RADIO
Here at RotoBaller, our dynasty crew will be reviewing all 32 teams in our offseason Dynasty Team outlook series. Leading up to the draft, we will break down every franchise as they currently stand and will review them again after the conclusion of free agency and the NFL Draft.
Which players should you buy and which players should you sell? Who will be sleepers this season and who will be busts? We will cover all the positions and all the angles for you.
Today, let's look at the Tennessee Titans, who made the playoffs last year and then upset the Kansas City Chiefs! Last season felt almost like a step backwards at times for the Titans, but their weak division helped them finish 9-7 and sneak into the postseason. What will the 2018 season bring?
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Tennessee Titans Dynasty Outlook
Team Record: 9-7 (2nd, AFC South)
Fantasy Leaders (taken from FantasyData.com)
QB: Marcus Mariota - 210.48 (QB18)
RB: DeMarco Murray - 132.5 (RB23)
WR: Rishard Matthews - 103.2 (WR37)
TE: Delanie Walker - 100.5 (TE7)
IDP: Wesley Woodyard - 152.5 (LB6)
Quarterback
Marcus Mariota was supposed to break out last year. Instead, he dealt with injury and finished as the QB18. Mariota missed one game (a loss to Miami with Matt Cassel under center), but he clearly wasn't at 100 percent for part of the year. The good news? He should be in 2018!
Let's take a look at how Mariota fares in some advanced metrics per PlayerProfiler:
Mariota ranked 18th in deep ball attempts, which isn't surprising since he's been more known for accuracy than for arm strength. His receiving core can also take some of the blame for this: Rishard Matthews and Delanie Walker were his most consistent targets and neither guy screams THROW IT UP DEEP. This can be quantified by a -5.51 supporting cast efficiency, which ranks 27th in the NFL. We also saw Mariota -- long known as a great passer in the red zone -- complete just 49 percent of his throws in the red zone, good for 45th in the league. For reference, he ranked ninth in that category in 2016.
Mariota's rushing efficiency stayed steady in 2017 -- his high floor as a ball carrier pumps up his fantasy value. We have to assume his passing numbers look better in 2018.
Of all the quarterbacks in the NFL, Mariota is the most frustrating to me in terms of figuring out his fantasy value. He's young. He's capable of putting up very good numbers. But he hasn't finished as a top 10 fantasy quarterback yet and there's at least two players who finished below him last year (Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson) who should finish 2018 ahead of him if healthy (HOT TAKE).
Where is Mariota in the RotoBaller dynasty rankings? Fifth among quarterbacks. My personal ranking would be closer to where Pierre Camus has him (QB8) than where the consensus ranking is, but I get it. Mariota is still young, he's still got upside, and he's got that rushing floor. I'd rather have him in a dynasty start up than an older quarterback like Matthew Stafford or a younger but maybe less talented guy like Jared Goff.
The Titans have a new backup quarterback and it's Blaine Gabbert, who doesn't have any place on your fantasy rosters unless you already have Mariota and your league is large and a superflex and you really, really need him as a handcuff.
Running Back
As a Derrick Henry truther, I was excited by the team's decision to move on from DeMarco Murray after a disappointing year by the veteran. I thought he'd be a top 10 fantasy running back this season. Things were good in the world of Justin's Fantasy Opinions.
And then the Titans signed Dion Lewis.
Henry looked good at times during his second season, but he also had some rough games, including a six carry, seven yard performance against the Texans. Henry was held below two yards per carry on three occasions, but he also posted four games with over five yards per carry. Henry didn't display game to game consistency last year, which makes sense due to his role on the team for most of the year (the backup to Murray) but also brings up some warning signs if you're wanting him to be your full time running back.
Some good things about Henry: he was 19th among running backs in red zone touches, which would suggest a lot of usage in that part of the field if it wasn't for the fact that Lewis ranked seventh in the same category. Henry did see more carries than Lewis at the goal line last year, which I think is actually a thing that suggests good outcomes for Henry. Henry had the 20th most breakaway runs despite playing as a backup for most of the year, which is also good...except Lewis had the ninth most.
Okay, let's go another way here: Dion Lewis is going to be a great value pick for you. He basically does most of the things that Henry does well just as well or better and he also had the highest catch rate of any running back last year. He was second in yards created. He evaded the sixth most tackles. Our dynasty rankings haven't been updated yet to reflect the Lewis move, but USA Today has Henry at 16 and Lewis at 27. I like Lewis at that price. I actually like Henry at his as well, but I'd be worried that a time share emerges that makes him more likely to bust. Lewis is (probably???) a better player.
Wide Receiver
Rishard Matthews is a severely underrated receiver in re-draft formats, but I'm not sure if he's got the highest dynasty upside at this point. (He's my WR3 in the RotoBaller staff league, but I'm also 100 percent in win-now mode, so...) Matthews played in 14 games last season and finished with 53 receptions for 795 yards and four touchdowns. He's finished top-50 at his position for three straight years and is a good, if unexciting fantasy option. It seems like he's been around forever, but he'll be just 29 next season and should have a few years left in the league. He's the WR56 in the RotoBaller rankings, but owners looking for an immediate payoff could take him over higher ranked players like Zay Jones and Josh Doctson.
Corey Davis is a lot more interesting for dynasty purposes. He's the WR20 in our rankings and should go into the 2018 season as the number one option for Marcus Mariota. Davis didn't find the end zone as a rookie, but he flashed a lot of potential down the stretch in the regular season. Then, the playoffs arrived. Davis had four catches for 35 yards against the Chiefs, but we finally got a good look at him in the loss to New England. Tennessee had no chance in that game, but Davis caught both of his team's touchdowns in that one. So, is he worth picking in dynasty at his current ADP? Would you want Davis over, say, Josh Gordon, Adam Thielen, Golden Tate, or Devin Funchess? I think, again, it depends on what you value. Of those four names, only Gordon has the future upside of Davis, and there are a lot of reasons to trust Davis and his upside over Gordon's. But will Davis help you win in 2018? Maybe! But teams that are invested in the present might want to look elsewhere.
Tennessee is still searching for skill position help. Jordan Matthews has visited with the team, but he ended up signing with New England. They could use an early pick on a receiver, but they also just did that with Corey Davis...
Oh yeah, there's Taywan Taylor, RotoBaller's WR79. If the team doesn't bring in another free agent, Taylor could have value, but if he ends up as the fourth receiver then he's essentially just a guy you stash and hope gets a key role in 2019. His 231 yards and a score as a rookie were nice and his per catch numbers were, for the most part, better than Davis's, but Taylor played just 25.2 percent of the snaps. If the team wasn't bringing in receivers to visit, I'd wonder about Taylor stepping into Eric Decker's role in the offense, but even then...the Eric Decker role last season was as the WR68. Maybe my biggest issue with Taylor's fantasy prospects is tied in with my feelings about the Titans offense as a whole: it isn't a great passing attack, it just added a very good running back in a way that suggests more running back involvement in that passing attack, and new head coach Mike Vrabel is a defense guy.
Tight End
Delanie Walker is still a good tight end. If you're in win mode, he's also a good value. He's 13th in this site's dynasty rankings because, well... he's getting up there in age and he can't have too many seasons left as a top tight end. If you're playing the long game in dynasty, there's not really a point grabbing Walker, but he has a lot of value if you want to put together a strong team in 2018.
Jonnu Smith? Phillip Supernaw? Neither guy has value at the moment, but Smith is athletic and could be the TE of the near future if/when Walker starts to decline.
IDP
Jurrell Casey was the top fantasy defensive lineman for Tennessee in 2017, finishing 18th at his position. Casey is a good lineman, but there's a lot of guys I'd rather have in my lineup. He's a good player to have as a bye week fill-in/injury replacement.
Wesley Woodward finished as the LB6 in 2017, but FantasyPros currently has him outside of their top 33 linebackers in their most recent rankings. That makes sense, as Woodward will be 32 next season and his strong 2017 performance came after a disappointing 2016 season. I'm not interested him in dynasty.
Defensive back is where we see some fantasy value out of the Titans defense. Kevin Byard (DB3) and Adoree' Jackson (DB29) are both young players who had strong 2017 performances. There's a case for Byard as the league's best safety at some point in the near future, though I'd like to see a strong third season before I deem him that. He's a great dynasty asset. The same goes for Jackson, who had a strong rookie season and is especially valuable in leagues with return yardage.
Then there's Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan, both former Patriots. Ryan has already been a Titan for a season and he produced an underwhelming first year there as it ended up being his first year without an interception. I could see Jackson taking playing time from Ryan this year. Meanwhile, Malcolm Butler will be the number one corner on this Titans team and is coming off a season that ended with a Super Bowl benching. He can be productive for Tennessee, but I'm not sure I want to take him in dynasty if his price ends up being high.
