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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Fight Island 7: Overeem vs. Volkov on 02/06/21. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
I don't even know when was the last time the UFC held an event other than in Abu Dhabi (the mighty Fight Island) or Las Vegas. In fact, I know, and it was not very recently, which tells you all you need to know about how this shitty COVID pandemic is no bueno. But we're back in LV this weekend, which we can't complain about as the promo keeps churning out content for us MMA nuts.
Sandwiched between UFC 257 and the upcoming UFC 258 we'll enjoy a main card this Saturday headlined by a very heavy(weight) pair of men: Overeem will be fighting Volkov in the UFC Apex in a bout of former champs, the former in the very own UFC (and Strikeforce) and the latter in Bellator. Uh, oh, I can already smell those fireworks. And the card only finishes there, though, with many high-profile names such as those of Frankie Edgar and Beneil Dariush expected to step inside the Octagon in just a few days' time.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy MMA, UFC lineup picks for DraftKings for UFC Vegas 18: Overeem vs. Volkov on 02/06/21. You can check out our FanDuel MMA DFS picks as well. These DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced fighters and value picks on DraftKings. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Alexander Volkov, $8600 - vs. Alistair Overeem
While Volkov is nothing new to mixed martial arts, let's take a minute to appreciate Overeem in full. Alistair has been part of the UFC since the second-to-last day of 2011 when he debuted defeating no other than Mighty Brock Lesnar. Since that day, he's stepped into an Octagon 17 more times and four in the past two years, which is bonkers for a 40-year-old man. Oh, and he's won three of those four past fights losing only to Jairzinho Rozenstruik four seconds from the final bell.
Volkov threw his first strikes back in November 2016, went on to win four in a row, and lost his first bout in 2018. In the past three years, he's on a 3-2 record, and an actual even 2-2 if we only count his last four fights alternating Ws and Ls in those, and coming off a victory in his last one this past October when he defeated Walt Harris.
Eight years younger than Overeem, Volkov has been the shakier of the two fighters but the truth is that he's much more solid than 'Reem these days. Alistair has been knocked out in his past three losses, and although all of his wins have come via KO going back to July 2017, odds are he's the one biting the dust this weekend.
DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Cory Sandhagen, $9400 - vs. Frankie Edgar
Poor Frankie has been flopping since 2016. He was awarded the chance to face Jose Aldo to get back the gold (Edgar became a UFC champ in 2011) but all he could do was lose a decision. Three years later, in 2019, he faced Max Holloway, and once more he spent 25 minutes inside an Octagon with the fight ending in the same result for Frankie. Now on the verge of turning 40 years old, Frankie ranks 4th in the BW division and is looking for a final shot at a title.
Ahead of Edgar in the ranks, though? Cory Sandhagen, the no. 2 BW contender these days only behind Aljamain Sterling, to whom he lost last June. Sandhagen needs to oust Edgar on this one if he wants to keep his chances of becoming champ alive. He rebounded with a W against Marlon Moraes last October, sure, and is a perfect 6-0 against non-Sterling foes, but he will need to wait for Aljamain to fight Petr Yan and then see how things develop before he can get his title fight.
Edgar can do it all, both on the ground and standing, but the most worrying thing is that he has been knocked out twice in the past three years while only getting his two wins via decision. Sandhagen has been a low-volume man mostly because he hasn't needed to do a lot. He's finished four of the six foes he's defeated in the UFC, and his loss came via submission. Volkov doesn't have a ton of grappling upside, but his striking should be enough to get points and earn the W.
DraftKings MMA Women's Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Macy Chiasson, $8900 - vs. Marion Reneau
"Newcomer" vs. veteran, who you going with? Chiasson has been part of four UFC fights entering Saturday's event, which are precisely seven fewer bouts than Reneau has suffered in her own bones going back to 2015. Oh, forgot to mention that all of Chiasson's fights took place between March 2019 and February 2020, just in case, and that she is 3-1 in that span with two KOs to her name. Not bad for a start.
Reneau has been more of a bouncy bet, and she has literally stunk lately. It's almost two years to the day she won her last UFC fight (Feb. 2018) against Sara McMann via submission, and she has lost her next three via decision--all of them from July 2018 to last June. With a 1-3 record since the start of 2018 and 0-3 in her last three, this is a do-or-die fight for Reneau.
Chiasson has been successful in taking foes down in just 3 of her 12 combined career-attempts, and it is not that she abuses that side of the game. We haven't seen much of her due to her low fighting time. Reneau, on the other hand, is quite a volume fighter attempting 116 SS per fight and landing around 45 of them without making much use of takedowns either. With three Ls in a row, though, I find it too hard to bank on the 43yo vet this weekend.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Cody Stamann, $9200 - vs. Askar Askarov
This would have been an incredible fight if Stamann was entering his fourth fight instead of his ninth. I say that because both Askar and Cody started their UFC tenures without a loss, with the former been 2-1 and the latter 3-0. Things haven't gone so good for Stamann as his career progressed, though, and he is now 3-2-1 since the start of 2018 and 2-1-1 in the past two years while coming off a loss in his last fight.
Askar has yet to lose a fight, and he's won his last two both of which took place in 2020. Both men have gone the distance in all of their fights with one exception (Aljamain Sterling defeated Stamann via sub), so the most probable outcome here is a 15-minute bout going to a decision.
The two contenders here make use of both striking and grappling, with Askar attempting 11 TDs per fight and landing 2 per fight and Stamman going for 6 on average landing almost 3 of them per bout. The records aren't telling us a lot here, and the profiles are rather close although Stamann's slight advantage on striking volume and better TD-percentages are making me bet on him for Saturday's affair.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Beneil Dariush, $8000 - vs. Diego Ferreira
What a way to start a night, folks. These two have been doing it for more than seven years, and although both of them saw their first Octagon-action all the way back in 2014 it is Dariush who has been way more active with 18 fights to his name compared to Ferreira's 10. That's no problem, though, as a ten-fight resume is more than large to not consider Diego a freshman.
Ferreira has won his last six fights going back to 2016, and he finished three of those six bouts early. Dariush, not far from his foe this weekend, is 5-1 since the start of 2018 having won his last five--four of them via KO (two times) and Sub (two more). While both fighters have used grappling and gone for TDs fairly often, the truth is that Dariush is 9-of-20 in his last five while Ferreira has only landed 5-of-13 in his last five.
This fight will end early, you can pretty much count on that. Dariush has been a monster when it comes to accuracy and landing rates, connecting on 59 percent of his SS attempts in all of his five wins combined since 2018. Ferreira's 36 percent landing rate pales in comparison, and although the latter's volume is higher that also has to do with his larger time inside the cage. Give me Dariush finishing Diego early.
