EPL Betting Picks and FPL Game Previews for Matchday 12: English Premier League

Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchday 12 of the 2023/24 season, starting on 11/11/2023. He previews each game from the English Premier League; picking bets, analyzing the FPL impacts, and looking at the best options for your lineups.

The Premier League is back and so is the RotoBaller soccer team. We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game, along with a score prediction, and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.

Few Matchdays have had as much controversy as we saw last weekend. Once again, officiating took center stage, so the fact we bagged another parlay for a sixth straight winning week was rather miraculous. With almost a third of the season down and another international break on the horizon, this weekend is set to offer up plenty more intrigue and talking points.

We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller, too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content on top of the weekly preview and betting content, which can be found if you click here. Follow the team on X (@LucidMediaDFS, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, @BellRoto, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.

Saturday, November 11, 2023

Wolves (+215) vs. Tottenham Hotspur (+115) - 08:30 am ET

Score prediction: Wolves 1 – 2 Tottenham Hotspur

For a second straight week, Wolves were the victims of a highly contentious penalty decision. The three points dropped from those decisions mean they are sitting in 14th place rather than 11th. Tottenham suffered a first league defeat of the season in Monday's madness. Some of their players lost their heads despite taking an early lead and what followed was barely worth analyzing.

Of Tottenham's starting XI today, only four remain on the pitch 👀#BBCFootball #TOTCHE #epl pic.twitter.com/qEgZfU31Un

— BBC Sport (@BBCSport) November 6, 2023

Wolves missing Pedro Neto will continue to hurt their chances. His 4.72 xGI (expected goal involvements) are tenth most among midfielders and his eight assists are tied for most in FPL. Tottenham also have personnel issues. Three of their starting back four will miss out due to suspension or injury, while James Maddison is a doubt after picking up a knock on Monday. It just feels like Tottenham's attacking style will see them over the line.

FPL Pick: Brennan Johnson

With Maddison a doubt and Richarlison set for a spell on the sidelines, Johnson has a route to regular playing time in the coming weeks. He was sacrificed early on Monday following Romero's red card. That was only his second start since joining Tottenham, but Johnson did pick up his first assist of the season the previous week. His pace could prove the difference on the break and at £5.8m and on 0.3% of teams, is an interesting option.

Arsenal (-550) vs. Burnley (+1300) - 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Arsenal 3 – 0 Burnley

Arsenal also suffered a first league defeat in very contentious circumstances. Mikel Arteta's post-game interviews and the club's statement the following day emphasized their grievance over constant questionable decisions. Burnley suffered a fourth consecutive defeat and it is only goal difference keeping them off the bottom spot in the table.

Burnley's away record is better than at home, with all four of their points coming on their travels. However, they've not faced a current top-5 team away from home and the only two road games against sides currently in the top half resulted in 2-0 and 3-0 losses. Arsenal could be galvanized by last week's encounter and that could light a fire that Burnley simply won't be able to put out.

Club statement

— Arsenal (@Arsenal) November 5, 2023

FPL Pick: Bukayo Saka

It's been a quiet period for Saka, without a league goal in three games. But last weekend was the first time since Matchday 2 in which he failed to register a goal involvement. With captain Martin Ødegaard dealing with a hamstring issue, Arsenal has lacked some creativity. They'll need Saka to step up even more to counter that. Saka limped off on Wednesday, so monitor the news but he's had a history of playing through knocks.

Crystal Palace (+145) vs. Everton (+195) - 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Crystal Palace 0 – 0 Everton

Palace's win at Burnley ended a three-game winless streak. The 23 total goals in Palace games (2.09 goals per game average) are the fewest in the league. Everton's point against Brighton gives them a little bit of daylight between themselves and the four sides below them in the table. The 2.36 goals per game average in Everton is the joint second-lowest in the EPL.

With both teams' games offering the fewest goals in the league, I'm expecting a dull encounter and one that could easily end goalless. The last time I predicted that in a Palace game, it ended 3-2, although it was 0-0 at halftime. Of Palace's 11 games, both teams have scored in just four of them. The same goes for Everton. Only four of Palace's games have seen three or more total goals while only five of Everton's games have.

Just a reminder that if you ever do want to back a 0-0 scoreline, you are better off backing "no goalscorer" in the first goalscorer market. In many cases, it will be the same odds and if the only goal(s) of the game is an own goal, you still get paid out. Check the T&Cs of the site if you are unsure.

FPL Pick: Sam Johnstone

Eberechi Eze's return from injury is a huge boost for Palace. If they do find a route to goal, he will likely be involved. But I'm backing the home team's shot-stopper to add to his league-leading five clean sheets. His 49 points lead all goalkeepers (tied with Allison Becker). Everton's 5.4 xG more than their actual goals leads the league and their profligacy in front of goal should mean Johnstone is still active enough to make a few saves too.

😤 Everton have missed more big chances (18) than any other team in the Premier League this season pic.twitter.com/MPES0bGpQY

— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) October 6, 2023

Manchester United (-310) vs. Luton Town (+750) - 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Manchester United 2 – 0 Luton Town

United got us off to a perfect start last weekend. They eked out a narrow away win as we predicted and their last-minute winner means they remain the only side without a draw so far (six wins and five losses). Luton suffered last-minute heartbreak against Liverpool. The injury-time equalizer they conceded last weekend denied The Hatters a first league win. It also means they sit outside the relegation zone only on goal difference.

There's still a lot of uncertainty surrounding United right now so it's difficult to back them win in any other fashion but a tight and scrappy way. Given eight of Luton's last nine games have been decided by one goal, they have been acquitting themselves well. Luton just lacks enough quality to win or even draw the tight games and while I expect a home win, I do believe it will be a close game like we've been seeing from both sides.

FPL Pick: Marcus Rashford

Rashford has been making the headlines lately and not in a good way. His sending off Wednesday wouldn't have helped matters. There's no better way to silence the doubters than to score a goal, like Bruno Fernandes did last week (as we predicted). He returned from injury for Wednesday's Champions League tie and should be fresh this week having played only 42 minutes. His loyal FPL managers may finally be rewarded this weekend.

🔴🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Ten Hag: “Marcus Rashford’s very committed to Manchester United, trust me”.

“He's investing hard work in training to get back into form. He’s 100% ready for today”. pic.twitter.com/xNVaaQ6SMH

— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) November 8, 2023

Bournemouth (+370) vs. Newcastle United (-150) - 12:30 pm ET

Score prediction: Bournemouth 1 – 3 Newcastle United

Bournemouth suffered their biggest defeat of the season last weekend. Although that was rather expected, it does leave them in the relegation zone with the second-fewest goals scored (nine) and the second-most goals conceded (27). Newcastle's win moved them back into the top-6 and in touch with the league leaders. They have needed very favorable decisions to go their way over the last two games, however.

Newcastle's form is excellent, having taken 17 points from their last seven games. But, they could easily have picked up just one point from their last two games, instead of the four they did get. And they've lost back-to-back Champions League games without scoring during the last three weeks. Luckily for them, Bournemouth doesn't look like any sort of threat to end their unbeaten run and a comfortable away win is on the cards.

FPL Pick: Callum Wilson

Whilst Wilson is still looking for a first Champions League goal, he has bagged seven in the EPL and is Newcastle's leading scorer. In six seasons with Bournemouth, the striker scored 61 goals in 171 games. He's yet to face his former team in a league game and as we see so often, a player comes back to haunt his former team. Wilson left Tuesday's Champions League game with hamstring tightness so monitor this closely before making any move.

🤕 As we all feared Callum Wilson came off injured, after feeling a tightness in his hamstring.

Eddie Howe says it's too early to say if he'll be OK for Bournemouth or not, 9 players now currently injured ahead of the game with NO recognised striker available.#NUFC #NUFCFans… pic.twitter.com/2C6rczf9fw

— Magpie 24/7 (@Magpie24_7) November 7, 2023

Sunday, November 12, 2023

Aston Villa (-175) vs. Fulham (+450) - 09:00 am ET

Score prediction: Aston Villa 3 – 0 Fulham

Aston Villa will look to put last week's defeat behind them and win a club-record 13th consecutive home league game. It was their first EPL defeat since Matchday 4, which was also the last time they failed to score a goal. Fulham's attacking struggles continued as they failed to score for a fourth time in their last six EPL games. Only the league's bottom two sides have a lower expected goal total than Fulham (11.4 xG).

Villa's home record has been remarkable and the main thing Unai Emery has brought to the team is goals. Their 20 goals scored at home are the most in the league. They've scored at least three in all five home games and only conceded four goals in the process. Fulham's scored just five goals in their six away games, blanking in two of their last three road games. A comfortable home win looks the likeliest outcome on Sunday.

Today was only the fourth time Aston Villa have failed to score in the Unai Emery era in the Premier League.

All four goalless games have come away from home. #avfc | #utv | #vtid pic.twitter.com/rahqB7QF3E

— Aston Villa Statto (@AVFCStatto) November 5, 2023

FPL Pick: Moussa Diaby

Diaby scored his first home goal against Luton a fortnight ago. He did have three assists in the previous four home games and also added to that total on Matchday 9. Diaby has faced three of the bottom six clubs already this season and picked up 28 points in the process, including two double-digit points hauls. He could easily achieve a third 10+ points return on Sunday.

Brighton (-450) vs. Sheffield United (+1000) - 09:00 am ET

Score prediction: Brighton 3 – 1 Sheffield United

Despite sitting in seventh place, Brighton's form has been sketchy. Last week's draw means they've failed to win any of their five EPL games. They've scored just six goals in that run having scored 18 in their first six games. Sheffield United's first win of the season was certainly controversial but they might be able to build some confidence from it. They will need to as they remain bottom of the table with the most goals conceded (30).

Brighton's struggles in the league may be attributed to adapting to playing Thursday Europa League games. They have also suffered some key injuries but despite their struggles, have only lost two of their last five EPL games. Sheffield United remains pointless on their travels and the three away goals scored are the fewest in the league. While I don't expect them to take anything from the game, Brighton's yet to keep a clean sheet this season.

FPL Pick: Kaoru Mitoma

Mitoma's assist last weekend was his first goal involvement since Matchday 6 when he came off the bench to score twice. The absence of Pervis Estupiñán has impacted Mitoma significantly so last weekend's assist boosted FPL manager's confidence in him. Estupiñán is in contention to start on Sunday, which will be a welcome boost for Brighton and Mitoma. This weekend represents the perfect opportunity for Mitoma to get a run of form going.

Some worrying numbers for Mitoma without Estupiñán on the pitch. Expected goals and shots are still very similar, but that assist potential has fallen off a cliff. https://t.co/TGVOyzuxih pic.twitter.com/YOLH0Aqik3

— Andrew Neave (FPL_YIP) (@FPL_Yip) November 6, 2023

Liverpool (-260) vs. Brentford (+650) - 09:00 am ET

Score prediction: Liverpool 2 – 1 Brentford

Liverpool's surprise 1-1 draw at Luton maintained their four-game unbeaten run but they've now won just twice in six games away from home. At Anfield, they're a perfect five wins from five games, scoring 14 and conceding two. Brentford's second-half comeback last weekend saw them win a third straight EPL game. They've scored eight goals in that run after scoring just three goals in their previous four EPL games.

Brentford's recent form and away record makes me believe this will be a closer game than the oddsmakers think. Brentford's only conceded four away goals (five games) which is the second-fewest in the league. Manchester United is the only side to have scored twice against them in those five games and both goals came in injury-time. I expect Liverpool to win, but Brentford will be competitive like they were last season when losing 1-0 in this fixture.

FPL Pick: Mo Salah

While I do expect Brentford to put up solid resistance, you can't not back Salah at Anfield. He's averaged 9.4 points per game at home, scoring six goals. He's found the net in every home game so far this season and even in last season's game, he scored the only goal. He's had a goal involvement in his last 14 home games, dating back to last season, and is the safest option at captain this week.

Mohamed Salah’s last 14 Premier League home games:

| #LFC | #YNWA | pic.twitter.com/kql05pUQur

— 𝕜𝕖𝕖𝕡𝕒𝕔𝕙𝕣𝕚𝕤 (@__keepachris__) October 30, 2023

West Ham United (-110) vs. Nottingham Forest (+290) - 09:00 am ET

Score prediction: West Ham United 2 – 0 Nottingham Forest

West Ham looked set to win their first league game since Matchday 7, before letting a 2-1 lead slip at Brentford. It was their third consecutive defeat and only the league's bottom four have conceded more than West Ham (20). Forest's impressive victory against Aston Villa ended a six-game winless run. Their away form is still holding them back, with just four points and four goals from their six away games.

Despite failing to take a point from their last two games, West Ham has had a higher xG total than their opponents in both matches. Everton's win at West Ham a fortnight ago was the first time the opposing side has left with all three points who are not currently inside the top six in 15 games (dating back to last season). Since their promotion, Forest has won two of their 25 away games in the league. They've scored just 15 goals in those games.

FPL Pick: Mohammed Kudus

Before the Everton game, I mentioned Kudus as someone worth keeping an eye on as I expected him to make his first league start and get a run in the side. While he did start against Everton, he blanked before making up for it last weekend. Kudus bagged a goal and an assist en route to scoring 11 points. I'm not sure we see another double-digit return but I certainly expect another goal involvement from the Ghanaian international.

Chelsea (+360) vs. Manchester City (-135) - 11:30 am ET

Score prediction: Chelsea 1 – 2 Manchester City

Chelsea ended Tottenham's unbeaten start to the season in bizarre circumstances. While they've been very inconsistent, I'm confident in saying we won't see anything close to a repeat of that game this weekend. City steamrolled Bournemouth as we anticipated but their two losses have both come away from home this season.

If it wasn't for a penalty and Tottenham being reduced to nine men, I'm not sure Chelsea would've found a route to goal on Monday. Despite their 10.3 xG at home, Chelsea has only scored six times but conceded just seven goals. City's three-game winning streak has seen them score 11 goals and concede twice. While I fully expect a City win (and at these odds, it's hard not to take up), Chelsea will at least put up a fight.

FPL Pick: Phil Foden

Jérémy Doku stole the show last week with a goal and four assists. But only one of his seven goal involvements this season has come on the road. Foden scored for the second successive game last weekend (and again in midweek). With Chelsea likely employing a deeper and more compact defense, City will need to find some creativity from tight spaces. Foden is the perfect option to unlock a tight defense so he gets my vote this weekend.

The scoring continues as Foden makes it three in his last three games for City ⚽️

How are those new owners feeling tonighthttps://t.co/g8pCQ3DBEC

— FPL Manual (Wale) (@TheFPLManual) November 7, 2023

Betting Picks

The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay.

Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!

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