Fantasy Football: Dynasty Buy Lows (Pre-Free Agency)

March 5, 2023

Chris Gregory takes a look at offers that you should make in your fantasy football dynasty leagues before free agency hits. It might help you get these guys on the cheap!

With the NFL Combine underway and free agency on the horizon, now is a good time to do a price check on dynasty assets you want to keep or add. Many might ask why we would do this now when so many variables are left to be decided. Why not wait until free agency is done and we know how those moves impact our players? Why not wait until after the NFL Draft is concluded, so rosters are all but finalized?

For an example of why fantasy managers should try to anticipate off-season moves and make deals before those moves happen, consider the trade of Antonio Brown several years back. The prevailing thought that offseason was the Steelers would trade Brown to the 49ers or the Bills. However, a few of us said the Raiders were the most likely team to pay for that headache. We also anticipated that trade wouldn’t work for either party. Both predictions proved true, and those who dealt Brown early really benefitted.

In situations like this, dynasty managers with a good gauge of the offseason can get fantastic value from undervalued or overvalued players. Maybe you added Christian Kirk for a 4^th rounder before free agency last year and watched his stock soar after he signed with Jacksonville? Or maybe you sold high on Cam Akers and can now afford to pick him back up for pennies? It's moves like those that can change a dynasty if you aren’t afraid to trust your gut and deal early. It’s those types of moves we are aiming for here. Note: Most proposed trade values below will be in terms of rookie draft picks for this year (2023). This is the easiest commodity to use when projecting dynasty trade values because it is a universal commodity that all dynasty managers have.

Quarterbacks to Buy Pre-Free Agency

Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers

Most media and fans view Trey Lance's demise as a foregone conclusion. Despite his youth, powerful arm, plus size, strong work ethic, underrated intelligence, and the fact he's played just two drives without injury or monsoon, most are eager to write him off. If you're not in that majority, there is a lot of potential value to be had in Lance, though.

One reason we like Lance is his potential to start for a good chunk of this coming season, if not the entire year. We still don't know when Brock Purdy will have surgery or what kind of surgery will be needed. The best-case scenario has Purdy healthy by Week 1 with little to no camp under his belt, but the worst-case scenario has him missing the whole season. In either instance, Lance should get a chance to earn this job long-term.

The second reason to buy low on Lance is the likelihood that some NFL team (the Titans?) will give him a real shot to be their long-term answer if SF doesn’t. There’s never been a time that the NFL didn’t need quarterback talent, and countless stars have been made out of reclamation projects. Remember, Steve Young, Drew Brees, Rich Gannon, Brett Favre, and others struggled with their first teams before putting up Hall of Fame caliber careers with new ones.

Offer in Superflex: Pick 1.06 (or 1.04 for Lance plus picks)

Offer in Non-Superflex: Late 2^nd or early 3^rd round pick

Malik Willis, Tennessee Titans

Let’s begin this discussion by making clear I was never particularly high on Willis as a prospect. While he was unquestionably the most gifted runner and had the strongest arm of last year’s weak quarterback class, he was always a raw prospect who struggled with accuracy and processing. He was also putrid when given a chance to play, eventually ceding his job to journeyman Josh Dobbs. If you thought Lance was ineffective in limited snaps, watch Willis.

That said, Willis’ current fantasy cost is low enough to consider him an interesting buy-low option in Superflex dynasties. While the Liberty product will likely be a below-average passer for his career, he only needs to become serviceable for fantasy purposes. If Willis can earn a starting job someday and complete just 60% of his passes, he should be a top-twelve QB, thanks to his legs. That potential is worth a third-round pick in this draft class.

Offer in Superflex: Late 3^rd-round pick

Offer in Non-Superflex: Waiver Claim

Sam Howell, Washington Commanders

Ron Rivera recently said Howell is "not our starter." He also stated Howell would "Come in as the QB1. He'll get a great opportunity to be our starter.” Clear as the toilet water in a Reno gas station, right?

Howell is the second passer on this list from last year's poor QB class, but he did display pro-caliber tools at North Carolina. While he was inconsistent in his one start for Washington last year, he had a big play with his arm and he added value with his legs. The potential mobility, his history of deep accuracy in college, and the opportunity he will have to start all make him a viable dynasty stash. He’s worth a mid-round rookie pick.

Offer in Superflex: Mid-3^rd round pick

Offer in Non-Superflex: Waiver Claim

Running Backs to Buy Pre-Free Agency

Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos

Javonte Williams is coming off the type of knee injury that forced J.K. Dobbins to miss the better part of two straight seasons. In fact, Williams suffered his injury approximately two months later in the season than Dobbins, meaning his return could be even more delayed than Dobbins’ was. That’s why you saw reports earlier this month saying Williams could miss some of 2023 and why many dynasty managers may sell low.

The upside with Williams is worth it if you can afford to wait on him or get him at a discount, though. The UNC product led all backs in broken tackles as a rookie, and he’s averaged an impressive 7.79 yards after the catch as a pro. Depending on whom Denver adds at the position, Williams could inherit a lead role in a Sean Payton offense that helped Alvin Kamara finish as RB8, RB2, RB8, and RB4 overall in FPPG during Payton’s final four seasons in New Orleans.

Offer: Pick 1.08

Alexander Mattison, Free Agent

Mattison has looked like a borderline RB1 whenever he's gotten starter-level snaps. He now enters free agency and stands to earn his first shot at a starter role. While the depth of the running back position in this NFL Draft could drive down demand for Mattison, there’s a decent chance some NFL team would rather pay him $6-7 million a year to be their guy for the next three years rather than spend an early draft pick or significant money on the position.

If he can get a lead role, the Boise State product has minimal wear on his tires, and he will be 25 this season. While his productivity has waned in the past two seasons, he remains an athletic back with a big body and the ability to catch passes. Teams like the Chiefs and Bengals could be amongst the teams interested at the right price. Both offenses would dramatically inflate Mattison’s fantasy price, especially if Cincy moves on from Joe Mixon.

Offer: Late 2^nd-round pick

Jordan Mason, San Francisco 49ers

As you've probably heard, a new RB has led the 49ers in rushing every season under Kyle Shanahan. You also may have heard the 49ers have suffered the most injuries in the NFL since Shanahan took over, and many of those have come at running back. In fact, the top two backs on this roster heading into next year (Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell) have struggled with multiple injuries throughout their careers.

Mason is a cheap insurance back who could pay off big in the right situation. In fact, Mason could earn a significant role if Mitchell were to go down, even if CMC stays healthy. Consider that Mason averaged a whopping 6.0 yards per carry last year, and he finished fifth in the NFL in yards after contact per rush attempt. With Mason on waivers in some leagues and costing very little in others, he’s worth a stash if you have a deeper bench.

Offer: Early 4^th-round pick

Wide Receivers to Buy Pre-Free Agency

Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts

One reason for optimism with Michael Pittman Jr. is the obvious upgrade he will see at QB this offseason. Indianapolis must draft a passer in the first round of this Draft, and it’s a strong possibility they trade up to #1 to get their preferred option. If that option is Alabama’s Bryce Young or Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, fantasy managers can expect more targets and big plays from Pittman this year. Young’s accuracy would provide a particularly big boost.

Another reason Pittman's stock should be higher is his seemingly strong hold on Indy's WR1 role. The Colts’ first three draft picks might all be dealt for their QB of choice. Meanwhile, most of their cap space should go to an offensive line that allowed the second-most sacks in the NFL last year. With Indy also needing to get younger in the secondary and add another pass rusher, it seems unlikely they will replace Pittman soon.

Offer: Pick 1.10

John Metchie, Houston Texans

John Metchie hopes to complete his cancer recovery in time to play football this season. If he can bounce back from that condition and return to form, he could provide the Texans with a good athlete and reliable route runner in the slot, which is why they used a second-round pick on him. That sort of role and ability could mean plenty of volume for Metchie, especially with the Texans expected to draft a rookie passer who should rely on him plenty.

Another reason to add Metchie is the chance he could become a short-term fantasy stock flip. Just imagine adding him for a low-cost today, only for positive health reports to come out sometime this month. Then imagine the Texans draft his college teammate (Bryce Young) in April. How many fantasy managers would buy into the Young-to-Metchie narrative? You might turn a 4^th round pick into a 2^nd just by sitting on Metchie for a month.

Offer: Late 3^rd-round pick

Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens

Preseason buzz was high for Bateman, and he started the year with two big touchdown catches in two games. Then Bateman's big plays dried up (they usually do), his target share never rose, and he ended his season early with an injury. Overall, it was a disappointing year for a former first-round pick with surprising speed and plus release.

One reason for optimism with Bateman is the fact Greg Roman is no longer Baltimore’s offensive coordinator. Roman’s offenses have only averaged 30+ pass attempts per game once, and all his running backs had to get hurt before he would call that style of game. Roman has never produced a top-ten fantasy wide receiver, either. So, Roman’s exit is a positive for any Ravens wide receiver.

That said, even if the exit of Roman doesn't lead to a big uptick in passing for Baltimore's offense, Bateman could still see his fantasy stock rise. The reason for that is Bateman may only be in Baltimore for a short time. The former Golden Gopher recently bashed Baltimore's GM on social media very directly. While this indiscretion could be forgiven, it could also lead to another Baltimore receiver being traded. A trade to almost any other NFL team would boost Bateman’s volume.

Offer: 2^nd round pick

Tight Ends to Buy Pre-Free Agency

Kyle Pitts (and Drake London), Atlanta Falcons

While listing Pitts here feels obvious, his stock has fallen too far not to consider him a buy-low. Pitts is coming off a very disappointing season that ended in injury. He's also stuck on an offense that, in its current form, seems keen to waste its most talented offensive playmakers in favor of running the ball up the middle 30+ times per game. That won't always be the case, though.

If Arthur Smith continues his style of play calling, it is inevitable that he and a seemingly pass-oriented front office will conflict. While Smith's team was certainly scrappy last year, Atlanta still needs to learn what Desmond Ridder is, and they won too many games to replace him easily. No matter how good Smith's run game may be, to truly compete in the NFL, he will need to call more pass plays and involve players like Pitts and Drake London.

If Smith doesn't adjust his style to get more out of those weapons, odds favor his ouster sometime soon. However, if some miracle occurs and he turns the Falcons into a contender without increasing Pitts and London's usage, other teams will call about those players. Talents like that won't be wasted for long, and savvy dynasty managers would be smart to buy low on both while concerns remain about their usage.

Offer for Pitts: Pick 1.05 (I wouldn’t accept this if I had Pitts)

Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals

Another relatively obvious pick, McBride was the top TE on many draft boards in last year’s Draft. However, he played sparingly this past season, which caused him to fall behind players like Greg Dulcich and Isaiah Likely in some dynasty circles.

That said, McBride flashed the potential of a low-end TE1 when he finally saw starter-level snaps late last season. That potential is particularly encouraging when you consider how little the past Cardinals’ regime used their TEs, and how often this new regime used theirs in Philly. We expect McBride’s usage to ascend in his second season, making him worth a stash in most formats.

Offer: Early 3^rd pick

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