Dynasty Fantasy Football Trap Picks - 2025 NFL Rookies To Think Twice About Drafting

February 14, 2025

John's dynasty fantasy football busts - 2025 NFL rookies to avoid drafting in dynasty leagues. His trap pick rookies to think twice about before drafting.

Using a first-round pick on a player that ends up falling well short of expectations can set your team back massively in dynasty fantasy football. Even if they end up performing decently, your league mates' teams can take strides ahead of yours if they have better fortune with their picks.

Last year's trap pick was wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. The haul you could have received if you traded that pick away was significant, and you could have ended up with WRs Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., or Ladd McConkey, all of whom played far better than Harrison. Yet consensus was firm that MHJr was the best pick. Turns out, they're not always right.

This year, there are players that have shown significant red flags. Even if they are not bad players, they are substantially overrated, and you miss out on a potentially great player that you could get while acquiring even more assets by trading back. Let's break down this year's biggest trap picks.

Kaleb Johnson, RB, Iowa

The most obvious trap pick is Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson. There are at least six RBs who are superior athletes, all of whom also have elite production in their final seasons. Johnson isn't a bad RB, he's just been made to look elite by an elite offensive line. And it's massively important to separate who should be credited and to what degree for RB production.

Johnson enjoyed absurdly good blocking all season. He was praised for his vision, but seeing wide-open gaps isn't an elite RB skill. He likely knew where the holes would open up from practice and coaching. Rarely did his OL not beat the hell out of the opposing defensive line in run-blocking, and even second-level blocks were often well executed.

Kaleb Johnson has the best vision in this draft class at RB, always love watching the tape of Kaleb, a promising prospect. pic.twitter.com/EycrMIfCcn

— Andy 🏈 (@CUandyy) February 10, 2025

Elite vision comes from identifying hard-to-see, small creases at various levels of the defense and exploiting them. Instead, Johnson often runs through gaping chasms in the defense and gets the acceleration to the second level. On plays like these, the defenders are so far away from him to start the play that they have no chance of catching up. It's not like his top speed is stellar.

Kaleb Johnson - Iowa Hawkeyes

-- Tactical zone worker with the needed patience to be a primary option.

-- Plus between the ears traits, understands & reacts accordingly to downhill pressure. pic.twitter.com/YGxZN5oal7

— AngeloFF (@angelo_fantasy) January 28, 2025

It's not difficult to look at his highlight reel and find a place to pause during one of his runs where no defender has a shot at catching him due to the blocking. "Would this happen in the NFL" is always a great question to ask, and no team has run-blocking this effective at the next level, because NFL defenders are so much better.

Kaleb Johnson has good vision and had a good feel for the flow of the defense. He will occasionally miss cut back lanes simply because he is going full throttle forward through open holes. He makes a good cut back against the flow of the defense here. pic.twitter.com/msT1jykTT2

— Thomas Martinez (@BoltsDraftTalk) January 6, 2025

It's easy to get caught up in the numbers and leak effusive praise for players while ignoring clear deficiencies. Johnson was caught by a defender simply getting a hand on his hip on this play. He's praised for his tackle-breaking ability, but horrible tackle attempts should be ignored in analysis.

In a monster RB draft class, you should ignore Johnson. The production was elite, but the tape doesn't show anything extraordinary, other than the run blocking at Iowa.

Luther Burden III, WR, Missouri

NFL scouting somehow has a serious inability to gauge the route-running abilities of receivers in college and how well they will succeed in the NFL. That's how you get draft profiles that praise New England Patriots WR Ja'Lynn Polk for their route-running abilities when they're actually just terrible.

We're all thus left to our own devices when sniffing out whether a pass-catcher can actually run good routes or whether the consensus is just wrong. Turns out, what works in college against inferior defenses won't always work against the far superior NFL defenders.

There's also a major issue with the effusive praise that mediocre receivers get. Even when they clearly lack skills that they need to succeed in the NFL, they're often drowned with analysts' adulation for basic things like running a three-yard out route and catching a pass with five yards of cushion from the matched-up defender.

Luther Burden III is thunder from the slot, a position where there is usually lightning ⛈️

He excels after the catch, powering and eluding his way to 64 career missed tackles forced. He has solid hands even when contested.

He’s currently my WR2 despite a down year in 2024. pic.twitter.com/zFvuAMiyUs

— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) January 15, 2025

That's what we see on the second play here. WRs, and offenses in general, can't make a living at the next level on easy dink-and-dunk short-yardage plays like this one. Burden is quite good after the catch, but very few receivers feast mainly in this area as well. The ones that do are massive outliers (Deebo Samuel Sr.) or players you should never have taken early in the first round (Khalil Shakir).

For some reason, Burden is seen as a top-6 rookie pick in this year's draft. It doesn't matter if a WR class is weak because the WRs just get pushed up the board anyway, which is a strange thing to see. Burden does not possess the savvy or explosiveness out of his breaks to consistently win the way the vast majority of NFL wideouts must win, mainly beating defenders with great routes.

4 Bulldogs had a chance … and none of them had a chance with Luther Burden. A problem. pic.twitter.com/LlctqKhYjS

— Harold R. Kuntz (@HaroldRKuntz3) September 2, 2022

Heap as much praise on him as you want, but NFL linebackers and defensive backs who can't make those tackles usually don't make the active roster for any team. Burden has a limited skillset, and in a vacuum, it seems good, but he has some serious work to do to become an X in the NFL.

He has the skills to be a gadget player right now. That's not to say he can't develop. But a better strategy is to trade down from this pick, and if you want to bet on Burden's development, wait until after his disappointing rookie season to do so. You'll avoid a rough freshman year and probably get him for cheaper.

Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State

It's easy to get caught up in a player's physical talents, but at the tight end position, subtlety is sometimes more important. The primary way pass-catchers win is by running great routes. In 2023, Dalton Kincaid was seen as a better TE prospect than Sam LaPorta, yet LaPorta clearly ran the better routes, often looking like a big wide receiver on the field.

Tyler Warren is so versatile and one of the best playmakers i've seen at the TE position, excellent hands and great in YAC scenarios.

Could definitely go Top-10 this April pic.twitter.com/OAYUQ64XRe

— Andy 🏈 (@CUandyy) February 8, 2025

Social media is full of clips of him running basic routes and getting open because the defense didn't cover him. For fantasy football, you want a TE who is able to run traditional WR routes and execute them well. It's hard to be impressed with blown coverages by the defense.

Warren is a bulldozer, but that doesn't work consistently in the NFL. Nobody breaks tackles on all their receptions, and the human body can't stand up to that kind of punishment consistently. Linebackers will laugh at your tight end's attempts to run them over and keep going.

Tyler Warren is an elite tight end prospect.

He’s cleaned up drops (15% in 2023 to 2.8% drop rate in 2024) and become an elite contested catcher (61.9%).

Warren is also a MONSTER after the catch, forcing 30 missed tackles in 2024.

TE1 for the 2025 Draft. pic.twitter.com/z5xmJ8df1O

— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) January 17, 2025

It's great to be elite at making contested catches in CFB, but there are far more pass catchers that have consistent success due to their great route-running. Almost none maintain high contested catch rates in the NFL throughout their careers because defenses are just on another level.

There are too many variables to overcome in the NFL for this. Ironically, part of the reason Kincaid was viewed as better than LaPorta was that Kincaid had such great hands in college. Then he drops a crucial pass on a hero throw that knocks the Bills out of the playoffs.

Similarly, the previously mentioned Polk supposedly had the best hands in college football in 2023, yet they seemed to be bricks at the next level. It's strange how NFL scouting hasn't adjusted to this reality and instead continues to drool over something that doesn't translate linearly to the pros.

Tyler Warren is a weapon. pic.twitter.com/y7vdWCcdN7

— Nick Penticoff (@NickPenticoff) February 8, 2025

That's not to say Warren isn't a good player. He's a versatile weapon, which is rare for someone at his position. But choosing a tight end in the first round is always very risky, and the position often takes time to develop in the NFL. Perhaps the emergence of LaPorta and Bowers in 2023 and 2024 will convince people that it's shifted, but those players are massive outliers.

Just as it is with Burden, letting someone else pick Warren and trading for him during a slump is a better idea. He's too raw as a route-runner for now. After one or two years of development, he should be much better.

Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado

For starters, this is an abnormally weak quarterback class. That doesn't mean there aren't good QBs in this class (well one good QB, Jaxson Dart), but Sanders isn't someone you want to be stuck with for long. He had a solid season for the Buffaloes in 2024, sure.

However, the ability to diagnose and handle pressure from opposing pass-rushers and avoid sacks is foundational for NFL QBs. Sanders can do neither. An inability to handle pressure leads to disastrous results for QBs and their offenses.

#Huskers Sack.

Jimari Butler knocks down Shedeur Sanders.

Ft. Huskers Radio Network🌽🚨 pic.twitter.com/SOCDb5EAZ0

— @HuskerEastNE (@HuskerEastNE) September 9, 2024

It's the quarterback's job to do something once the defense beats the offensive line. Sanders had multiple chances to throw the ball down the field or at least chuck it out of bounds when he was dead to rights. Often, you didn't even see him trying to do that.

It's a major red flag when a QB is sacked often without even having attempted to get some kind of play off. Accuracy is a fantastic trait to have, but if it all falls apart when the pressure is on, it's not exactly helpful. In the above play, Sanders should know that he doesn't have the speed to beat the defenders, and he takes too long to react to his right tackle being beaten.

Whether or not you excuse plays like this away, the fact remains that the results won't be different in the NFL without a major change. Sacks often ruin drives, and a QB who is prone to taking them will nearly always struggle at the next level.

I’m sorry, Shedeur Sanders is not a 1st round prospect and this is why. This is an egregious example of his pattern of taking too many BAD sacks. Having not learned as a three year starter to go down and not cost your team three points is alarming pic.twitter.com/6BddNQtoW6

— Anthony Russo (@Anthony_Russo97) December 29, 2024

"But what if he can just fix the sack problem" is a terrible way to approach this problem, too. Sack avoidance and dealing with pressure are actually a complex suite of skills bundled into one term. Pre and post-snap play diagnosis, speed, tackle-breaking ability, and knowing when to audible based on the defensive looks all play a role in stopping sacks from happening.

Sanders took some absolutely hideous sacks at Colorado. And while his offensive line deserves blame, the QBs who can create plays or at least avoid a sack and throw the ball away will always be better off when the pressure comes. Even good offensive lines get beat sometimes in the NFL.

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