RADIO
Welcome back to “The Kick-Off”! We are here for Gameweek 5!!! We get to continue to cherish the return of our beloved Premier League season for yet another year. This year will be filled with new players, new clubs and just as many upsets and superb victories as every year carries. Today’s slate will feature one overwhelming favorite, Chelsea -175. This slate will feature many pickem matches and it could end up with many goals or very little. I will guide you through this four-game slate starting at 2:45 P.M. EST.
Please Be Advised: This write-up does not cover the late game on FanDuel because of the differences in the DraftKings and FanDuel slates.
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or on “SLACK”.
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The Kick-Off - EPL Matchweek 5
[H] Crystal Palace (+110) vs [A] Brentford (+240): Total: u2.5
Palace had a great start at the weekend after they went up 2-0 on Manchester City early on thanks to two successful set-pieces. Meanwhile, Brentford could not capitalize on home-field advantage against Everton and eventually drew 1-1. Through four matches, both clubs are at the bottom of the table in goals, assists, shots, created chances and big chances created. Palace is second to last though in crosses conceded. With both clubs in nearly matching form, whoever can take control of the flanks will have the most excellent chance of taking all 3 points.
Expected Outcome: 1-1
Forwards
Mikkel Damsgaar-DK $5.4K || FD $10
Damsgaard has yet to see the pitch in the top-flight since his arrival to Brentford during this window. He did however make it into the Carabao Cup game as a sub, where he took one shot and created one chance. Luckily for the midfielder/winger, if he does start as expected, he will have every opportunity to produce against a team that is weak on the flank.
Midfielders
Eberechi Eze-DK $8K || FD $15
Eze is a diamond in the rough right now for the Eagles. Their offense is dried up, excluding Eze and his teammate Wilfried Zaha – not expected to start –. Eze elevated his game even more in the 4-2 loss to Manchester City at the weekend where he had 1 assist and 2 crosses. The main worry about his production is due to his positioning in the starting XI for Palace, sitting behind the attacking front three – 4 shots through 4 matches –. If he can throw himself into the mix more, he will far exceed his salary.
Defenders
Aaron Hickey-DK $3.4K || FD $8
Hickey is the perfect salary for a wingback in this matchup. The defender has only surpassed double-digit fantasy points once on DraftKings and he has 3 shots, 7 crosses, 2 tackles and 2 interceptions through four appearances thus far. Going against Palace who concedes a large number of crosses per game, Hickey could end up becoming a chalk play on the slate.
[H] Fulham (+220) vs [A] Brighton & Hove Albion (+125): Total: u2.5
As expected, this past weekend, Brighton’s defense remained superior and held an explosive Leeds offense to a clean sheet in Brighton’s 1-0 win. Fulham on the other hand continued to impress against top opposition, losing 2-1 at the Emirates. Fulham now gets to harness the home-field crowd during the midweek competition in hopes that they can return to winning ways after dropping their second match in as many weeks. This will be a tightly-contested match with the possibility of the spoils being shared.
Expected Outcome: 1-1
Forwards
Aleksandar Mitrovic-DK $9.4K || FD $20
Mitrovic is not shy of scoring goals and he has proven he can score against anyone with 4 goals in 4 appearances this season and 3 of those goals coming against Liverpool and Arsenal. Mitrovic also has 15 shots, 1 tackle and 1 interception during those four appearances. His salary is quite high going against a defensively-adept team, but he will have one of the better odds at scoring at any time on the slate.
Midfielders
Pascal Gross-DK $9.7K || FD $17
Despite Fulham being sound defensively, Gross will be the highest-owned player from this meeting and for good reason. In four matches, he has 3 goals, 1 assist, 6 shots, 27 crosses, 3 tackles and 1 interception. He has a solid floor and an appetizing ceiling. Unfortunately, it will come down to either Gross or Mitrovic and if you are playing a ‘cash’ build, Gross is the smarter of the two plays.
Defenders
Kevin Mbabu-DK $3.8K || FD $9
If you want to pay up, you can also consider, Pervis Estupinan-DK $5.2K || FD $10, but we will look at Mbabu here. The fullback transferred to the Premier League from the Bundesliga this window and he has only made one start through four matches. Luckily for him, in the one start, he managed to assist a Mitrovic header and Mbabu also crossed three times. He has shown time and time again in the Bundesliga that he can be a reliable wingback and this start will be significant in his pursuit of Kenny Tete’s starting job. Mbabu will feel quite energized for this meeting with the pressure mounting to get more starting minutes.
[H] Southampton (+425) vs [A] Chelsea (-175) Total: u2.5
Before anyone gets carried away with Chelsea’s home win at the weekend with only 10 men, it was against Leicester City. The Blues have only won twice in four matches this season, once against Everton away and once against Leicester City at home. Neither opponent is a worthwhile comparison to how good Chelsea is. Especially when you look at their other two matches – a 2-2 draw at home to Tottenham and a 3-0 loss away to Leeds –. Chelsea has much to prove still and they will not have an easy match against Southampton either. The hosts have also beaten Leicester City and they most recently lost to Manchester United at home 1-0. This could be a blowout match for Chelsea, or this could be a dry, low-scoring match.
Expected Outcome: 1-1
Forwards
Che Adams-DK $7.4K || FD $15
It is truly impressive how poorly distributed the salaries were for this match. None of the strikers on either side of the pitch are worthwhile to pay for due to their production and lack of consistency thus far, but yet here we are highlighting Adams. It looks as if Kei Havertz-DK $6.7K || FD $18, will head back up to the striker position for the Blues, instead of Sterling for another slightly less salary option. Either way, both strikers have a lot to still prove, before their salaries are warranted, especially on this slate. In four appearances, Adams has 2 goals, 9 assists, 1 cross and 2 tackles.
Midfielders
James Ward-Prowse-DK $9K || FD $17
Ward-Prowse is the cog of Southampton’s team whether it is offense or defense. Either way he controls the pace of play for the Saints. Chelsea’s midfield has been struggling as of late, which can only bode well for Ward-Prowse and his creativity up the pitch. If he can start producing early on, he will cause devastation to Chelsea’s defense. In four appearances for Ward-Prowse, he has 1 goal, 1 assist, 3 shots, 34 crosses, 4 tackles and 6 interceptions.
Defenders
Reece James-DK $8.1K || FD $15
James makes the article for the second time in four days and he did not disappoint at the weekend. The wingback bagged his first apple of the season after setting Sterling up for the second goal of the match with a pinpoint low-cross. James has only missed double-digit fantasy points on DraftKings once this season and he continues to be a reliable source of production at the defender position. In four matches, he has 1 goal, 1 assist, 7 shots, 28 crosses, 5 tackles and 5 interceptions. If he can continue to capitalize on Chelsea's offensive-friendly formation, he will have ample opportunities to produce.
[H] Leeds United (+110) vs [A] Everton (+230) Total: o2.5
After successfully defeating Chelsea 3-0 two weeks ago, Leeds managed to drop all three points at Brighton at the weekend, losing 1-0. While Everton has yet to win in the top flight this season and barely won their opening Carabao Cup match. This match should see plenty of goals with neither defense standing strong and both offenses capable of producing, especially with Everton’s new signing, Neal Maupay from Brighton. However, the hosts will have every opportunity to snag all three points here.
Expected Outcome: Leeds 2-1
Forwards
Neal Maupay-DK $3.9K || FD $14
Maupay is the ultimate chalk play of the slate as a bargain deal at striker with worthwhile goal-scoring odds. The striker did not overly impress last year with Brighton, totaling 8 goals and 2 assists over 25 appearances. However, Everton tends to play a much heavier attacking style than Brighton and Maupay will look to get on the end of through balls and crosses from new teammates Demarai Gray and Anthony Gordon. Leeds is currently averaging 1 goal per game in all competitions and this could be the perfect debut for the new striker.
Midfielders
Dwight McNeil-DK $6.6K || FD $13
McNeil sneaks back into the article with teammate Demarai Gray expected to sit out this fixture. McNeil has yet to put his name on the map since his arrival from Burnley and this is the prime chance for the midfielder with duo eligibility on DraftKings. Leeds United is at the bottom of the table in shots, crosses and chances created against and this only helps McNeil’s case. With his potential role on set-pieces, he could certainly reach value and exceed it. In four appearances, he has 4 shots, 12 crosses, 6 tackles and 1 interception.
Defenders
Nathan Patterson-DK $4.4K || FD $9
We will finish this matchup with a clean Toffee sweep. Patterson is Mr. Consistency for Everton. The wingback does not have high-ceiling performances nor does he have low-floor performances. Through four appearances, Patterson has 3 shots, 8 crosses, 7 tackles and 5 interceptions. That makes him a reliable floor defender and the 3-5-2 formation that Everton plays, only enhances Patterson’s chances of being involved both offensively and defensively.
Goalies
Edouard Mendy-DK $5.7K || FD $14
Due to the lack of overwhelming favorites, Mendy will be the chalk keeper. Mendy has not had the greatest of performances to start the season with 6 goals conceded through four appearances. Luckily, he did manage to post a clean sheet in the opening match for Chelsea, but he has yet to rekindle that form. Thankfully he is at least averaging 3 saves per match which are providing him some value. Southampton is not a dynamic offense by any means and as long as Mendy can stay sharp on set-pieces, he will have a great opportunity at his second clean sheet of the season.
Gavin Bazunu-DK $3.9K || FD $6
There are not any ‘safe’ plays on this slate outside of chalk lock Mendy. We will look towards the other side of the pitch in the Chelsea match at Manchester City product Bazunu. The keeper has been impressive in his first appearances for Southampton with 11 saves and 8 goals conceded in four appearances. For a bottom-barrel keeper, those numbers are solid, especially considering how poorly Southampton’s defense has been to start the season. Thankfully, Chelsea’s offense is lacking goals right now and if they start Havertz as their striker, this only makes Bazunu more appetizing.
Expected Corner Takers:
Crystal Palace: Eze
Brentford: Jensen
Fulham: Pereira
Brighton & Hove Albion: Gross
Southampton: Ward-Prowse
Chelsea: Mount/James
Leeds United: Harrison/Aaronson
Everton: Gray/McNeil
Thanks for reading The Kick-Off! Good luck in all of your contests today!
