EPL Betting Picks and FPL Game Previews for Matchday 15: English Premier League

December 4, 2023

Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchday 15 of the 2023/24 season, starting on 12/5/2023. He previews each game from the English Premier League; picking bets, analyzing the FPL impacts, and looking at the best options for your lineups.

The EPL season rolls on and so does the coverage from the RotoBaller soccer team. We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game, along with a score prediction, and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.

Little more than 48 hours after Matchday 14 ended, Matchday 15 will kick off. We bagged a 'both teams to score' parlay and came close to hitting the moneyline and over/under parlays, too. Given the quick turnaround, the write-ups are a little abbreviated but not at the expense of the analysis and research.

We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller, too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content on top of the weekly preview and betting content, which can be found if you click here. Follow the team on X (@LucidMediaDFS, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, @BellRoto, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.

Tuesday, December 5, 2023

Wolves (-115) vs. Burnley (+310) - 2:30 pm ET

Score prediction: Wolves 2 - 1 Burnley

Wolves are unbeaten in their last four home games, scoring two goals in three of them. They've now scored in every game other than on the season's opening weekend but kept just one clean sheet (Matchday 3). Burnley's five away goals (six games) are second-fewest in the league. They have conceded two or more in each of their last three away games, losing them all. Wolves should win but will likely need to score more than one to do so.

FPL Pick: Matheus Cunha

Cunha has three goal involvements in his last three games and six on the season. His pace should cause Burnley problems and his finish on Saturday was from a player full of confidence. He's a great discount option (£5.5m) on just 1.6% of FPL rosters.

Luton Town (+1100) vs. Arsenal (-450) - 3:15 pm ET

Score prediction: Luton Town 0 - 2 Arsenal

Luton have scored in five of their six home games this season but are yet to keep a clean sheet. They have only scored more than one goal once. Only two visitors have been able to score more than one goal at Kenilworth Road. Arsenal's three goals conceded on the road (six games) are the fewest in the league. They have only scored more than one goal twice. An away win is likely but it'll be a closer game than many expect.

FPL Pick: Bukayo Saka

Saka scored his first goal since Matchday 7 and has now tallied a goal involvement in five of his last six games. His 87 points make him the third-highest-scoring midfielder and fifth overall. He's arguably yet to find his best form, which is a scary thought for the rest of the league.

Wednesday, December 6, 2023

Brighton (-115) vs. Brentford (+290) - 2:30 pm ET

Score prediction: Brighton 2 - 2 Brentford

All 14 of Brighton's EPL games have seen both sides score. There have been three or more total goals in 11 of them. Brighton is unbeaten in their last five home games but have drawn the last three. Brentford's six away games have seen them score seven and concede seven goals. They have a +3.2 xGD (expected goal difference) away from home, the third-best in the league.

FPL Pick: Bryan Mbeumo

Mbeumo got his fourth assist of the season on Saturday and his 10th goal involvement on the season. He's blanked in four of Brentford's six away games. But Brighton will be without their main center-back Lewis Dunk and conceded five goals in their last two games. They've yet to keep a clean sheet this season, too. Mbeumo has been one of the most consistent performers throughout 2023.

Crystal Palace (+110) vs. Bournemouth (+245) - 2:30 pm ET

Score prediction: Crystal Palace 2 - 1 Bournemouth

Only Everton (five) has scored fewer home goals than Palace (six). Their 7.0 xG (expected goals) at home are also the second-fewest. But they do have one of the better defensive records at home, conceding just eight (7.4 xGA). The 18 away goals Bournemouth had conceded are the second-most. Their 3-1 win at bottom-of-the-table Sheffield United in their last away game is their only road win and the only time they've scored more than one on their travels.

FPL Pick: Michael Olise

Olise's return from injury came at the right time with Eberechi Eze nursing an ankle injury. Olise scored a wonder goal on his return to the starting lineup on Matchday 13 and had 13 goal involvements in 31 starts last season. He can win close games for Palace with some magic, something they could very well need.

Fulham (+105) vs. Nottingham Forest (+255) - 2:30 pm ET

Score prediction: Fulham 1 - 0 Nottingham Forest

As long as Fulham scores at home, they win. That's been the pattern so far with three wins alternating with three losses. They've only scored more than one in four games this season, but have achieved that in each of their last two. Forest has blanked in three of their last four away games and four times in their last nine games. But Saturday's 1-0 defeat against Everton ended a three-game streak of scoring twice in a match.

FPL Pick: Harry Wilson

Despite not being a regular starter for Fulham, Wilson scored at Liverpool after making the starting XI for only the second time in seven games. He came off the bench and picked up an assist in Fulham's previous game, too. Little appeals in this game so punting on Wilson has appeal.

Sheffield United (+1000) vs. Liverpool (-500) - 2:30 pm ET

Score prediction: Sheffield United 1 - 3 Liverpool

Sheffield United's 5-0 defeat at Burnley was the third time they've lost by five or more goals. Their -12 goal difference at home is the worst in the league. Liverpool has drawn four of their seven away games, winning two and losing one. Both teams have scored in all of Liverpool's seven away games. In those seven games, only Brighton has scored twice against them when Liverpool had 11 players on the pitch.

FPL Pick: Trent Alexander-Arnold

Two goals and an assist in his last two games make Alexander-Arnold as appealing a play as ever. It could easily have been three goals in two games instead. His more advanced role and set-piece ability make this an even more appetizing game to start him in. Only two teams have conceded more set-piece goals than Sheffield United (six).

Aston Villa (+350) vs. Manchester City (-145) - 3:15 pm ET

Score prediction: Aston Villa 2 - 3 Manchester City

Villa has a 100% record at Villa Park and their 23 goals at home are the most in the league. They've scored three or more in each of their home games but have yet to face a side in the top seven in the league at home. Manchester City has scored more away goals (16) than anyone else, scoring three or more in four of their seven road matches. Villa is a popular underdog pick this week but they've yet to face a 'top team' at home.

FPL Pick: Julian Alvarez

Alvarez hasn't scored since Matchday 9 and has just two assists for his efforts since then. But he played a starring role on Sunday and he will need to do the same as City will be without Rodri, Grealish, and possibly Doku on Wednesday. FPL's third-highest points-scoring forward should add to his 11 goal involvements so far.

Manchester United (+180) vs. Chelsea (+135) - 3:15 pm ET

Score prediction: Manchester United 1 - 2 Chelsea

Manchester United's performance on Saturday was rather pathetic. Their five wins in the previous six EPL games have masked a lot of flaws in their play. They have a dreadful record against top sides, but the difficulty with this game is deciding whether or not Chelsea is a top side. 10 of Chelsea's 19 points have come on their travels and although I'm slightly surprised they are the favorites, I still like their odds of returning to London with all three points.

FPL Pick: Cole Palmer

After seven consecutive starts, Palmer started Sunday's game on the bench. He should be fresh for the trip to Old Trafford and after registering seven goal involvements in his previous seven games, the former Manchester City player is primed for another starring role.

Thursday, December 7, 2023

Everton (+185) vs. Newcastle United (+145) - 2:30 pm ET

Score prediction: Everton 0 - 1 Newcastle United

Saturday saw Everton win for a fourth time on their travels. But The Toffees have picked up just four points at home (seven games), scoring a league-low five goals. Newcastle has managed just one win in six away games so far. Eight of their 13 away goals came in one game but they've found the net in all but two games this season. The Newcastle squad is rather thin right now but they're in form and Everton's home form is too poor to trust them.

FPL Pick: Anthony Gordon

Gordon has a slight hip injury but given Newcastle's other injuries, he'll still be starting on Thursday. He's already got 11 goal involvements this season and four in his last four games. He's returning to his former club for the first time and there are plenty of boxes ticked for Gordon to get on the scoresheet.

Tottenham Hotspur (-130) vs. West Ham United (+300) - 3:15 pm ET

Score prediction: Tottenham Hotspur 2 - 1 West Ham United

Tottenham's six home games have seen a total of 18 goals. After winning their first four home games, they've lost their last two. Both occasions saw them not score more than once, with Tottenham scoring two in each of the previous four. Both teams have scored in 12 of West Ham's 14 games this season. All seven of their away games have seen both teams score and their last six have seen three or more total goals.

Tottenham came incredibly close to setting a new EPL record on Sunday. Although they managed to get a point from their trip to Manchester City, their habit of scoring first and not winning is becoming a problem. I don't see them letting a lead slip for a fifth straight game.

FPL Pick: Heung-min Son

Son scored at both ends on Sunday and is now the second-highest-scoring midfielder in FPL. He's got three goals and two assists in his last four home EPL games against West Ham and after ending a three-game barren run, will fancy his chances of another couple of goal involvements on Thursday.

Betting Picks

The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay (which I will be playing and tracking).

Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!

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