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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Vegas 51: Luque vs. Muhammad 2 on 04/16/22. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
I'm writing this thing exactly a month after the last time the UFC scheduled an event in the UFC Apex based in Las Vegas, NV. The promo led by Dana White took a four-week detour in which fights never stopped happening but they did so at way different places: from London (England) to Jacksonville, FL by the way of Columbus, OH. Two Fight Night events and a numbered (UFC 273) later, we're back in the Apex this weekend... with no belts on the line but a spicy rematch right in front of us.
Luque and Muhammad faced each other for the first time all the way back in UFC 205 on Nov. 2016. More than five years have passed since then, but you can rest assured temperatures will be high when we reach the climax of the even with this even headliner as Muhammad tries to avenge his then-first-round-KO defeat. Before we reach that point, and although some fights were dropped from the original card, we'll get to watch a few other interesting bouts around multiple weight classes worth tracking. Not the flashiest of cards, but surely one where we will find unexpected results and pleasant surprises.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Vegas 51: Luque vs. Muhammad 2 on 04/16/22. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Vicente Luque, $8500 - vs. Belal Muhammad
Battle of experienced fighters with virtually the same number of trips to an octagon (Luque's fought 16 times to Belal's 15) but very different results while doing it. The records look virtually the same, actually, with Luque sporting a career 14-2 count compared to Muhammad's 11-3-1. Remove everything that happened before 2019, though, and they'd be 7-1 and 6-1-1 respectively, which can't be much closer if you ask me. Now, for fantasy purposes, those similar records are far from close to one another. Just a quick peek at Luque's salary over DK lets you know everything about why he's a much tastier play--even if he's quite more expensive than Muhammad.
Luque has reached 94+ DKFP in four straight fights, of course, because he finished all of them with two subs and two KOs, three of those four happening before even reaching the third round. That's Luque for you (he's indeed won just once via judges' decision). Muhammad, on the other hand, has topped that 94-DKFP mark just once in his career back in Feb. 2021 when he won a decision against Dhiego Lima. He has finished only one fighter (submission) since Sep. 2019 and only two in his whole career. The only thing at which Muhammad is better than Luque in the fantasy realm is the takedown points, though it's not that he has terrific TD-landing rates (other than his latest 7-of-9 he had pulled off 7-of-40 from 2019 on). I find it hard for Belal to upset the favorite here, with good odds Luque finds a way to finish Muhammad for the second time in their brief rivalry.
DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
T.J. Laramie, $7000 vs. Pat Sabatini
This fight is as contrasting as they get, though if we're honest we should be very pleased with whatever it can bring to us. That's mostly because both Sabatini and Laramie, although on short three- and one-fight UFC tenures, have yet to meet defeat. Sabatini has fought those three bouts in a span of seven months from late April 2021 to last November, and Laramie debuted back on Sep. 2020 and has yet to step inside an Octagon since. Not only that, but both fighters have one W each via first-round submission while Sabatini added two more via decision after 15 minutes of fighting time in those couple of outings.
Sabatini and Larami have yet to really showcase their full bag of talents, all things considered. Laramie has been inside the octagon for fewer than a minute of fighting time (submission in just 52 seconds) so his 0-for-1 takedowns and 0-for-4 in SS are pretty much neglectable. Sabatini hasn't been there for much longer, but the fact that he's logged a couple of 15-minute bouts (30 total minutes) in which he averaged just 1.6 and 3.0 SSA per minute is quite concerning. Yes, he landed 5-of-11 and 1-of-5 takedowns in those two outings, but that's the only thing saving his numbers in both the real and fantasy realms. If and only if one of these two is able to finish the other one, then maybe they become interesting DK plays approaching some 90-to-100 DKFP ceiling. If not, though, even if they end getting a decision-W you might be looking at a paltry 60-FP night from the winner. Not liking any of these two, but I'd side with Laramie getting his second finish and dropping Sabatini for the first time in the vet's UFC run.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Miguel Baeza, $8700 - vs. Andre Fialho
We're not even three months into Fialho's UFC career, just imagine. He's 28 years of age, though, so it's not that he's coming out of the womb as a pro fighter--he's actually a 10-5 MMA fighter as a whole--though he suffered his lone UFC defeat in his debut (and also only fight under the UFC banner, of course). Miguel Baeza, while having fought fewer times since he started doing it among pros (12 times, 10-2) has done so in Dana's promotion five times already starting back on Dec. 2019. The truth is that everything makes sense for Baeza to stay put in the UFC given his bullying start to his career there going 3-0 in his first three fights (in a span of just 13 months) with two KO victories and another W via submission--all of them inside the first two rounds.
Fialho debuted against Michael Pereira already in an undercard fight of a numbered event (UFC 270) last January. The striking volume was good (135 SSA, 9.0 per minute), though the landing rate left a lot to desire (45 SSL, 3.0 per minute, 33% accuracy). No takedowns did he land--nor attempt, for that matter. Baeza, on the other hand, has scored at least 52 points in four of his five UFC fights including one that he ended up losing. In his wins, he's never dropped below a 98-DKFP mark, though that has three early finishes baked into the results, something a little bit unpredictable. Even then, Baeza's always shown nice volume and landing rates, attempting 10+ SSA per minute and landing 50%+ of those in all but one fight so far in his UFC career. Fialho might or might not rebound, so it's much safer to side with Baeza here given the track record and reasonable/viable floor. That said, don't chase him crazily because he's definitely not worth a big gamble.
DraftKings MMA Women's Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Mayra Bueno Silva, $9300 - vs. Wu Yanan
If I'm correct it's been a while since we've had a true main-card fight-for-your-life bout like this one. I'm saying that because this truly is one of those odd ones. Mayra has done it five times in the UFC while racking up... one victory. Mayra is 1-3-1 in the promo since she debuted in 2018 and then proceeded to fight twice in 2020 and two more times in 2021. Wu Yanan, on the other hand, got her first and lone win in her second fight under the UFC banner and is boasting a 1-3 record with one fight each in 2017, 2018, 2019, and January of 2021--her last one.
These two have shown similar ceilings in their victories as they both got those Ws via first-round submission with eerily similar numbers. Mayra spent 4:55 minutes and finished 11-of-32 on SSL-SSA with no takedowns to her name, and Yanan finished her foe in 4:00 while landing 18-of-36 SSA and 0-of-1 attempted TDs. On a per-minute basis, Yanan has the edge on strike attempts and of course takedowns--Mayra has yet to go for even one in a single fight...). That said, Mayra has been quite active with four fights (no wins, though) since Mar. 2020 compared to Yanan's one-fight resume since the end of Aug. 2019. There is a reason why one fighter is tagged at $9.3K and the other one at a slate-lowest $6.9K, and why I'm siding with Mayra Bueno on Saturday even while not expecting any sort of fireworks.
