EPL Betting Picks and FPL Game Previews for Matchweek 38: English Premier League

May 26, 2023

Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchweek 38 of the 2022/23 season, on 05/28/2023. He previews each game from the English Premier League; picking bets, analyzing the FPL impacts, and looking at the best options for your lineups.

We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction and will include which players to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.

We've reached the last weekend of the Premier League season and with the title secured, the European places all but settled, eyes will be on the relegation battle. Three teams are fighting for one spot of safety and things are set to be tense on the final day. In a slight change of pace, although I'll still be offering predictions for every game, I'll mention what is on the line for each team for their final game so you can assess how much involvement you want in some games based on what is up for grabs.

We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller, too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content on top of the weekly preview and betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.

Sunday, May 28, 2023

All games kick off at 11:30 am ET this weekend.

Arsenal (-275) vs. Wolves (+650)

Score prediction: Arsenal 5 – 0 Wolves

Arsenal's guaranteed second place and after losing their last two games, will want to finish the season strong. They've overachieved this season based on expectations and their young squad will look to bounce back from their end-of-season slump and they could put on a display for their fans this weekend.

Wolves could finish anywhere between 12th and 15th place but given they were bottom of the table when the league restarted following the World Cup, they will no doubt be relieved. Wolves have lost their last two away games without scoring and that included a 6-0 thumping at Brighton.

Aston Villa (+115) vs. Brighton (+205)

Score prediction: Aston Villa 2 – 2 Brighton

A win guarantees Villa seventh place and a spot in next season's Europa Conference League. All they need to do is at least match Tottenham and Brentford's results. Brighton has guaranteed themselves a place in the Europa League next season and a sixth-placed finish.

There's been an average of 2.83 goals per Villa home game this season while Brighton's away games have averaged 3.56. Only Arsenal has scored more away goals than Brighton so I expect plenty in this game even if the visitors have nothing on the line.

Brentford (+340) vs. Manchester City (-140)

Score prediction: Brentford 2 – 1 Manchester City

A Brentford win coupled with Tottenham and Aston Villa not winning will see them finish seventh and qualify for the Europa Conference League. Any other set of results will see them miss out but they can't finish lower than ninth. Manchester City secured the title last weekend and has an FA Cup Final followed by a Champions League Final over the next two weekends.

I can't see City playing their strongest side given they played most of their top stars on Thursday and have a final on consecutive weekends as they bid for an historic treble. They still have an abundance of talent but that could open the door for Brentford to pull off a surprise.

Chelsea (+175) vs. Newcastle United (+145)

Score prediction: Chelsea 1 – 1 Newcastle United

Chelsea's miserable season will see them finish no higher than 11th place, which will be their lowest finish since the mid-'90s. Newcastle secured their return to the Champions League on Monday and can leapfrog Manchester United into third if they win and Manchester United fails to do so.

With only two games left to play, Chelsea are set to get less points than their worst-ever Premier League season! 😬 pic.twitter.com/SiGDtUkoga

— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) May 23, 2023

Chelsea just wants the season to end and I don't see them avoiding a seventh straight home game without a win. Newcastle will still want to push for third place but they've already achieved their goal of a top-4 finish so this game could have more of a 'final game of the season' feel about it.

Crystal Palace (-135) vs. Nottingham Forest (+340)

Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1 – 0 Nottingham Forest

After flirting with relegation, Palace's late-season resurgence has seen them ensure they cannot finish lower than 12th. Forest sealed their Premier League survival last weekend and will finish 15th or 16th.

Forest expended a lot of energy last weekend and no team has scored fewer on their travels than Forest (ten). This could be the drabbest game of the weekend and one that likely won't be pleasing to the eyes.

Everton (-220) vs. Bournemouth (+550)

Score prediction: Everton 1 – 0 Bournemouth

This is where all eyes will be on Sunday. An Everton win will guarantee their safety. Unless Leeds or Leicester win, Everton cannot go down either. Bournemouth can finish anywhere between 13th and 16th but the fact they secured their Premier League status already means they've achieved their target.

Everton has only won one of their last ten games and they've lost their last three home games with an aggregate score of 10-2. But Bournemouth comes into the game on the back of three straight defeats and failed to score in their last two.

Leeds United (+175) vs. Tottenham (+135)

Score prediction: Leeds United 2 – 1 Tottenham

Leeds' position is the most precarious. The only way they can avoid relegation is by beating Tottenham, a Leicester loss or draw, and an Everton loss. They can stay up if Everton draw and Leicester fails to win but they will need to win by three goals themselves. Without Rodrigo and Patrick Bamford (both of whom are set to miss out), that'll be a huge task.

Tottenham can finish seventh and qualify for the Europa Conference League. To do so, they will need to better Aston Villa's result and hope Brentford doesn't better Tottenham's result. A win and a Villa loss guarantees seventh place no matter what Brentford does. A loss ensures they cannot finish higher than eighth.

Leicester City (+100) vs. West Ham United (+245)

Score prediction: Leicester City 2 – 0 West Ham United

Leicester's draw at Newcastle means a win keeps them up if Everton fails to beat Bournemouth. That's the only way they can avoid relegation. But with just one win and seven points from their last 15 games, a home win is far from a given. Their change in approach on Monday yielded their first clean sheet in 22 games.

🚨 James Maddison and Harvey Barnes are benched for Leicester 🚨#FPL #NEWLEI pic.twitter.com/RMXmhjV9mo

— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) May 22, 2023

West Ham will likely rest a host of their top players as they can't finish lower than 15th place and they have their Europa Conference League Final on June 07th which will secure qualification into next season's Europa League should they win it.

Manchester United (-220) - Fulham (+550)

Score prediction: Manchester United 1 – 1 Fulham

Manchester United can secure third place with a win but they've secured a top-4 finish with their win Thursday and they can rest some players ahead of their FA Cup Final next weekend against Manchester City.

For Fulham, despite having little to play for in recent weeks, they're unbeaten in their last three games and scored nine in those games so I don't expect them to be pushovers.

Southampton (+650) vs. Liverpool (-270)

Score prediction: Southampton 0 – 3 Liverpool

Southampton's Premier League tenure ended with a whimper. They've already confirmed manager Rubén Sellés will be gone after this game (and likely to be replaced by Russell Martin). They have taken just three points from their last 12 games. Liverpool can only finish fifth and will be in the Europa League next season but they will want to end the season on a high.

Betting Picks

The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score).

Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Plays & Picks

This is our weekly section that will look at specific players (and teams) with regard to FPL. We'll look at the best defense to stack, low-rostered players set to offer big returns, high-rostered dud plays, and the best captain choice for this week.

Stack the D

I'm torn between Leicester and Crystal Palace this week. Leicester changed formation, personnel, and approach on Monday to secure a clean sheet and the more pragmatic approach could be their preferred option again this week. Given West Ham's likelihood to rest players, they could come away with another clean sheet.

For Palace, they face the league's lowest scorers on the road, although Nottingham Forest have scored in five of their last six away games. But their exertions last weekend may have left them with little left this week.

Unloved Nuggets

This is a bit of a gut call but last season's final-day hero for Leeds Jack Harrison is only on 2.0% of teams and despite the team's struggles, he still has 12 goal involvements this season. Without Bamford and Rodrigo, they'll need someone to step up, and against a Tottenham team that's conceded the sixth most goals this season (62), Harrison could be the hero again.

Jack Harrison 🗣

“After the Brentford game it felt like a weight was lifted off our shoulders. When we scored the second goal I ran to the away fans in the corner thinking ‘I can breathe again." 🤩 #LUFC pic.twitter.com/UOFZW7KlQG

— LUFCMOT (@LUFCMOTcom) April 6, 2023

Avoid the Trap

I'm not picking a player but rather a team. In fact, two teams. Both Manchester clubs will have an eye on next weekend's FA Cup Final and in City's case, a Champions League Final the week after. I doubt the likes of Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne starts on Sunday, especially after starting on Wednesday.

United secured a spot in next season's Champions League and with a chance to win their second trophy of the season and stop their neighbors from matching their achievement of winning the treble, they will more than likely prioritize next weekend over this Sunday's game.

Lock of the Week

You have to go back to the 2013-14 season for the last time the final weekend of the season didn't see a team score five or more goals. I mentioned on the Roundtable that Arsenal or Liverpool are my picks to achieve that feat this Sunday and if Arsenal are to do it, captain Martin Ødegaard will more than likely be involved in most of the goals.

A goal should see him finish as Arsenal's top scorer this season, something he's tied with Gabriel Martinelli for currently, and with five goals in his last seven games, more of the same to round off the campaign is my pick.

Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!

LIKE ROTOBALLER?

CLICK HERE, ENTER ROTOBALLER.COM, THEN CHECK THE BOX

More Betting and DFS Picks