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Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchday 19 of the 2023/24 season, starting on 12/26/2023. He previews each game from the English Premier League; picking bets, analyzing the FPL impacts, and looking at the best options for your lineups.
The EPL season rolls on and so does the coverage from the RotoBaller soccer team. We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game, along with a score prediction, and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
We've reached the midway point of the season (barring a couple of games that need to be made up). And considering the games begin on Boxing Day (so this is written over Christmas), it's a very abbreviated version. We're still predicting every game and offering an FPL pick for each. The research hasn't dropped, just the write-up with brevity being in order this Matchday.
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller, too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content on top of the weekly preview and betting content, which can be found if you click here. Follow the team on X (@LucidMediaDFS, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, @BellRoto, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.
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Tuesday, December 26, 2023
Newcastle United (-200) vs. Nottingham Forest (+550) - 7:30 am ET
Score prediction: Newcastle United 2 – 0 Nottingham Forest
Newcastle's home record is significantly better than their away record. Only two teams have picked up fewer points on their travels than Forest (five). Only one team has scored fewer away goals (seven).
FPL Pick: Alexander Isak
Isak returned from his recent injury, coming off the bench on Saturday. He should be fit enough to start and will look to add to his seven goals scored so far this season.
Bournemouth (+135) vs. Fulham (+215) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Bournemouth 2 – 1 Fulham
Bournemouth stretched their unbeaten run to six games (five wins and one draw). Fulham's blanked in back-to-back games after scoring 16 goals in their previous four.
FPL Pick: Dominic Solanke
Saturday's hat-trick hero is the hottest forward in FPL right now and now gets to face the joint second-worst defense on their travels.
Dominic Solanke now has eight 8 in his last 7 appearances for Bournemouth!
Absolutely remarkable form! 🔥 pic.twitter.com/QI6ji4Y70D
— Footy Accumulators (@FootyAccums) December 23, 2023
Sheffield United (+145) vs. Luton Town (+200) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Sheffield United 1 – 0 Luton Town
Sheffield United picked up their fourth point in three games since appointing Chris Wilder as manager. Luton continues to look solid at home but has the league's second-worst away record (four points).
FPL Pick: Gustavo Hamer
Hamer came off the bench to assist United's goal on Friday. He'll be in line to start on Boxing Day in what will likely be a more attacking lineup.
Burnley (+700) vs. Liverpool (-265) - 12:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Burnley 1 – 3 Liverpool
Burnley won for the third time but possesses the league's worst home record (three points). Liverpool's attack hasn't quite been clicking but they should still have too much for the team with the most home goals conceded (22).
FPL Pick: Trent Alexander-Arnold
Alexander-Arnold picked up his third assist in his last five games. He also hit the crossbar on Saturday and continues to be Liverpool's best source for creating chances.
Manchester United (+165) vs. Aston Villa (+160) - 3:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Manchester United 1 – 2 Aston Villa
United's season keeps getting worse and they failed to score for a third consecutive EPL game. Villa's perfect home record was ended and their away record isn't as good. But they've still picked up the sixth-most away points (14).
Manchester United haven’t scored in over six hours. Goalless in their last four games in all competitions and just 18 Premier League goals this season. 13 defeats now in total, the most before Christmas since 1930.😬 pic.twitter.com/dYk8eMTGsY
— Ben Jacobs (@JacobsBen) December 23, 2023
FPL Pick: Leon Bailey
Bailey's four-game stretch of having a goal involvement ended. While he isn't guaranteed to start, he's still got five goals and five assists from just six starts this season.
Wednesday, December 27, 2023
Brentford (-105) vs. Wolves (+290) - 2:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Brentford 1 – 1 Wolves
Brentford lost for a third straight game, all by just one goal. Wolves have only picked up seven points from nine away games and this game looks too evenly contested to have a winner.
FPL Pick: Pablo Sarabia
Sarabia has started Wolves' last four games and has two assists in that stretch. Pedro Neto is nearing a return from injury but Sarabia is justifying having a regular place in the starting lineup.
Chelsea (-145) vs. Crystal Palace (+390) - 2:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Chelsea 1 – 1 Crystal Palace
Following Christmas Eve's defeat at Wolves, no team has lost more EPL games in 2023 than Chelsea. Palace have gone seven games without a win. They've drawn three of those games and only lost by more than one goal once.
No team has lost more Premier League games in 2023 than Chelsea (19). 🤯
Reminder: they spent £1bn on signings this year. pic.twitter.com/aWBig5eUZA
— Squawka (@Squawka) December 24, 2023
FPL Pick: Christopher Nkunku
Chelsea are desperate for a consistent goalscorer. Nkunku's return from injury could come just in time. He scored a debut goal off the bench on Sunday and could help fill a hole Chelsea so desperately need him to do.
Everton (+500) vs. Manchester City (-180) - 3:15 pm ET
Score prediction: Everton 1 – 2 Manchester City
Everton's three home wins this season all came when keeping a clean sheet, something I don't see them doing this week. City head back from Saudi Arabia after winning the World Club Championship. They've played the same number of games as Everton over the last 10 days, so they shouldn't be any more fatigued like some suggest.
FPL Pick: Rodri
All of City's defeats have come when Rodri didn't play. He had a scary moment at the World Club Championship but escaped a serious injury and should be fine to start on Wednesday.
Thursday, December 28, 2023
Brighton (+145) vs. Tottenham Hotspur (+155) - 2:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Brighton 2 – 3 Tottenham Hotspur
Brighton's now won just twice in their last 12 EPL games. They've yet to keep a clean sheet this season. Tottenham have been riding their luck a bit but have won three straight and scored in every game this season.
FPL Pick: Son Heung-min
Son has three goals and three assists in his last five games. He's been boom or bust with five double-digit hauls and four games scoring just two points in his last 10 games. This is a chance for another boom.
Arsenal (-290) vs. West Ham United (+700) - 3:15 pm ET
Score prediction: Arsenal 2 – 1 West Ham United
Arsenal's draw at Liverpool ensured they would be top at Christmas. They're one of four teams unbeaten at home. West Ham have picked up 16 points from their last seven games. They have also conceded the second-most away goals (20) in the league.
No team has lost more Premier League games in 2023 than Chelsea (19). 🤯
Reminder: they spent £1bn on signings this year. pic.twitter.com/aWBig5eUZA
— Squawka (@Squawka) December 24, 2023
FPL Pick: Martin Ødegaard
The Arsenal skipper has started to look back near his best following a couple of injury issues earlier this season. He got a second assist in his last four games on Saturday and had two assists in this fixture last season.
Betting Picks
The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay (which I will be playing and tracking).
| Game | Moneyline | Over/Under 2.5 | BTTS |
| Newcastle 2 – 0 N. Forest | Newcastle -200 | U2.5 +105 | No -110 |
| Bournemouth 2 – 1 Fulham | Bournemouth +125 | O2.5 -135 | Yes -170 |
| Sheff United 1 – 0 Luton | Sheff Utd +145 | U2.5 -135 | No +100 |
| Burnley 1 – 3 Liverpool | Liverpool -265 | O2.5 -210 | Yes -150 |
| Man United 1 – 2 A. Villa | A. Villa +160 | O2.5 -160 | Yes -195 |
| Brentford 1 – 1 Wolves | Draw +255 | U2.5 -120 | Yes -135 |
| Chelsea 1 – 1 C. Palace | Draw +285 | U2.5 -115 | Yes -125 |
| Everton 1 – 2 Man City | Man City -180 | O2.5 -135 | Yes -130 |
| Brighton 2 – 3 Tottenham | Tottenham +155 | O2.5 -230 | Yes -250 |
| Arsenal 2 – 1 West Ham | Arsenal -290 | O2.5 -175 | Yes -115 |
| Season totals | 92/178 | 96/178 | 101/178 |
| Season parlays | 2/18 (-10.27u) | 5/18 (+10.77u) | 7/18 (+18.99u) |
Wishing you all a very Merry Christmas. Make sure to spend as much time with your loved ones as possible. Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
