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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Vegas 45: Lewis vs. Daukaus on 12/18/21. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
The closing event of the year, folks. As sad as that sounds. Now, if you're coming here looking for fireworks and unexpected results such as last weekend's (I have yet to get out of shock-state after watching Amanda Nunes lose her belt), I'm afraid we're not going to get those. But if you're here to celebrate what has been a bounce-back year after the stupidly halted and derailed 2020 full of COVID crap, congratulations. You the real MVP and one of us always enjoying the good stuff.
We're entering the Apex for the nth time this Saturday, and although no gold is on the line to wrap 2021 up, the truth is that Dana at least reserved a top-weight HH affair between two mammoths in Derrick Lewis and Chris Daukaus to welcome Santa Claus to town. Not bad, if you ask me. Even less if you look down the card to find names such as those of Stephen Tompson, Angela Hill, Raphael Assuncao, or Cub Swanson just to name a few. Could have gotten much worse, so embrace the schedule... and enjoy the night, because we'll be off till past mid-January. Ugh.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Vegas 45: Lewis vs. Daukaus on 12/18/21. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Chris Daukaus, $8300 - vs. Derrick Lewis
Yes, we're sad because the UFC "season" is over this weekend and off until mid-January. No, we're not sad because this is probably the best non-title fight Dana could have come up with, all things considered. The last time we watched Lewis doing it was last August in a title fight against Ciryl Gane. He dropped that chance getting rocked in the third round... and thus went 0-2 in belt-on-the-line bouts after losing one via submission to Daniel Cormier all the way back on Nov. 2018.
Daukas, on the other hand, is a perfect 4-0 fighter with four knockouts in four fights, none of them happening past the 6:23 fighting-time mark. Damn, son. Daukaus is in the absolute 100th percentile in his early career, for real. He's needed just 811 seconds of brawling (13 minutes and a half, that is) to rack up four victories, four KOs, and 464 DKFP (116 a fight). He's never dropped below the 107 DKF mark. And yes, Derrick Lewis has two title fights under his belt and is fighting for the 22nd time, and prior to that aforementioned loss was 4-0 with two KOs to his favor and whatever. Too bad for DL, though, Daukaus is inevitable these days and he's about to put on a very serious claim to fight for that title as early as possible once we flip the calendar page.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Belal Muhammad, $7100 - vs. Stephen Thompson
I'm afraid Wonderboy is not so much anymore... See, I love Steph, but he's just on the wrong side of his career mountain these days. He lost his latest fight to Gilbert Burns last July, and since the year 2017 he's sitting at a 3-4 record that includes a lost title re-match after drawing in the prior fight against Tyron Woodley. Cold world, but the train has already left the station. Belal's ship, on the other hand, is far from leaving the dock. In fact, it might still have to arrive there.
Belal Muhammad is on a ridiculous 9-1-1 record in that same 2017-and-later time span. He's winning pretty much everything (the loss came on a 63-of-204 SS, 0-for-7 TD decision against Geoff Neal in 2019) he goes for, and he hasn't dropped a fight since Jan. 2019. The draw against Leon Edwards last March sucked (as every D does) but other than that Belal is freaking perfect. He throws massive amounts of significant strikes, lands north of 50% of them, and is an absolute adept at chasing takedowns (Thompson, on the other hand, has attempted two and landed none in his past 12 fights...). Gotta side with Muhammad on this one, as his winning seems to be the only possible outcome Saturday.
DraftKings MMA Women's Strawweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Amanda Lemos, $9500 - vs. Angela Hill
None of these two girls is a prospect. That, I'm sure of. Lemos is 34 and Hill is already 36, and although their UFC resumes are wildly different in terms of experience in the promo (the former has five fights, the latter as many as 16), the truth is that their tenures couldn't be more contrasting. Hill is boasting a 1-3 record since May of last year, and although that improves to an even 3-3 since the start of 2020, it's not that she has been horrid of late only winning one decision in the past near-20 months.
Lemos, on the other hand, debuted in the UFC all the way back in 2017 with a KO-loss, stayed off the circuit until Dec. 2019, and since that moment on she's only known victory going 4-0 in her most recent bouts, all of them taking place in the last 24 months. Lemos has one submission, a decision, and two KO-win fights in her resume. Those two KOs took place this very year, none of them more than nine months ago, and the last one (in July) was an astonishing 35-second one in which all Lemos needed was to connect 7 SS of her 13 SSA to drop Montserrat Conejo and score herself 103.5 DKFP. Her other three victories averaged an even better 106.8 DK points. Imagine not rostering Lemos this weekend given her ridiculous upside, no matter the sky-high price.
DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Ricky Simon, $9200 - vs. Raphael Assuncao
Classic vet-on-a-losing-skid vs. younging-on-an-ascending-path, this bout. As many as 10 years of age separate these two, with Raphael on the wrong side of that equation. And on the wrong side of results, too. Assuncao is 0-3 since the start of 2019 and although he had four straight wins prior to that slump, it's not that we're talking about any sort of "recent" results when it comes to that winning span. Ricky, is on a three-fight winning streak himself, those three taking place in a much fresher 2020-and-on time frame.
Simon has one submission and KO each to his name career-wise, but he also got knocked out cold as recently as Jul. 2019. Nothing to worry about here, folks. Even in a potential worst-case scenario, Simon is the man to bet on this weekend when it comes to fantasy contests. This man's grappling upside is just ridiculous, bordering the insane. Simon has attempted at least 9 takedowns in all four last fights landing 26-of-46 of those total attempts for an impressive, nearly impossible 60% success rate. The striking volume isn't mind-blowing, sure, but he more than makes up for it with that mat game. Lock for a 70+ DKFP floor with upside to get into the 100+ realm easily.
DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Darren Elkins, $7400 - vs. Cub Swanson
These two combine for 44 fights in the UFC. They have been part of "just" five of them in the past two years, but hey, it's not that we can ask for much more. Swanson and Elkins have very similar career arcs and obviously, at this point, they are on the downside more than ascending toward great achievements. Swanson is entering the Octagon carrying a 2-4 record since the start of 2018 while Elkins is at a 3-4 losing one himself in that same span. Now, that said, Swanson is 1-1 (he got KO'd in his last one) and Elkins 2-1 (two Ws in a row including a KO in his last fight) since May of last year.
Elkins is bringing something to the cage that Swanson is definitely not: takedown prowess--and in bunches, while at it. Elkins has attempted 2-21-13 takedowns in his last three fights and has an average of 6.3 attempts per fight in his career. That's absolutely fantastic. Even better, he's not missed on succeeding at landing at least one TD (in fights he's tried for one at least) in eight straight bouts. Uh, oh. Swanson edges Elkins on the striking side of the game--not by much, though--but the takedown upside and its higher scores and value make Elkins my favorite play among these two, even if the result of this fight is a little bit in the air.
