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We're back at it on a Monday after a great weekend of baseball. I’ve been red hot in DFS and player props, so let’s see if we can keep that running into my four articles this week. Pitching on tonight’s slate will be tough as nothing stands out. I will be mixing and matching tonight to not over-commit on one arm. It’s the perfect opportunity to look at ownership tonight and play the arms with a ton of upside at low ownership.
I will cover the twelve-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. in this article. I love tonight's slate from a game theory perspective. The Braves are heading into Coors Field facing a lefty in Austin Gomber. We may see the highest ownership of the season in the next few days, with the league's best offense heading into the best-hitting ballpark in the big leagues. It’s hard to recommend a fade here, but if you are trying to win a slate, it’s the right move, and I will likely do it. Gulp. I will talk about potential pivots with some upside to match the Braves tonight.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 8/28/2023 and the slate locking at 7:05 p.m. ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. Monitoring injury news and today's MLB starting lineups is also essential. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks! Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
I have decided to post my charts throughout the article that I have been using for DFS. I want to quickly explain the color coding and bolding so you can understand better. That is an elite play if you see bold capital letters and green. Bold letters with green are a great play. Bold letters with yellow is a good play. Bold letters with white are to be used to round out lineups. Letters that are not bold are to be used in MME only for player pools or to round out stacks in a single entry.
Kevin Gausman, TOR vs. WAS ($11,200 DK, $10,900 FD)
Pitching on this slate is ugly. To be honest with you all, there isn’t one single arm that I am sold on for tonight’s slate. My top option at the top of the board would be Kevin Gausman. I will not be forcing him into any lineups I build tonight. I will be building my bats first and then figuring my pitching out from there. This is not how I usually construct, but tonight’s slate calls for a different way to build.
Gausman enters today's start with a 3.17 SIERA, 31.7% K%, 12.8% SwStr%, 6.2% BB%, and 42.9% GB%. He has been the model of consistency all season as he averages 22.0 DraftKings points a start. He’s even better on FanDuel, as he is third in baseball with 17 quality starts. In the second half of the season, Gausman owns a 3.53 SIERA, 28.8% K%, and a 12.9% SwStr%. The projected Nationals lineup owns a 23.7% K% over the last 30 days, giving Gausman the upside he needs to make him out SP1 on tonight’s slate.
Xzavion Curry, CLE at. MIN ($5,700 DK, $6,000 FD)
I want to start by saying this play is not for the faint of heart, but If you are looking to stack the Braves at Coors Field, you will have to find value on the mound. I do not know if I will play Curry today, but this is my top punt option if I full-stack the Braves. On the season, Curry has a 4.99 SIERA, 16.6% K%, 9.6% SwStr%, 6.6% BB%, and 28.5% GB%. Since the break, Curry has had a 5.39 SIERA, 18.0% K%, and a 10.2% SwStr%.
None of these numbers jump off the page, but as I said, if you’re looking to stack the Braves in Coors Field, you have to get weird somehow. The matchup here is intriguing. Since the break, the Twins have had a 29.4% K% against right-hand pitching. Curry has a much better upside with strikeouts against left-hand hitters, as he has a 24.3% K% against the split over the last 30 days. The Braves will send four lefties to the plate with a 25% K% or higher, giving Curry the upside to get you 15-20 points. If the Braves go off in Coors, that will be more than enough to win you a slate.
Also consider: Grayson Rodriguez, Blake Snell, Bryce Elder, Kyle Harrison
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Brandon Belt - 1B, TOR vs. Josiah Gray ($3,700 DK, $2,800 FD)
Left-handed hitters have demolished Josiah Gray over the last 30 days. This has been an issue for him in his previous seasons, and I’m willing to take the small sample size and attack it. He has a .442 wOBA, .357 ISO, and a 70.0% hard hit in his last 30 plate appearances against left-hand hitters. Belt is the best lefty in this Blue Jays lineup. Over his previous 30 plate appearances against right-hand pitching, Belt has a 218 wRC+, .486 wOBA, and .760 SLG. On the season, he has a 143 wRC+, .377 wOBA, and a .496 SLG against the split.
Dylan Moore - 2B/SS/OF, ATL vs. David Peterson ($3,300 DK, $2,400 FD)
Dylan Moore gets an elite matchup against Kyle Muller, who will be tonight's bulk reliever for the Oakland Athletics. Over the last 30 days, Muller holds a .380 wOBA, .250 ISO, and a 69.2% hard hit. Since the break against left-hand pitching, Moore has a 218 wRC+, .480 wOBA, and a .788 SLG. If you are fading the Braves, Moore and the Mariners may be the best spot here tonight. The Braves and Padres will get most of the ownership, making the Mariners an elite play.
Nathaniel Lowe - 1B, TEX vs. Tylor Megill ($4,600 DK, $3,300 FD)
I have decided to write up Nathaniel Lowe here for the Rangers, but I could have also very quickly written up Corey Seager here. I love both the lefties here in this spot against Tyler Megill, but the salary of Lowe is a bit more intriguing to me. Megill, over the last 30 days, has a .493 wOBA, .333 ISO, and a 62.9% hard hit against left-handed batters. Lowe has 143 wRC+, .380 wOBA, and a .493 SLG on the season. Over his last 40 plate appearances against right-hand pitching, Lowe has 189 wRC+, .447 wOBA, and a .563 SLG.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Anthony Santander - 1B/OF, BAL vs. Michael Kopech ($4,200 DK, $3,500 FD)
Anthony Santander and the Baltimore Orioles get an elite matchup tonight against Michael Kopech. Kopech has allowed 28 home runs on the season. Over the last 30 days, he has a .394 wOBA, .288 ISO, and a 44.2% hard hit against left-hand hitters. Since the break, Santander has a 138 wRC+, .370 wOBA, and a .561 SLG against right-hand pitching. At the moment, he is scorching hot. Over his last 15 plate appearances against right-hand pitching, Santander has a 282 wRC+, .577 wOBA, and a 1.000 SLG.
Alex Verdugo - OF, BOS vs. Cristian Javier ($4,500 DK, $3,300 FD)
Alex Verdugo has turned it on since being moved to the lead-off role for the Red Sox. Over that span against right-hand pitching, Verdugo has a 175 wRC+, .433 wOBA, and a .638 SLG. His opponent, Cristian Javier, has had issues against lefties all season. He has a .359 wOBA, .204 ISO, and a 40.3% hard-hit rate against the split this season. Over his last 30 days, he has a .374 wOBA, .236 ISO, and a 50.0% hard hit. If Devers is back in the lineup, I like this stack tonight. If not, Verdugo is a fantastic one-off.
Marcell Ozuna - OF, ATL vs. Austin Gomber ($5,100 DK, $3,700 FD)
The Braves head to Coors Field, and it will be the season’s biggest chalk. The game theory in me says to fade this team every game in Coors, but I also have a rule that I stack the Braves every time they face a lefty. They now get Austin Gomber in Coors Field. I have no idea what I’m going to do, but Marcell Ozuna is an elite play. Since the break, he has a 213 wRC+, .490 wOBA, and a .769 SLG against left-hand pitching. Gomber has a .365 wOBA, .173 ISO, and a 50.7% hard hit against right-hand hitters over the last 30 days.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
1. Seattle Mariners vs. Kyle Muller
Favorite Plays: Dylan Moore, Julio Rodriguez, Jose Caballero, Teoscar Hernandez, Ty France
2. Atlanta Braves vs. Austin Gomber
Favorite Plays: Marcell Ozuna, Orlando Arcia, Sean Murphy, Matt Olson, Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley
3. San Diego Padres vs. Adam Wainwright
Favorite Plays: Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, Ha-Seong Kim
4. Baltimore Orioles vs. Michael Koepech
Favorite Plays: Anthony Santander, Gunnar Henderson, Ryan Mountcastle, Cedric Mullins
5. Toronto Blue Jays (Lefties) vs. Josiah Gray
Favorite Plays: Brandon Belt, Daulton Varsho, Cavan Biggio
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