RADIO
Chris Gregory goes over players that you should be looking to sell and buy in dynasty leagues. Plus, he offers a few rookie prospects you should be following.
There are two common mindsets amongst most dynasty managers. One is that of the “banners fly forever” crowd. These are win-now minds unafraid to draft older stars in a dynasty startup. They will make moves towards winning today, any time it’s reasonable. While these people will accept a rebuild, they don’t fear selling tomorrow if it improves their chances today.
The second mindset is of the long-term variety. They prefer selling too early rather than too late. These folks focus on youth and upside in dynasty startups, hesitating to draft Derrick Henry even at a value. They'll always be stingy in trading away draft picks and will break up an aging contender before it collapses. Maybe they even sent Henry off for Xavier Worthy last year?
What makes dynasty so great is that you can be a fan of the format, regardless of your mindset. The fact that some want to win now while others always look to the future is exactly what makes for an active and fun league. In fact, every league needs people of both mindsets. Every market needs buyers and sellers, just so things don't get stagnant.
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Dynasty Sell Highs
Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles
Barkley is arguably the most obvious sell-high candidate in dynasty.
The Penn State alum just had one of the best running back seasons in NFL history. He was the fantasy MVP of 2024, continues to dominate in the NFL playoffs, and ranks amongst the 15 best position players on almost every dynasty list there is. Better yet, you can remind buyers that Barkley will be two years younger in 2025 than Derrick Henry was during his strong 2024.
Literally everything about this video gives me chills…
The crowd pop when Saquon breaks the tackle, him realizing he’s going to score & hitting his helmet, the celly…
Saquon Barkley is a Philadelphia sports legend in his first season here. Amazing.
pic.twitter.com/nabzkm0sU2— Josh Reynolds (@JoshReynolds24) January 20, 2025
So, if Barkley is so great, why should you sell?
For starters, this year was only the third time in his pro career that Barkley remained healthy and available for an entire season. It was also just the second season the former Giant has rushed for over 1,000 yards in his past five. Worse, every running back to top 2,000 rushing yards in a season has seen their rushing total decline by at least 27.3% the following year.
Now, you may ask, if I am trading Barkley… what should I ask for him?
Well, yours truly traded Barkley for two first-round rookie picks this past December, but that was during a fantasy playoff push in which my squad was eliminated early, and another contender lost two key starters. We also benefited from a league with no trade deadline, allowing me to demand a peak price at the ideal time.
With the fantasy playoffs done, the drive and desire to add Barkley is cooling. However, the superstar’s playoff performance may be stirring the desires of some dynasty contenders. Before the Eagles are eliminated, you should message an RB-needy contender and offer them Barkley for two first-round rookie picks. Be willing to settle for a mid-tier first and a second.
Breece Hall, New York Jets
Calling me the low man on Breece Hall in the dynasty community would be fair. Most Rotoballer rankers continue to consider the Iowa State alum one of the 12 best position players in fantasy, with my rankings the exception.
From an athleticism perspective, Hall simply hasn’t looked like the player he was before his knee injury two years ago. While that was easy to write off in 2023, as some backs take a full season to return to form from those injuries, Hall’s 2024 film still did not show the explosiveness he had as a rookie.
The advanced metrics didn’t indicate he was anything special, either.
The NFL had 56 running backs with at least 74 rush attempts in 2024. Amongst those backs, PFF ranked Hall 38th in their run grade metric. The Jets’ lead back was also 23rd in yards after contact per attempt, 22nd in breakaway play percentage, and 14th in explosive runs. In other words, plenty of backs did more with less this past season.
None of this is to say Hall cannot recapture his old form or continue to produce for fantasy. Based on volume and age alone, Hall is an RB1 in dynasty. However, the metrics, the film, and the production all point to Hall being overvalued. That’s especially true when considering many dynasty analysts who put him ahead of Drake London, Brian Thomas Jr., and Marvin Harrison Jr.
If some contender in your league needs an RB and has London or Thomas Jr., you should inquire about a swap immediately. Perhaps they’ll see Hall is ranked higher in consensus dynasty rankings and accept without thinking too much about it?
A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles
A.J. Brown is coming off a down year, so "selling high" on him may be a misnomer to some. However, plenty of people still view the Ole Miss alum as one of the 15 best position players for dynasty, including Rotoballer and FantasyPros rankers. His talent, age, and name recognition all make him a fine buy-or-sell candidate in dynasty, depending on your team’s composition.
If you’re rebuilding and want to get younger, remind your buyers that Brown will be 28 years old for all of 2025 and has 1,000 yards receiving in four of the past five seasons. Note that he’s missed just four games in three years and that Barkley is bound to regress next year, leaving more meat for Brown to take off the bone.
As for what to expect in return for Brown, make peace with the fact you won’t get what you could a year ago.
While some of us dealt Brown for the right to draft Malik Nabers prior to last year’s rookie drafts, there’s no way you’ll get Nabers for the veteran now. Instead, see if you can get pick 1.02 in this year's rookie draft or Ladd McConkey plus a second-round pick.
Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings
Addison is coming off a red-hot end to the 2024 season, in which he averaged a strong 16.5 PPR points per game in his final eight contests. If you factor out the Vikings’ playoff game and final regular season contest, in which Sam Darnold and the entire offense went cold, Addison actually averaged 20.9 PPR points to close the season.
That blazing pace has pushed Addison into the WR2 tier for many dynasty rankers. In fact, it has made the sophomore sensation the 12th highest-ranked dynasty receiver for one prominent CBS ranker.
Unfortunately, logic and data suggest that Addison’s current dynasty value is an overreaction to his strong finish. Reasons to expect regression include the Vikings' unsettled quarterback situation, Justin Jefferson remaining WR1 on the team, and Addison's off-field issues having already impacted his playing time with Minnesota once.
This is just such a gross play
Jordan Addison had a touchdown waiting for him pic.twitter.com/wr0SxsIRJv
— Football Analysis (@FBallAnalysisYT) January 15, 2025
Adding to our concerns about Addison as a dynasty WR1 is that he was not an elite physical talent at Pittsburgh or USC. His film was that of a savvy route runner who would be a high-end WR2 in the NFL, not a true WR1. There are still limitations to Addison’s game which could be exposed if he leaves Kevin O’Connell’s offense or becomes a defense’s primary focus.
Currently, CBS has Addison ranked ahead of London, Garrett Wilson, Tee Higgins, and Rashee Rice. You should trade Addison for any of those players straight up if you can. You should also consider flipping the Viking for Zay Flowers or Rome Odunze, plus a second-round draft pick.
Joe Mixon, RB, Houston Texans
Mixon will be 29 this coming season, so trading him for too much in dynasty will be difficult.
That said, the former Bengal just had the most efficient year of his career in Houston. He capped that off with a strong game against a Kansas City defense that allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs in the NFL. Factor in the likelihood that Houston will improve its offensive line this offseason, and there are several ways to sell Mixon to an RB-needy team.
Your best bet is to try and move Mixon before those in your league figure out just how deep this rookie RB class is. Try packaging Mixon with a third-round rookie pick in exchange for two second-round picks. Then, be willing to negotiate down to a 2026 second and a 2025 third-round pick for Mixon alone.
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Cleveland Browns
You don’t sell Jeudy unless you can find a manager who believes in the receiver’s breakout 2024 season. If you get an offer of a second-round rookie pick in exchange for Jeudy, decline and hold onto the veteran with the hope his 2024 season was real.
However, if you can get a mid-tier first-round rookie pick (1.05-1.09) for Jeudy, you must consider it. His 2024 breakout was heavily dependent on unrealistic volume that was aggravated by the presence of Jameis Winston and the absence of Cedric Tillman. Both factors won't exist next year, though the Browns drafting a quarterback could certainly change the math.
Conversely, the possibility of Cleveland drafting Shedeur Sanders could make Jeudy easy to sell. You may be able to hook someone on the potential of a Jeudy-to-Sanders duo, whether it happens or not. In fact, that potential pairing could be your strongest selling point for Jeudy, so peddle that angle before Sanders refuses to play in Cleveland.
Dynasty Buy Lows
Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears
There is no getting around Odunze's disappointing rookie season. For a player who was graded as one of the 10 best receiving prospects of the past decade, the Washington alum’s rookie season was an unmitigated disappointment. Worse, his struggles with separation in the pros were nothing new, as I noted the same problem in his 2024 Draft profile.
However, the disappointments of Odunze’s 2024 season could prove a blessing in disguise for dynasty managers savvy enough to buy low on him before the tide begins to turn.
A defense of Odunze must begin with Shane Waldron's poor play designs, including personnel groupings and spacing that was confoundingly ineffective. Odunze’s production was also hurt by Caleb Williams’ inconsistent processing and the strong competition for targets/snaps he faced from Keenan Allen, D.J. Moore, and others.
Because a lot of Odunze’s struggles were not his own, it’s easy to expect the hiring of Ben Johnson will fix many of the former Husky’s problems. Also helpful is the likelihood that Allen and his 121 targets will leave town. You put all that together with Odunze’s talent, and you have a highly undervalued dynasty asset whose value may never be lower.
Ben Sinnott, Washington Commanders
We have been spoiled by the recent onslaught of rookie tight ends who exceed expectations. Rarely do tight ends perform as rookies, at least for fantasy purposes, yet 2024 marked the second straight year that a rookie ended up fantasy’s most valuable player at the position.
Historically, that just doesn’t happen.
Consider that George Kittle started just seven games as a rookie, collecting 63 targets on a bad 49er offense with no other good receiving options. Also, note that Travis Kelce missed nearly all of his rookie season due to injury, Jimmy Graham started just five games and got 44 targets, and Jake Ferguson saw just 22 targets playing behind Dalton Schultz in his maiden voyage.
Sinnott’s rookie stats were decidedly worse than all the players we just listed, save Kelce and his injury-plagued debut. However, we have no reason to think Sinnott’s lack of production was due to a lack of talent or skill. Rather, all signs indicate the rookie simply sat while a savvy veteran (Zach Ertz) performed well for a Commanders team in contention all season long.
Given Ertz’s age, it should be only a matter of time before Sinnott becomes Washington’s starting tight end. After all, they invested a second-round pick in him just last year. With that in mind, it's wild to think a tight end potentially attached to Jayden Daniels for a decade may be on your waivers or available for a late third-round pick.
Adonai Mitchell, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Ranked as WR56 on FantasyPros' dynasty rankings, Mitchell struggled with drops and was one of many who suffered from Anthony Richardson's inaccuracy. In fact, the presence of Richardson likely suppresses the value of multiple talented Colts wide receivers in the minds of dynasty managers.
However, we must remember that Mitchell, Josh Downs, and Michael Pittman Jr. are all talented young receivers. Also, Richardson absolutely must improve his accuracy this coming year, or Indianapolis will likely move on from him next offseason. NFL teams have shown little patience with raw passers, and the Colts have benched AR15 once already.
Mitchell remains an athletic receiver with good size, speed, and route running. He also showed no major maturity concerns as a rookie, which was a red flag for him coming out of college. If the former Longhorn can get his drops under control and earn more accurate throws, he could still become a strong flex for your fantasy team.
Jordan Mason, RB, San Francisco 49ers
You should be looking to buy Mason right now because he's valued as Christian McCaffrey’s backup instead of a potential starter on a different team.
Mason is a restricted free agent this spring, meaning a cash-strapped 49ers team must tender him an attractive offer or risk losing him. Given the cap implications of the inevitable Brock Purdy extension, San Fran may decide to low-ball Mason's tender or elect not to tender him at all. That would make him a viable free-agency target for Dallas, Pittsburgh, New England, or Las Vegas.
With that in mind, consider that Mason’s current dynasty trade cost (a third-round rookie pick) is commensurate with his current role as CMC’s backup. That value does not consider his potential as a starter in Vegas or Dallas, where he could become a high-end RB2 for several seasons.
Cedric Tillman, WR, Cleveland Browns
Tillman saw an immediate spike in usage and fantasy value when Winston took over as Cleveland’s starting quarterback. For the first three weeks of Winston’s reign, Tillman was his clear top target, averaging 21.5 PPR points per game. After that Jeudy began to take on a bigger role, then Tillman was knocked out for the rest of the year with a concussion.
Given the whimper with which Tillman's season ended, it's no surprise that his fantasy stock has fallen. He is currently WR74 according to composite dynasty rankings and is going in the 18th round of non-Superflex startup mocks. In short, he's being left in a tier with Tyler Lockett, Ja'Lynn Polk, Cam Akers, and others with little or no dynasty value.
While this Tennessee alum may never repeat his three-week run with Winston, he will only be 25 years old this season. He also stands over 6'3" tall with long arms and knows how to use his frame to wall off defenders. Those are qualities NFL teams value, especially when a player has shown a burst of production like this one did in 2024.
At worst, Tillman will return value on his current ADP just by being touchdown-dependent at the end of your dynasty bench. At best, he will earn a bigger role on a better offense and give you WR3 or better production for several years to come. Either way, he’s a low-cost asset who offers little risk and noteworthy upside.
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals
Coming out of Ohio State, no one would have called Harrison a “burner.” Rather, he was an all-around receiver prospect whose greatest strengths were his size, hands, and route running. There were even questions about his speed when he refused to run the 40-yard dash at the Combine.
So, color some of us surprised when Arizona designated the rookie as their primary deep threat in 2024.
This year, Arizona gave Harrison the third-deepest ADOT (Average Depth of Target) amongst all NFL receivers with at least 85 targets. That was an apparent misuse of the player, given his strengths/weaknesses on film and his profile. Rather than find ways to involve him early and often, the Cardinals ran him straight down the sideline as if he were a decoy.
This is all to say a lot of Harrison's struggles as a rookie were due to his usage. It’s that same usage that likely led to Kyler Murray’s defensiveness when he was asked about Harrison’s target share. After all, how often is Murray supposed to throw deep balls down the sideline to a player who doesn’t have ideal deep speed?
How high should Marvin Harrison Jr. be drafted next year?
— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) January 6, 2025
While the same offensive coaches are set to return next year, their jobs will be in jeopardy if they don't adapt their scheme to Arizona’s personnel. In other words, given their talent, the Cardinals should score a lot more touchdowns. If that doesn’t happen in 2025, Harrison could get a new play-caller and maybe even a quarterback who is more inclined to maximize his talent.
Prospects to Watch
Jack Bech, WR, TCU
(Staking My Flag Now!)
It’s just January, but multiple dynasty rookie mocks have been done on multiple prominent fantasy websites. Bech was not drafted in any of them.
When you turn on TCU’s offense to watch Savion Williams, the more heralded receiver in purple, you should quickly notice Bech. He’s the guy running crisper routes, getting open more consistently, and bringing down everything thrown his way. Meanwhile, Williams is the massive athlete dropping passes in such an acrobatic way that people drool over his upside.
If Bech continues to fly under the fantasy radar this spring, he will be among the best bargains for dynasty. He plays like a professional receiver, and his play speed is underrated, especially considering he’s a former tight end. The floor is high for Bech, but the ceiling isn’t low, making him one of the best sleeper options in dynasty drafts.
Quinshon Judkins, RB, Ohio State
Few dynasty and NFL Draft rankers have Judkins inside the top five of their RB rankings, but they should. He has an athletic but strong build with a powerful stiff arm and great contact balance, plus he runs with good vision. He isn't an elite receiver and can be caught from behind, but he is a capable pass catcher and blocker with a strong balance between the tackles.
Quinshon Judkins in the Natty:
➖9.1 Yards Per Carry
➖121 Total Yards
➖3 TD’sAccomplishing this off JUST 13 Touches makes it even more impressive..
Reminder:
➖Age: 21
➖Size: 6’0, 220 lbsYou better believe that Quinshon Judkins’ NFL Draft Stock just rose tremendously pic.twitter.com/a01jLMH4W6
— Austin Abbott (@AustinAbbottFF) January 22, 2025
Judkins may not be a first-round rookie pick in most Superflex drafts, but he should be. You should be comfortable taking him between picks 1.10 and 1.12 in SF rookie drafts. He will be an NFL team’s lead running back at some point in his career, barring injury or a disastrous landing spot.
Harold Fannin Jr., TE, Bowling Green
Many dynasty managers know of Fannin already, but some don't. While he was a prolific pass catcher at Bowling Green, some will write off his numbers because he played against “lesser” competition. However, he also rose to the occasion when his team played “real” opponents, as he put up 137 yards on 11 catches against Penn State.
Expect Fannin to climb draft boards in both the NFL Draft and dynasty as the spring progresses, but he currently sits outside the top-tier of TEs on many draft lists. If you play in a TE Premium league, you may want to position yourself with an early second-round rookie pick before people start falling for this TE class. That should position you well for this high-upside option.
Kyren Lacy, WR, LSU
Kyren Lacy jumped out as a 2025 sleeper when evaluating the tape of Nabers, Thomas Jr., and Daniels last year. He isn’t on par with those players, but he showed enough to stand out next to them and bear watching this fall. The hope was he could be a valuable sleeper for dynasty, if he got his character concerns under control.
Unfortunately, Lacy’s 2024 film remained promising, while his off-field issues only worsened.
As of this moment, Lacy is facing a felony charge for Negligent Homicide in which a former Marine died. If he were convicted of the charge, it could end his life as he knows it and kill any chance he has in the NFL. For good reason, some NFL teams or fantasy managers may have already removed the LSU product from their draft boards based just on the accusation.
However, the NFL has a long history of forgiving talented players who resolve serious criminal matters short of prison. For that reason, fantasy managers willing to roster volatile characters must consider Lacy. He is a strong contested catch receiver who is effective in the red zone, has a feel for the boundaries, and could be a bargain in the fourth round of rookie drafts.
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