EPL Betting Picks and FPL Game Previews for Matchday 21 Part 2: English Premier League

January 18, 2024

Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchday 21 of the 2023/24 season, starting on 1/20/2024. He previews each game from the English Premier League; picking bets, analyzing the FPL impacts, and looking at the best options for your lineups.

The EPL season rolls on and so does the coverage from the RotoBaller soccer team. We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game, along with a score prediction, and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.

The second part of Matchday 21 gets underway early on Saturday and hopefully, we have a similar performance to last weekend. Four correct results, four correct over/under picks, and four correct both teams to score plays (five games) made it a sweet return after a short break. We also bagged some nice FPL plays along with it. As FPL teams locked last Friday, this week's picks have an element of future games, DFS, and props to them as well.

We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller, too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content on top of the weekly preview and betting content, which can be found if you click here. Follow the team on X (@EuanFPL, @LucidMediaDFS, @df_solutions, @BellRoto, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.

Saturday, January 20, 2024

Arsenal (-320) vs. Crystal Palace (+800) - 7:30 a.m. ET

Score prediction: Arsenal 3 – 0 Crystal Palace

The week off came at the perfect time for Arsenal. Three consecutive defeats in all competitions and a seemingly complete lack of confidence in front of goal have seen them slip away from the top of the table. Palace are experiencing a bit of an injury crisis in attack. They have scored eight goals in their last five EPL games, but blanked in back-to-back FA Cup games since their last league game.

I'm banking on Arsenal rediscovering their form in front of goal. I'd be more concerned if they weren't creating any chances. If they score early, the pressure will ease and I'd expect them to run out comfortable winners. Palace will look to frustrate them and if they can keep a clean sheet for the first 30 minutes, they could easily take something from the game. I'd rather bank on the former happening given the quality attacking options Arsenal have.

Arsenal’s record in front of goal in their last 3 games:

🥅 61 shots
🎯 16 shots on target
❎ 6.47xG
⚽ 1 goal

🤯🤯🤯 pic.twitter.com/HcSklockcd

— Statman Dave (@StatmanDave) January 7, 2024

FPL Pick: Martin Ødegaard

During Arsenal's profligate spell in front of goal, the captain has been the one creating most of their chances. The Gunners have scored four goals in their last five EPL games and Ødegaard has just one assist to show for it. That's despite having 14 shots, 41 shot-creating actions, and 2.74 xGI (expected goal involvements). He's Arsenal's likeliest provider to help end their scoring woes.

Brentford (-105) vs. Nottingham Forest (+280) - 12:30 p.m. ET

Score prediction: Brentford 1 – 1 Nottingham Forest

Five straight defeats have left Brentford just three points above the relegation zone. They've failed to score more than one goal in seven of their last eight games and have now gone nine games without a clean sheet. Forest's managerial change seems to have had the desired effect, winning back-to-back league games for the first time this season.  They've also scored seven goals in the three league games under Espírito Santo, having scored 17 in their first 17 games of the season.

I don't see Brentford losing a sixth straight game and they should be boosted by the returning Ivan Toney (more on him shortly). Brentford's xGD suggests they have been massively unlucky, something which should change soon. With the two sides separated by one point, they will likely both settle for a share of the spoils. Brentford will end their losing streak, and Forest will keep above them. Sounds like the perfect recipe for a draw.

FPL Pick: Ivan Toney

Toney returns this weekend after his suspension for breaking rules regarding gambling. It hasn't come a moment too soon with Brentford struggling for goals and in desperate need of a spark. I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if he scores on his return, but don't expect too much so soon. He's not played a competitive game in over eight months, so there will inevitably be some rust. Toney is still capable of scoring 10 goals over the remainder of the season.

Who's backing Ivan Toney to recapture last seasons scintillating form? 🔥#FPL #BrentfordFC pic.twitter.com/YigrRFysf7

— Fantasy Football Hub (@FFH_HQ) January 16, 2024

Sunday, January 21, 2024

Sheffield United (+240) vs. West Ham United (+115) - 9:00 a.m. ET

Score prediction: Sheffield United 0 – 1 West Ham United

Sheffield United have taken one point from their last four games and now find themselves adrift at the foot of the table. They need to start picking up wins soon, otherwise an immediate return to the Championship is inevitable. West Ham were bounced out of the FA Cup in midweek, courtesy of Championship side Bristol City. Since losing 5-0 to Fulham, they've not conceded a goal in the league (four games).

Injuries and international duty have left West Ham short in the attacking areas. They've reverted to a more defensive style in recent games, unable to create as many chances as before. That is set to continue and they will fancy keeping a fifth consecutive EPL clean sheet against the lowest scorers at home. Sheffield United have scored just 10 goals in their 10 games at Bramall Lane while shipping in 24.

0 goals for West Ham in the last 256 minutes played without Paqueta 🇧🇷 #FPL

— Harry (@FPL_Harry) January 16, 2024

FPL Pick: Tomáš Souček

In the absence of many attacking options, expect the Czech international Souček to be deployed in an advanced role. He's an aerial threat and has a knack for scoring, something he's done five times in the league this season. He scored in the reverse fixture and with set-pieces likely to be a focal point for The Hammers, James Ward-Prowse getting a goal involvement is also a strong play. The two combining makes them a nice stack.

Bournemouth (+320) vs. Liverpool  (-140) - 11:30 a.m. ET

Score prediction: Bournemouth 1 – 2 Liverpool

Bournemouth's turnaround has been remarkable. After picking up just three points in their first nine games this season, they've taken 22 points from their last 10 games. This weekend begins a huge stretch of games for Liverpool. They have five games across three competitions in the next two weeks, including league games against Chelsea and Arsenal. And they will need to navigate them without top scorer Mo Salah.

As impressive as Bournemouth's form has been, the three sides they've failed to beat in their last 10 games are all teams currently in the top five of the table. They've conceded a total of 20 goals in the six games against the current top five this season. Their opponents have scored at least two in all six of those games and while I don't expect an easy win (especially without Salah), Liverpool should still take home all three points.

FPL Pick: Curtis Jones

Jones will be keen to maintain his recent form to help fill in for the absent Salah. His four goals in all competitions have come in his last six games, in which he's totaled 18 shots. Jones has averaged 73 minutes of playing time in his last six games (five starts) compared to 53 minutes in his previous 15 games (nine starts). He's been publicly praised by manager Jürgen Klopp and the extra trust placed on him looks like it's helped the upturn in his form.

Curtis Jones has taken his game to another level. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/OYVX8Jceig

— DaveOCKOP (@DaveOCKOP) January 11, 2024

Monday, January 22, 2024

Brighton (-155) vs. Wolves (+390) - 2:45 p.m. ET

Score prediction: Brighton 2 – 1 Wolves

Brighton's form has dipped in recent weeks, with just 15 points from their last 11 games. They have only lost twice since Matchday 10, but too many draws have seen them slide into mid-table. Wolves have won their last three league games and scored nine goals in the process. A big win on Monday could see them leapfrog Brighton in the table. That seems unlikely given they've yet to beat a side currently in the top 10 away from home.

While these two teams have differing form, it's important to look at their seasons in context. As mentioned, Wolves' away form against good sides is poor, albeit in a small sample. They have lost all three games away at sides currently in the top 10, with an aggregate score of 6-1. Brighton are unbeaten at home against sides in the bottom half of the table with three wins and three draws. They conceded one goal in each of those fixtures.

FPL Pick: Pervis Estupiñán

Brighton's injuries this season have forced them into playing makeshift full-backs. So the recent return of Estupiñán has been a big boost to them. He fits into their attacking style perfectly and he bagged six FPL points in each of his last two games since returning from injury. Despite only making seven league appearances this season, Estupiñán has five goal involvements. That's a rate most forwards would envy.

Back-to-back returns for Pervis Estupinan since his return from injury 💥

He ranks third among defenders for points per match, behind only Trent Alexander-Arnold and Kieran Trippier 😮‍💨 pic.twitter.com/Na4ymGZ1aK

— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) January 3, 2024

Betting Picks

The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay (which I will be playing and tracking).

Given we only have five games this weekend with the other five being played last weekend, I am not doing the usual three parlays (one for each bet type). However, I have still picked out my favorite play for each game so we can build a five-game parlay using those if we so choose.

Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!

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