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The EPL season rolls on and so does the coverage from the RotoBaller soccer team. We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game, along with a score prediction, and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
It wasn't a great festive period for us with no parlays hitting and some shock scorelines not helping our picks. There's no time to breathe with less than 48 hours between Matchday 19 ending and Matchday 20 starting. Things settle down after the New Year, so we'll look to have a solid end to 2023/start to 2024 and go again in 10 days.
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller, too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content on top of the weekly preview and betting content, which can be found if you click here. Follow the team on X (@EuanFPL, @LucidMediaDFS, @df_solutions, @BellRoto, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.
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Saturday, December 30, 2023
Luton Town (+450) vs. Chelsea (-170) - 7:30 am ET
Score prediction: Luton Town 1 – 1 Chelsea
Back-to-back wins have left Luton with a chance to move out of the relegation zone with a win here. All nine of Luton's home games have been decided by no more than one goal. Chelsea continues to blow hot and cold. They could win this 3-0 as easily as they could lose it by the same scoreline. They've now conceded 10 goals in their last four away games.
FPL Pick: Alfie Doughty
Readers of the FPL Roundtable will know of my love for Doughty. The Luton full-back scored his first goal of the season to go with his three assists. His 53 shot-creating actions are the 32nd-most in the league and fifth-most among defenders. He's picked up four bonus points in his last four games, so he has plenty of routes to a decent points haul, especially as a primary set-piece taker as well.
Find someone who loves you as much as @Baseball_Jimbo loves Alfie Doughty after his great call in this week’s @RotoBaller #FPL preview pic.twitter.com/lKVqx48H3y
— Euan Leith (@EuanFPL) December 27, 2023
Aston Villa (-270) vs. Burnley (+700) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Aston Villa 3 – 0 Burnley
Villa blew their shot at topping the table, but now return home where they've picked up 25 points from a possible 27. They are averaging 2.89 goals per game at home. Burnley's eight away goals are joint second-fewest in the league. They've blanked in three of their nine away games and scored more than one goal in a game just twice on their travels.
FPL Pick: Ollie Watkins
Watkins has blanked in back-to-back games for the second time since Matchday 15. He's not gone three consecutive games without a goal involvement all season. He's got arguably the most fantasy-friendly schedule over the next three months, so if you've been thinking of ousting him, I'd be reconsidering.
Crystal Palace (+130) vs. Brentford (+230) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1 – 0 Brentford
Palace's midweek defeat means they've now gone eight games without a win. They've had a very difficult run of games and only lost one of those eight games by more than a goal. Brentford goes into this weekend on the back of a four-game losing streak. They've blanked three times in their last seven games and only scored more than once in one of those fixtures.
FPL Pick: Michael Olise
Since returning from injury, Olise has scored three goals and had one assist (six starts). Three straight games with a goal involvement coming into this weekend and on the back of a performance like he had on Wednesday makes Olise a great option. He's still rostered by less than 1% of FPL managers and with the African Cup of Nations looming, he's an ideal replacement for your midfield.
SCOUT: A goal from Michael Olise (£5.8m) means he has produced attacking returns in three successive Gameweeks 3️⃣
He had six shots in the box against Chelsea, the most he’s ever recorded in a Premier League match 🦅#FPL #CHECRY pic.twitter.com/XNVaDjHwLh
— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) December 27, 2023
Manchester City (-1200) vs. Sheffield United (+2200) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Manchester City 4 – 0 Sheffield United
City returned from Saudi Arabia as the World Club Champions and got their title bid back on track. They had drawn four of their previous six games (one win and one defeat). Sheffield United's defeat against Luton led to new (old) manager Chris Wilder questioning his players. Given they've picked up just two points on their travels (nine games) and have the worst offensive (five goals) and defensive record (23 goals), they could be in for a hiding.
FPL Pick: Bernardo Silva
With Jeremy Doku, Kevin de Bruyne, and Erling Haaland out, Silva has stepped into a more attacking role. It's something he always used to do and he's having success again. Two goals and an assist in his last three games have taken his goal involvement tally to nine this season. Expect him to reach double-digits this weekend and being on just 3.5% of FPL rosters also makes him an ideal differential play.
Bernardo Silva's game by numbers vs. Everton:
38 passes in final third
7 touches in opp. box
6 crosses
5x possession won
3x duels won
2 chances created
2 shots
1 shot on target
1 goal
1 assistWhat a finish. 😍#EVEMCI pic.twitter.com/4AKfGpikXi
— Squawka Live (@Squawka_Live) December 27, 2023
Wolves (+165) vs. Everton (+175) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Wolves 2 – 1 Everton
Wolves continued their impressive recent run on Wednesday. They've taken 10 points from their last five games and are unbeaten in their last seven home games (four games and three draws). After four consecutive wins without conceding a goal, Everton have lost their last two games while shipping in five goals. They've only had four away games against the current top 12 in the table, losing three of them.
FPL Pick: Mario Lemina
Wolves will need to cope without top scorer Hwang Hee-chan in the coming weeks. Matheus Cunha has gone three games without a goal, so someone will need to step up if Wolves are to continue their solid run of form. Lemina looks like being that person. A goal in consecutive games accompanied by five bonus points has made Lemina one of the biggest points scorers over the festive period.
Tempted by the goals of Mario Lemina or the assists of Pablo Sarabia? 🐺
With Hwang Hee-chan leaving for the Asian Cup soon, both of these budget @Wolves midfielders could be worth keeping an eye on in #FPL... 👀 pic.twitter.com/rB4PQwH0vz
— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) December 28, 2023
Nottingham Forest (+210) vs. Manchester United (+125) - 12:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 2 – 1 Manchester United
Forest's comeback at Newcastle was their first win since Matchday 11. Since taking charge, Nuno Espirito Santo has Forest firing with five goals in two games. That's after scoring just one in their prior four games. Manchester United's comeback at home to Villa seemed to paper over some cracks. Only Sheffield United (five) have scored fewer away goals than Manchester United and it's still difficult to trust them.
FPL Pick: Anthony Elanga
If you believe in the 'facing his former team' narrative, Elanga is a great play. If we look at his performances since Espirito Santo took over, he's an even better play. It's only been two games but Elanga has a goal and two assists. He's led the team in shots (eight) and touches in the opponents' penalty area (13) over their last two games as well.
Anthony Elanga - Premier League 23/24:
☑️19 games
⚽️4 goals
🅰️5 assists
📈3.05 xG
📊2.44 xA
⏱️directly involved in a goal every 142 minutesRevival. 🇸🇪 pic.twitter.com/40jQVN36C4
— Football Talent Scout - Jacek Kulig (@FTalentScout) December 27, 2023
Sunday, December 31, 2023
Fulham (+500) vs. Arsenal (-180) - 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: Fulham 0 – 2 Arsenal
Fulham lost a third straight game without scoring and will still be without joint top scorer Raúl Jiménez, as he finishes his suspension. Only twice in Fulham's nine home games have both teams scored. Arsenal suffered a surprising defeat against West Ham. Their previous two defeats this season were followed by a two-goal win and they've not dropped points away from home to a team currently in the bottom half of the table.
FPL Pick: Kai Havertz
Havertz returns from suspension this weekend and Arsenal missed him in midweek. He's been chipping in with goals and injuries have left Arsenal without an obvious replacement for Havertz. It shouldn't come as a shock if he gets himself on the scoresheet again to end the year. The Gunners misfired in midweek and could do with Havertz keeping up his recent solid run in front of goal.
77 - Arsenal had 77 touches in the opposition box against West Ham; the most on record (since 2008-09) in a single Premier League match for a team who failed to score. Blockage. pic.twitter.com/5bw9P8zGHo
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) December 28, 2023
Tottenham Hotspur (-140) vs. Bournemouth (+320) - 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: Tottenham Hotspur 3 – 2 Bournemouth
The 4-2 scoreline in Tottenham's loss on Thursday flattered them. They've now kept just one clean sheet in their last 10 games, but it was the fourth consecutive match in which they've scored at least twice. It's a similar story for Bournemouth, with seven straight games in which they've scored at least two goals. They're unbeaten in that stretch, but only three teams have conceded more away games than The Cherries (20). Expect goals!
Tottenham's leaky defence 🌧️
Since the start of November, Tottenham have conceded 19 goals.
No Premier League team has conceded more in that time.#BBCFootball #BHATOT pic.twitter.com/HpQfdR5F0Q
— Match of the Day (@BBCMOTD) December 28, 2023
FPL Pick: Brennan Johnson
With Dejan Kulusevski suspended for this game, there will be reliance on Johnson to provide service. He picked up a pair of assists against Everton in Tottenham's last home game and a similar return isn't out of the question this week. This should be Son Heung-min's last game before heading off to the Asia Cup and Johnson could be a nice replacement for the next few games.
Monday, January 1, 2024
Liverpool (-225) vs. Newcastle United (+550) - 3:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Liverpool 2 – 1 Newcastle United
Liverpool returned to winning ways after consecutive draws. They remain unbeaten at home this season, scoring 22 goals and conceding only six at Anfield (nine games). Only five of Newcastle's 29 points this season have come away from home. They've also conceded 14 goals in their last six away games and scored just one in the last four.
Newcastle have failed to register a win in their last 7 away games across all competitions 😬
Struggling on the road. pic.twitter.com/dgI1SIVKjW
— Football on TNT Sports (@footballontnt) December 23, 2023
FPL Pick: Mo Salah
Salah will depart for the African Cup of Nations after Monday's game. He'll want to leave on the back of a match-winning display and with only 13 points in his last three games, FPL managers will want that too. He's failed to score in his last four EPL games against Newcastle but has four assists in the last three games against them.
Tuesday, January 2, 2024
West Ham United (+130) vs. Brighton (+190) - 2:30 pm ET
Score prediction: West Ham United 3 – 1 Brighton
West Ham picked up a memorable win against Arsenal. The 5-0 defeat against Fulham on Matchday 16 is the only blemish on West Ham's record recently. They've taken 19 points from the last eight games. Brighton also had a memorable win on Thursday. Two late Tottenham goals shouldn't have taken the shine off their win, although it was only the third victory in their last 13 EPL games.
FPL Pick: Jarrod Bowen
West Ham's reliance on Bowen will be even greater in the coming weeks. Mohammed Kudus is jetting off to represent Ghana in the African Cup of Nations and Lucas Paqueta left Thursday's game early with an injury. Bowen's somewhat controversial assist against Arsenal means he's registered a goal involvement in four of his last five games and his 108 points rank him third among all midfielders.
Jarrod Bowen has registered 13 goals and assists so far in the Premier League this season. Only 4 players have more.
Bowen’s on fire. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/KiZtC5g4p0
— Statman Dave (@StatmanDave) December 28, 2023
Betting Picks
The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay (which I will be playing and tracking).
| Game | Moneyline | Over/Under 2.5 | BTTS |
| Luton 1 – 1 Chelsea | Draw +340 | U2.5 +120 | Yes -140 |
| A. Villa 3 – 0 Burnley | A. Villa -270 | O2.5 -175 | No -105 |
| C. Palace 1 – 0 Brentford | C. Palace +130 | U2.5 -145 | No -105 |
| Man City 4 – 0 Sheff United | Man City -1200 | O2.5 -320 | No -190 |
| Wolves 2 – 1 Everton | Wolves +165 | O2.5 +105 | Yes -130 |
| Notts Forest 2 – 1 Man United | Notts Forest +210 | O2.5 -135 | Yes -170 |
| Fulham 0 – 2 Arsenal | Arsenal -180 | U2.5 +110 | No +105 |
| Tottenham 3 – 2 Bournemouth | Tottenham -140 | O2.5 -255 | Yes -240 |
| Liverpool 2 – 1 Newcastle | Liverpool -225 | O2.5 -230 | Yes -175 |
| West Ham 3 – 1 Brighton | West Ham +130 | O2.5 -165 | Yes -200 |
| Season totals | 95/188 | 100/188 | 106/188 |
| Season parlays | 2/19 (-11.27u) | 5/19 (+9.77u) | 7/19 (+17.99u) |
Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
