Dynasty Team Analysis – Philadelphia Eagles

Here at RotoBaller, our dynasty crew will be reviewing all 32 teams in our offseason Dynasty Team outlook series. Leading up to the draft, we will break down every franchise as they currently stand and will review them again after the conclusion of free agency and the NFL Draft. Which players should you buy and which players should you sell? Who will be sleepers this season and who will be busts? We will cover all the positions and all the angles for you.

The Eagles offense spring boarded from afterthought in 2016 to the forefront of fantasy football in 2017 as a maturing Carson Wentz hit his stride prior to his season ending ACL injury. The addition of Alshon Jeffery to the Eagles receiving corps gave Wentz a reliable target on the outside, while moving former draft bust Nelson Agholor to the slot revitalized his young career. The running game was aided by the acquisition of Jay Ajayi from the Dolphins mid-way through the season, but also found contributions from Super Bowl hero Corey Clement and LeGarrette Blount. Let’s not forget just how great of a fantasy contributor Zach Ertz became as well at tight end. The Super Bowl champs are loaded at every level and every position for fantasy owners heading into 2018 and beyond.

While there are top tier fantasy options at nearly every position heading into 2018, there are also some needs for this team as they continue to stockpile talent in the arms race that is the NFC. Let’s take a look at the outlook for team going forward as they look to re-load in the remainder of free agency and the NFL Draft.

Philadelphia Eagles Dynasty Outlook

Team Record: 13-3 (1^st in NFC East, Super Bowl Champion)

Fantasy Leaders

QB: Carson Wentz – 281.7 (QB5)
RB: Jay Ajayi – 135.1 (RB36)
WR: Alshon Jeffery – 195.9 (WR21)
TE: Zach Ertz – 202.4 (TE3)
IDP: Nigel Bradham – 161.4 (LB36)

Quarterback

Everything was humming along smoothly for the Eagles and their second-year signal caller, Carson Wentz until their Week 13 game against the Rams. Wentz scrambled for a touchdown and in the process tore his ACL, ending his season. Up until that point, Wentz was not only an MVP candidate, but also a fantasy MVP throwing 33 touchdowns in just 13 games. He was uber-efficient in 2017 with a touchdown rate of 7.5%, far higher than the league average (4.2%). Fantasy owners should not expect that type of touchdown efficiency going forward, even with the amount of quality weapons around him. That’s not to say Wentz is not talented and a dynasty QB1 going forward, because he certainly is. Wentz does need to improve his overall accuracy as he completed just 60.2% of his passes in 2017. By comparison, only Cam Newton had a lower completion percentage (59.1%) than Wentz in the top-12 fantasy finishers last season.

Looking through a short-term lens, the biggest question surrounding the Eagles at the position is if Carson Wentz will be ready to start 2018 on time. His ACL injury occurred during week 13 of the 2017, so any setback in the rehab process could cost Wentz some time to start the season. Luckily for the Eagles, they have a Super Bowl winning quarterback as the replacement for Wentz in Nick Foles. Foles was impressive during the Eagles’ postseason run in 2017 and is more than capable to start the first few games in 2018 if need be. It appears that the game of quarterback musical chairs has stopped so Foles should be an Eagle for at least the 2018 season barring a last second trade. This is one of the best quarterback groups in the NFL.

Running Back

The Eagles were the poster child for running back by committee last season. Jay Ajayi saw 70 carries in seven games after his trade to the Eagles; LeGarrette Blount saw 173 and the combination of Corey Clement, Wendell Smallwood and Kenjon Barner combined for 127. Blount has now moved on to Detroit and to a reunion with Matt Patricia, leaving Ajayi along with the plethora of smaller backs to be in play for 2018. Good news for these backs is that even though there were many backs, there was plenty of production to go around. Overall, the Eagles ran the ball 473 times, good for sixth in the NFL in 2017. Removing Blount’s workload should make room for Jay Ajayi to pick up the slack now that he has been fully acclimated into the offense. He finished as the number 14 rated running back according to Pro Football Focus, but struggled in the receiving game, grading out at just a 36.7. He should be able to easily handle 200 carries in 2018.

The remainder of the running backs currently on the roster fills the same role as change of pace and third down backs. Clement led the team in rushing touchdowns with four on just 74 carries and also contributed 10 receptions for 123 yards. He will battle for playing time with Darren Sproles who will be returning from season ending surgery. Sproles will be 35 at the start of the 2018 season, so fantasy owners shouldn’t expect to see a lot of him in the future. The hope will be that Doug Pedersen sticks with just two backs and decides not to add another big bodied runner to replace Blount through the draft. If that is the case, Ajayi can be expected to deliver low-end RB2 results with Corey Clement on the periphery of rosterable players for dynasty rosters.

Wide Receiver

What a difference a year makes. Once considered the weak points of the Eagles in 2016, the addition of Alshon Jeffery and movement of Nelson Agholor into the slot gave Carson Wentz more than enough weapons to be plenty effective in 2017 and beyond. Alshon Jeffery was signed to a four-year extension after the season and should continue to be the top option for Carson Wentz as he matures. Jeffery saw 120 targets in 2017 in his first season with the Eagles and that should be his baseline for the next few seasons. He has always been a high volume touchdown scorer with at least seven touchdowns in each season where he’s played all 16 games. The issue has been that prior to 2017, Jeffery was not able to play a full season since 2014. When Jeffery is on the field, he is a force to be reckoned with due to his physicality and large frame. Fantasy owners should expect Jeffery to be a low-end WR1 or high-end WR2 for the next few seasons.

It took a few seasons, but Nelson Agholor has found his niche in the slot for the Eagles in 2017. Over 58% of his snaps were in the slot and he benefitted with a 62 reception season. Agholor was magical after the catch finishing with 302 post reception, the 18^th best mark in the NFL. Fantasy owners should not expect Agholor to score nine touchdowns as he did in 2017, but a seasonal average of anywhere from five to seven is reasonable. He should still be considered a solid WR3, especially in PPR formats.

After Torrey Smith left via free agency, the hope was for second year receiver Mack Hollins to start to see a higher snap count in 2018 and going forward. Hollins flashed some big play potential in limited opportunities in 2017, scoring one touchdown on 16 receptions and adding 226 yards. He should see a higher snap count in 2018 from his 32.6% in 2017, but expectations should be tempered at least in 2018 after the Eagles signed Mike Wallace to a one-year contract. Hollins has the potential to be the other starting outside receiver across from Alshon Jeffery and have some fringe fantasy value in 2018. He does have the potential to be fantasy relevant if Jeffery misses any time due to one of his various soft tissue injuries.

Tight End

It finally happened, after a few years of hype, Zach Ertz finally broke out and turned into the top tier fantasy tight ends. It’s clear that Ertz and Carson Wentz have great chemistry as Ertz was second amongst tight ends in touchdowns (eight) and third in red zone receptions (11) in 2017 in playing only 14 games. Ertz should continue to see over 100 targets even with so many other players to potential eat into those targets. He will just be heading into his age 28 season in 2018, and firmly in the prime years of tight ends in the NFL. Ertz should continue to thrive in this offense that is able to get him not only looks in the redzone, but also allows him to matchup against slower or smaller defenders. He will be a clear cut top three or four dynasty tight end going forward for the next few seasons at least.

While Ertz is entrenched as the number one fantasy tight end option for the Eagles, there is some more production to be had. Both Trey Burton and Brent Celek are no longer with the Eagles after the 2017 season, leaving another 55 targets up for grabs.

IDP

Unfortunately for IDP players, the Eagles have a variety of playmakers at all levels of their defense, so there is no one player that will stand out in tackle heavy leagues. Nigel Bradham led the team in tackles with 88, but Mychal Kendricks added 73 and safety Malcolm Jenkins had 79. Jenkins is worthy of DB2 status due to his playmaking ability. Bradham will be back with the Eagles in 2018 and can be considered a low-end LB2 in tackle-heavy formats. The real strength of the Eagles defense is their defensive line. They have a strong rotation of 8 linemen, which will now include Michael Bennett after trading for the veteran defensive lineman from Seattle. Brandon Graham should contribute near double digit sacks in and can be a high-end DL3 in big play scoring formats. Fletcher Cox is a monster on the interior, but due to the rotation in Philadelphia his value is capped. Derek Barnett has also flashed as a rookie, registering five sacks. He should see increased value going forward after Vinny Curry's departure for Tampa Bay.

Offseason Outlook

2018 Draft Picks
Round 1 (32), Round 4 (131), Round 4 (132), Round 5 (156), Round 5 (169), Round 6 (206)

There really are very few holes on the entirety of the Eagles team heading into 2018. Their wide receiver core is young, athletic and dynamic and they have one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL. They may choose to add another big bodied running back in the NFL draft to keep Jay Ajayi fresh as much of the season as possible. If a bigger running back is drafted with either of the fourth or fifth round selections, that very well may cap the upside of Jay Ajayi heading into 2018. There currently is a hole at tight end behind Zach Ertz, but that can easily be filled through the draft. They should pick up a bigger bodied tight end to help block and allow for Ertz to line up in the slot and continue to cause matchup nightmares. The Eagles are poised to be a fantasy factor the next few seasons.

More 2018 Dynasty League Strategy