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The top daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on November 4, 2023. Kyle Ringstad provides NBA DFS analysis and sleeper picks for building optimal DFS rosters.
The In-Season Tournament continues on Saturday, with one solo afternoon game and seven games set to be played tonight on the main slate. The Hornets-Pacers game should be a gold mine for fantasy as it holds the highest implied total, fastest projected pace, and the two most fantasy-friendly defenses. The Celtics-Nets showdown should also be a fun one, and we could get some serious value out of the Pelicans if Brandon Ingram were to sit again.
As always, injuries are a key factor here and we will need to monitor for news and make adjustments as we learn more. Thankfully, it doesn't appear that we have much to deal with in terms of star players in danger of missing their game tonight - the players with current injury designations are Ingram, Markelle Fultz, Nicolas Claxton, Taurean Prince, and Gary Harris.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 11/4/23. Remember to monitor NBA injury news and our awesome new NBA injuries report tool, as the slate can completely change before lineups lock at 7:00 pm EST.
I start my process with a "K-Grade" model shown below, which I've been fine-tuning for about three years. This model takes real metrics like the implied total, fantasy points per game allowed, defensive ratings, offensive ratings, and projected pace, and applies them to a model with weights. It should be used as a directional guide for the slate and I've had plenty of success with it, but stick to your own process and DFS best practices. For example, a player on a team with a "D" K-Grade could easily be the top value on the slate due to a significant uptick in minutes and usage rate.
DraftKings and FanDuel Guards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Tyrese Haliburton, IND vs. CHA – PG ($9,200 DK; $9,500 FD)
Note: Haliburton has been placed with a "questionable" tag for tonight's game. If he's out, Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard, and T.J. McConnell are all firmly in play as value darts.
Tyrese Haliburton is my favorite high-priced guard option on the slate tonight. The Pacers' emerging star hasn't shot the ball well this season (43.5% FG%, 26.9% 3PT %), but he's still averaging 48.3 DK points per game thanks to his ability to put up Stockton-like assist numbers. He's averaging 12.5 assists per game, which is simply astonishing. The Pacers get one of the friendliest matchups on the board tonight against the Hornets, a team that's allowing the tenth-most fantasy points per game overall and the most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards. They're also recording the most turnovers per game allowed to opposing point guards, which is important because Hali has racked up five steals through four contests.
Zach LaVine, CHI vs. DEN – SG/SF ($7,600 DK; $7,400 FD)
The former dunk contest champion Zach LaVine is a member of the Bulls, who rank dead last in my K-Grades model shown above. This is an example where we are going to disregard those rankings, because even though the matchup is brutal against the defending champion Nuggets, LaVine is far too cheap for his role and expected production. He's averaging just under 1.00 FPTS/min, but we know he has a ceiling that is not attainable by any players in this mid-$7,000 price range. He already has a 59.5 DK point game under his belt, when he torched the Pistons for 51 real-life points on 10/28.
Mike Conley, MIN vs. UTA – PG ($4,800 DK; $5,300 FD)
There isn't much value present on this slate at the moment, so we have to take what we can get. Mike Conley is a lock for around 28 minutes tonight, and factoring in his 0.88 FPTS/min gives him a projection of about 25 DK points. That would be over the 5x value we're looking for, but there's plenty of upside for more in this matchup. The Jazz rank 23rd in defensive rating and allow the most fantasy points per game to opposing teams this season.
Others to consider: Trae Young, Cole Anthony, Dillon Brooks, Jalen Green, Brandon Ingram
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DraftKings and FanDuel Forwards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Jayson Tatum, BOS vs. BKN – SF/PF ($10,300 DK; $10,300 FD)
Jayson Tatum is the high-salary player I'm targeting in lineups tonight. As you can see in the K-Grade table above, the Celtics are the #1 team to target on this slate for daily fantasy purposes. Why wouldn't we want to get to the best (and most productive) player on the team? Tatum is averaging 50.4 DK points per game through four contests, with one 60.75 DK point game to his name already and only one let-down performance against the stifling defense of the Miami Heat. The Nets are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards, and I'm planting my flag on Tatum to cook them tonight.
Paolo Banchero, ORL vs. LAL – SF/PF ($7,600 DK; $7,700 FD)
Paolo Banchero hasn't had a great start to the season, but that means his salary is depressed, and that's something we can take advantage of. The second-year forward put up a monster 56.25 DK point game on Thursday, torching the Jazz with an impressive 30/9/5/2/3 line over 36 minutes. He'll likely have a similar situation as he did on Thursday as Wendell Carter Jr. and Gary Harris have already been ruled out, and Markelle Fultz is questionable to suit up. The Lakers are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing PFs, rating out as the second-best PF matchup on the slate (behind Pelicans PFs against the Hawks).
Jaden McDaniels, MIN vs. UTA – SF/PF ($4,400 DK; $5,000 FD)
This is a salary we can all get behind. Jaden McDaniels had an outside claim at Defensive Player of the Year last season, and his price is where it's at because he has had a minute limit to start the season. He has still reached or exceeded value at his current salary over his first two games, despite playing just 24 and 21 minutes. I believe we continue to see his minutes ramp up, and if he can play for at least 25 minutes in this matchup, he has a great chance to blow his salary out of the water.
Others to consider: Kristaps Porzingis, Zion Williamson, Cam Reddish, Moritz Wagner, Naz Reid, Jalen Johnson, Zion Williamson
DraftKings and FanDuel Centers - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Myles Turner, IND vs. CHA – C ($6,700 DK; $7,600 FD)
Myles Turner might be one of the more unappealing players to select in daily fantasy basketball, but that doesn't mean he can't be valuable from time to time. Turner put up his third 40+ DK point game of the year last night, going for a season-high 46.75 DK points against a stout Cavaliers frontcourt. He's not likely to score 27 real-life points often, but he should play around 30 minutes every night, and he gets one of the best center matchups on the board tonight. The Hornets allow the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing centers, and they hold the sixth-worst team defensive rating in the league.
Others to consider: Mark Williams, Karl-Anthony Towns, Nikola Vucevic
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