 30 minutes a piece, which is all we need in a spot against a reeling Raptors defense. Toronto has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game over their last seven games and the fifth-most over their last 30 games. Additionally, they're allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to PGs and the 10th-most fantasy points to SGs over their last seven games.
Brandon Miller, Miles Bridges, Myles Turner, and Jakob Poeltl are all top targets of mine, but they aren't what I'd call "value" players. I suspect we'll be getting more options opening up as we get news throughout the day. The Donovan Mitchell and Devin Booker news could change things very quickly.
Top Value Plays:
- Kelly Olynyk, TOR vs. CHA - PF/C ($5,700 DK; $5,700 FD)
- Vasilije Micic, CHA vs. TOR - PG/SG ($4,300 DK; $4,600 FD)
- Tre Mann, CHA vs. TOR - PG ($5,400 DK; $6,000 FD)
- Brandon Miller, CHA vs. TOR - SG/SF ($6,400 DK; $6,800 FD)
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Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Point Guard
I'm only interested in getting some SGA and Haliburton from the high-priced PG group. SGA won't be a top priority due to his pricing and rough matchup against the Suns, but his ability to pop off in any game means we can't write him off. Haliburton is coming off his worst game since he became a star, and I'm banking on him finding his groove in the best game environment on the slate.
I will focus on saving money with value options at the point guard position. As detailed above, Micic and Mann are wildly underpriced for their expected roles in tonight's sneaky-good matchup. LaMelo Ball, Mark Williams, Cody Martin, and Seth Curry will all be out, so those two will step into higher usage roles with locked-in minutes. Quickley also looks excellent with Barnes out of the lineup, while Devin Vassell, T.J. McConnell, and Tre Jones are options due to their potential upside in what should be a high-powered game.
Top PG Options:
- Vasilije Micic @ TOR ($4,300 DK; $4,600 FD)
- Tre Mann @ TOR ($5,400 DK; $6,000 FD)
- Immanuel Quickley vs. CHA ($7,900 DK; $7,800 FD)
- Tyrese Haliburton @ SAS ($9,200 DK; $9,500 FD)
Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Shooting Guard
We can get to Micic at shooting guard as well, and that's something I'll be doing quite a bit unless we get further injury news. Brandon Miller is a top target for me on this slate. The rookie has made impressive strides in his game this season, flashing the upside he showed at Alabama. He sees the biggest usage bump (+9.3%) to a team-leading 33% with the injured Hornets off the floor this season, so the potential for a ceiling game is certainly there. The Raptors have been awful against SFs (Miller's true position) lately, allowing the most fantasy points per game to the position over their last 15 games.
Devin Vassell is always live for a big game alongside Wemby, so he's a player I'm very intrigued by at his modest salary in that A+ game environment. He has scored at least 43 DK points in four of his last five games and exceeded 50.75 DK points twice during that stretch. RJ Barrett and Bruce Brown look fine here, but I'll concentrate my lineups around Micic, Miller, and Vassell at SG.
Top SG Options:
- Vasilije Macic @ TOR ($4,300 DK; $4,600 FD)
- Brandon Miller @ TOR ($6,400 DK; $6,800 FD)
- Devin Vassell vs. IND ($7,500 DK; $7,900 FD)
- RJ Barrett vs. CHA ($7,600 DK; $7,500 FD)
Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Small Forward
Miller also qualifies at his true position (SF) and is someone I'll be getting a lot of tonight. Miles Bridges is firmly in play for a lot of the same reasons I like Miller, though he's much more expensive and - like Miller - has put up some lineup-killing performances lately. Those bad games came against the Bucks, though, and tonight's matchup against the vulnerable Raptors' defense is much more favorable. I like the Hornets' wings in this spot, though my interest is partially a product of the position being relatively weak.
Jeremy Sochan can be a frustrating player to roster, as evidenced by his wild last-five game log: 36, 1.5, 14.5, 43.5, and 32.5 DK points. What are we even supposed to do with that? Julian Champagnie has already been ruled out, so we can feel more comfortable about Sochan's minutes in this pristine game environment. He's about a 1.00 FPTS/min player, and at his mid-range pricing on a rough slate for SFs, I'm intrigued by his upside in this matchup.
Top SF Options:
- Brandon Miller @ TOR ($6,400 DK; $6,800 FD)
- Miles Bridges @ TOR ($8,200 DK; $8,600 FD)
- Jeremy Sochan vs. IND ($5,400 DK) DraftKings Only - $6,100 at PG only on FanDuel
- RJ Barrett vs. CHA ($7,600 DK; $7,500 FD)
Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Power Forward
Kelly Olynyk is back in our lives once again. The 10-year vet will step into a sizable role with Scottie Barnes (hand) set to miss the foreseeable future. He averages 1.05 FPTS/min this season and should play around 30 minutes, so 32 DK points is the baseline expectation. That FPTS/min rate will jump up with Barnes off the floor, and the matchup is as favorable as it gets, with the Hornets allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to PFs (and fourth-most to Cs) this season. Smash Olynyk, regardless of how popular he is.
Wemby is my favorite spend-up on the slate for reasons I've covered in the "Core Plays" section. TLDR: Insane upside in the top game environment on the slate. Bridges qualifies at PF, while Grant Williams, Sochan, and Siakam can be mixed in. You can always take shots on the upside Kevin Durant brings to the table, but it's a tough positional matchup, and he hasn't hit value in three straight games.
Top PF Options:
- Kelly Olynyk vs. CHA ($5,700 DK; $5,700 FD)
- Victor Wembanyama vs. IND ($10,400 DK; $11,800 FD)
- Miles Bridges @ TOR ($8,200 DK; $8,600 FD)
- Jeremy Sochan vs. IND ($5,400 DK) DraftKings Only - $6,100 at PG only on FanDuel
Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Center
We can get to Olynyk and Wemby here, and they'll be two of my top exposures on the slate unless we get significant injury news. However, Jakob Poeltl will be heavily rotated as a center-only option in my lineups. He's underpriced and in the same incredible matchup Olynyk is in. The difference with Poeltl is that we've seen great production from him all season, so his ability to smash in this spot feels much more bankable than Olynyk, who will be more popular.
Grant Williams, Jusuf Nurkic, and Myles Turner all look great, and I'll be getting to them, but unfortunately, we can't play everybody. Williams is the one I'll be mixing in the most from the group, as he's cheap and qualifies at PF. Keep an eye on Nurkic and Nick Richards, as they're questionable, and their absences would open up value elsewhere (Bol Bol, anyone?).
- Kelly Olynyk vs. CHA ($5,700 DK; $5,700 FD)
- Victor Wembanyama vs. IND ($10,400 DK; $11,800 FD)
- Jakob Poeltl vs. CHA ($6,500 DK; $7,400 FD)
- Grant Williams @ TOR ($4,600 DK)
Today's Top NBA DFS Game Stacks
- Indiana @ San Antonio (243.5 total)
- Charlotte @ Toronto (222 total)
Today's Top NBA DFS Avoids
- I'm not getting much of anything from the Knicks-Cavs or Pistons-Magic games. With all the value opened up in the Hornets-Raptors game and Haliburton and Wemby in the best game environment, I don't need to force players in bad spots. We'll see how injury news shakes out, but for now, those games are not the ones I'm interested in.
- Donovan Mitchell. Even if he suits up tonight, I don't love his prospects in a brutal matchup against the snail-slow-paced Knicks. He's also more expensive than Haliburton, who I like to bounce back in a beautiful game environment and positional matchup. It's a hard pass for me.
- Conversely, I won't get to either of the Knicks' big men tonight. Isaiah Hartenstein and Precious Achiuwa are priced way up for their roles and recent production, and this game environment is awful, with the Knicks (30th) and Cavaliers (22nd) bringing up the rear in pace this season.
My Favorite NBA DFS Lineup Picks for Today
Here is where I leave you with some of my favorites.
- My favorite overall play: Victor Wembanyama
- My favorite CASH play: Kelly Olynyk
- My favorite GPP play(s): Jakob Poeltl, Tyrese Haliburton, Devin Vassell
- My favorite value play(s): Vasilije Micic, Tre Mann, Kelly Olynyk
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