RADIO
The Premier League is back and so is the RotoBaller soccer team. We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
We head into the second international break of the young season after this week. With many teams nursing a multitude of injured players, the break may come at an ideal time for many clubs. We've also had the second matchday for European competitions in midweek, which adds another little wrinkle to this weekend's EPL fixtures.
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller, too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content on top of the weekly preview and betting content, which can be found if you click here. Follow the team on X (@LucidMediaDFS, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.
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Saturday, October 07, 2023
Luton Town (+600) vs. Tottenham (-230) - 07:30 am ET
Score prediction: Luton Town 1 - 3 Tottenham
Luton picked up a first EPL win last weekend but then slipped up at home to Burnley on Tuesday. Their inability to build momentum after their win at Everton makes getting anything this weekend an even tougher task. Tottenham was the beneficiary of a catastrophic VAR blunder at the weekend. They remain unbeaten and will go top with a win.
Tottenham hasn't kept a clean sheet in their last four games, shipping in six goals in the process. Luton has scored in all three home games but is yet to keep a clean sheet. I can't see Luton taking anything from the game, but I suspect they still find a route to goal.
FPL Pick: Son Heung-min
The Tottenham captain scored his sixth goal of the season in their controversial win against Liverpool. While he continues to play centrally, he should continue to score goals. Luton's 2.7 xGA (expected goals against) at home is the best in the league but this will be their toughest opponent to date. Son should be able to pick up his seventh goal of the campaign.
Burnley (+390) vs. Chelsea (-150) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Burnley 0 - 2 Chelsea
Burnley picked up a first win of the season when they beat Luton on Tuesday. That came on the back of a lackluster 2-0 defeat at Newcastle last Saturday. Chelsea's 2-0 defeat at Fulham on Monday ended a three-game winless streak and lifted some of the gloom around the club.
Burnley has lost all four home games, scoring just three and conceding 12. Their 7.6 xGA at home is the third highest, and they were blanked in two of those four games. Chelsea has kept three clean sheets in their seven games this season, and only Manchester City (five) has conceded fewer goals than Chelsea (six).
FPL Pick: Mykhailo Mudryk
Mudryk finally scored his first Chelsea goal on Monday. There hasn't been much to get excited about, but he certainly looked livelier against Fulham and had arguably his best game with the Blues. If he has finally started to settle, Mudryk could definitely see himself added to many more rosters in the coming weeks. He left Monday's game at half-time with a thigh injury, but there's hope he can start this weekend, making him a risky but potentially rewarding play.
Injuries!
❌ Saka (#ARS) -> Muscle injury - 75% chance of playing 🚑
❌ Caicedo (#CHE) -> Knock - 75% chance of playing 🚑
❌ Mudryk (#CHE) -> Thigh injury - 75% chance of playing 🚑#FPL #FPLCommunity pic.twitter.com/zogmiilF1G— FPL Updates (@FPLUpdates2) October 3, 2023
Everton (-110) vs. Bournemouth (+280) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Everton 1 - 1 Bournemouth
Everton failed to follow up their first win of the season with a positive result. They slipped up against Luton and find themselves seeking a first point at home. Bournemouth remain winless and their 4-0 loss against Arsenal on Saturday was their biggest defeat of the season.
Everton has scored just once at home this season but has a +2.8 xGD (expected goal difference) from their four home games. Bournemouth has scored four goals on their travels but also conceded eight in the three away games. There is so little between the two sides that I can't separate them.
FPL Pick: Dominic Solanke
Solanke has three goals and one assist this season. He's tallied a goal involvement in all three away games and has played 90 minutes in all seven league games. Solanke's 18 shots lead the team and he's also second on the team in shot-creating actions (15).
Fulham (-165) vs. Sheffield United (+475) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Fulham 1 - 1 Sheffield United
Fulham's loss at home to Chelsea saw their local rivals leapfrog them in the standings. It was the second straight game in which Fulham failed to score. Sheffield United recovered somewhat from their 8-0 shellacking against Newcastle. But their 2-0 loss at West Ham further highlighted their lack of quality at this level. With one point from their seven games, relegation is already looming.
Fulham has scored just once in their three home games and only found the net twice in a game just once. They had 0.6 xG in that game. Their 14.8 xGA this season is the third most despite keeping back-to-back clean sheets prior to Monday's loss. Sheffield United hasn't been overawed on their travels with two 2-1 losses prior to last weekend. I suspect they find a way to get a result on Saturday.
FPL Pick: Gustavo Hamer
Hamer is the one player who can create chances for Sheffield United. The midfielder is their top scorer with two goals while leading the team in shots (nine) and shot-creating actions (19). Statistically, he's been Sheffield United's best player and is certainly their best route to goal.
Manchester United (-145) vs. Brentford (+370) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Manchester United 1 - 2 Brentford
Manchester United keep digging themselves deeper into a hole. They have now lost three of their last four EPL games and the defeat in midweek at home to Galatasaray has left their Champions League chances hanging by a thread already. Brentford enters this weekend without a win in their last five games. They're the only team outside the top eight in the table to have scored 10 goals this season.
United's three wins this season were all by one goal and they've lost back-to-back home games after losing just once at home all of last season. Brentford's only away defeat this season came against Newcastle and was decided by a penalty. Their 2.3 xGA away from home is second only to Arsenal (2.0 xGA).
18 - Manchester United have conceded 18 goals in 10 matches in all competitions this season, their most after 10 games of a campaign since 1966-67 (20). Indeed, Sheffield United (19) are the only Premier League side who have conceded more than them this term. Fragile. pic.twitter.com/2ZeSOC4DXR
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) October 3, 2023
FPL Pick: Mathias Jensen
Manchester United has struggled massively to pick up midfield runners arriving in the box. Four of the 11 goals they've conceded this season have been scored by central midfielders. Jensen has two goals and an assist, all coming in his last four games. Jensen also takes corners and free-kicks so could exploit some defensive frailties from set-pieces.
Crystal Palace (+120) vs. Nottingham Forest (+245) - 12:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 0 - 0 Nottingham Forest
Palace's impressive win at Manchester United saw them keep a second straight clean sheet and was their third of the season. Three of their seven goals this season came in the second half against Wolves as scoring goals continues to be a struggle. It's a similar story for Forest who has scored just three goals in their last four games. They have only conceded four goals in their last four games, two of which came against Manchester City.
Both sides rank in the bottom six for xG and the top ten in xGA. Everything is pointing to a low-scoring affair and I suspect both teams end up cancelling each other out. Their two contests last season ended up 1-0 and 1-1 and that trend is certain to continue. If you believe in sequences, expect Palace to lose this game.
FPL Pick: Joachim Andersen
Andersen's 48 points leads all defenders in FPL this season. Despite being a central defender, Andersen is third on the team in shot-creating actions (18) and third in shots on target (four). His 43 passes into the opponents' final third is the tenth most in the league. His threat to score or create a goal coupled with my expectation of a clean sheet makes Andersen a solid play this week.
Sunday, October 08, 2023
Brighton (+205) vs. Liverpool (+115) - 09:00 am ET
Score prediction: Brighton 3 - 2 Liverpool
Brighton remains the team to follow if you like goals. There have been 33 goals in their seven games (most in the league) with four or more being scored in all seven of their games. Liverpool will still be smarting following last week's VAR debacle but it remains to be seen if they can harness that into a positive this weekend.
Brighton displayed their defensive frailties last week, shipping in six against Aston Villa. That was only the second time this season they had failed to score three or more in a game. That's something they did against Liverpool twice last season, beating them 3-0 at home and drawing 3-3 away. Liverpool has scored in every game this season but has only one clean sheet and none in their four away games.
FPL Pick: Kaoru Mitoma
Mitoma has three goals and three assists this season. Two of each have come at home. Last weekend was the third time he blanked this season and the previous two times, Mitoma returned to tally a goal involvement next time out. He is set to directly face off against Trent Alexander-Arnold who has well-documented defensive issues and Mitoma could easily run riot on Sunday.
West Ham United (+220) vs. Newcastle United (+110) - 09:00 am ET
Score prediction: West Ham United 1 - 1 Newcastle United
West Ham bounced back from consecutive 3-1 losses to win 2-0 last weekend. Those two losses came against Liverpool and Manchester City. Last weekend was their first clean sheet of the season. Newcastle's resurgence continues as they enter this weekend on the back of three straight wins. They also had a memorable 4-1 win at home to Paris Saint Germain on Wednesday in the Champions League.
West Ham has scored in every game this season. Newcastle's 8-0 victory at Sheffield United a fortnight ago was their first road clean sheet in 11 EPL games, dating back to last season. Manchester City and Liverpool are the only teams to have scored more than once against West Ham.
FPL Pick: Jarrod Bowen
Bowen has scored five goals this season and his 22 shots are twice as many as the second-most by a player on the team. He's had nine shots in his last two games and continues to be West Ham's key attacking player. He will certainly be Newcastle's biggest worry on Sunday.
No midfielders with over 270 mins has a higher xG/90 than Jarrod Bowen. He’s taking a good number of shots and touches in the box as the primary attacker for a West Ham side who’ve started the season strongly. pic.twitter.com/UHYnNf1MxY
— FPL Radar (@fpl_radar) October 4, 2023
Wolves (+245) vs. Aston Villa (+110) - 09:00 am ET
Score prediction: Wolves 1 - 2 Aston Villa
Wolves claimed the prized scalp of Manchester City last weekend. That was just their second win of the season and was all the more surprising after conceding seven goals in their first two home games. Villa's 6-1 win against Brighton was their third consecutive league win. Although they have scored 13 goals in their three home games, Villa has found the net just five times in their four away games.
It's a local derby which generally means a tighter game than you might expect. Wolves should be buoyed by last week's win while Villa comes into the game on a high. I expect the visitors to have enough firepower to take the three points but it should be a closer game than many expect it to be.
FPL Pick: Ollie Watkins
Watkins followed up his first goal of the season by bagging a hat-trick against Brighton. He also had two assists in the game which saw him set the highest single-game points haul this season. With ten goal involvements, Watkins is the FPL points leader (54). No one is in better form than Watkins and we should expect his hot streak to continue.
Ollie Watkins' 23-point return is the largest in a single Gameweek so far this season 🔥
Did you profit from any of these mega hauls? 😍#FPL pic.twitter.com/rVxv3nUGHw
— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) October 4, 2023
Arsenal (+195) vs. Manchester City (+145) - 11:30 am ET
Score prediction: Arsenal 1 - 3 Manchester City
Arsenal maintained their unbeaten record by beating Bournemouth 4-0. That was their third consecutive away win without conceding, but they are yet to keep a clean sheet at home. City's 100% start to the season ended last weekend. However, you need to go back to December 2018 for the last time they lost back-to-back EPL games.
Both teams look set to be without two key players (De Bruyne and Rodri for City, Martinelli and Saka for Arsenal). City is better equipped to cope with those losses and have won their last 12 EPL games against Arsenal. The aggregate score in those games is 33-5. Last season, City won both games, 3-1 and 4-1. The Community Shield win for Arsenal should give them confidence they can get something but without their two star wingers, it'll be a huge task.
FPL Pick: Erling Haaland
Many FPL managers will be apprehensive to captain Haaland this weekend. However, he scored in both fixtures last season and picked up two assists in the home game against Arsenal. Although he may only pick up one goal, he's a safer play than many think this weekend, especially given Arsenal's home defensive woes this season.
Betting Picks
The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay.
| Game | Moneyline | Over/Under 2.5 | BTTS |
| Luton 1 – 3 Tottenham | Tottenham -230 | O2.5 -180 | Yes -140 |
| Burnley 0 – 2 Chelsea | Chelsea -150 | U2.5 +100 | No +110 |
| Everton 1 – 1 Bournemouth | Draw +275 | U2.5 -105 | Yes-145 |
| Fulham 1 – 1 Sheff United | Draw +295 | U2.5 -115 | Yes -115 |
| Man United 1 – 2 Brentford | Brentford +370 | O2.5 -145 | Yes -145 |
| C. Palace 0 – 0 Notts Forest | Draw +220 | U2.5 -160 | No -115 |
| Brighton 3 – 2 Liverpool | Brighton +205 | O2.5 -300 | Yes -320 |
| West Ham 1 – 1 Newcastle | Draw +270 | U2.5 +110 | Yes -175 |
| Wolves 1 – 2 A. Villa | A. Villa +110 | O2.5 -130 | Yes -170 |
| Arsenal 1 – 3 Man City | Man City +145 | O2.5 -120 | Yes -170 |
| Season totals | 39/70 | 42/70 | 41/70 |
| Season parlays | 1/7 (-3.24u) | 1/7 (-0.70u) | 3/7 (+7.24u) |
Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
