EPL Betting Picks and FPL Game Previews for Matchday 21 Part 1: English Premier League

January 11, 2024

Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchday 21 of the 2023/24 season, starting on 1/12/2024. He previews each game from the English Premier League; picking bets, analyzing the FPL impacts, and looking at the best options for your lineups.

The EPL season rolls on and so does the coverage from the RotoBaller soccer team. We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game, along with a score prediction, and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.

Matchday 20 was an unfortunate one for us, with all three parlays missing by one goal. Matchday 21 is an unusual one with 10 games split over two weekends. All 20 teams still play, with five matches this weekend and the other five next weekend. As a result, the previews will be split in two so we're not trying to predict games that are 10 or more days away.

We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller, too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content on top of the weekly preview and betting content, which can be found if you click here. Follow the team on X (@EuanFPL, @LucidMediaDFS, @df_solutions, @BellRoto, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.

Friday, January 12, 2024

Burnley (-105) vs. Luton Town (+295) - 2:45 p.m. ET

Score prediction: Burnley 1 – 1 Luton Town

Burnley have lost nine of their 10 home games so far. Their one victory at Turf Moor came against fellow newly promoted side Sheffield United. That game also accounted for half of their home goals scored this season. Luton have been solid at home, but struggled more on the road. They beat Sheffield United away on their last travels, but that ended a three-game losing streak away from Kenilworth Road.

Luton have scored in five of their last six away games, but also failed to keep an away clean sheet. Their 23.0 xGA (expected goals against) away from home is the second-most in the league. Burnley are at risk of becoming detached from the teams they are battling with to stay up. Burnley won the reverse fixture 2-1 and also won and drew against Luton in the Championship last season. I expect it to be a close game with a draw likely.

FPL Pick: Alfie Doughty

Only two players have created more chances from set-pieces than Doughty this season and Burnley's conceded the joint second-most goals from dead-ball situations. Doughty has also tallied more shot-creating actions (58) than any other Luton player. That's also the 26th-most in the entire EPL and fourth-most among all defenders. The 10 bonus points Doughty has in FPL ranks sixth at the position. He has multiple routes to providing a solid return.

🎯 Most chances created from set-pieces in the Premier League this season:

🥇 Trent Alexander-Arnold / James Ward-Prowse - 20
🥈 Alfie Doughty / Pascal Gross - 18
🥉 Kieran Trippier - 17
🏅 Julián Álvarez - 15
🏅 Bruno Fernandes / Andreas Pereira - 14 pic.twitter.com/jDtnOkSylj

— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) January 8, 2024

Saturday, January 13, 2024

Chelsea (-175) vs. Fulham (+450) - 7:30 a.m. ET

Score prediction: Chelsea 3 – 0 Fulham

Chelsea's Jekyll and Hyde season is showing no signs of ending. Back-to-back league wins were followed by comfortable progression in the FA Cup. Then in midweek, they lost their first leg of the League Cup semi-final to Championship side Middlesbrough. Fulham ended a three-game losing streak without scoring by upsetting Arsenal. That was their sixth home win of the season, but they have only one victory on their travels, which came on the opening weekend of the season.

Fulham's struggled away from Craven Cottage, picking up just six points from 10 games. That's the third-fewest and their nine away goals scored are the joint second-fewest. They have also conceded the joint second-most away goals (23). Chelsea's form has been inconsistent, but they have won their last three home games and scored 11 goals in their last four games at Stamford Bridge. Fulham's conceded 13 goals in their last four away games.

FPL Pick: Cole Palmer

Palmer is this week's most transferred-in player. While that hasn't generally been a good omen this season, Palmer can buck the trend. He has been very boom-or-bust lately, with 32 of his 34 points in his last four appearances coming in two games. He picked up an assist in the reverse fixture earlier this season and in a game I expect Chelsea to win comfortably, he is certainly one of the most viable captain options this weekend.

Newcastle United (+450) vs. Manchester City (-180) - 12:30 p.m. ET

Score prediction: Newcastle United 1 – 3 Manchester City

Newcastle eased the pressure on manager Eddie Howe with their FA Cup win over rivals Sunderland. But their league form has been poor, with three consecutive defeats and five losses in their last six EPL games. Manchester City have won their two league games comfortably since returning from Saudi Arabia. They dispatched Huddersfield Town with ease in the FA Cup and they look like they're about to embark on a lengthy winning run.

Newcastle did lose their last home game, but have won eight of their 10 matches at St James' Park. They've still got a few players sidelined, but the injury crisis has diminished somewhat. The issue is their form and facing the recently crowned World Club Champions isn't ideal. City looks like they're rounding into form like they always do this time of year. An away win appears to be on the cards here.

FPL Pick: Julian Alvarez

With Erling Haaland sidelined, Alvarez has been deployed as City's main striker. He's scored in City's previous two league games and each of their last four games in all competitions. He's now got 14 goal involvements in the EPL, half of which have come away from home. Alvarez scored in the reverse fixture and he appears to be City's likeliest goalscorer again this weekend.

Sunday, January 14, 2024

Everton (+180) vs. Aston Villa (+140) - 9:00 a.m. ET

Score prediction: Everton 1 – 1 Aston Villa

After an upturn in form following their 10-point deduction, Everton have now lost their last three league games. They could find themselves in the relegation zone by kick-off with ownership and financial uncertainty continuing to plague the club. Villa got back to winning ways with their hard-fought win against Burnley. Things have been much more of a grind recently as they haven't won by more than one goal in eight games.

Villa boasts the league's best home record. Away from home, their form is sketchy with an equal number of wins, draws, and losses in their last six away games. They have scored two in each of their last four games away from Villa Park, but also have just one clean sheet on their travels (10 games). Everton's home form hasn't been great, but they do have 10 points from their last six home games.

FPL Pick: Jack Harrison

Harrison is an ideal differential for your FPL teams (0.2% rostered). Everton are set to be without Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Abdoulaye Doucouré this weekend and need someone like Harrison to stand up and be counted. He has five goal involvements (13 starts) and will likely face off against Alex Moreno. In Moreno's only two EPL starts for Villa this season, right-sided midfielders have a goal and an assist. Harrison is primed to take advantage.

Manchester United (+115) vs. Tottenham Hotspur (+205) - 11:30 a.m. ET

Score prediction: Manchester United 1 – 2 Tottenham Hotspur

Manchester United have now won just once in their last five EPL games. They needed to come from two goals down to do so. They also have just 4.8 xG in those five games. Tottenham have been riding their luck a bit this season. But they continue to score goals, having found the net in every game. There's been a total of 20 goals in their last five away games.

Only three teams have a worse goal difference at home than Manchester United (-3). They've kept just two clean sheets at home (10 games) and have conceded two or more five times. The fact Scott McTominay is their leading scorer in the league tells us everything we need to know. Tottenham's 22 goals scored away from home leads the league. They have let in 10 goals in their last five away games, so United should still find the net.

FPL Pick: Dejan Kulusevski

Kulusevski has been Tottenham's most creative player this season, although he only has two assists to show for it. With Son Heung-min away at the Asia Cup and James Maddison still sidelined, he'll need to carry more of the burden this month. His 82 shot-creating actions are the seventh-most in the league and given United's leaky defense in big games, Kulusevski should be able to benefit this weekend.

Betting Picks

The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay (which I will be playing and tracking).

Given we only have five games this weekend and the other five next weekend, I am not doing the usual three parlays (one for each bet type). However, I have still picked out my favorite play for each game so we can build a five-game parlay using those if we so choose.

Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!

More Betting and DFS Picks