RADIO
DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC 279: Chimaev vs. Diaz on 09/10/22. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
This weekend will mark the second time this year that we get a "numbered" UFC event without a single title fight baked into it. And it sucks. The last time it happen was at the beginning of March when Masvidal faced Covington. Truth be told, as many as four title fights were scheduled to headline the card at one point or another but luck didn't have it and we ended up watching that no-title showdown back then.
We're now facing another stinker if only in terms of the gold (not) put on the line. Similarly to what happened in March, there should be a fight between BW champ Aljamain Sterling and former champion T.J. Dillashaw happening this weekend, but that was delayed to UFC 280 next October. At least we will have two title fights in a month. Anyway, let's enjoy the return of Nate Diaz, the greatness of Khamzat Chimaev, and the catchweight fight pitting Kevin Holland against Daniel Rodrigues while we can and focus on the future when the time demands that.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC 279: Chimaev vs. Diaz on 09/10/22. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Khamzat Chimaev, $9600 - vs. Nate Diaz
Five fights versus 23 bouts doesn't look very balanced, does it? That's what we're getting this weekend as WW no. 3 contender--yet not the champ, thus the lower allure of this UFC 279 event--Khamzat Chimaev faces ever-present, forever-fighting Nate Diaz.
Was it not for his still-short resume, Chimaev could (and most probably would) be the no. 1 contender to snatch the belt from the honcho of the division. Only time and getting more and more reps under his belt (no pun intended) will fix that for Chimaev, and although Nate Diaz might be a bit cooked these days this fight will still make for a can't-miss event.
Chimaev is more than a few tiers above Diaz these days. He has won five in a row and has yet to lose a single UFC fight since debuting back in July of 2020. Chimaev, in fact, counted his fights by early finishes up until his latest one last April when he went to the judges decision for the first time in nearly two years. Prior to that: submission, KO, KO, and another submission with none of those four bouts lasting more than 6:12 minutes and three ending inside the first round.
Diaz has lost two fights in a row (one via KO, the latest one against now-champ Leon Edwards via decision) and has not fight for over a year. On top of that, Diaz just "recently" returned to the fighting circuit in Aug. 2019 after leaving it in Aug. 2016 and staying three full years on the shelves after the Conor McGregor Saga and his ultimate defeat to the Irish showman.
This fight looks to have a clear favorite and there is not much point in betting on Diaz unless you're a nostalgic lover. Yes, Diaz is hella rugged and will do it all to come out as the winner of the bout and the only man able to stop Chimaev's masterful run of victories. But Diaz is clearly past his peak, never reached a similar level to that of Chimaev now even at the peak of his powers, and will probably be early-finish fodder for the up-and-coming Swede title-fight performer.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Li Jingliang, $9000 - vs. Tony Ferguson
Tony "El Cucuy". This man. Tony definitely doesn't give a F(erguson), I guess. Ferguson is stepping up the weight ladder to face Li Jingliang this weekend at the WW scales. This is not the first time Ferguson moves up to WW after he already became the champion of The Ultimate Fighter 13 in 2011 fighting at that weight, though it's been more than 11 years for him now as part of the Lightweight ranks so we'll see how this comeback goes for him.
Jingliang comes off alternating wins and losses in his past five fights getting all the way back to a victory over Elizeu Zaleski in Aug. 2019. Li, though, is coming off a KO victory and, in fact, Li has earned wins only via KO in his four last victories. He lost one via decision and one via submission in that time, boasting an even 2-2 since the start of the 2020 calendar year. That, of course, compares very positively to Ferguson's 0-4 record in that same two-plus year span.
All things considered, though, it can be argued that Li has been fighting lesser fighters than Ferguson in their past four respective fights with Li facing opposition into the 83rd DKFP percentile on average compared to the latter's 85th-percentile opponents, including a title fight in May 2020 against Justin Gathje (90th percentile). The only time Jinglian faced a similarly strong fighter (Chimaev, 99th) he lasted all of 3:16 minutes in the fight before getting submitted...
This is not to say that Ferguson will defeat Jinglian, far from it. The former is clearly cooked or at least that's how he's looked every time we've seen it out there in the past two years. The best stat line that Ferguson has put up in his last three fights reads a putrid 20-of-50 significant strikes landed, no takedowns attempted, and 10.0 DKFP in his most recent defeat to Michael Chandler (over five minutes of fighting time). His last 15-minute fight, even though it sounds impossible to be true, earned Tony 7.5 DKFP... Ridiculous.
This is Jingliang's fight to lose and anything other than a W here would be 1) an incredible surprise and 2) a true embarrassment.
DraftKings MMA Catchweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Daniel Rodriguez, $7500 - vs. Kevin Holland
According to Holland, this fight was initially going to take place at the WW mark of 170lbs. By the looks of it, Rodriguez was the man missing on that mark by a good bunch, not even getting to 175lbs. Or at least, that's what Holland has made public in recent interviews. Anyway, and no matter the scales, Holland is taking on the strongest opponent he's ever faced on a DKFP-average basis: Rodriguez ranks inside the 97th percentile in FP per fight.
Rodriguez is one of the best UFC assets around. He's a 6-1 fighter and although his loss to Nicolas Dalby look worse by the day (Dalby ranks into the mediocre 47th DKFP percentile) Rodriguez has been a rather impressive MMA performer in the UFC. His ongoing three-fight winning streak took place from April to August of 2021 and he'll be stepping into the Octagon for the first time in a year this weekend.
Holland has had his moments but never quite got things totally right, missing on any title fight even though he's already a 15-fight veteran of the UFC--having debuted in 2018, just four years ago. Holland is coming off two victories (both of them finishing in the second round with a Submission and a KO) and he was part of a No-Contest bout facing Kyle Daukaus in Oct. 2021.
These two men are true strikers that don't overthink their gameplans for even a second. They have combined for 11 takedown attempts in 17 fights since the start of 2020 and they have pulled just four of those (three by Holland) in that time. None of the two has gotten anyone to the mat via TD in the past year and a half, though. When it comes to striking opponents, though, Rodriguez has the massively clear edge over Holland.
Rodriguez attempts 15.2 SSA per minute compared to Holland's 7.3 figure when looking at their most-recent seven fights. That difference is enough to create a large gap in DKFP, which is our main concern here. Add in the fact that Holland has had just two fights above 23 DKFP since the start of 2021 while Rodriguez has only dropped below 94 DKFP twice in his career (debut in Feb. 2020) and you get why Rodriguez is the favorite here and the man to side with this Saturday.
DraftKings MMA Women's Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Macy Chiasson, $7400 - vs. Irene Aldana
None of Aldana or Chiasson have fought for a UFC belt to this date, though the former is inching closer than ever after having defeated Yana Kunitskaya in her most recent fight (July 2021) and sitting at the no. 4 contender spot in the division. Chiasson, on the other hand, is a borderline contender much lower down the ranks (no. 10) trying to jump some names with a W this weekend.
The problem with Chiasson ranking much lower than Aldana even though both are 3-2 in their most recent fighting spans is that the former has not faced any super tough opponents other than Raquel Pennington (75th percentile in DKFP per fight) compared to Aldana's three 70th+ percentile opponents faced (only one victory, though) in that same span of five fights.
These two come with very distinct and opposite styles. Aldana is all about striking and that's been her calling card since she debuted back in 2016 landing 108 of 256 attempted SS. She averages nearly 15 SSA/min (from 2019 on) landing a few (less than 40% on average) of those but putting up impressive volume numbers that always make for good fantasy plays.
Chiasson, on the opposite side of the spectrum, has topped 140 SSA only once and averages fewer than 10 SSA/min. She has historically landed strikes on higher rates than Aldana but, again, she's only topped 51 SSL over a full fight once, and even then she finished with only 86 SSL. Chiasson is a takedown machine, though, having gone for 27 in her last five fights pulling off 11 of those for a respectable 40%+ landing rate.
This pair looks like a good opportunity to stack two fighters from the same fight, but that's entirely dependent on Aldana KO'ing her opponent once more like she's done in her last two victories. If this goes the distance (and there is a great chance that's the case) then the stack looks like a must-have. If not, I'd side with the underdog Chiasson mostly because of her grappling.
DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Ion Cutelaba, $8600 - vs. Johnny Walker
I get why Walker and Cutelaba are scheduled to open the main card. I don't quite grasp why they are on it at all, though. For a "numbered" UFC event, even more in the case of this one in which there is no actual title fight included, having Walker and Cutelaba featuring only damages the product.
Walker and Cutelaba are 1-3 and 3-1-1 respectively since the start of 2020. They are both entering this fight off first-round losses taking place earlier this year. It's cool that someone will come out of their losing ways, but that's not reason enough to schedule this fight where it's been placed if you ask me. Anyway, it should be a fun one with some strategy added into the equation as the fighting profiles are totally opposed to one another.
Cutelaba's grappling game is phenomenal, and only in three fights from May 2021 on Cutelaba went for 34 takedowns getting his foes to the mat 20 times successfully. That's absolutely incredible and an all-time mark in a one-year span. Walker, on that front, has gone 0-for-0 in the same span--or career-wise, for that matter, as he's yet to dare attempt a takedown himself in his soon-to-be nine-fight career.
Moving on to striking, though, the coin flips entirely to the opposite side but not by much--and definitely not as with grappling. Both fighters launch around 10 SSA/min with their landing rates very close at nearly 40% for Walker and 50% for Cutelaba. The latter is the better fighter on both grappling and striking, don't get that wrong, but at least Walker can put on some numbers and better performances when at that.
With both men being pretty much boom/bust plays given their finish-or-get-finished tendencies, this could go either way. Recent history doesn't speak too well about any of the two contestants, but Cutelaba has a slight edge and comes with a much higher fantasy ceiling thanks to his grappling, making him the better/safer play--while still at risk of lying a goose egg if he gets rocked, mind you.
