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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on May 22, 2023. Casey Wilson's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Happy Monday, everyone. I hope you had a great weekend filled with baseball. We welcome the work week back with a seven-game slate. Today's slate has two clear-cut pitching options in great matchups. It will be hard to stray away from the two options I list below, but we can click on a couple of others. I will start my lineups with those two tonight and figure out bats from there.
Bats are less of a priority tonight. Two stacks tonight stand out as the top option for me. I will mix and match them in three entry-max lineups with my pitching options. We also have Coors Field on the slate tonight with good hitting conditions and a washed-up pitcher on the bump for Colorado. I will fully stack the top three stacks I list in the article with my pitching options and fill the rest of my lineup out from there.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 5/22/2023 and the slate locking at 7:20 pm ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. Monitoring injury news and today's MLB starting lineups is also essential. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks! Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Pitching on today's slate seems pretty clear-cut to me. I will pair the two options I will list below in most of the lineups I will play tonight on DraftKings. I will include a couple more options, but they are secondary.
Luis Castillo, SEA vs. OAK ($9,200 DK, $10,500 FD)
Luis Castillo and the Seattle Mariners host the Oakland Athletics at T-Mobile Park. Castillo has had trouble keeping the ball in the yard in his last four starts. He has allowed six home runs, including three, in his previous start against the Red Sox at Fenway. He has faced the Cardinals, Blue Jays, Astros, Rangers, and the Red Sox in his last five starts. On average, the teams above have a 107 wRC+ and a 21.8% K against right-hand pitching. His opponent tonight, the Oakland A's, have an 87 wRC+ and a 26.2% K. If there was ever a get-right spot for Castillo, this is it.
Castillo has a 2-2 record with a 3.40 SIERA, 27.8% K, 13.9% SwStr, and a 5.3% BB. If we look at his underlying numbers, he is still ace caliber. The 13.9% SwStr is elite, and although the 27.8% K is great, the SwStr tells me it should be higher. The most attractive thing here is his salary on DraftKings in this matchup. $9,200 for an ace pitching against the A's is too cheap. Castillo is my SP1 in cash and tournaments tonight.
Bailey Ober, MIN vs. SF ($8,100 DK, $10,300 FD)
Bailey Ober gets a matchup tonight against the Giants in the friendly confines of Target Field. Ober has been outstanding this season. He has scored over 19.1 DraftKings points in four of his five starts. He has pitched to a 3-0 record, 4.33 SIERA, 24.1% K, 12.0% SwStr, and a 6.0% BB. He does have a 1.78 ERA which does concern me a bit, knowing there is some negative regression coming. I have stacked against him the last two slates banking on it to no prevail, so it's time for me to jump on board the Ober train. Full disclosure I will probably have a hedge stack tonight against him.
The Giants own a 24.8% K against right-hand pitching this season. That mark is the fifth worst in baseball. They do hold a 110 wRC+. There is risk here for Ober, but there is immense upside with the strikeouts in this matchup that I'm willing to take the shot on him.
Also consider: Cristian Javier, Tanner Houck, Jaime Barria (FanDuel only)
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Carlos Correa - SS, MIN vs. Sean Manaea ($4,300 DK, $2,900 FD)
Correa will face Sean Manaea and the Giants' bullpen tonight. Manaea leads the slate with a 2.60 HR/9. He has a .417 wOBA, .351 ISO, and a 49.2% hard hit against righties this season. Correa has a .351 wOBA, .212 ISO, and a 40.7% hard hit against lefties. He is also hitting righties to a .282 wOBA, .174 ISO, and a 38.9% hard hit which will fair well when the Giants bullpen takes over. Their bullpen also leads baseball with a 1.42 HR/9. I expect some home runs from the twins here tonight.
Alex Kirilloff - 1B, MIN vs. Sean Manaea ($3,400 DK, $3,200 FD)
We will stay in the same game with the Twins' three-hole hitter Alex Kirlloff. As I stated above, this will be a bulk inning role out of Manaea, but the Twins will face some right-handed pitchers. Kirlloff has been tremendous this year against both splits. He has a .391 wOBA, .375 ISO, and a 60.0% hard hit in a small sample size against lefties this season. Against righties, he has a .471 wOBA, .265 ISO, and a 53.8 % hard hit. He should come in lower owned being a lefty against Manaea, but I love him tonight at that price.
Tom Murphy - C, SEA vs. Kyle Muller ($2,500 DK, $2,300 FD)
Tom Murphy has been fantastic against lefties in his platoon with Cal Raleigh this season. Murphy has a .277 wOBA, .200 ISO, and a 50.0% hard hit against lefties this season. He gets a great matchup here with Kyle Muller, who struggles against his split. Murphy also has a 50.0% FB which is excellent for his matchup with Muller, a heavy ground ball pitcher.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Teoscar Hernandez- OF, SEA vs. Kyle Muller ($3,600 DK, $2,800 FD)
TeOscar Hernandez faces Kyle Muller and an awful Oakland bullpen. If you have read my articles on RotoBaller this season, you know how I feel about Hernandez when he faces a lefty. This is one of the best hitters in baseball against left-hand pitchers. He owns a .332 wOBA, .333 ISO, and a 40.0% hard hit. Muller's only strength is keeping the ball on the ground. Hernandez has a 40.0% FB, negating Mullers ground ball rate.
Ronald Acuna - OF, ATL vs. Gavin Stone ($6,500 DK, $4,700 FD)
Acuna is expensive on both sites but is the clear-cut MVP favorite this season. He's hitting .344 with 11 HR, 28 RBI, 44 R, and 18 SB. He has a .427 wOBA, .256 ISO, and a 46.3 % hard hit against right-hand pitching this season. Gavin Stone has shown reverse splits in his limited big-league action as well. He has a 6.63 SIERA, 4.3% K, and an 8.7% BB. He has allowed a .486 wOBA, .222 ISO, and a 37.5% hard hit to righties. I think Acuna does some damage tonight and pays off his hefty price tag.
Riley Greene- OF, DET vs. Brady Singer ($4,700 DK, $3,000 FD)
The Detroit Tigers and Riley Greene will get a favorable matchup tonight against Brady Singer. Singer has struggled this year, allowing a 4.58 SIERA, 1.38 HR/9, and a 7.8% BB. He is only striking out hitters at a 19.4% clip, and I expect him to get some ownership tonight. The Tigers make for some significant leverage, and Riley Greene leads them. Greene has a .345 wOBA, .150 ISO, and a 46.7% hard hit this season. Kauffman has been very friendly to hitters in the early going as well. I love some leverage on the Tiger bats tonight.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
1. Seattle Mariners vs. Kyle Muller
The first obvious choice for a stack here is the Seattle Mariners facing Kyle Muller and the A's bullpen. Muller is 1-3 with a 5.32 SIERA, 14.6% K, and a 10.2% BB. He is second on today's slate with a 1.50 HR/9. With these high walk and home run rates, you can see why it immediately becomes a great spot to stack. Oakland's bullpen has been the worst in baseball, surrendering a 5.27 SIERA and a 1.39 HR/9. They have given up 146 runs so far this season. The next closest is the San Francisco Giants at 111.
Muller is more susceptible to right-hand batters as he has a .403 wOBA, .196 ISO, and a 48.3% hard hit against the split. He does own a 48.3% GB, so we need to find bats that hit the ball in the air. The Mariners are full of that, as they have a 37.5% FB as a team. I love the Mariners here tonight.
Favorite Plays: Teoscar Hernandez, Julio Rodriguez, Tom Murphy, Eugenio Suarez, Ty France
2. Minnesota Twins vs. Sean Manaea
The Twins will face Sean Manaea at home tonight. Manaea leads the slate with a 2.60 HR/9. He is 1-2 with a 4.50 SIERA, 25.2% K, and a 12.2% BB. Manaea is getting hit hard by both lefties and righties, and when he pitches, it is more of a bullpen game with an opener, so I don't prefer a split here. He has a .417 wOBA, .351 ISO, and a 49.2% hard hit against righties. Against lefties, he has a .365 wOBA, .250 ISO, and a 50.0% hard hit. His only strength is striking guys out, so being able to find guys that put the ball in play would be my primary focus. The Giants' bullpen has a 3.96 SIERA. They have a 1.42 HR/9 which leads baseball, and as mentioned above, they have given up 111 runs which are second in baseball. The Twins and Mariners are my clear top two options tonight.
Favorite Plays: Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Alex Kirilloff, Joey Gallo, Edouard Julien
Also Consider:
3. Miami Marlins vs. Chase Anderson
4. Atlanta Braves vs. Gavin Stone
5. Detroit Tigers vs. Brady Singer (Mini, Value Stacks)
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