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Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchday 18 of the 2023/24 season, starting on 12/21/2023. He previews each game from the English Premier League; picking bets, analyzing the FPL impacts, and looking at the best options for your lineups.
The EPL season rolls on and so does the coverage from the RotoBaller soccer team. We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game, along with a score prediction, and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
We came up dry last weekend. One more goal in the Arsenal and Brighton game would've bagged us a parlay and so would a Wolves goal. But we head into the Christmas weekend on the back of a losing week. There are only nine fixtures on Matchday 18 due to Manchester City's participation in the World Club Championship, so one less fixture to contend with.
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller, too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content on top of the weekly preview and betting content, which can be found if you click here. Follow the team on X (@LucidMediaDFS, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, @BellRoto, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.
Thursday, December 21, 2023
Crystal Palace (+240) vs. Brighton (+120) - 3:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1 – 1 Brighton
Palace picked up a memorable point at Manchester City on Saturday. But that was their sixth consecutive game without a win. Brighton barely laid a glove on Arsenal last time out, as their European campaign has started to take a toll. They've now won just one of their last six away games.
Five of the last eight meetings between these two ended in a 1-1 draw. Only Burnley (three) have taken fewer points at home than Palace (five). Brighton concedes on average 2.25 goals per game away from home. This feels like another game between the two in which the points are shared. This is a rivalry many neutrals don't understand but a very real one nonetheless.
FPL Pick: Michael Olise
Olise scored Palace's injury-time penalty to take a point at Manchester City. It was Olise's second goal in four starts since returning from a lengthy injury layoff. With Eberechi Eze also returning, it'll be interesting to see the two combine with Olise best served to take advantage of Brighton's lack of fit full-backs.
Friday, December 22, 2023
Aston Villa (-500) vs. Sheffield United (+1100) - 3:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Aston Villa 3 – 0 Sheffield United
Villa possesses the only 100% home record in the league. They're averaging more than three goals a game at home despite their last two wins being 1-0. Sheffield United have taken one point on their travels (eight games), the fewest in the league. They have the fewest goals scored (four) and most goals conceded (22) away from home.
Even with a new manager, Sheffield United didn't trouble Chelsea and have now scored just one goal in their last four games. As well as scoring bucket loads at home, Villa have kept three clean sheets and no side has scored more than one at Villa Park. A comfortable home win is in order.
FPL Pick: Ollie Watkins
After blanking in Villa's previous two wins, Watkins helped himself to nine points last weekend. He could overtake Erling Haaland as FPL's leading striker with a goal this week and there's no easier opposition on paper to do so against. He's excelled under Unai Emery and Watkins is a leading captain option this week.
Saturday, December 23, 2023
West Ham United (+140) vs. Manchester United (+175) - 7:30 am ET
Score prediction: West Ham United 1 – 0 Manchester United
West Ham put their 5-0 thumping at Fulham behind them when beating Wolves. They've now taken seven points from their last three home games. Manchester United scraped a point at Anfield but their away record against better sides under Erik ten Hag is still woeful. Their draw against Liverpool was their first clean sheet in 12 away games against last season's top nine and only their second point.
West Ham weren't in the top nine last season but are this year. Manchester United offered little going forward against Liverpool. While I expect them to be more adventurous, I'm not convinced they have better attacking players than West Ham right now. David Moyes will be keen to get one over on his ex-employers and a narrow home win seems likely.
FPL Pick: Mohammed Kudus
Kudus put two blanks behind him to tally his third double-digit haul in his last seven games. He's still rostered on less than 5% of FPL teams and makes a nice differential as his rostership will continue to climb in the New Year.
Fulham (-150) vs. Burnley (+400) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Fulham 3 – 1 Burnley
Fulham came back down to Earth on Saturday. Their blank came after scoring 16 goals in their previous four games. Given they played most of the game with 10 men, it was understandable. Burnley's last five away games have seen them take one point and score just three goals. They haven't kept a clean sheet on their travels.
Burnley's away record, lack of goals, and lack of clean sheets makes them hard to back on their travels. Fulham's defeat at the weekend was largely down to the sending off of Raul Jimenez in the first half. Fulham won their last three home games, scoring 13 in the process. They should have too much for Burnley, even without Jimenez.
FPL Pick: Willian
Willian didn't start Fulham's last two away games. But he has started their last three home games, tallying three goals and one assist. He's Fulham's penalty taker and is involved in set-pieces so has multiple routes to provide a valuable return.
Luton Town (+400) vs. Newcastle United (-160) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Luton Town 1 – 1 Newcastle United
Given what occurred in Luton's last game, it's difficult to assess how they get on this week. But their home form has been solid with no one having won by more than a goal at Kenilworth Road. Newcastle's away form has been nothing like their home record. Only five of their 29 points have come away from St. James' Park.
With only one away win this season, it's hard to back Newcastle winning. We have something of the unknown about Luton given what happened to Tom Lockyer. If we just go from their home record, Luton will put up a fight and with the League Cup quarter-final in midweek, Newcastle might come up a bit short.
FPL Pick: Kieran Trippier
The one weakness Luton has is defending set-pieces. They've conceded seven goals from dead-ball situations (third-most) and Trippier has the quality to exploit that. He was rested in midweek, but came off the bench and gifted Chelsea their equalizer. Then he missed his penalty in the shootout. He's struggled of late and Trippier has totaled zero points in his last three games so is certainly due.
Nottingham Forest (+180) vs. Bournemouth (+150) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1 – 2 Bournemouth
Forest sacked manager Steve Cooper in midweek with former Wolves and Tottenham manager Nuno Espirito Santo poised to take over. With one win in their last 13 games, he'll have his work cut out. Bournemouth's game with Luton was abandoned with the score at 1-1. They were on course to make it six games without a loss.
There's always a concern about picking a game with the "new manager bounce" effect. But Espirito Santo wouldn't have had much time to really change things and Forest will be so short of confidence right now. Bournemouth will be the opposite and should be bouncing heading into this one. That's why I give the visitors a slight edge.
FPL Pick: Marcus Tavernier
Dominic Solanke has been instrumental in Bournemouth's recent form. But Tavernier has been crucial in their resurgence as well. He has blanked in three of Bournemouth's last five games but he bagged two goal involvements in each of the other two. At £5.4m and 1.2% rostered, he's a nice differential that could boom or bust. At that price, he's worth risking rolling the dice on.
Tottenham Hotspur (-125) vs. Everton (+185) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Tottenham Hotspur 2 – 0 Everton
Back-to-back wins for Tottenham seem to have put their horror mini-slump behind them. It's now 11 consecutive games in which they've scored first. Everton's recent form has helped propel them up the table and away from relegation concerns. They're the only EPL side to have taken 12 points from their last four games and have kept a clean sheet in each of them.
Everton's run will stop soon and Tottenham appear to have turned the corner after their recent struggles. Everton's played five of the current top seven, winning one and losing four. Their four losses were all to nil and the win came against a Newcastle side running on fumes. Everton are suited to defend leads rather than chasing so the first goal will be crucial. Take nothing away from The Toffees, but this is a game they don't get anything from.
FPL Pick: Dejan Kulusevski
The Swedish winger registered an assist and a goal last weekend. While the goal was a gift, it was the second time in four games he's bagged two goal involvements in a game. It might take a bit of magic or a quality cross to unlock this stingy Everton defense and Kulusevski has shown he's got that in his locker.
Liverpool (+140) vs. Arsenal (+190) - 12:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Liverpool 2 – 1 Arsenal
Liverpool's 100% home record was ended last weekend. But they remain unbeaten at Anfield and their only loss of the season came at Tottenham when they had to play with nine men. Arsenal's 2.0 points per game average away from home is tied first. They are also tied for first with the fewest away goals conceded (seven).
Arsenal's lost their last seven EPL games at Anfield and you need to go back to September 2012 for their last league win at Liverpool. It's fair to say this is Arsenal's best side in over a decade and if both sides repeat their performances last weekend, this will be an away win. But the league doesn't work like that and the one thing Arsenal have fallen short of this year is getting something away from home against the top sides.
FPL Pick: Mo Salah
A rare blank for Salah last weekend means he's poised to bounce back with a big performance on Saturday. Since joining Liverpool, he's faced Arsenal at home six times. He has six goals and two assists in those games, blanking just once. Many FPL managers will be looking for an alternative captain option after last weekend so putting the armband on him this week could pay dividends.
Sunday, December 24, 2023
Wolves (+270) vs. Chelsea (-105) - 8:00 am ET
Score prediction: Wolves 2 – 2 Chelsea
After a string of impressive performances and results, Wolves' 3-0 defeat at West Ham was their worst of the season on both counts. It was the first time since Matchday 1 in which they failed to score. Chelsea moved into the top 10 following their win last Saturday. They've only managed back-to-back wins once this season.
Wolves are unbeaten in their last six home games, drawing three and winning three. They have scored in all eight home games but have just one clean sheet at Molineux. Chelsea's lost their last three away games, but won their previous three. They remain a Jekyll and Hyde team but we did correctly predict their 2-0 win and this feels like a game that ends in a score draw.
FPL Pick: Hwang Hee-chan
Hwang has blanked in consecutive games. At home, he's been outstanding with six of his eight goals this season coming at Molineux. His 78 FPL points lead the team and rank him seventh among all midfielders. He's picked up 50 of those points at home and another handful wouldn't come as a surprise. Just keep in mind that Hwang is one booking away from a suspension. It's an ideal time of year to monitor that among your squad, too.
Betting Picks
The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay (which I will be playing and tracking).
| Game | Moneyline | Over/Under 2.5 | BTTS |
| C. Palace 1 – 1 Brighton | Draw +245 | U2.5 -110 | Yes -155 |
| A. Villa 3 – 0 Sheff United | A. Villa -500 | O2.5 -230 | No -140 |
| West Ham 1 – 0 Man United | West Ham +140 | U2.5 +120 | No +150 |
| Fulham 3 – 1 Burnley | Fulham -150 | O2.5 -125 | Yes -130 |
| Luton 1 – 1 Newcastle | Draw +320 | U2.5 +105 | Yes -135 |
| N. Forest 1 – 2 Bournemouth | Bournemouth +150 | O2.5 -115 | Yes -160 |
| Tottenham 2 – 0 Everton | Tottenham -125 | U2.5 +145 | No +150 |
| Liverpool 2 – 1 Arsenal | Liverpool +140 | O2.5 -145 | Yes -180 |
| Wolves 2 – 2 Chelsea | Draw +260 | O2.5 -120 | Yes -150 |
| Season totals | 88/169 | 91/169 | 96/169 |
| Season parlays | 2/17 (-9.27u) | 5/17 (+11.77u) | 7/17 (+19.99u) |
Wishing you all a very Merry Christmas. Make sure to spend as much time with your loved ones as possible. Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
