EPL Betting Picks and FPL Game Previews for Matchweek 25: English Premier League

February 23, 2023

Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchweek 25 of the 2022/23 season, starting on 02/24/2023. He previews each game from the English Premier League; picking bets, analyzing the FPL impacts and looking at the best options for your lineups

We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.

Last week was a pretty standard week in terms of all 20 teams having one game. However, the results were far from normal. Chelsea lost at home to bottom-of-the-league Southampton, Manchester City drew with Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth kept their first away clean sheet of the season and Brighton failed to score despite averaging 2.3 goals a game in their last 11 matches. This week, we have four sides without a game due to the EFL Cup final but four sides have two extra midweek fixtures. Let's hope the lopsided schedule leads to more normal results.

We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly preview and betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, @wagmifantasy, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.

Friday, February 24th, 2023

Wolves (+215) at Fulham (+135) 03:00 pm ET

Score prediction: Fulham 1 - 1 Wolves

Fulham picked up an impressive three points at Brighton last weekend and have quietly moved up into sixth place with dreams of European qualification. After keeping four clean sheets in their first 21 EPL games, they've kept three in their last three games. Wolves suffered a surprise 1-0 defeat at home to Bournemouth which keeps them too close to the relegation zone for comfort. The 13 points collected since Lopetegui took over have given them some cushion but another defeat here could suck them back into the mire.

Fulham's top-scorer Aleksandar Mitrović is carrying a knock but is expected to play. However, no goals or assists in his last six games means he's not someone I'm starting with any confidence. Manor Solomon has scored a goal in back-to-back games but both came from the bench so he's an interesting name, albeit a risky one as he's no lock to start. Andreas Pereira and Willian both have three goal-involvements in their last eight games while I wouldn't be surprised at all if Fulham kept a clean sheet, making their defenders all interesting FPL options too.

For Wolves, their lack of goals really leaves them without much FPL appeal. Rúben Neves is a quality player and capable of scoring and creating goals but there's a lack of a supporting cast to really be confident in him. Any Wolves player in FPL is really a dart throw, even with their double gameweek.

Saturday, February 25th, 2023

Aston Villa (+150) at Everton (+200) 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Everton 2 - 1 Aston Villa

Everton won their second straight home game since Sean Dyche took over, both being 1-0. Goals have been the issue all season and the 17 scored (23 games) is the joint-fewest in the league. It's now 11 games without scoring more than once. But Villa has been leaking goals of late, conceding 11 in their last three games, all of which they've lost. They have scored five in that span and the last two games have both been against the league's top-2. I don't expect another handful of goals but it is set to be a more entertaining affair than Everton's last two home games.

Everton's James Tarkowski could easily have had three goals in his last three games, but he has one and is a threat from set-pieces. Only Bournemouth has conceded more from set-pieces this year than Villa and a feature of Dyche's teams has been maximizing dead-ball situations so I wouldn't be shocked to see him find the net again. There isn't much in the way of an attacking appeal otherwise from Everton so playing Tarkowski with another Everton defender does have appeal if they are able to keep a third consecutive home clean sheet. They also have a second game at Arsenal on Wednesday.

Villa's Ollie Watkins has scored in each of his last four EPL games (with one assist) and is one of the most in-form players in FPL. He'll fancy making it five goals in five games this weekend and has a decent set of fixtures coming up so is a very viable option to bring in if you haven't already done so. Villa lacks anyone else of appeal but Alex Moreno is someone I'm continuing to keep an eye on. He picked up an assist last week but until he's solidified as a regular starter, I'm not willing to roster him.

Southampton (+270) at Leeds United (+105) 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Leeds United 1 - 1 Southampton

The league's bottom two clash on Saturday with the loser staring relegation firmly in the face. Leeds' appointment of Javi Gracia as their new manager earlier this week is not a moment too soon. They're without a win in their last 11 EPL games and only scored in one of their last five games (a 2-2 draw at Manchester United). Southampton stunned Chelsea last weekend, ending a three-game losing streak with their 1-0 win and a win at Leeds could see them go from the bottom of the table to out of the relegation zone.

Each team has just one player of any interest for FPL purposes. Wilfried Gnonto continues to impress for Leeds but without a goalscorer up front or much support in attacking areas, he's not someone I'm rostering..... yet. Southampton's James Ward-Prowse scored another free-kick last weekend and is a threat from every set-play. He's scored five goals in his last eight games and if Southampton gets something from this game, it's more likely than not to have had Ward-Prowse's involvement.

Arsenal (-140) at Leicester City (+360) 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Leicester City 1 - 3 Arsenal

Leicester's three-game unbeaten run came to a resounding end last week, losing 3-0 at Manchester United. In truth, they could've been a couple of goals ahead in the first half but they've now conceded 16 goals in their eight games since the World Cup. Arsenal dug deep to get their title bid back on track last Saturday, coming from behind twice to beat Aston Villa in injury time, running out 4-2 winners. The same scoreline when Leicester beat Villa in gameweek 22. Arsenal has now gone five games without a clean sheet, conceding nine times in that run.

This is set to be a goal-filled game and Leicester's James Maddison is the top FPL player for the home side. He has two goals and an assist in his last three starts and despite missing six games this season, he still ranks second on the team for expected goals involvement (6.65 xGI). First on the team is Harvey Barnes, the only other Leicester player I'd be willing to start right now. He has 8.10 xGI this season with two goals and two assists in his last four games.

Arsenal's return to goalscoring form has come as a nice boost for FPL managers. Bukayo Saka is one of the best captain options this week with two games and seven goal involvements (five goals and two assists) in nine games since the World Cup. Martin Ødegaard is the other 'must-play' option this week, who also has seven goals involvements in nine games (two goals and five assists). Beyond those two, Eddie Nketiah and Gabriel Martinelli are the next best plays, although Nketiah has gone four games without a goal and Martinelli had to come off the bench last week to score his first goal in seven games.

Nottingham Forest (+380) at West Ham United (-130) 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: West Ham United 1 - 0 Nottingham Forest

West Ham's 2-0 defeat at Tottenham last week meant they come into this weekend in the relegation zone and with just one win in their last 11 EPL games. The problem has been scoring goals with just eight in that run. Forest snatched an unlikely point at home to Manchester City last week, drawing 1-1, and have now lost just once in their last seven games. Forest has also had issues scoring goals with just three in their 11 away games, although two have come in their last three road matches.

The only West Ham player I'm really playing in FPL right now is Jarrod Bowen. His 10.49 xGI this season is seventh among midfielders despite only picking up four goals and four assists. Half of those have come in the last six games. There is more on West Ham later on. For Forest, their lack of goals on the road doesn't give me much hope for FPL value but Morgan Gibbs-White (7.65 xGI) and Brennan Johnson (7.16 xGI) are both interesting discount plays, moreso at home though.

Manchester City (-340) at Bournemouth (+800) 12:30 pm ET

Score prediction: Bournemouth 0 - 2 Manchester City

Bournemouth's second away win of the season saw them move out of the relegation zone and after failing to score in four straight games, they've scored in three of their last four. Unfortunately, they haven't scored more than one in a game since Christmas. City's profligacy at Forest saw them drop two points and cede the top spot in the league. They've also gone four games without a clean sheet. Only 19 of City's 60 goals scored have been in away games and Bournemouth has only conceded 12 goals in 11 home games so while I think it'll be a home win, I don't believe it'll be as easy as the sportsbooks do.

Bournemouth has no FPL appeal this week, although there is a name that features in the FPL section later on. For City, Kevin de Bruyne has looked back near his best in recent games but missed the midweek Champions League tie due to an illness so he's one to monitor. Erling Haaland is a must-start if you roster him (like 85.1% of teams do). City defenders are very much in play given the likelihood of a clean sheet this week while either Jack Grealish or Riyad Mahrez are fine plays. Just brace yourself for some rotation within their starting lineup.

Liverpool (-140) at Crystal Palace (+360) 02:45 pm ET

Score prediction: Crystal Palace 0 - 2 Liverpool

Palace was denied a first win in seven EPL games, with a last-minute Brentford equalizer leaving them in 12th place. It was the first time since August that Palace has scored in three consecutive games but only five teams have scored fewer this season. Liverpool appeared to be back on track following consecutive 2-0 wins in the league but their 5-2 midweek Champions League defeats to Real Madrid brought them back to Earth and once again has us questioning if they can be trusted moving forward.

Palace is still missing Wilfried Zaha and it's hard to really trust any of their current squad in FPL. Liverpool, however, is full of good options given their double gameweek. My favorite play features in the FPL section at the end of the article but Mo Salah and Darwin Núñez both have a goal and an assist in their last two EPL games and both found the net against Madrid. Given their opponents this week (Wolves on Wednesday), their defense is also a good play with Andy Robertson and Trent Alexander-Arnold (both with five goal involvements this season) solid options.

Sunday, February 26th, 2023

Chelsea (+185) at Tottenham (+150) 08:30 am ET

Score prediction: Tottenham 1 - 0 Chelsea

Tottenham bounced back from their 4-1 drubbing at Leicester to beat West Ham 2-0 and move back into the top-4. They've been a serious 'Jekyll and Hyde' team lately with three wins (all with clean sheets) and two defeats (both conceding four goals) in their last five games. Chelsea keeps lurching towards abject misery and their 1-0 defeat at home to Southampton last weekend leaves them as close to the relegation zone as it does to the Champions League qualification places. Four goals in eight games is not what you want when you've spent over half a billion pounds on new players in less than a year.

Since the World Cup, Harry Kane has five goals and three assists (nine games) and remains one of the premium plays each week. Despite Chelsea's struggles, they have only conceded two goals in their last five games, and in their last 11 EPL games, the only time they've conceded more than one goal in a game came when they were reduced to ten men. So I'm more confident starting Tottenham defenders than anyone not named Harry Kane.

For Chelsea, Reece James has some appeal as a set-piece threat and Chelsea's defense is the only thing that has been anything resembling decent in recent weeks. The likes of Mykhailo Mudryk, Enzo Fernández and João Félix are all names I'm keeping an eye on but there's no way you can trust starting any Chelsea attacking player right now.

Betting Picks

The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays (moneyline, total goals and both teams to score) and we'll be playing three parlays using every game once with a total of ten units played. The picks for each parlay are highlighted in bold for each game, but feel free to utilize the table as you wish.

Parlays

Moneyline (+525) 3.5 units

Over/Under 2.5 goals (+483) 4 units

Both teams to score (+505) 2.5 units

Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Plays & Picks

This is our new weekly section that will look at specific players (and teams) with regard to FPL. We'll look at the best defense to stack, low-rostered players set to offer big returns, high-rostered dud plays, someone to keep an eye on, and the best captain choice for this week.

Stack the D

Liverpool is the best defense stack play this week but they are similar to Arsenal in that although a clean sheet is likely (and possibly two in Liverpool's case), their best FPL players are midfielders and forwards. Leaving very little benefit in stacking a defense when you cannot roster more than three players from any one team. That leaves us with West Ham United.

West Ham has only conceded 13 goals at home (11 games) which is a decent return for a team in the relegation zone. They only have three clean sheets at home but they came against teams who rank in the bottom six for scoring goals. The other three teams making up that bottom six are Southampton (who they have not faced at home), Saturday's opponents Nottingham Forest and themselves.

Forest's three away goals this season is by far the fewest and even though they have scored in two of their last three away games, they only mustered seven shots on target in their last three away games and only more than one in one of those matches. In six of their 11 away games, Forest has failed to hit the target more than once and on two occasions, failed to register a single shot on target. With Jarrod Bowen the only non-defender I'm rostering from West Ham, adding in Aaron Cresswell and another Hammers defender is a sound option this week.

Unloved nuggets

Although I'm not seeking to play any Bournemouth player this week, Marcus Tavernier is certainly someone who should be rostered more than the 0.2% he currently is. He missed six games through injury but started his first game since the World Cup last weekend and scored the only goal of the game. He also picked up a knock making him a slight doubt for this weekend but prior to his injury, Tavernier scored twice and tallied four assists in three games.

At just £4.7m, Tavernier makes an intriguing option that allows you to stack more expensive players elsewhere. That will be especially important as we continue to see more sides have double gameweeks moving forward. Unfortunately, Bournemouth's next three opponents are Manchester City, Arsenal, and Liverpool but the savings he provides can still help over the next fortnight and it wouldn't be a shock if he still had a goal involvement somewhere in those three games.

Avoid the trap

Joe Gomez is the 14th most-added player this gameweek, finding his way on over 100,000 new FPL squads. That's due to his price tag (£4.3m) and the fact Liverpool has a double gameweek. The problem is, Gomez is a doubt for the weekend following a muscle injury he picked up against Madrid in midweek. And his second-half performance in that game came under close scrutiny, with mistakes leading to Madrid's rout of the Reds.

Even if Gomez is fit for the trip to Palace, with Virgil Van Dijk fit again, there's only one spot up for grabs in the middle of Liverpool's defense and Joel Matip could easily return to the starting lineup after he missed out on the 2-0 win against Newcastle. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the ~100,000 FPL managers who transferred in Gomez find themselves taking a blank from him this week.

For the watchlist

Wilfried Gnonto has been the one bright spark for Leeds this season but his fantasy value has been hindered due to a lack of help around him. The appointment of Javi Gracia could help unlock something from an attacking sense and if Leeds finds a way to be more prolific going forward, Gnonto could be a real boost to FPL managers during the final third of the season.

Eddie Nketiah's form is a big reason Arsenal has been able to maintain their title hopes following the injury to Gabriel Jesus. But the Brazilian is moving closer to a return and could be back for the Gunners in early March. There's no reason to transfer him in now but with Nketiah going through a mini-drought, Jesus' return to fitness could see him go straight back into the starting lineup and he will once again be one of the most highly rostered players in FPL.

Lock of the week

I love Bukayo Saka this week and would 100% condone him as your captain, even using the triple-captain chip on him this week. But I'm planting my flag on Cody Gakpo this week and fully expecting a double-digit points haul from his two games. After an underwhelming start to his Liverpool career, the January signing has scored in each of Liverpool's last two EPL games and the winger is combining well with Mo Salah and Darwin Núñez, as their relationship starts to blossom.

As a midfielder, he has the added bonus of a potential clean sheet or two, so after scoring 14 points in his last two games, a similar return this week shouldn't be out of reach. Liverpool will be determined to put their midweek horror show behind them and with a top-4 finish their only realistic route back to Champions League football next season, six points this week will go a long way towards achieving that.

Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!

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